• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 16:54
CEST 22:54
KST 05:54
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
Team TLMC #5 - Finalists & Open Tournaments0[ASL20] Ro16 Preview Pt2: Turbulence10Classic Games #3: Rogue vs Serral at BlizzCon9[ASL20] Ro16 Preview Pt1: Ascent10Maestros of the Game: Week 1/Play-in Preview12
Community News
BSL 2025 Warsaw LAN + Legends Showmatch0Weekly Cups (Sept 8-14): herO & MaxPax split cups4WardiTV TL Team Map Contest #5 Tournaments1SC4ALL $6,000 Open LAN in Philadelphia8Weekly Cups (Sept 1-7): MaxPax rebounds & Clem saga continues29
StarCraft 2
General
StarCraft II 5.0.15 PTR Patch Notes #1: Maru - Greatest Players of All Time Weekly Cups (Sept 8-14): herO & MaxPax split cups Team Liquid Map Contest #21 - Presented by Monster Energy SpeCial on The Tasteless Podcast
Tourneys
SC2's Safe House 2 - October 18 & 19 RSL: Revival, a new crowdfunded tournament series Maestros of The Game—$20k event w/ live finals in Paris Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament SC4ALL $6,000 Open LAN in Philadelphia
Strategy
Custom Maps
External Content
Mutation # 491 Night Drive Mutation # 490 Masters of Midnight Mutation # 489 Bannable Offense Mutation # 488 What Goes Around
Brood War
General
ASL20 General Discussion Soulkey on ASL S20 BW General Discussion ASL TICKET LIVE help! :D NaDa's Body
Tourneys
[ASL20] Ro16 Group D [ASL20] Ro16 Group C Small VOD Thread 2.0 [Megathread] Daily Proleagues
Strategy
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Muta micro map competition Fighting Spirit mining rates [G] Mineral Boosting
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Borderlands 3 Path of Exile Nintendo Switch Thread General RTS Discussion Thread
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion LiquidDota to reintegrate into TL.net
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine UK Politics Mega-thread Canadian Politics Mega-thread
Fan Clubs
The Happy Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! [Manga] One Piece Anime Discussion Thread
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread Formula 1 Discussion MLB/Baseball 2023
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Linksys AE2500 USB WIFI keeps disconnecting Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread High temperatures on bridge(s)
TL Community
BarCraft in Tokyo Japan for ASL Season5 Final The Automated Ban List
Blogs
i'm really bored guys
Peanutsc
I <=> 9
KrillinFromwales
The Personality of a Spender…
TrAiDoS
A very expensive lesson on ma…
Garnet
hello world
radishsoup
Lemme tell you a thing o…
JoinTheRain
RTS Design in Hypercoven
a11
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 1635 users

Flash To Win (FTW) vs Soma odds calculator

Forum Index > BW General
Post a Reply
1 2 Next All
2sxy4u_BG
Profile Joined October 2020
1 Post
October 28 2020 22:09 GMT
#1
Hey there

This post was inspired by SayianSC's latest video on a game between Flash and Soma, where at some point he said that it will be useful to have the chances for Flash to get Terran for example 2,3 or 4 times in his upcoming bo7 against Soma in Sunday's ASL.

Initially I went for the task with the intention to create a really simple excel table using binomial distribution with the chances for him getting respectfully 0 to 7 times terran in the upcoming matchup. I'm attaching a screenshot of the initial table:

[image loading]

After that I communicated it to my girlfriend which excels in excel to say the least and she went even further (tbh she helped with the initial table as well :D). We've added additional functionality, where based on the expected winrate of his matchups we get the general chance for him to win the whole series. Additionally, we've added the option to dynamically set the results of the matches during the series and be able to see the expected chance for him to win at the end.

Here's a screenshot of the final result done by her :D

[image loading]

In the final version, you can do the following:

  • Get the chance for Flash (a random player) get terran (a specific race) atleast X times in Y games
  • Set the expected winrate based on his race and get the general expected winrate from the series*
  • The chances of Flash to win the series by game X, which dynamically updates after you input the score from the games


We (she)'ve made also a google sheets copy of the table at this adress - you can download it as a local copy and play with the numbers.

I hope someone finds this interesting and that you get less jealous than I'm proud of her :D

If you have any recommendations (I have some ideas on my own) let us know in the comments. Thanks for your time.

*The default winrates that I've used are 70% for Flash's T (as his latest ASL TvZ winrate) and 20% for his P and Z, based on Soma's record of 80% winrate in ASL in the matchups. To be honest, that's not the fairest representation (it would've been better if we had accurate stats for Flash's other matchups and also to use put as a % a function of his and Soma's winrate) - I'd definetely go for something like 70/35/35 which gives Flash 47% chance to win (that makes me pretty happy, as I'm actually rooting for him in the series - as he is God. Q.E.D)
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10196 Posts
October 28 2020 22:42 GMT
#2
My name has literally been summoned through this post
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
BisuDagger
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Bisutopia19263 Posts
October 28 2020 22:51 GMT
#3
Did someone just summon my favorite buddy! + Show Spoiler +
Or is that blind-rawr. Gotta keep an eye on these KT peeps.
ModeratorFormer Afreeca Starleague Caster: http://afreeca.tv/ASL2ENG2
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10196 Posts
October 28 2020 23:14 GMT
#4
On October 29 2020 07:51 BisuDagger wrote:
Did someone just summon my favorite buddy! + Show Spoiler +
Or is that blind-rawr. Gotta keep an eye on these KT peeps.

