This post was inspired by SayianSC's latest video on a game between Flash and Soma, where at some point he said that it will be useful to have the chances for Flash to get Terran for example 2,3 or 4 times in his upcoming bo7 against Soma in Sunday's ASL.
Initially I went for the task with the intention to create a really simple excel table using binomial distribution with the chances for him getting respectfully 0 to 7 times terran in the upcoming matchup. I'm attaching a screenshot of the initial table:
After that I communicated it to my girlfriend which excels in excel to say the least and she went even further (tbh she helped with the initial table as well :D). We've added additional functionality, where based on the expected winrate of his matchups we get the general chance for him to win the whole series. Additionally, we've added the option to dynamically set the results of the matches during the series and be able to see the expected chance for him to win at the end.
Here's a screenshot of the final result done by her :D
In the final version, you can do the following:
- Get the chance for Flash (a random player) get terran (a specific race) atleast X times in Y games
- Set the expected winrate based on his race and get the general expected winrate from the series*
- The chances of Flash to win the series by game X, which dynamically updates after you input the score from the games
We (she)'ve made also a google sheets copy of the table at this adress - you can download it as a local copy and play with the numbers.
I hope someone finds this interesting and that you get less jealous than I'm proud of her :D
If you have any recommendations (I have some ideas on my own) let us know in the comments. Thanks for your time.
*The default winrates that I've used are 70% for Flash's T (as his latest ASL TvZ winrate) and 20% for his P and Z, based on Soma's record of 80% winrate in ASL in the matchups. To be honest, that's not the fairest representation (it would've been better if we had accurate stats for Flash's other matchups and also to use put as a % a function of his and Soma's winrate) - I'd definetely go for something like 70/35/35 which gives Flash 47% chance to win (that makes me pretty happy, as I'm actually rooting for him in the series - as he is God. Q.E.D)