• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 16:57
CEST 22:57
KST 05:57
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
RSL Season 1 - Final Week6[ASL19] Finals Recap: Standing Tall10HomeStory Cup 27 - Info & Preview18Classic wins Code S Season 2 (2025)16Code S RO4 & Finals Preview: herO, Rogue, Classic, GuMiho0
Community News
Firefly given lifetime ban by ESIC following match-fixing investigation17$25,000 Streamerzone StarCraft Pro Series announced7Weekly Cups (June 30 - July 6): Classic Doubles7[BSL20] Non-Korean Championship 4x BSL + 4x China10Flash Announces Hiatus From ASL73
StarCraft 2
General
The GOAT ranking of GOAT rankings RSL Revival patreon money discussion thread Weekly Cups (June 30 - July 6): Classic Doubles Server Blocker RSL Season 1 - Final Week
Tourneys
RSL: Revival, a new crowdfunded tournament series FEL Cracov 2025 (July 27) - $8000 live event $5,100+ SEL Season 2 Championship (SC: Evo) $25,000 Streamerzone StarCraft Pro Series announced Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament
Strategy
How did i lose this ZvP, whats the proper response Simple Questions Simple Answers
Custom Maps
External Content
Mutation # 481 Fear and Lava Mutation # 480 Moths to the Flame Mutation # 479 Worn Out Welcome Mutation # 478 Instant Karma
Brood War
General
Flash Announces Hiatus From ASL BW General Discussion A cwal.gg Extension - Easily keep track of anyone Script to open stream directly using middle click ASL20 Preliminary Maps
Tourneys
2025 ACS Season 2 Qualifier [Megathread] Daily Proleagues Small VOD Thread 2.0 Last Minute Live-Report Thread Resource!
Strategy
Simple Questions, Simple Answers I am doing this better than progamers do.
Other Games
General Games
Path of Exile Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread CCLP - Command & Conquer League Project The PlayStation 5 Nintendo Switch Thread
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread Vanilla Mini Mafia
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine The Accidental Video Game Porn Archive Stop Killing Games - European Citizens Initiative
Fan Clubs
SKT1 Classic Fan Club! Maru Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! [Manga] One Piece Anime Discussion Thread [\m/] Heavy Metal Thread
Sports
2024 - 2025 Football Thread Formula 1 Discussion NBA General Discussion TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 NHL Playoffs 2024
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
Men Take Risks, Women Win Ga…
TrAiDoS
momentary artworks from des…
tankgirl
from making sc maps to makin…
Husyelt
StarCraft improvement
iopq
Trip to the Zoo
micronesia
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 660 users

Flash To Win (FTW) vs Soma odds calculator

Forum Index > BW General
Post a Reply
1 2 Next All
2sxy4u_BG
Profile Joined October 2020
1 Post
October 28 2020 22:09 GMT
#1
Hey there

This post was inspired by SayianSC's latest video on a game between Flash and Soma, where at some point he said that it will be useful to have the chances for Flash to get Terran for example 2,3 or 4 times in his upcoming bo7 against Soma in Sunday's ASL.

Initially I went for the task with the intention to create a really simple excel table using binomial distribution with the chances for him getting respectfully 0 to 7 times terran in the upcoming matchup. I'm attaching a screenshot of the initial table:

[image loading]

After that I communicated it to my girlfriend which excels in excel to say the least and she went even further (tbh she helped with the initial table as well :D). We've added additional functionality, where based on the expected winrate of his matchups we get the general chance for him to win the whole series. Additionally, we've added the option to dynamically set the results of the matches during the series and be able to see the expected chance for him to win at the end.

Here's a screenshot of the final result done by her :D

[image loading]

In the final version, you can do the following:

  • Get the chance for Flash (a random player) get terran (a specific race) atleast X times in Y games
  • Set the expected winrate based on his race and get the general expected winrate from the series*
  • The chances of Flash to win the series by game X, which dynamically updates after you input the score from the games


We (she)'ve made also a google sheets copy of the table at this adress - you can download it as a local copy and play with the numbers.