FlaShDaggerFTW
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
sntct
Profile Joined February 2018
100 Posts
October 28 2020 23:21 GMT
#5
Watching Flash try to win a ZvZ or PvZ against Soma is going to be comical.

2 words: Nine Pool.
kaspa84
Profile Joined July 2016
Brazil169 Posts
October 29 2020 00:22 GMT
#6
20%? Comical? People should not underestimate God.
Caihead
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada8550 Posts
October 29 2020 01:10 GMT
#7
Flash will win 100% of his P and Z games to keep his win rate record, duh.

For reals though, him getting ZvZ will probably be a 45-55 split in Soma's favour since that's definitely not a match up he would have that much time to prepare for. Random into PvZ might be the cheesiest match up ever. I will give flash the slight edge over all though statistically speaking.

The order of him getting the races will matter a lot from a psychological perspective, if Flash can score some early wins and be up 2-0 or 2-1 he can afford to take more risks. I don't see it being a 3-0 sweep in either direction.
"If you're not living in the US or are a US Citizen, please do not tell us how to vote or how you want our country to be governed." - Serpest, American Hero
Lorch
Profile Joined June 2011
Germany3684 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-29 02:23:35
October 29 2020 02:19 GMT
#8
I don't think the number of terran games he gets is a good indicator of his chance of winning. 20% is not the odds of beating Soma as P or Z.
First and foremost, Soma can easily beat Flash's T. He is easily a top two zerg atm and we have to keep in mind that Flash has to split his practice time between three races.
That being said, Flash is probably the most genius tournament player we have ever seen in any eSport period. He can win a game on any map with any race against anybody. He will literally have multiple plans for every race on every map and he has the distinct advantage of knowing his opponents race from the first second of each match, while Soma has to open in a very general way until he scouts the race. Flash can practice easily for Soma against other top Zergs, but Soma can't really practice for Flash. He can practice vs all races on all the maps, and each race has great players to play against, but there is no actual random player to practice with. Flash doesnt play P or Z like a zerg or protoss would and given that he has the deepest understanding of Starcraft out of everyone who ever played it, he will craft strategies that can beat Soma in a single game. Obviously Flash would loose vs Soma if they were to play 100 games of each matchup, but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation.
kogeT
Profile Joined September 2013
Poland2040 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-29 07:52:32
October 29 2020 07:52 GMT
#9
On October 29 2020 11:19 Lorch wrote:
I don't think the number of terran games he gets is a good indicator of his chance of winning. 20% is not the odds of beating Soma as P or Z.
First and foremost, Soma can easily beat Flash's T. He is easily a top two zerg atm and we have to keep in mind that Flash has to split his practice time between three races.
That being said, Flash is probably the most genius tournament player we have ever seen in any eSport period. He can win a game on any map with any race against anybody. He will literally have multiple plans for every race on every map and he has the distinct advantage of knowing his opponents race from the first second of each match, while Soma has to open in a very general way until he scouts the race. Flash can practice easily for Soma against other top Zergs, but Soma can't really practice for Flash. He can practice vs all races on all the maps, and each race has great players to play against, but there is no actual random player to practice with. Flash doesnt play P or Z like a zerg or protoss would and given that he has the deepest understanding of Starcraft out of everyone who ever played it, he will craft strategies that can beat Soma in a single game. Obviously Flash would loose vs Soma if they were to play 100 games of each matchup, but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation.


Well said, I support that view. I give a slight edge for Flash to win the whole thing.
https://www.twitch.tv/kogetbw
TelecoM
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States10675 Posts
October 29 2020 08:04 GMT
#10
Unfortunately for Soma fans, FlaSh will roll Terran every time he needs to as Random, because he actually chooses his race with his mind.
AKA: TelecoM[WHITE] Protoss fighting
prosatan
Profile Joined September 2009
Romania8290 Posts
October 29 2020 10:30 GMT
#11
I want Flash to win but I will go with Soma in this match!
Lee JaeDong Fighting! The only church that illuminates is the one that burns.
oEkY
Profile Joined August 2016
Germany649 Posts
October 29 2020 11:30 GMT
#12
On October 29 2020 11:19 Lorch wrote:
... but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation.


it's a bo7 btw
Kaal
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Djibouti2516 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-29 13:28:47
October 29 2020 12:43 GMT
#13
Been watching Soma on stream the last few days and hes actually been struggling real hard against P. The amount of times I see him win is not much and he's playing Bisu/Flash/Shuttle only pretty much. He looks pretty much unbeatable in ZvZ though so I wouldn't give Flash much chances in that.

