This post was inspired by SayianSC's latest video on a game between Flash and Soma, where at some point he said that it will be useful to have the chances for Flash to get Terran for example 2,3 or 4 times in his upcoming bo7 against Soma in Sunday's ASL.
Initially I went for the task with the intention to create a really simple excel table using binomial distribution with the chances for him getting respectfully 0 to 7 times terran in the upcoming matchup. I'm attaching a screenshot of the initial table:
After that I communicated it to my girlfriend which excels in excel to say the least and she went even further (tbh she helped with the initial table as well :D). We've added additional functionality, where based on the expected winrate of his matchups we get the general chance for him to win the whole series. Additionally, we've added the option to dynamically set the results of the matches during the series and be able to see the expected chance for him to win at the end.
Here's a screenshot of the final result done by her :D
In the final version, you can do the following:
Get the chance for Flash (a random player) get terran (a specific race) atleast X times in Y games
Set the expected winrate based on his race and get the general expected winrate from the series*
The chances of Flash to win the series by game X, which dynamically updates after you input the score from the games
We (she)'ve made also a google sheets copy of the table at this adress - you can download it as a local copy and play with the numbers.
I hope someone finds this interesting and that you get less jealous than I'm proud of her :D
If you have any recommendations (I have some ideas on my own) let us know in the comments. Thanks for your time.
*The default winrates that I've used are 70% for Flash's T (as his latest ASL TvZ winrate) and 20% for his P and Z, based on Soma's record of 80% winrate in ASL in the matchups. To be honest, that's not the fairest representation (it would've been better if we had accurate stats for Flash's other matchups and also to use put as a % a function of his and Soma's winrate) - I'd definetely go for something like 70/35/35 which gives Flash 47% chance to win (that makes me pretty happy, as I'm actually rooting for him in the series - as he is God. Q.E.D)
Flash will win 100% of his P and Z games to keep his win rate record, duh.
For reals though, him getting ZvZ will probably be a 45-55 split in Soma's favour since that's definitely not a match up he would have that much time to prepare for. Random into PvZ might be the cheesiest match up ever. I will give flash the slight edge over all though statistically speaking.
The order of him getting the races will matter a lot from a psychological perspective, if Flash can score some early wins and be up 2-0 or 2-1 he can afford to take more risks. I don't see it being a 3-0 sweep in either direction.
I don't think the number of terran games he gets is a good indicator of his chance of winning. 20% is not the odds of beating Soma as P or Z. First and foremost, Soma can easily beat Flash's T. He is easily a top two zerg atm and we have to keep in mind that Flash has to split his practice time between three races. That being said, Flash is probably the most genius tournament player we have ever seen in any eSport period. He can win a game on any map with any race against anybody. He will literally have multiple plans for every race on every map and he has the distinct advantage of knowing his opponents race from the first second of each match, while Soma has to open in a very general way until he scouts the race. Flash can practice easily for Soma against other top Zergs, but Soma can't really practice for Flash. He can practice vs all races on all the maps, and each race has great players to play against, but there is no actual random player to practice with. Flash doesnt play P or Z like a zerg or protoss would and given that he has the deepest understanding of Starcraft out of everyone who ever played it, he will craft strategies that can beat Soma in a single game. Obviously Flash would loose vs Soma if they were to play 100 games of each matchup, but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation.
On October 29 2020 11:19 Lorch wrote: I don't think the number of terran games he gets is a good indicator of his chance of winning. 20% is not the odds of beating Soma as P or Z. First and foremost, Soma can easily beat Flash's T. He is easily a top two zerg atm and we have to keep in mind that Flash has to split his practice time between three races. That being said, Flash is probably the most genius tournament player we have ever seen in any eSport period. He can win a game on any map with any race against anybody. He will literally have multiple plans for every race on every map and he has the distinct advantage of knowing his opponents race from the first second of each match, while Soma has to open in a very general way until he scouts the race. Flash can practice easily for Soma against other top Zergs, but Soma can't really practice for Flash. He can practice vs all races on all the maps, and each race has great players to play against, but there is no actual random player to practice with. Flash doesnt play P or Z like a zerg or protoss would and given that he has the deepest understanding of Starcraft out of everyone who ever played it, he will craft strategies that can beat Soma in a single game. Obviously Flash would loose vs Soma if they were to play 100 games of each matchup, but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation.
