Last week's games were fantastic. Between JyJ's surprisingly great play which ultimately fell short to Best's struggle to survive in the Group of Death to Larva's July-esque ballsy all-in play, there are ample storylines to tell going into the Ro8 already. If you didn't get a chance go watch the games, we highly recommend you go back and watch them.

If there's anything we've learned from the map pool so far, it's that Optimizer and Plasma are (unsurprisingly) making life really difficult and producing incredibly weird and impossible games to predict. It's been clear that the players with the most tenacity and crisis management like Best, Larva, and Rush tend to come out on top, so expect to see more long, messy games with unpredictable outcomes as we head into the second half of the Ro16!

This may very well be the most viewed broadcast of the ASL ever. You've got free who has managed to make the Ro16 after a bit of rust from his time away on military service. But that's not why you’re watching. hero is back too, bringing back the best ZvP like he never went away in the first place. But that's not why you’re watching either. Snow continues his tear through the competition in his best offline run in the year thus far. But it's still not why you’re watching.

You’re watching because Flash is playing Random.

The general understanding when it comes to dealing with random is that Terran does have the easiest, most if not all openings are viable to a varying degree. Fortunately for Flash, there are no Terrans in the group. On the other hand, Protoss would have a disadvantage against a Zerg roll because they need to play a very safe opening with a gate in the main against random, so Flash could take advantage of that against free and Snow. Zerg is easily his weakest race, with his ZvP in particular looking like probably his weakest matchup, Flash needs all the help he can get.

Flash’s Protoss is in a much better position. He's always had a good Protoss offrace (I’m not talking about just those old Proleague all-star games, but those are quite nice too) with a really good PvT and a rock solid PvZ. He even has a handful of games against hero where he's managed to perform very well executed +1 sair speedlot timing and +2 speedlot archon attacks on maps like Ringing Bloom.

If Flash rolls Terran in just about any game, he wins, but his opponents won’t know until they scout him. There is so much he can do in the early game with just that, and given that bad luck for Flash would be a 67% chance(or maybe even 50% considering that Snow and free are no slouches in PvP), he should be able to advance in first place unless he gets really unlucky.

Second place seems like a legitimate battle between Snow and hero. Winning the opening game changes things significantly for the winner, but that honestly depends on the random rolls that Flash gets in the winners game, Snow’s ZvP is very solid, but against hero, it needs to be stellar, and right now their overall head-to-head is 17-14 in favor of hero. These two definitely look like they’ll meet again in the final game regardless of the opening game outcome, and in a Bo3 with map picks, I’d take Snow over hero.

hero would still be lucky if Flash rolls Protoss. Just because he has lost to him doesn’t particularly mean that he can’t beat him. It's definitely easier for him to beat Flash’s Protoss than it would be with his subpar ZvZ or a nigh impossible ZvT (and we know how that looks). Against Snow and free, though, he should feel very comfortable rocking that 63% win rate and the winning head-to-head. However, the map pool is not the most favorable for Zerg, especially offline, putting him in tough positions when it comes to the Bo3 stage.

Free has one chance to set the group into a tailspin: get a favorable matchup against Flash. If Flash rolls Terran or Protoss, it's a very hard battle for him to get to the winners game, but even if he does, he pretty much doesn’t stand a chance against Snow's 70% win rate in PvP or hero, who he is 1-13 against.


Flash and Snow to advance to the Ro8!

If Group B was the group of death, Group D is the group of small margins. It is by far the most evenly balanced group in the Ro16 with several A class players in some of their best matchups. As an entirely PZ group, we’ll be missing out on any Terran play, and unfortunately, the results may be heavily skewed based on razor thin margins. All it takes is one flub in muta micro in a ZvZ or a cannon built five seconds too late to lose.

In terms of PvZ, the Protoss players have an advantage. Historically, Mini and Shuttle have very powerful positional PvZ which emphasizes early pressure and drop play to push and pull the Zerg around the map and open up deadly timings, so I expect both of them to feel in their element. Soma and Soulkey also have very good records in this matchup once they’re able to get into their element, but often their strength in ZvP is overshadowed by their prowess in ZvT.

In mirror matchups, both Protoss players are comfortable in PvP (Mini actually has a lowkey great record in the matchup), and likewise, both Zerg players are comfortable in ZvZ. Soulkey’s record shows him as probably the best ZvZ player in the ASL era, but Soma’s muta micro is objectively stronger, so it evens out. In short, every possible matchup is every players’ best matchup, and it’s hard to really predict the outcome.


Soma vs Mini

Soma has been missing for half a month. His sponbbang record is completely barren for October and he has been kind of the downlow on his stream, so either he is practicing in earnest with secret strategies, or he has shown a little less interest in BW as of late. Honestly, my guess is on the latter. If we were at the final bracket stage talking about someone like Flash or Bisu, I might consider secret practice, but Soma seems to have just kind of disappeared.

Considering that, I find it unlikely that Soma will succeed against Mini in full form. Of course, Mini is still recovering from an extreme slump since Season 7 after being completely humiliated by Last in the finals, so I don’t fully expect Mini to steamroll Soma. I think if Soma relies on the current muta-heavy meta and his innate talent, he might be able to pull out a win, but with both players shaking off some rust, it’s not a 100% thing.

Soma > Mini


Shuttle vs Soulkey

Coming back from his military service, Shuttle looks like his skill hasn’t atrophied at all, and based on his Ro24 performance, he might actually even be better than when he left. Soulkey is a fantastic player, but with disappointing performances in the last few seasons of ASL, he doesn’t seem to be on an upwards trajectory. Once the king of Zergs, he’s been usurped by ZerO, Action, and Soma.

Still, ZvP is Soulkey’s bread and butter. It’s by far his best matchup of all time, and when he’s in form, he looks like an absolute monster who can’t be stopped. Considering this matchup is skewed toward Zergs at the moment, I have to lend a bit of credit toward Soulkey and his history over the ASL Season 1 champ.

Soulkey > Shuttle


Assuming Soma and Soulkey both advance to the winners match, I believe strongly in Soulkey winning and topping the group, which I think would be quite a surprising result. Soulkey’s understanding of ZvZ just far outstrips Soma’s rookie experience, and with that knowledge of timings, larva management, and positioning, Soulkey can definitely overcome a lot of the mechanical edges Soma might have over him, especially in the Bo3. Then again, it is a ZvZ.

In a Protoss mirror, I would bet on Mini over Shuttle on average. Mini’s PvP record is punctuated with clever cheeses, solid shuttle control, and brilliant tech choices, but at the same time, Shuttle has constantly surprised me, and his victory over Best (arguably the best Protoss player right now) in the Ro24 with a delayed DT build was absolutely stunning. A Bo3 series between them could go either way, but I’d put money on Mini.

Whoever ends up in the final match, the Zerg player will win.


Soulkey and Soma qualify for the Ro8!