Edit: Nevermind lol he put on a masterclass ZvP during their team moneymatch vs Bisu.
[AS]Rattus
Profile Joined March 2017
427 Posts
October 29 2020 15:11 GMT
#14
probably just practiced off stream again
SolaR-
Profile Blog Joined February 2004
United States2685 Posts
October 29 2020 15:34 GMT
#15
Flash will win 4-0
Lorch
Profile Joined June 2011
Germany3684 Posts
October 29 2020 18:30 GMT
#16
On October 29 2020 20:30 oEkY wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 29 2020 11:19 Lorch wrote:
... but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation.


it's a bo7 btw


Oh ty for letting me know. I thought it was only finals Bo7. Probably even better for Flash tbh.
Amanebak
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Czech Republic528 Posts
October 29 2020 19:58 GMT
#17
On October 29 2020 07:09 2sxy4u_BG wrote:
Hey there
After that I communicated it to my girlfriend which excels in excel to say the least and she went even further

Your girlfriend is excellent!
BW
meegrean
Profile Joined May 2008
Thailand7699 Posts
October 30 2020 00:08 GMT
#18
Flash will get Terran exactly when he needs it.
Brood War loyalist
Light-
Profile Joined October 2020
United States25 Posts
October 30 2020 05:17 GMT
#19
Haha, I love that you guys did this. I'm feeling a 75/45/35 percentage which should be a little over 50% chance to win. But let's be honest, it's 100%, cause it's Flash :D

On October 30 2020 09:08 meegrean wrote:
Flash will get Terran exactly when he needs it.


Heh I can totally see this happening...All tied up, 3-3, Game 7, and Flash friggin rolls Terran and comfortably dispatches Soma to victory, without a trace of worry. Like another day in the office.

bos)Kulik
Profile Joined October 2020
5 Posts
October 30 2020 06:59 GMT
#20
On October 29 2020 21:43 Kaal wrote:
Been watching Soma on stream the last few days and hes actually been struggling real hard against P. The amount of times I see him win is not much and he's playing Bisu/Flash/Shuttle only pretty much. He looks pretty much unbeatable in ZvZ though so I wouldn't give Flash much chances in that.

Edit: Nevermind lol he put on a masterclass ZvP during their team moneymatch vs Bisu.

is there easy way to find this moneymatch vs bisu?
sorry for offtopic
1 2 Next All
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Next event in 13h 6m
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
mouzHeroMarine 500
UpATreeSC 221
SteadfastSC 176
NeuroSwarm 151
IndyStarCraft 130
ForJumy 21
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 15936
Dewaltoss 165
Shuttle 152
Larva 63
Aegong 29
Sexy 24
Dota 2
Fuzer 190
Counter-Strike
flusha275
Stewie2K163
Super Smash Bros
Mew2King48
Heroes of the Storm
Liquid`Hasu528
Other Games
summit1g4939
FrodaN1496
Sick1182
fl0m898
mouzStarbuck286
ToD260
C9.Mang0157
Trikslyr41
PPMD34
Organizations
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 19 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• davetesta23
• Reevou 4
• Kozan
• sooper7s
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• Migwel
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• intothetv
• IndyKCrew
StarCraft: Brood War
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
• BSLYoutube
Dota 2
• C_a_k_e 4935
• Noizen30
League of Legends
• Doublelift4093
• TFBlade738
Other Games
• imaqtpie681
• WagamamaTV429
• Shiphtur269
Upcoming Events
RSL Revival
13h 6m
Zoun vs Classic
Map Test Tournament
14h 6m
Korean StarCraft League
1d 6h
BSL Open LAN 2025 - War…
1d 11h
RSL Revival
1d 13h
Reynor vs Cure
BSL Open LAN 2025 - War…
2 days
RSL Revival
2 days
Online Event
2 days
Wardi Open
3 days
Monday Night Weeklies
3 days
[ Show More ]
Sparkling Tuna Cup
4 days
LiuLi Cup
5 days
The PondCast
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Proleague 2025-09-10
Chzzk MurlocKing SC1 vs SC2 Cup #2
HCC Europe

Ongoing

BSL 20 Team Wars
KCM Race Survival 2025 Season 3
BSL 21 Points
ASL Season 20
CSL 2025 AUTUMN (S18)
LASL Season 20
RSL Revival: Season 2
Maestros of the Game
StarSeries Fall 2025
FISSURE Playground #2
BLAST Open Fall 2025
BLAST Open Fall Qual
Esports World Cup 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall Qual
IEM Cologne 2025
FISSURE Playground #1

Upcoming

2025 Chongqing Offline CUP
BSL World Championship of Poland 2025
IPSL Winter 2025-26
BSL Season 21
SC4ALL: Brood War
BSL 21 Team A
Stellar Fest
SC4ALL: StarCraft II
EC S1
ESL Impact League Season 8
SL Budapest Major 2025
BLAST Rivals Fall 2025
IEM Chengdu 2025
PGL Masters Bucharest 2025
Thunderpick World Champ.
CS Asia Championships 2025
ESL Pro League S22
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2025 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.