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[ASL10] Ro16 Preview P2: Crazy, Messy, Beautiful

Forum Index > BW General
20 CommentsPost a Reply
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[ASL10] Ro16 Preview P2: Crazy, Messy, Beautiful

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
October 11th, 2020 00:15 GMT
ASL Season 10 Banner
Last week's games were fantastic. Between JyJ's surprisingly great play which ultimately fell short to Best's struggle to survive in the Group of Death to Larva's July-esque ballsy all-in play, there are ample storylines to tell going into the Ro8 already. If you didn't get a chance go watch the games, we highly recommend you go back and watch them.

If there's anything we've learned from the map pool so far, it's that Optimizer and Plasma are (unsurprisingly) making life really difficult and producing incredibly weird and impossible games to predict. It's been clear that the players with the most tenacity and crisis management like Best, Larva, and Rush tend to come out on top, so expect to see more long, messy games with unpredictable outcomes as we head into the second half of the Ro16!


Group C by Blind-Rawr
Skill of the Draw



This may very well be the most viewed broadcast of the ASL ever. You've got (P)free who has managed to make the Ro16 after a bit of rust from his time away on military service. But that's not why you’re watching. (Z)hero is back too, bringing back the best ZvP like he never went away in the first place. But that's not why you’re watching either. (P)Snow continues his tear through the competition in his best offline run in the year thus far. But it's still not why you’re watching.

You’re watching because (R)Flash is playing Random.

The general understanding when it comes to dealing with random is that Terran does have the easiest, most if not all openings are viable to a varying degree. Fortunately for Flash, there are no Terrans in the group. On the other hand, Protoss would have a disadvantage against a Zerg roll because they need to play a very safe opening with a gate in the main against random, so Flash could take advantage of that against free and Snow. Zerg is easily his weakest race, with his ZvP in particular looking like probably his weakest matchup, Flash needs all the help he can get.

Flash’s Protoss is in a much better position. He's always had a good Protoss offrace (I’m not talking about just those old Proleague all-star games, but those are quite nice too) with a really good PvT and a rock solid PvZ. He even has a handful of games against hero where he's managed to perform very well executed +1 sair speedlot timing and +2 speedlot archon attacks on maps like Ringing Bloom.

If Flash rolls Terran in just about any game, he wins, but his opponents won’t know until they scout him. There is so much he can do in the early game with just that, and given that bad luck for Flash would be a 67% chance(or maybe even 50% considering that Snow and free are no slouches in PvP), he should be able to advance in first place unless he gets really unlucky.

Second place seems like a legitimate battle between Snow and hero. Winning the opening game changes things significantly for the winner, but that honestly depends on the random rolls that Flash gets in the winners game, Snow’s ZvP is very solid, but against hero, it needs to be stellar, and right now their overall head-to-head is 17-14 in favor of hero. These two definitely look like they’ll meet again in the final game regardless of the opening game outcome, and in a Bo3 with map picks, I’d take Snow over hero.

hero would still be lucky if Flash rolls Protoss. Just because he has lost to him doesn’t particularly mean that he can’t beat him. It's definitely easier for him to beat Flash’s Protoss than it would be with his subpar ZvZ or a nigh impossible ZvT (and we know how that looks). Against Snow and free, though, he should feel very comfortable rocking that 63% win rate and the winning head-to-head. However, the map pool is not the most favorable for Zerg, especially offline, putting him in tough positions when it comes to the Bo3 stage.

Free has one chance to set the group into a tailspin: get a favorable matchup against Flash. If Flash rolls Terran or Protoss, it's a very hard battle for him to get to the winners game, but even if he does, he pretty much doesn’t stand a chance against Snow's 70% win rate in PvP or hero, who he is 1-13 against.


(R)Flash and (P)Snow to advance to the Ro8!



Group D by Allyssa Grey
Razor's Edge



If Group B was the group of death, Group D is the group of small margins. It is by far the most evenly balanced group in the Ro16 with several A class players in some of their best matchups. As an entirely PZ group, we’ll be missing out on any Terran play, and unfortunately, the results may be heavily skewed based on razor thin margins. All it takes is one flub in muta micro in a ZvZ or a cannon built five seconds too late to lose.