I hope someone finds this interesting and that you get less jealous than I'm proud of her :D

If you have any recommendations (I have some ideas on my own) let us know in the comments. Thanks for your time.

*The default winrates that I've used are 70% for Flash's T (as his latest ASL TvZ winrate) and 20% for his P and Z, based on Soma's record of 80% winrate in ASL in the matchups. To be honest, that's not the fairest representation (it would've been better if we had accurate stats for Flash's other matchups and also to use put as a % a function of his and Soma's winrate) - I'd definetely go for something like 70/35/35 which gives Flash 47% chance to win (that makes me pretty happy, as I'm actually rooting for him in the series - as he is God. Q.E.D)
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10149 Posts
October 28 2020 22:42 GMT
#2
My name has literally been summoned through this post
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
BisuDagger
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Bisutopia19230 Posts
October 28 2020 22:51 GMT
#3
Did someone just summon my favorite buddy! + Show Spoiler +
Or is that blind-rawr. Gotta keep an eye on these KT peeps.
ModeratorFormer Afreeca Starleague Caster: http://afreeca.tv/ASL2ENG2
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10149 Posts
October 28 2020 23:14 GMT
#4
On October 29 2020 07:51 BisuDagger wrote:
Did someone just summon my favorite buddy! + Show Spoiler +
Or is that blind-rawr. Gotta keep an eye on these KT peeps.

FlaShDaggerFTW
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
sntct
Profile Joined February 2018
100 Posts
October 28 2020 23:21 GMT
#5
Watching Flash try to win a ZvZ or PvZ against Soma is going to be comical.

2 words: Nine Pool.
kaspa84
Profile Joined July 2016
Brazil169 Posts
October 29 2020 00:22 GMT
#6
20%? Comical? People should not underestimate God.
Caihead
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada8550 Posts
October 29 2020 01:10 GMT
#7
Flash will win 100% of his P and Z games to keep his win rate record, duh.

For reals though, him getting ZvZ will probably be a 45-55 split in Soma's favour since that's definitely not a match up he would have that much time to prepare for. Random into PvZ might be the cheesiest match up ever. I will give flash the slight edge over all though statistically speaking.

The order of him getting the races will matter a lot from a psychological perspective, if Flash can score some early wins and be up 2-0 or 2-1 he can afford to take more risks. I don't see it being a 3-0 sweep in either direction.
"If you're not living in the US or are a US Citizen, please do not tell us how to vote or how you want our country to be governed." - Serpest, American Hero
Lorch
Profile Joined June 2011
Germany3679 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-29 02:23:35
October 29 2020 02:19 GMT
#8
I don't think the number of terran games he gets is a good indicator of his chance of winning. 20% is not the odds of beating Soma as P or Z.
First and foremost, Soma can easily beat Flash's T. He is easily a top two zerg atm and we have to keep in mind that Flash has to split his practice time between three races.
That being said, Flash is probably the most genius tournament player we have ever seen in any eSport period. He can win a game on any map with any race against anybody. He will literally have multiple plans for every race on every map and he has the distinct advantage of knowing his opponents race from the first second of each match, while Soma has to open in a very general way until he scouts the race. Flash can practice easily for Soma against other top Zergs, but Soma can't really practice for Flash. He can practice vs all races on all the maps, and each race has great players to play against, but there is no actual random player to practice with. Flash doesnt play P or Z like a zerg or protoss would and given that he has the deepest understanding of Starcraft out of everyone who ever played it, he will craft strategies that can beat Soma in a single game. Obviously Flash would loose vs Soma if they were to play 100 games of each matchup, but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation.
kogeT
Profile Joined September 2013
Poland2037 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-29 07:52:32
October 29 2020 07:52 GMT
#9
On October 29 2020 11:19 Lorch wrote:
I don't think the number of terran games he gets is a good indicator of his chance of winning. 20% is not the odds of beating Soma as P or Z.
First and foremost, Soma can easily beat Flash's T. He is easily a top two zerg atm and we have to keep in mind that Flash has to split his practice time between three races.
That being said, Flash is probably the most genius tournament player we have ever seen in any eSport period. He can win a game on any map with any race against anybody. He will literally have multiple plans for every race on every map and he has the distinct advantage of knowing his opponents race from the first second of each match, while Soma has to open in a very general way until he scouts the race. Flash can practice easily for Soma against other top Zergs, but Soma can't really practice for Flash. He can practice vs all races on all the maps, and each race has great players to play against, but there is no actual random player to practice with. Flash doesnt play P or Z like a zerg or protoss would and given that he has the deepest understanding of Starcraft out of everyone who ever played it, he will craft strategies that can beat Soma in a single game. Obviously Flash would loose vs Soma if they were to play 100 games of each matchup, but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation.