Well said, I support that view. I give a slight edge for Flash to win the whole thing.
Been watching Soma on stream the last few days and hes actually been struggling real hard against P. The amount of times I see him win is not much and he's playing Bisu/Flash/Shuttle only pretty much. He looks pretty much unbeatable in ZvZ though so I wouldn't give Flash much chances in that.
Edit: Nevermind lol he put on a masterclass ZvP during their team moneymatch vs Bisu.
On October 29 2020 07:09 2sxy4u_BG wrote: Hey there After that I communicated it to my girlfriend which excels in excel to say the least and she went even further
Haha, I love that you guys did this. I'm feeling a 75/45/35 percentage which should be a little over 50% chance to win. But let's be honest, it's 100%, cause it's Flash :D
On October 30 2020 09:08 meegrean wrote: Flash will get Terran exactly when he needs it.
Heh I can totally see this happening...All tied up, 3-3, Game 7, and Flash friggin rolls Terran and comfortably dispatches Soma to victory, without a trace of worry. Like another day in the office.
On October 29 2020 21:43 Kaal wrote: Been watching Soma on stream the last few days and hes actually been struggling real hard against P. The amount of times I see him win is not much and he's playing Bisu/Flash/Shuttle only pretty much. He looks pretty much unbeatable in ZvZ though so I wouldn't give Flash much chances in that.
Edit: Nevermind lol he put on a masterclass ZvP during their team moneymatch vs Bisu.
is there easy way to find this moneymatch vs bisu? sorry for offtopic
I would love for Flash to win, but I think playing as random gives you the least benefits vs Z and especially vs the kind of player Soma is. I do believe Soma is going to prevail in the end, but I hope to be disappointed in that regard.
I mean its a cute work and all and a very fun idea but no, I'm sorry, putting numbers so roughly like that to calculate the chances for the Genius of Genius to win a bo7 series with random race is very very silly. It should be a little more complicated than that... And the results also.. put 3 numbers together and come to the conclusion he has 37% of winning what.. a single game? the series? Come on. Do you realize the man is 6-0 with random race in offline tournaments so far?
On October 29 2020 11:19 Lorch wrote: I don't think the number of terran games he gets is a good indicator of his chance of winning. 20% is not the odds of beating Soma as P or Z. First and foremost, Soma can easily beat Flash's T. He is easily a top two zerg atm and we have to keep in mind that Flash has to split his practice time between three races. That being said, Flash is probably the most genius tournament player we have ever seen in any eSport period. He can win a game on any map with any race against anybody. He will literally have multiple plans for every race on every map and he has the distinct advantage of knowing his opponents race from the first second of each match, while Soma has to open in a very general way until he scouts the race. Flash can practice easily for Soma against other top Zergs, but Soma can't really practice for Flash. He can practice vs all races on all the maps, and each race has great players to play against, but there is no actual random player to practice with. Flash doesnt play P or Z like a zerg or protoss would and given that he has the deepest understanding of Starcraft out of everyone who ever played it, he will craft strategies that can beat Soma in a single game. Obviously Flash would loose vs Soma if they were to play 100 games of each matchup, but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation.
Well said, I support that view. I give a slight edge for Flash to win the whole thing.
I do agree with everything these two man said with the exception that maybe, just maybe, it would be a little more than "slight", but we will see and that's the best part
On October 31 2020 03:14 LocoBolon wrote: I mean its a cute work and all and a very fun idea but no, I'm sorry, putting numbers so roughly like that to calculate the chances for the Genius of Genius to win a bo7 series with random race is very very silly. It should be a little more complicated than that...