In terms of PvZ, the Protoss players have an advantage. Historically, (P)Mini and (P)Shuttle have very powerful positional PvZ which emphasizes early pressure and drop play to push and pull the Zerg around the map and open up deadly timings, so I expect both of them to feel in their element. (Z)Soma and (Z)Soulkey also have very good records in this matchup once they’re able to get into their element, but often their strength in ZvP is overshadowed by their prowess in ZvT.

In mirror matchups, both Protoss players are comfortable in PvP (Mini actually has a lowkey great record in the matchup), and likewise, both Zerg players are comfortable in ZvZ. Soulkey’s record shows him as probably the best ZvZ player in the ASL era, but Soma’s muta micro is objectively stronger, so it evens out. In short, every possible matchup is every players’ best matchup, and it’s hard to really predict the outcome.


(Z)Soma vs (P)Mini

Soma has been missing for half a month. His sponbbang record is completely barren for October and he has been kind of the downlow on his stream, so either he is practicing in earnest with secret strategies, or he has shown a little less interest in BW as of late. Honestly, my guess is on the latter. If we were at the final bracket stage talking about someone like Flash or Bisu, I might consider secret practice, but Soma seems to have just kind of disappeared.

Considering that, I find it unlikely that Soma will succeed against Mini in full form. Of course, Mini is still recovering from an extreme slump since Season 7 after being completely humiliated by Last in the finals, so I don’t fully expect Mini to steamroll Soma. I think if Soma relies on the current muta-heavy meta and his innate talent, he might be able to pull out a win, but with both players shaking off some rust, it’s not a 100% thing.

Soma > Mini


(P)Shuttle vs (Z)Soulkey

Coming back from his military service, Shuttle looks like his skill hasn’t atrophied at all, and based on his Ro24 performance, he might actually even be better than when he left. Soulkey is a fantastic player, but with disappointing performances in the last few seasons of ASL, he doesn’t seem to be on an upwards trajectory. Once the king of Zergs, he’s been usurped by ZerO, Action, and Soma.

Still, ZvP is Soulkey’s bread and butter. It’s by far his best matchup of all time, and when he’s in form, he looks like an absolute monster who can’t be stopped. Considering this matchup is skewed toward Zergs at the moment, I have to lend a bit of credit toward Soulkey and his history over the ASL Season 1 champ.

Soulkey > Shuttle


Assuming Soma and Soulkey both advance to the winners match, I believe strongly in Soulkey winning and topping the group, which I think would be quite a surprising result. Soulkey’s understanding of ZvZ just far outstrips Soma’s rookie experience, and with that knowledge of timings, larva management, and positioning, Soulkey can definitely overcome a lot of the mechanical edges Soma might have over him, especially in the Bo3. Then again, it is a ZvZ.

In a Protoss mirror, I would bet on Mini over Shuttle on average. Mini’s PvP record is punctuated with clever cheeses, solid shuttle control, and brilliant tech choices, but at the same time, Shuttle has constantly surprised me, and his victory over Best (arguably the best Protoss player right now) in the Ro24 with a delayed DT build was absolutely stunning. A Bo3 series between them could go either way, but I’d put money on Mini.

Whoever ends up in the final match, the Zerg player will win.


(Z)Soulkey and (Z)Soma qualify for the Ro8!
Writers: BLinD-RawR, Allyssa Grey
Editor: Allyssa Grey
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TL+ Member
QOGQOG
Profile Joined July 2019
834 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-11 01:20:09
October 11 2020 01:12 GMT
#2
I'm not so sure about Flash advancing, but maybe I'm underestimating him. RvP is strong and he's gotten better since that TEN thing.

Soulkey’s record shows him as probably the best ZvZ player in the ASL era

... What? SoulKey is an infamous choker in ZvZ, with a terrible record. He lost in ASTL against hero and Hyuk. I looked at ASL 8 and 9 and he went 0:4 in the matchup.
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
October 11 2020 02:43 GMT
#3
On October 11 2020 10:12 QOGQOG wrote:
I'm not so sure about Flash advancing, but maybe I'm underestimating him. RvP is strong and he's gotten better since that TEN thing.