Well said, I support that view. I give a slight edge for Flash to win the whole thing.
https://www.twitch.tv/kogetbw
TelecoM
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States10670 Posts
October 29 2020 08:04 GMT
#10
Unfortunately for Soma fans, FlaSh will roll Terran every time he needs to as Random, because he actually chooses his race with his mind.
AKA: TelecoM[WHITE] Protoss fighting
prosatan
Profile Joined September 2009
Romania7994 Posts
October 29 2020 10:30 GMT
#11
I want Flash to win but I will go with Soma in this match!
Lee JaeDong Fighting! The only church that illuminates is the one that burns.
oEkY
Profile Joined August 2016
Germany648 Posts
October 29 2020 11:30 GMT
#12
On October 29 2020 11:19 Lorch wrote:
... but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation.


it's a bo7 btw
Kaal
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Djibouti2514 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-29 13:28:47
October 29 2020 12:43 GMT
#13
Been watching Soma on stream the last few days and hes actually been struggling real hard against P. The amount of times I see him win is not much and he's playing Bisu/Flash/Shuttle only pretty much. He looks pretty much unbeatable in ZvZ though so I wouldn't give Flash much chances in that.

Edit: Nevermind lol he put on a masterclass ZvP during their team moneymatch vs Bisu.
[AS]Rattus
Profile Joined March 2017
427 Posts
October 29 2020 15:11 GMT
#14
probably just practiced off stream again
SolaR-
Profile Blog Joined February 2004
United States2685 Posts
October 29 2020 15:34 GMT
#15
Flash will win 4-0
Lorch
Profile Joined June 2011
Germany3679 Posts
October 29 2020 18:30 GMT
#16
On October 29 2020 20:30 oEkY wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 29 2020 11:19 Lorch wrote:
... but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation.


it's a bo7 btw


Oh ty for letting me know. I thought it was only finals Bo7. Probably even better for Flash tbh.
Amanebak
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Czech Republic528 Posts
October 29 2020 19:58 GMT
#17
On October 29 2020 07:09 2sxy4u_BG wrote:
Hey there
After that I communicated it to my girlfriend which excels in excel to say the least and she went even further

Your girlfriend is excellent!
BW
meegrean
Profile Joined May 2008
Thailand7699 Posts
October 30 2020 00:08 GMT
#18
Flash will get Terran exactly when he needs it.
Brood War loyalist
Light-
Profile Joined October 2020
United States25 Posts
October 30 2020 05:17 GMT
#19
Haha, I love that you guys did this. I'm feeling a 75/45/35 percentage which should be a little over 50% chance to win. But let's be honest, it's 100%, cause it's Flash :D

On October 30 2020 09:08 meegrean wrote:
Flash will get Terran exactly when he needs it.


Heh I can totally see this happening...All tied up, 3-3, Game 7, and Flash friggin rolls Terran and comfortably dispatches Soma to victory, without a trace of worry. Like another day in the office.

bos)Kulik
Profile Joined October 2020
5 Posts
October 30 2020 06:59 GMT
#20
On October 29 2020 21:43 Kaal wrote:
Been watching Soma on stream the last few days and hes actually been struggling real hard against P. The amount of times I see him win is not much and he's playing Bisu/Flash/Shuttle only pretty much. He looks pretty much unbeatable in ZvZ though so I wouldn't give Flash much chances in that.