Showing strong reading comprehension here! If you re-read it you will find the initial aim to calculate how many times he rolls terran, and then from that multiplication with various winrates
On October 29 2020 11:19 Lorch wrote: I don't think the number of terran games he gets is a good indicator of his Chance of winning. 20% is not the odds of beating Soma as P or Z. + Show Spoiler +
First and foremost, Soma can easily beat Flash's T. He is easily a Top two zerg atm and we have to keep in mind that Flash Has to split his Practice TIME between three races. That being said, Flash is probably the most Genius tournament player we have Ever seen in any eSport period. He can win a game on any map with any race against anybody. He will literally have multiple plans for every race on every map and he Has the distinct advantage of knowing his opponents race from the First second of each match, while Soma Has to open in a very General Way until he scouts the race. Flash can Practice easily for Soma against other Top Zergs, but Soma can't really Practice for Flash. He can Practice vs all races on all the maps, and each race Has Great players to play against, but there is no actual random player to Practice with. Flash doesnt play P or Z like a zerg or Protoss would and given that he Has the deepest understanding of starcraft out of everyone WhO Ever played it, he will craft strategies that can beat Soma in a single game. Obviously Flash would loose vs Soma if they were to play 100 games of each matchup, but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation.
Sorry guys but Flash getting Terran is likely the single greatest factor in influencing the outcome of the series.
With my numbers I get a 40% Flash / 60% Soma, which is fair enough. Anyway, yes, T rolls are the biggest factor.
If Flash rolls 4 T it's gg. If Flash rolls 3 T he would have to win 1 game out of 4 with P/Z, which is not easy but not impossible. If Flash rolls 2 T (most likely) he would have a hard time at winning those 2 out of 5 remaining games. If Flash rolls 1 T he is basically dead (3/6 games to win with P/Z, no way).
Anyway, I hope Flash rolls the expected value (2 T) because I want to see him with P/Z, what would be the point of he rolling and winning with T? If I was Flash I would train expecially the ZvZ matchup, while PvZ he can only try fancy stuff because in a standard game he will be destroyed.
On October 29 2020 11:19 Lorch wrote: I don't think the number of terran games he gets is a good indicator of his Chance of winning. 20% is not the odds of beating Soma as P or Z. + Show Spoiler +
First and foremost, Soma can easily beat Flash's T. He is easily a Top two zerg atm and we have to keep in mind that Flash Has to split his Practice TIME between three races. That being said, Flash is probably the most Genius tournament player we have Ever seen in any eSport period. He can win a game on any map with any race against anybody. He will literally have multiple plans for every race on every map and he Has the distinct advantage of knowing his opponents race from the First second of each match, while Soma Has to open in a very General Way until he scouts the race. Flash can Practice easily for Soma against other Top Zergs, but Soma can't really Practice for Flash. He can Practice vs all races on all the maps, and each race Has Great players to play against, but there is no actual random player to Practice with. Flash doesnt play P or Z like a zerg or Protoss would and given that he Has the deepest understanding of starcraft out of everyone WhO Ever played it, he will craft strategies that can beat Soma in a single game. Obviously Flash would loose vs Soma if they were to play 100 games of each matchup, but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation.
Sorry guys but Flash getting Terran is likely the single greatest factor in influencing the outcome of the series. You are listing all of the advantages of Random - which are well known. The disadvantage is: playing ZvZ and PvZ against Soma, and the net result is that in both matchups Flash is significantly unfavored no matter the number of games, or the strategies he uses.
Realistically, if SKT Telecom Hyuk came back out of retirement with a few weeks of practice and played a best of 7 against Flash's P/Z (random between the 2), Hyuk would be favored and possibly even destroy him.
Huyk streams and loses to Lights P and if a remember correctly Larva has beaten Hyuk in tvz so...
On October 29 2020 11:19 Lorch wrote: I don't think the number of terran games he gets is a good indicator of his Chance of winning. 20% is not the odds of beating Soma as P or Z. + Show Spoiler +
First and foremost, Soma can easily beat Flash's T. He is easily a Top two zerg atm and we have to keep in mind that Flash Has to split his Practice TIME between three races. That being said, Flash is probably the most Genius tournament player we have Ever seen in any eSport period. He can win a game on any map with any race against anybody. He will literally have multiple plans for every race on every map and he Has the distinct advantage of knowing his opponents race from the First second of each match, while Soma Has to open in a very General Way until he scouts the race. Flash can Practice easily for Soma against other Top Zergs, but Soma can't really Practice for Flash. He can Practice vs all races on all the maps, and each race Has Great players to play against, but there is no actual random player to Practice with. Flash doesnt play P or Z like a zerg or Protoss would and given that he Has the deepest understanding of starcraft out of everyone WhO Ever played it, he will craft strategies that can beat Soma in a single game. Obviously Flash would loose vs Soma if they were to play 100 games of each matchup, but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation.