Show nested quote +
Soulkey’s record shows him as probably the best ZvZ player in the ASL era

... What? SoulKey is an infamous choker in ZvZ, with a terrible record. He lost in ASTL against hero and Hyuk. I looked at ASL 8 and 9 and he went 0:4 in the matchup.


Prior to Season 8 (right before he went off to the military), Soulkey had a win rate of 65% in ZvZ with several of his wins coming from KSL. For almost a year, he was considered the best Zerg player, and he was after effort retired—and the entire time, he kept up a really stellar ZvZ record with very well executed games. His current form is suspect, though, I agree.
StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
QOGQOG
Profile Joined July 2019
834 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-11 05:57:32
October 11 2020 05:30 GMT
#4
On October 11 2020 11:43 EsportsJohn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 11 2020 10:12 QOGQOG wrote:
I'm not so sure about Flash advancing, but maybe I'm underestimating him. RvP is strong and he's gotten better since that TEN thing.

Soulkey’s record shows him as probably the best ZvZ player in the ASL era

... What? SoulKey is an infamous choker in ZvZ, with a terrible record. He lost in ASTL against hero and Hyuk. I looked at ASL 8 and 9 and he went 0:4 in the matchup.


Prior to Season 8 (right before he went off to the military), Soulkey had a win rate of 65% in ZvZ with several of his wins coming from KSL. For almost a year, he was considered the best Zerg player, and he was after effort retired—and the entire time, he kept up a really stellar ZvZ record with very well executed games. His current form is suspect, though, I agree.

I got curious and did some Liquipedia-ing. Here are all SoulKey's offline ZvZs:

ASL 1 - Did not participate
ASL 2 - No ZvZ
ASL 3 - 1:0 PURPOSE (I have no idea who this is) 1:0 EffOrt
ASL 4 - 1:0 Jaedong 2:3 hero
ASL 5 - 0:1 Action
ASL 6 - 0:1 EffOrt
ASL 7 - No ZvZ
ASL 8 - 0:1 Action 0:2 Sacsri
ASL 9 - 0:1 Soma

Total ASL Score: 5 : 9
Last ZvZ victory in ASL: October 10, 2017

ASTL - 0:1 hero 0:1 Hyuk

Total ASTL Score: 0 : 2
Last ZvZ victory in ASTL: N/A

KSL 1 - No ZvZ
KSL 2 - 3:1 Larva
KSL 3 - 3:1 Action
KSL 4 - Did not participate

Total Score: 6 : 2
Last ZvZ victory: April 25, 2019

It's actually better than I thought. I'd forgotten about his performance in KSL. Maybe there's more hope than I'm giving him credit for. But given he hasn't won a single ZvZ for five seasons of ASL (and also, not entirely coincidentally, hasn't made it past the Ro16 in that time either) and has barely better than a 1/3 winrate, I think my incredulity at him being called "the best ZvZ player in the ASL era" is justifiable.

(Just as a note, I enjoyed the writeup. I just thought that claim was... questionable)
TaardadAiel
Profile Joined May 2017
Bulgaria750 Posts
October 11 2020 05:41 GMT
#5
On October 11 2020 14:30 QOGQOG wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 11 2020 11:43 EsportsJohn wrote:
On October 11 2020 10:12 QOGQOG wrote:
I'm not so sure about Flash advancing, but maybe I'm underestimating him. RvP is strong and he's gotten better since that TEN thing.

Soulkey’s record shows him as probably the best ZvZ player in the ASL era

... What? SoulKey is an infamous choker in ZvZ, with a terrible record. He lost in ASTL against hero and Hyuk. I looked at ASL 8 and 9 and he went 0:4 in the matchup.


Prior to Season 8 (right before he went off to the military), Soulkey had a win rate of 65% in ZvZ with several of his wins coming from KSL. For almost a year, he was considered the best Zerg player, and he was after effort retired—and the entire time, he kept up a really stellar ZvZ record with very well executed games. His current form is suspect, though, I agree.