Edit: Nevermind lol he put on a masterclass ZvP during their team moneymatch vs Bisu.

is there easy way to find this moneymatch vs bisu?
sorry for offtopic
1 2 Next All
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
DaveTesta Events
18:00
Kirktown Ready Room #3
davetesta131
Liquipedia
BSL20 Non-Korean Champi…
18:00
RO8 Round Robin Group - Day 1
Bonyth vs QiaoGege
Dewalt vs Fengzi
Hawk vs Zhanhun
Sziky vs Mihu
Mihu vs QiaoGege
Zhanhun vs Sziky
Fengzi vs Hawk
ZZZero.O301
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
SpeCial 131
StarCraft: Brood War
ZZZero.O 301
HiyA 84
Dota 2
syndereN329
monkeys_forever265
LuMiX1
League of Legends
Grubby5501
Dendi1246
Counter-Strike
fl0m1825
Stewie2K1161
flusha467
Heroes of the Storm
Khaldor446
Trikslyr54
Other Games
summit1g3663
mouzStarbuck237
ToD103
Pyrionflax100
Sick61
ViBE43
Livibee7
Organizations
Other Games
gamesdonequick53960
StarCraft 2
angryscii 40
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 23 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• kabyraGe 259
• StrangeGG 80
• printf 54
• tFFMrPink 23
• Legendk 6
• musti20045 5
• OhrlRock 1
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• sooper7s
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• Migwel
• LaughNgamezSOOP
StarCraft: Brood War
• Michael_bg 4
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
• BSLYoutube
Dota 2
• masondota21486
League of Legends
• Doublelift3768
• Jankos2337
Other Games
• imaqtpie2167
• Shiphtur400
Upcoming Events
Sparkling Tuna Cup
13h 3m
RSL Revival
13h 3m
Classic vs Clem
FEL
18h 3m
Elazer vs Spirit
Gerald vs MaNa
BSL20 Non-Korean Champi…
21h 3m
Bonyth vs Dewalt
QiaoGege vs Dewalt
Hawk vs Bonyth
Sziky vs Fengzi
Mihu vs Zhanhun
QiaoGege vs Zhanhun
Fengzi vs Mihu
Wardi Open
1d 14h
Replay Cast
2 days
WardiTV European League
2 days
PiGosaur Monday
3 days
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
3 days
Replay Cast
4 days
[ Show More ]
The PondCast
4 days
Replay Cast
5 days
Epic.LAN
5 days
CranKy Ducklings
6 days
Epic.LAN
6 days
BSL20 Non-Korean Champi…
6 days
Bonyth vs Sziky
Dewalt vs Hawk
Hawk vs QiaoGege
Sziky vs Dewalt
Mihu vs Bonyth
Zhanhun vs QiaoGege
QiaoGege vs Fengzi
Liquipedia Results

Completed

KCM Race Survival 2025 Season 2
HSC XXVII
NC Random Cup

Ongoing

JPL Season 2
BSL 2v2 Season 3
Acropolis #3
CSL 17: 2025 SUMMER
Copa Latinoamericana 4
Jiahua Invitational
2025 ACS Season 2: Qualifier
CSLPRO Last Chance 2025
Championship of Russia 2025
RSL Revival: Season 1
Murky Cup #2
BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025
ESL Impact League Season 7
IEM Dallas 2025
PGL Astana 2025
Asian Champions League '25
BLAST Rivals Spring 2025
MESA Nomadic Masters

Upcoming

CSL Xiamen Invitational
CSL Xiamen Invitational: ShowMatche
2025 ACS Season 2
CSLPRO Chat StarLAN 3
K-Championship
uThermal 2v2 Main Event
SEL Season 2 Championship
FEL Cracov 2025
Esports World Cup 2025
Underdog Cup #2
StarSeries Fall 2025
FISSURE Playground #2
BLAST Open Fall 2025
BLAST Open Fall Qual
Esports World Cup 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall Qual
IEM Cologne 2025
FISSURE Playground #1
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2025 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.