Edit this nicely made bracket (thanks LonelyMargarita!), put it on an image hosting site, and PM it to me before the MSL Ro16 Week1 next Thursday (10/11). I am only considering ones I get via PM, so even if you post it here, you must PM your official entry to me.
If someone gets the bracket completely right, you will get $100 via PokerStars. This doesn't happen often (actually nobody has ever gotten one entirely right), so kudos to you if you make it happen.
The most accurate bracket will be determined this way: Ro16 - 1 point Ro8 - 2 points Semis - 4 points 3rd/4th - 4 points Finals - 8 points
The most accurate will get fame and fortune and the extremely coveted mensrea No-Prize.
The chance that the most probable outcome will actually happen is probably no more than 0.05% (assuming each match has a player who should win 60% of the time in that match-up, which is generous). Good luck betting. >_<
On October 07 2007 13:09 to miss the mark wrote: Uhhh, I just uploaded it, but I think me and SonuvBob have the same bracket . 50$ each? :D + Show Spoiler +
@ to miss the mark But, my dear to miss the mark, you have absolutely the same bracket like me. Still 50$ or maybe even less if someone else joins the club.
if everyone has an even chance of winning each elim match, then the probability of you getting it right is 1/2^15, which works out to be something like 0.003% or something ridiculously small like that
as much as i would LOVE for that to happen Xellos getting that far based on his current uber-long slump is NOT happening but live the dream man, live the dream.
oooh man all of these brackets make me laugh so hard, freaking Savior BISU finals again wtf, let me post my impossible one.
Not to derail the discussion, but is sc2.org the best place to find VOD's of these matches? I've got SC on the brain after spending days with Tasteless, and would like to spectate this event if possible.
I really hope this bracket is wrong. I think I picked defensively so that if the players I liked lost, I could at least say "well at least I saw it coming."
On October 11 2007 09:09 djWHEAT wrote: Not to derail the discussion, but is sc2.org the best place to find VOD's of these matches? I've got SC on the brain after spending days with Tasteless, and would like to spectate this event if possible.
I don't quite get how everyone is so surprised by how this bracket contest turned out.
If we assume that each player has a 50% chance to win, the odds of getting all 5 bets right are 1/32 => participants expected to make it through after 5 bets : 196 / 32 = 6.
On October 19 2007 00:48 ToT)SiLeNcE( wrote: I don't quite get how everyone is so surprised by how this bracket contest turned out.
If we assume that each player has a 50% chance to win, the odds of getting all 5 bets right are 1/32 => participants expected to make it through after 5 bets : 196 / 32 = 6.
Ok now only 2 made it, but you get my point.
yeah well each player dont have 50% chance to win. For example considering his shape lately I'd say Free had more like 70 or 80% chance of winning over Lomo. So its really not that simple.
On October 19 2007 00:48 ToT)SiLeNcE( wrote: I don't quite get how everyone is so surprised by how this bracket contest turned out.
If we assume that each player has a 50% chance to win, the odds of getting all 5 bets right are 1/32 => participants expected to make it through after 5 bets : 196 / 32 = 6.
Ok now only 2 made it, but you get my point.
yeah well each player dont have 50% chance to win. For example considering his shape lately I'd say Free had more like 70 or 80% chance of winning over Lomo. So its really not that simple.
Yes I agree, but a players chance to win is generally a LOT closer to 50/50 then people realize. Progamers are very very close to one another nowadays. An objective observer cannot fail to notice the amount of "upsets" in modern pro starcraft. But a lot of people get blinded by their fanship. Basically the current proleague liquibet is more of a lottery than anything else.
Of course you can always say "oh he predicted it right, he must have awesome prediction skills" _AFTERWARDS_ but statistically someone HAS to make the right predictions. I really think statistics are something that the current progaming community fails to be aware of. I'm sure that, if someone went through the work to do some illustrative plots of statistical expectation vs. results for pro games and took a large enough number of games into account it would totally back up what I'm saying.
Also, in the RO16 there were quite a few matches in which there was no clear favourite.
On October 19 2007 00:48 ToT)SiLeNcE( wrote: I don't quite get how everyone is so surprised by how this bracket contest turned out.
If we assume that each player has a 50% chance to win, the odds of getting all 5 bets right are 1/32 => participants expected to make it through after 5 bets : 196 / 32 = 6.
Ok now only 2 made it, but you get my point.
yeah well each player dont have 50% chance to win. For example considering his shape lately I'd say Free had more like 70 or 80% chance of winning over Lomo. So its really not that simple.
Yes I agree, but a players chance to win is generally a LOT closer to 50/50 then people realize. Progamers are very very close to one another nowadays. An objective observer cannot fail to notice the amount of "upsets" in modern pro starcraft. But a lot of people get blinded by their fanship. Basically the current proleague liquibet is more of a lottery than anything else.
Of course you can always say "oh he predicted it right, he must have awesome prediction skills" _AFTERWARDS_ but statistically someone HAS to make the right predictions. I really think statistics are something that the current progaming community fails to be aware of. I'm sure that, if someone went through the work to do some illustrative plots of statistical expectation vs. results for pro games and took a large enough number of games into account it would totally back up what I'm saying.
Also, in the RO16 there were quite a few matches in which there was no clear favourite.
Statistics are not enough to make predictions. There are other things to take into account like how many leagues are the players currently playing in, do the players have hot streaks or cold streaks, what practice partners did he have before the match, what are the styles of the players, what styles does the map encourage, etc. This info combined with a good look at relevant statistics can give enough info for good predictions. We can't ever know the actual percent chance a player had to win a match because we can't run the match over and over again. Looking at a bunch of different previous matches in order to predict the result of one match will always be significantly inaccurate, although it can be somewhat helpful as I said above.
Top liquibetters get 60-65% of the points. And I doubt anyone even researches matches as much as they possibly could. If there was big money involved, I'm sure people could hit 70%. But even hitting 60-65% would be impossible to maintain if players rarely ever have a >60% chance of winning.
Anyway, my main point is that predicting matches definitely isn't a useless exercise. There are still enough lopsided progaming matches and enough info available to predict them.
fuck, have i been the only one that picked canata over xellos? well, i got decently close with my wild predicitions (damn oov too). How many other people got only 2 wrong?
On October 21 2007 04:10 Hot_Bid wrote: cujo is fucked though, the only pick he got wrong in the first round was july > mania and he picked july to win the whole thing
EPT
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