I got curious and did some Liquipedia-ing. Here are all SoulKey's offline ZvZs:

ASL 1 - Did not participate
ASL 2 - No ZvZ
ASL 3 - 1:0 PURPOSE (I have no idea who this is) 1:0 EffOrt
ASL 4 - 1:0 Jaedong 2:3 hero
ASL 5 - 0:1 Action
ASL 6 - 0:1 EffOrt
ASL 7 - No ZvZ
ASL 8 - 0:1 Action 0:2 Sacsri
ASL 9 - 0:1 Soma

Total ASL Score: 5 : 9
Last ZvZ victory in ASL: October 10, 2017

ASTL - 0:1 hero 0:1 Hyuk

Total ASYL Score: 0 : 2
Last ZvZ victory in ASYL: N/A

KSL 1 - No ZvZ
KSL 2 - 3:1 Larva
KSL 3 - 3:1 Action
KSL 4 - Did not participate

Total Score: 6 : 4
Last ZvZ victory: April 25, 2019

It's actually better than I thought. I'd forgotten about his performance in KSL. Maybe there's more hope than I'm giving him credit for. But given he hasn't won a single ZvZ for five seasons of ASL (and also, not entirely coincidentally, hasn't made it past the Ro16 in that time either) and has barely better than a 1/3 winrate, so I think my incredulity at him being called "the best ZvZ player in the ASL era" is justifiable.

(Just as a note, I enjoyed the writeup. I just thought that claim was... questionable)


You are five minutes ahead of me, I was just going to check. I had the same impression, not backed by data, that ZvZs were what was leading to his early exits more often than not. And I too forgot about the KSL, where he seemed to be doing better in general (he won season 2, after all).

It seems, as usual with Soulkey, that it's a matter of choking and not general skill level. Applies to all matchups. Soulkey performing at 100% is champion material and has been since ASL3. I'll repeat myself: must be very tough to be a SK fan, his form varies so wildly.
WriterReV hwaiting!
KobraKay
Profile Joined March 2010
Portugal4231 Posts
October 11 2020 08:39 GMT
#6
Very nice write up. This time around, I wish your predictions come true!

Im excited and stressed out at the same time for what Flash will do.
CJ Fighting! (--.--)
Djabanete
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States2786 Posts
October 11 2020 08:54 GMT
#7
Good luck, Flash!
May the BeSt man win.
AntiHack
Profile Joined January 2009
Switzerland553 Posts
October 11 2020 14:47 GMT
#8
Imagine having this ASL10 right after one of the best season of all times... I mean BW is getting better and better, aging like wine I'd say
"I am very tired of your grammar errors" - Zoler[MB]
Zeronova
Profile Joined September 2020
54 Posts
October 11 2020 15:17 GMT
#9
+ Show Spoiler +
Super surprised by how well Flash did. I shouldn’t have been a hater. Shout out to Free too. He didn't make it out but I think he still exceeded expectations


For group D I agree with your assessment. Likely both Zergs get out. PvZ is hard. However, my heart says Shuttle. He is so impressive and just keeps smashing expectations.
RKC
Profile Joined June 2012
2848 Posts
October 11 2020 16:06 GMT
#10
Soulkey, I believe!

He just seems to get stuck at the group stages, for some reason. He'll show good games in BO3-B05. Really hope to see him advance through 1st place!
gg no re thx
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
October 11 2020 18:10 GMT
#11
On October 11 2020 14:30 QOGQOG wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 11 2020 11:43 EsportsJohn wrote:
On October 11 2020 10:12 QOGQOG wrote:
I'm not so sure about Flash advancing, but maybe I'm underestimating him. RvP is strong and he's gotten better since that TEN thing.

Soulkey’s record shows him as probably the best ZvZ player in the ASL era

... What? SoulKey is an infamous choker in ZvZ, with a terrible record. He lost in ASTL against hero and Hyuk. I looked at ASL 8 and 9 and he went 0:4 in the matchup.


Prior to Season 8 (right before he went off to the military), Soulkey had a win rate of 65% in ZvZ with several of his wins coming from KSL. For almost a year, he was considered the best Zerg player, and he was after effort retired—and the entire time, he kept up a really stellar ZvZ record with very well executed games. His current form is suspect, though, I agree.


Total Score: 6 : 2
Last ZvZ victory: April 25, 2019


Just want to point out that Soulkey was also gone to the military for 6-7 months, so using this date might be somewhat of an exaggeration.

