WCS12. hite SPARKYZ
Expected Lineup:
Leta
HoGiL
Horang2PuMaSnipers and Backups:
TazzaBritneyUgh. No ZvTers thanks to Yarnc getting kicked off, no protoss who can do anything but PvP, no real support for Leta at all actually. We've seen how Flash and Jaedong struggled when asked to carry their team for too long (Flash in 08-09, Jaedong in 09-10) and the same should happen to Leta this year. The one good thing is that against teams with Protoss aces Horang2 works as a good sniper since you don't want to send a terran (unless you have Flash/fantasy/Sea) against Leta, so teams will send a Protoss usually. Other than that I don't think hite's inexperienced new coach has many fancy lineup tricks up his sleeve.
11. Air Force ACE
Expected Lineup:
MuchRuByIrisPusanSnipers and Backups:
firebatheroggaemoRockM18MPeaceBy 2011 ACE will have no former starleague winners on its roster. This wouldn't be such a bad thing (most of the former winners won 5+ years ago) if ACE had gotten some better players, including some zergs. I'm still convinced Savior would have joined ACE if not for the scandal, but even lacking him, how about Nada? The new ACE looks extremely mediocre with a few solid players, a few bad ones, and no real ace. Not having a good zerg means not being able to rely on the coinflip nature of the matchup to win a few games in winner's league against better players. They'll also struggle in TvP, and possibly in PvZ. Iris is good but fills the same role as Ruby mostly.
I think they have just enough depth to leave the cellar.
10. Samsung KHAN
Expected Lineup:
StorkJangBigreatBraveSnipers and Backups:
SharpTurNReality10 seems a little low for a team with two players who are A-class at worst, and a B-class zerg, no? Well they have a huge problem with terran. firebathero is gone and January's attempts to replace him with Sharp, TurN, and Reality have failed. There is no good talent coming up from the KHAN b-team and the A-team is old and leaving. Plus, with the recent lack of success of Protoss I can't honestly put a Protoss-dependent team that high. I expect lots of PvT losses on terran-favored maps and lots of PvZ losses considering they don't have a PvZ specialist. great will continue to be mediocre.
9. STX Soul
Expected Lineup:
KalCalmShuttleFrOzenSnipers and Backups:
LastBogusModestyhero2nd to 9th? Yep. Last year at this time they looked like they could take the 09-10 proleague. Hwasin was good, Kal was good except for PvZ, Calm had just won the MSL (although mostly with ZvZ), and by.hero wasn't a complete joke. I was expecting Shuttle, Bogus, and Modesty to step up but it never happened. Ych showed tremendous potential in a preseason game against Free but produced mediocre results in minor league. With Hwasin gone STX doesn't have a good terran, Calm and Kal are slumping (even though Kal finally beat a good zerg in a BoX), and none of the backups stepped up to A-team level. With dismal results in minor league I don't see STX replacing any depth from inside. Shuttle will become a decent player but nothing special.
8. MBCGame HERO
Expected Lineup:
LightSeaHyuNTysonSnipers and Backups:
JaehoonSaintClareNo depth. No youth. 3rd to 8th is a big drop, but if you look at their minor league stats from last year the only good player was Iron, who moved on to SC2. MBC has been using Light/Sea/Hyun/X since July left and never got great results, and I doubt Tyson will be the player that fills the void. The Light/Sea/Hyun trio is more likely past their peak than before it despite Light and Sea's recent results in MSL, but yeah, I see their main team getting very exhausted from lack of support and the fact that they've been playing so long with no results. No return to playoffs here.
7. eSTRO
Expected Lineup:
ActionReallyFlyinghyvaaSnipers and Backups:
ClassicFancyGrapehwata7's high for a team that often gets great talent and does nothing with it (the BW equivalent of UCLA football). However, I think they have an outside chance at the playoffs because of Action. Action is really, really, really good. He's determined, he's got a great style, and he has a confident look that all the S-class players have. I think having a real ace will be the thing that motivates eSTRO to a great season. Really is good, Flying is good, hyvaa is ok, Classic has potential, and hwata was a number one draft pick that we haven't seen much of, but like fellow number one pick Flying he might break out of his shell 2 years after being drafted.
