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10-11 Proleague Preview Magazine

Forum Index > BW General
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jalstar
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States8198 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-09-08 15:54:11
September 08 2010 04:24 GMT
#1
Happy 4000 posts to me! In return to TL, I give you my predictions and analysis for the upcoming proleague season, listed by reverse order of predicted finish.

12. hite SPARKYZ

Expected Lineup:
(T)Leta
(Z)HoGiL
(P)Horang2
(T)PuMa

Snipers and Backups:
(P)Tazza
(P)Britney

Ugh. No ZvTers thanks to Yarnc getting kicked off, no protoss who can do anything but PvP, no real support for Leta at all actually. We've seen how Flash and Jaedong struggled when asked to carry their team for too long (Flash in 08-09, Jaedong in 09-10) and the same should happen to Leta this year. The one good thing is that against teams with Protoss aces Horang2 works as a good sniper since you don't want to send a terran (unless you have Flash/fantasy/Sea) against Leta, so teams will send a Protoss usually. Other than that I don't think hite's inexperienced new coach has many fancy lineup tricks up his sleeve.

11. Air Force ACE

Expected Lineup:
(P)Much
(T)RuBy
(T)Iris
(P)Pusan

Snipers and Backups:
(T)firebathero
(Z)ggaemo
(P)Rock
(P)M18M
(Z)Peace

By 2011 ACE will have no former starleague winners on its roster. This wouldn't be such a bad thing (most of the former winners won 5+ years ago) if ACE had gotten some better players, including some zergs. I'm still convinced Savior would have joined ACE if not for the scandal, but even lacking him, how about Nada? The new ACE looks extremely mediocre with a few solid players, a few bad ones, and no real ace. Not having a good zerg means not being able to rely on the coinflip nature of the matchup to win a few games in winner's league against better players. They'll also struggle in TvP, and possibly in PvZ. Iris is good but fills the same role as Ruby mostly.
I think they have just enough depth to leave the cellar.

10. Samsung KHAN

Expected Lineup:
(P)Stork
(P)JangBi
(Z)great
(P)Brave

Snipers and Backups:
(T)Sharp
(T)TurN
(T)Reality

10 seems a little low for a team with two players who are A-class at worst, and a B-class zerg, no? Well they have a huge problem with terran. firebathero is gone and January's attempts to replace him with Sharp, TurN, and Reality have failed. There is no good talent coming up from the KHAN b-team and the A-team is old and leaving. Plus, with the recent lack of success of Protoss I can't honestly put a Protoss-dependent team that high. I expect lots of PvT losses on terran-favored maps and lots of PvZ losses considering they don't have a PvZ specialist. great will continue to be mediocre.

9. STX Soul

Expected Lineup:
(P)Kal
(Z)Calm
(P)Shuttle
(T)FrOzen

Snipers and Backups:
(T)Last
(T)Bogus
(Z)Modesty
(Z)hero

2nd to 9th? Yep. Last year at this time they looked like they could take the 09-10 proleague. Hwasin was good, Kal was good except for PvZ, Calm had just won the MSL (although mostly with ZvZ), and by.hero wasn't a complete joke. I was expecting Shuttle, Bogus, and Modesty to step up but it never happened. Ych showed tremendous potential in a preseason game against Free but produced mediocre results in minor league. With Hwasin gone STX doesn't have a good terran, Calm and Kal are slumping (even though Kal finally beat a good zerg in a BoX), and none of the backups stepped up to A-team level. With dismal results in minor league I don't see STX replacing any depth from inside. Shuttle will become a decent player but nothing special.

8. MBCGame HERO

Expected Lineup:
(T)Light
(T)Sea
(Z)HyuN
(P)Tyson

Snipers and Backups:
(P)Jaehoon
(Z)Saint
(P)Clare

No depth. No youth. 3rd to 8th is a big drop, but if you look at their minor league stats from last year the only good player was Iron, who moved on to SC2. MBC has been using Light/Sea/Hyun/X since July left and never got great results, and I doubt Tyson will be the player that fills the void. The Light/Sea/Hyun trio is more likely past their peak than before it despite Light and Sea's recent results in MSL, but yeah, I see their main team getting very exhausted from lack of support and the fact that they've been playing so long with no results. No return to playoffs here.

7. eSTRO

Expected Lineup:
(Z)Action
(T)Really
(P)Flying
(Z)hyvaa

Snipers and Backups:
(T)Classic
(T)Fancy
(P)Grape
(Z)hwata

7's high for a team that often gets great talent and does nothing with it (the BW equivalent of UCLA football). However, I think they have an outside chance at the playoffs because of Action. Action is really, really, really good. He's determined, he's got a great style, and he has a confident look that all the S-class players have. I think having a real ace will be the thing that motivates eSTRO to a great season. Really is good, Flying is good, hyvaa is ok, Classic has potential, and hwata was a number one draft pick that we haven't seen much of, but like fellow number one pick Flying he might break out of his shell 2 years after being drafted.