It's actually better than I thought. I'd forgotten about his performance in KSL. Maybe there's more hope than I'm giving him credit for. But given he hasn't won a single ZvZ for five seasons of ASL (and also, not entirely coincidentally, hasn't made it past the Ro16 in that time either) and has barely better than a 1/3 winrate, I think my incredulity at him being called "the best ZvZ player in the ASL era" is justifiable.

(Just as a note, I enjoyed the writeup. I just thought that claim was... questionable)


I think he's definitely been a really bad slump ever since his KSL3 win, and he does tend to choke in offline events in general, so I agree that his chances at winning a ZvZ much less topping the group are slim and would be surprising, yet I think it makes the most sense. After doing some digging though, I agree that although Soulkey was very good with a decent ZvZ record prior to going to the military, Action seems to be the best ZvZ player in the ASL era since coming back in ASL6. Action has winning records against Jaedong, Effort (at the height of his strength), and Soulkey, so I think that makes him probably the best overall. (Funny note: Soma has a Bo3 victory over Action from last season tho).
StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
nimdil
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Poland3748 Posts
October 11 2020 20:34 GMT
#12
I haven't watched ASL for a while. Why Flash is playing random? To easy with Terran? Too boring?
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
October 11 2020 20:41 GMT
#13
On October 12 2020 05:34 nimdil wrote:
I haven't watched ASL for a while. Why Flash is playing random? To easy with Terran? Too boring?


Basically.
StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
Piste
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
6174 Posts
October 11 2020 21:07 GMT
#14
On October 12 2020 05:34 nimdil wrote:
I haven't watched ASL for a while. Why Flash is playing random? To easy with Terran? Too boring?

In the interview he said he wanted to challenge himself and is taking the challenge seriously.

Antisocialmunky
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States5912 Posts
October 11 2020 21:57 GMT
#15
On October 12 2020 05:41 EsportsJohn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 12 2020 05:34 nimdil wrote:
I haven't watched ASL for a while. Why Flash is playing random? To easy with Terran? Too boring?


Basically.


"[God] does not play dice with the universe" - Albert Einstein, 1926

"Watch me" - Flash, 2020
[゚n゚] SSSSssssssSSsss ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Marine/Raven Guide:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=163605
KobraKay
Profile Joined March 2010
Portugal4231 Posts
October 11 2020 23:00 GMT
#16
On October 12 2020 06:57 Antisocialmunky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 12 2020 05:41 EsportsJohn wrote:
On October 12 2020 05:34 nimdil wrote:
I haven't watched ASL for a while. Why Flash is playing random? To easy with Terran? Too boring?


Basically.


"[God] does not play dice with the universe" - Albert Einstein, 1926

"Watch me" - Flash, 2020


Oh the Flash memes hero! You're back at the same level as before xD
CJ Fighting! (--.--)
Antisocialmunky
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States5912 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-12 00:34:27
October 12 2020 00:33 GMT
#17
[image loading]
[゚n゚] SSSSssssssSSsss ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Marine/Raven Guide:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=163605
Sabu113
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States11047 Posts
October 12 2020 01:40 GMT
#18
On October 12 2020 05:34 nimdil wrote:
I haven't watched ASL for a while. Why Flash is playing random? To easy with Terran? Too boring?


Uh you need to watch. Badly. This Ro16 has been ridiculously good.

I'm just posting here preparing to be smug when mini dances on some zerg corpses. MINI HWAITING. (though I hope Soma is good )
Biomine is a drunken chick who is on industrial strength amphetamines and would just grab your dick and jerk it as hard and violently as she could while screaming 'OMG FUCK ME', because she saw it in a Sasha Grey video ...-Wombat_Ni
Amanebak
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Czech Republic528 Posts
October 12 2020 16:46 GMT
#19
On October 12 2020 09:33 Antisocialmunky wrote:
[image loading]

Haha, good job!
On October 12 2020 05:34 nimdil wrote:
I haven't watched ASL for a while. Why Flash is playing random? To easy with Terran? Too boring?

I bumped into this video:

BW
Golgotha
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Korea (South)8418 Posts
October 17 2020 14:21 GMT
#20
Haha. Good job Blind for the perfect flash and snow prediction
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