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Hey there 
This post was inspired by SayianSC's latest video on a game between Flash and Soma, where at some point he said that it will be useful to have the chances for Flash to get Terran for example 2,3 or 4 times in his upcoming bo7 against Soma in Sunday's ASL.
Initially I went for the task with the intention to create a really simple excel table using binomial distribution with the chances for him getting respectfully 0 to 7 times terran in the upcoming matchup. I'm attaching a screenshot of the initial table:
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/vtiaYcU.png)
After that I communicated it to my girlfriend which excels in excel to say the least and she went even further (tbh she helped with the initial table as well :D). We've added additional functionality, where based on the expected winrate of his matchups we get the general chance for him to win the whole series. Additionally, we've added the option to dynamically set the results of the matches during the series and be able to see the expected chance for him to win at the end.
Here's a screenshot of the final result done by her :D
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/BxDqMyb.png)
In the final version, you can do the following:
- Get the chance for Flash (a random player) get terran (a specific race) atleast X times in Y games
- Set the expected winrate based on his race and get the general expected winrate from the series*
- The chances of Flash to win the series by game X, which dynamically updates after you input the score from the games
We (she)'ve made also a google sheets copy of the table at this adress - you can download it as a local copy and play with the numbers.
I hope someone finds this interesting and that you get less jealous than I'm proud of her :D
If you have any recommendations (I have some ideas on my own) let us know in the comments. Thanks for your time.
*The default winrates that I've used are 70% for Flash's T (as his latest ASL TvZ winrate) and 20% for his P and Z, based on Soma's record of 80% winrate in ASL in the matchups. To be honest, that's not the fairest representation (it would've been better if we had accurate stats for Flash's other matchups and also to use put as a % a function of his and Soma's winrate) - I'd definetely go for something like 70/35/35 which gives Flash 47% chance to win (that makes me pretty happy, as I'm actually rooting for him in the series - as he is God. Q.E.D)
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United States10483 Posts
My name has literally been summoned through this post
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Bisutopia19367 Posts
Did someone just summon my favorite buddy! + Show Spoiler +Or is that blind-rawr. Gotta keep an eye on these KT peeps.
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United States10483 Posts
On October 29 2020 07:51 BisuDagger wrote:Did someone just summon my favorite buddy! + Show Spoiler +Or is that blind-rawr. Gotta keep an eye on these KT peeps.
FlaShDaggerFTW
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Watching Flash try to win a ZvZ or PvZ against Soma is going to be comical.
2 words: Nine Pool.
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20%? Comical? People should not underestimate God.
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Flash will win 100% of his P and Z games to keep his win rate record, duh.
For reals though, him getting ZvZ will probably be a 45-55 split in Soma's favour since that's definitely not a match up he would have that much time to prepare for. Random into PvZ might be the cheesiest match up ever. I will give flash the slight edge over all though statistically speaking.
The order of him getting the races will matter a lot from a psychological perspective, if Flash can score some early wins and be up 2-0 or 2-1 he can afford to take more risks. I don't see it being a 3-0 sweep in either direction.
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I don't think the number of terran games he gets is a good indicator of his chance of winning. 20% is not the odds of beating Soma as P or Z.
First and foremost, Soma can easily beat Flash's T. He is easily a top two zerg atm and we have to keep in mind that Flash has to split his practice time between three races.
That being said, Flash is probably the most genius tournament player we have ever seen in any eSport period. He can win a game on any map with any race against anybody. He will literally have multiple plans for every race on every map and he has the distinct advantage of knowing his opponents race from the first second of each match, while Soma has to open in a very general way until he scouts the race. Flash can practice easily for Soma against other top Zergs, but Soma can't really practice for Flash. He can practice vs all races on all the maps, and each race has great players to play against, but there is no actual random player to practice with. Flash doesnt play P or Z like a zerg or protoss would and given that he has the deepest understanding of Starcraft out of everyone who ever played it, he will craft strategies that can beat Soma in a single game. Obviously Flash would loose vs Soma if they were to play 100 games of each matchup, but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation.
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On October 29 2020 11:19 Lorch wrote:
I don't think the number of terran games he gets is a good indicator of his chance of winning. 20% is not the odds of beating Soma as P or Z.
First and foremost, Soma can easily beat Flash's T. He is easily a top two zerg atm and we have to keep in mind that Flash has to split his practice time between three races.
That being said, Flash is probably the most genius tournament player we have ever seen in any eSport period. He can win a game on any map with any race against anybody. He will literally have multiple plans for every race on every map and he has the distinct advantage of knowing his opponents race from the first second of each match, while Soma has to open in a very general way until he scouts the race. Flash can practice easily for Soma against other top Zergs, but Soma can't really practice for Flash. He can practice vs all races on all the maps, and each race has great players to play against, but there is no actual random player to practice with. Flash doesnt play P or Z like a zerg or protoss would and given that he has the deepest understanding of Starcraft out of everyone who ever played it, he will craft strategies that can beat Soma in a single game. Obviously Flash would loose vs Soma if they were to play 100 games of each matchup, but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation.
Well said, I support that view. I give a slight edge for Flash to win the whole thing.
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Unfortunately for Soma fans, FlaSh will roll Terran every time he needs to as Random, because he actually chooses his race with his mind.
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I want Flash to win but I will go with Soma in this match!
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On October 29 2020 11:19 Lorch wrote:
... but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation.
it's a bo7 btw
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Been watching Soma on stream the last few days and hes actually been struggling real hard against P. The amount of times I see him win is not much and he's playing Bisu/Flash/Shuttle only pretty much. He looks pretty much unbeatable in ZvZ though so I wouldn't give Flash much chances in that.
Edit: Nevermind lol he put on a masterclass ZvP during their team moneymatch vs Bisu.
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probably just practiced off stream again
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On October 29 2020 20:30 oEkY wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 11:19 Lorch wrote:
... but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation. it's a bo7 btw
Oh ty for letting me know. I thought it was only finals Bo7. Probably even better for Flash tbh.
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On October 29 2020 07:09 2sxy4u_BG wrote:Hey there After that I communicated it to my girlfriend which excels in excel to say the least and she went even further
Your girlfriend is excellent!
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Flash will get Terran exactly when he needs it.
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Haha, I love that you guys did this. I'm feeling a 75/45/35 percentage which should be a little over 50% chance to win. But let's be honest, it's 100%, cause it's Flash :D
On October 30 2020 09:08 meegrean wrote:
Flash will get Terran exactly when he needs it.
Heh I can totally see this happening...All tied up, 3-3, Game 7, and Flash friggin rolls Terran and comfortably dispatches Soma to victory, without a trace of worry. Like another day in the office.
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On October 29 2020 21:43 Kaal wrote:
Been watching Soma on stream the last few days and hes actually been struggling real hard against P. The amount of times I see him win is not much and he's playing Bisu/Flash/Shuttle only pretty much. He looks pretty much unbeatable in ZvZ though so I wouldn't give Flash much chances in that.
Edit: Nevermind lol he put on a masterclass ZvP during their team moneymatch vs Bisu.
is there easy way to find this moneymatch vs bisu?
sorry for offtopic
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EPT
