EPTFlash To Win (FTW) vs Soma odds calculator - Page 2
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True_Spike
Poland3429 Posts
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LocoBolon
Argentina244 Posts
And the results also.. put 3 numbers together and come to the conclusion he has 37% of winning what.. a single game? the series? Come on. Do you realize the man is 6-0 with random race in offline tournaments so far?  On October 29 2020 16:52 kogeT wrote: Well said, I support that view. I give a slight edge for Flash to win the whole thing. I do agree with everything these two man said with the exception that maybe, just maybe, it would be a little more than "slight", but we will see and that's the best part | ||
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neptunusfisk
2286 Posts
On October 31 2020 03:14 LocoBolon wrote: I mean its a cute work and all and a very fun idea but no, I'm sorry, putting numbers so roughly like that to calculate the chances for the Genius of Genius to win a bo7 series with random race is very very silly. It should be a little more complicated than that... Showing strong reading comprehension here! If you re-read it you will find the initial aim to calculate how many times he rolls terran, and then from that multiplication with various winrates | ||
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sntct
100 Posts
On October 29 2020 11:19 Lorch wrote: I don't think the number of terran games he gets is a good indicator of his Chance of winning. 20% is not the odds of beating Soma as P or Z. + Show Spoiler + First and foremost, Soma can easily beat Flash's T. He is easily a Top two zerg atm and we have to keep in mind that Flash Has to split his Practice TIME between three races. That being said, Flash is probably the most Genius tournament player we have Ever seen in any eSport period. He can win a game on any map with any race against anybody. He will literally have multiple plans for every race on every map and he Has the distinct advantage of knowing his opponents race from the First second of each match, while Soma Has to open in a very General Way until he scouts the race. Flash can Practice easily for Soma against other Top Zergs, but Soma can't really Practice for Flash. He can Practice vs all races on all the maps, and each race Has Great players to play against, but there is no actual random player to Practice with. Flash doesnt play P or Z like a zerg or Protoss would and given that he Has the deepest understanding of starcraft out of everyone WhO Ever played it, he will craft strategies that can beat Soma in a single game. Obviously Flash would loose vs Soma if they were to play 100 games of each matchup, but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation. Sorry guys but Flash getting Terran is likely the single greatest factor in influencing the outcome of the series. | ||
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Zaibakk
101 Posts
With my numbers I get a 40% Flash / 60% Soma, which is fair enough. Anyway, yes, T rolls are the biggest factor. If Flash rolls 4 T it's gg. If Flash rolls 3 T he would have to win 1 game out of 4 with P/Z, which is not easy but not impossible. If Flash rolls 2 T (most likely) he would have a hard time at winning those 2 out of 5 remaining games. If Flash rolls 1 T he is basically dead (3/6 games to win with P/Z, no way). Anyway, I hope Flash rolls the expected value (2 T) because I want to see him with P/Z, what would be the point of he rolling and winning with T? If I was Flash I would train expecially the ZvZ matchup, while PvZ he can only try fancy stuff because in a standard game he will be destroyed. See ya! | ||
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Djabanete
United States2786 Posts
It seems not to be working correctly though...? Depending on the input, it sometimes calculates Flash's chance to win as being lower than 100%. | ||
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whaski
Finland577 Posts
On November 01 2020 02:06 sntct wrote: Sorry guys but Flash getting Terran is likely the single greatest factor in influencing the outcome of the series. You are listing all of the advantages of Random - which are well known. The disadvantage is: playing ZvZ and PvZ against Soma, and the net result is that in both matchups Flash is significantly unfavored no matter the number of games, or the strategies he uses. Realistically, if SKT Telecom Hyuk came back out of retirement with a few weeks of practice and played a best of 7 against Flash's P/Z (random between the 2), Hyuk would be favored and possibly even destroy him. Huyk streams and loses to Lights P and if a remember correctly Larva has beaten Hyuk in tvz so... | ||
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Djabanete
United States2786 Posts
On November 01 2020 06:59 whaski wrote: Huyk streams and loses to Lights P and if a remember correctly Larva has beaten Hyuk in tvz so... OK but I mean someone like Snow or even Rush would be sure to beat Flash's P/Z if they were in form (practicing for a big tournament or something). | ||
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MinixTheNerd
200 Posts
There is also that psychologic factor that comes to play when it comes to playing Flash's random. Soma probably knows there is a 1 in 3 chance that he is dead as soon as the game start, and that's for every game. That's got to be eating away at him throughout the series especially for someone who is still relatively inexperienced. | ||
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Lorch
Germany3691 Posts
On November 01 2020 08:09 Djabanete wrote: OK but I mean someone like Snow or even Rush would be sure to beat Flash's P/Z if they were in form (practicing for a big tournament or something). I see what you did there :D sntc, we haven't even seen Flash play a single ZvZ/PvZ. If you really think he will loose every game he doesn't get terran in, then you are severly underestimating the best preperation BoX player of all time, alongside those "well known" random advantages. If it were Effort in a finals I'd agree with you, but I guess we'll see in a few hours  | ||
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Pangpootata
1838 Posts
And I think your estimations of Flash's chances of winning as Z or P are way lower then actuality, given that he currently boasts a 100% winrate in those 2 races | ||
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sntct
100 Posts
Soma can expect Flash's offrace strategies to consist of the following: 1) all in builds (less probable as they can be countered by 9 pool) 2) mid game timing attacks. | ||
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sntct
100 Posts
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sntct
100 Posts
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Lorch
Germany3691 Posts
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sntct
100 Posts
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sntct
100 Posts
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Djabanete
United States2786 Posts
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Edpayasugo
United Kingdom2217 Posts
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sntct
100 Posts
Is anyone going to bet on Larva vs Queen? | ||
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