Sorry guys but Flash getting Terran is likely the single greatest factor in influencing the outcome of the series. You are listing all of the advantages of Random - which are well known. The disadvantage is: playing ZvZ and PvZ against Soma, and the net result is that in both matchups Flash is significantly unfavored no matter the number of games, or the strategies he uses.
Realistically, if SKT Telecom Hyuk came back out of retirement with a few weeks of practice and played a best of 7 against Flash's P/Z (random between the 2), Hyuk would be favored and possibly even destroy him.
Huyk streams and loses to Lights P and if a remember correctly Larva has beaten Hyuk in tvz so...
OK but I mean someone like Snow or even Rush would be sure to beat Flash's P/Z if they were in form (practicing for a big tournament or something).
There's a lot more to factor in here. Soma will most likely just prep a build for zvz and zvp and just ignore zvt entirely. Flash probably knows this and could easily prep a few builds to counter such an opener by soma.
There is also that psychologic factor that comes to play when it comes to playing Flash's random. Soma probably knows there is a 1 in 3 chance that he is dead as soon as the game start, and that's for every game. That's got to be eating away at him throughout the series especially for someone who is still relatively inexperienced.
On October 29 2020 11:19 Lorch wrote: I don't think the number of terran games he gets is a good indicator of his Chance of winning. 20% is not the odds of beating Soma as P or Z. + Show Spoiler +
First and foremost, Soma can easily beat Flash's T. He is easily a Top two zerg atm and we have to keep in mind that Flash Has to split his Practice TIME between three races. That being said, Flash is probably the most Genius tournament player we have Ever seen in any eSport period. He can win a game on any map with any race against anybody. He will literally have multiple plans for every race on every map and he Has the distinct advantage of knowing his opponents race from the First second of each match, while Soma Has to open in a very General Way until he scouts the race. Flash can Practice easily for Soma against other Top Zergs, but Soma can't really Practice for Flash. He can Practice vs all races on all the maps, and each race Has Great players to play against, but there is no actual random player to Practice with. Flash doesnt play P or Z like a zerg or Protoss would and given that he Has the deepest understanding of starcraft out of everyone WhO Ever played it, he will craft strategies that can beat Soma in a single game. Obviously Flash would loose vs Soma if they were to play 100 games of each matchup, but a Bo5 in a tournament is a completely different situation.
Sorry guys but Flash getting Terran is likely the single greatest factor in influencing the outcome of the series. You are listing all of the advantages of Random - which are well known. The disadvantage is: playing ZvZ and PvZ against Soma, and the net result is that in both matchups Flash is significantly unfavored no matter the number of games, or the strategies he uses.
Realistically, if SKT Telecom Hyuk came back out of retirement with a few weeks of practice and played a best of 7 against Flash's P/Z (random between the 2), Hyuk would be favored and possibly even destroy him.
Huyk streams and loses to Lights P and if a remember correctly Larva has beaten Hyuk in tvz so...
OK but I mean someone like Snow or even Rush would be sure to beat Flash's P/Z if they were in form (practicing for a big tournament or something).
I see what you did there :D
sntc, we haven't even seen Flash play a single ZvZ/PvZ. If you really think he will loose every game he doesn't get terran in, then you are severly underestimating the best preperation BoX player of all time, alongside those "well known" random advantages. If it were Effort in a finals I'd agree with you, but I guess we'll see in a few hours
As of now, Pinnacle odds lines are 1.595 for Flash and 2.26 for Soma. That is a 58.6% implied probability of victory for Flash being priced in by betting markets.
And I think your estimations of Flash's chances of winning as Z or P are way lower then actuality, given that he currently boasts a 100% winrate in those 2 races
Flash played ZvZ against Zero. Build order advantage 9 pool speed, first scout vs. 12 hatch, and lost due to poor micro.
Soma can expect Flash's offrace strategies to consist of the following: 1) all in builds (less probable as they can be countered by 9 pool) 2) mid game timing attacks.
Yes I'm sure his ZvZ 3 months ago is a good indicator of what we'll see from him. Don't confuse a few random show matches with Flash preparing for a Bo7. The single game of him actually playing Zerg in a tournament was vs Rush, and that was a straight build order win thanks to his star sense.
EPT
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