6. WeMade FOX
Expected Lineup:
BaByRorOPureMidasSnipers and Backups:
ShineNaDaMindMajorMidas is better than Shine. Once WeMade figured that out they had a relatively easy season, that and the race restriction lift allowing them to send 3-4 terrans. Roro's shown some ZvT improvement, Pure can win games occasionally, but the fact is that Terrans are doing well in BW right now, and WeMade has the best depth of any terran lineup in proleague. I can see Baby, Midas, Nada, Mind, and Major getting a decent amount of wins each. However, like MBC, age is a problem, with not that many good players other than Baby coming up, and WeMade generally doesn't buy new players either. Still they should make playoffs.
5. Hwaseung OZ
Expected Lineup:
JaedongHiyAKillerAnytimeSnipers and Backups:
LomoBackHoPerfectManPrincessI hear the doubters already. The fact is though, that OZ would likely have had winning records in Rounds 1 and 3 if BackHo hadn't been injured (Perfectman was an auto-loss in Round 1) and Jaedong hadn't slumped during Winner's League. The fact is that if Jaedong chooses any other time to slump, Hiya is looking like enough of an ace that OZ won't be too scarred. OZ is a good team. The haters are wrong. That is all I have to say. Also anytime (thanks harem) is coming back.
4. Woongjin Stars
Expected Lineup:
ZerOfreeNeo.G_SoulkeyKwanroSnipers and Backups:
MVPGuemChihOn_sinCrazy-HydraWell that's not fair is it? I gave KHAN a low prediction for having no good terrans, yet I give Stars 4th??? The cold hard facts are that Zergs are beating tosses right now, and Woongjin zergs are good. ZerO just had an awesome streak in GSM, Free got to the semifinals in his first OSL (not losing a single game to anyone but Flash), Soulkey has loads of potential (hon_sin may as well), and MVP and Kwanro can get some unexpected wins. "No terrans" is a bit wrong since MVP can get wins off of "better" tosses. They may be weak against Terran-heavy teams but I think they have enough good fresh talent to make a big splash in PL.
3. CJ Entus
Expected Lineup:
EffOrtSnowsKyHighHydraSnipers and Backups:
MovieBByongMIsOCJ always underperforms though, right? I have a theory about what Coach Cho was doing. Notice how Snow went from being an all-around good player in dream league (with an impressive PL win against Hyun) to a PvT specialist who could take out Flash? Or how ZvZ went from Effort's worst matchup to his best in a matter of months? I think Cho was having players overpractice for certain matchups, relying on his sniping skills to get wins. I think
KIMDONGWOO will be a bit more careful and just use CJ's natural talent (which they have, they are the defending dream league champs in addition to having a gold and silver medalist from last year) to win. As such I think a more careful, conservative CJ can grind out enough wins to get 3rd, and I actually think they have a good shot at making the finals.2. KT Rolster
Expected Lineup:
FlashStatsfOrGGVioletSnipers and Backups:
HoeJJaYellOwReachTempestI think 09-10 was half a fluke and half a good year. First of all, Luxury went 10-1 in R1, and he's gone. Luxury's fluky good start gave KT great momentum, and I think KT will be a lot more dependent on Flash to start the year. Also, despite the removal of race restrictions a good team has to be well-balanced and KT is not, with no really good Zergs. I think Stats, fOrGG, and Violet all had a good year last year and I think either fOrGG or Violet will slump this year pulling them out of first. Stats is too consistent and will never slump.
1. SK Telecom T1
Expected Lineup:
FantasyBisuBeSts2Snipers and Backups:
SsakBy.SunHyukn.Die_soOSKT1 right now reminds me of KT a year ago. Their star terran just learned how to be decent at bio TvZ (although I don't think fantasy's change will be anywhere near as dramatic as Flash's), their protosses are coming out of slumps (Violet ended 2009 well), and s2, also like Violet, is finally performing. With Cho gone SKT has easily the best coaching with Park, Oov, and Boxer. Finally, there's Ssak, who put on a decent showing against Jaedong in OSL. SKT should make a third straight trip to the finals and possibly win again.
Expected top wins:
1.
Flash2.
Jaedong3.
BaBy4.
Action5.
FantasyIndividual league contenders:
Flash, Jaedong, Fantasy, Bisu, EffOrt, Snow, BaBy, Action, Stork, LetaI predict all of the individual league contenders will make at least one final four, and that at least 5 out of the 6 individual league winners come from the above list.