6. WeMade FOX

Expected Lineup:
(T)BaBy
(Z)RorO
(P)Pure
(T)Midas

Snipers and Backups:
(Z)Shine
(T)NaDa
(T)Mind
(T)Major

Midas is better than Shine. Once WeMade figured that out they had a relatively easy season, that and the race restriction lift allowing them to send 3-4 terrans. Roro's shown some ZvT improvement, Pure can win games occasionally, but the fact is that Terrans are doing well in BW right now, and WeMade has the best depth of any terran lineup in proleague. I can see Baby, Midas, Nada, Mind, and Major getting a decent amount of wins each. However, like MBC, age is a problem, with not that many good players other than Baby coming up, and WeMade generally doesn't buy new players either. Still they should make playoffs.

5. Hwaseung OZ

Expected Lineup:
(Z)Jaedong
(T)HiyA
(Z)Killer
(P)Anytime

Snipers and Backups:
(T)Lomo
(P)BackHo
(P)PerfectMan
(Z)Princess

I hear the doubters already. The fact is though, that OZ would likely have had winning records in Rounds 1 and 3 if BackHo hadn't been injured (Perfectman was an auto-loss in Round 1) and Jaedong hadn't slumped during Winner's League. The fact is that if Jaedong chooses any other time to slump, Hiya is looking like enough of an ace that OZ won't be too scarred. OZ is a good team. The haters are wrong. That is all I have to say. Also anytime (thanks harem) is coming back.

4. Woongjin Stars

Expected Lineup:
(Z)ZerO
(P)free
(Z)Neo.G_Soulkey
(Z)Kwanro

Snipers and Backups:
(T)MVP
(P)GuemChi
(T)hOn_sin
(Z)Crazy-Hydra

Well that's not fair is it? I gave KHAN a low prediction for having no good terrans, yet I give Stars 4th??? The cold hard facts are that Zergs are beating tosses right now, and Woongjin zergs are good. ZerO just had an awesome streak in GSM, Free got to the semifinals in his first OSL (not losing a single game to anyone but Flash), Soulkey has loads of potential (hon_sin may as well), and MVP and Kwanro can get some unexpected wins. "No terrans" is a bit wrong since MVP can get wins off of "better" tosses. They may be weak against Terran-heavy teams but I think they have enough good fresh talent to make a big splash in PL.

3. CJ Entus

Expected Lineup:
(Z)EffOrt
(P)Snow
(T)sKyHigh
(Z)Hydra

Snipers and Backups:
(P)Movie
(T)BByong
(Z)MIsO

CJ always underperforms though, right? I have a theory about what Coach Cho was doing. Notice how Snow went from being an all-around good player in dream league (with an impressive PL win against Hyun) to a PvT specialist who could take out Flash? Or how ZvZ went from Effort's worst matchup to his best in a matter of months? I think Cho was having players overpractice for certain matchups, relying on his sniping skills to get wins. I think (Z)KIMDONGWOO will be a bit more careful and just use CJ's natural talent (which they have, they are the defending dream league champs in addition to having a gold and silver medalist from last year) to win. As such I think a more careful, conservative CJ can grind out enough wins to get 3rd, and I actually think they have a good shot at making the finals.

2. KT Rolster

Expected Lineup:
(T)Flash
(P)Stats
(T)fOrGG
(P)Violet

Snipers and Backups:
(Z)HoeJJa
(Z)YellOw
(P)Reach
(P)Tempest

I think 09-10 was half a fluke and half a good year. First of all, Luxury went 10-1 in R1, and he's gone. Luxury's fluky good start gave KT great momentum, and I think KT will be a lot more dependent on Flash to start the year. Also, despite the removal of race restrictions a good team has to be well-balanced and KT is not, with no really good Zergs. I think Stats, fOrGG, and Violet all had a good year last year and I think either fOrGG or Violet will slump this year pulling them out of first. Stats is too consistent and will never slump.

1. SK Telecom T1

Expected Lineup:
(T)Fantasy
(P)Bisu
(P)BeSt
(Z)s2

Snipers and Backups:
(T)Ssak
(P)By.Sun
(Z)Hyuk
(Z)n.Die_soO

SKT1 right now reminds me of KT a year ago. Their star terran just learned how to be decent at bio TvZ (although I don't think fantasy's change will be anywhere near as dramatic as Flash's), their protosses are coming out of slumps (Violet ended 2009 well), and s2, also like Violet, is finally performing. With Cho gone SKT has easily the best coaching with Park, Oov, and Boxer. Finally, there's Ssak, who put on a decent showing against Jaedong in OSL. SKT should make a third straight trip to the finals and possibly win again.

Expected top wins:
1. (T)Flash
2. (Z)Jaedong
3. (T)BaBy
4. (Z)Action
5. (T)Fantasy

Individual league contenders:
(T)Flash, (Z)Jaedong, (T)Fantasy, (P)Bisu, (Z)EffOrt, (P)Snow, (T)BaBy, (Z)Action, (P)Stork, (T)Leta

I predict all of the individual league contenders will make at least one final four, and that at least 5 out of the 6 individual league winners come from the above list.
seRapH
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9756 Posts
September 08 2010 04:27 GMT
#2
HAPPY 4K!

gogo s2! :D

also have you seen that things about the mysterious player trading?
boomer hands
jalstar
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States8198 Posts
September 08 2010 04:28 GMT
#3
On September 08 2010 13:27 seRapH wrote:
HAPPY 4K!

gogo s2! :D

also have you seen that things about the mysterious player trading?


I will update after more details, I expect I'll be moving STX up a few spots.
kineSiS-
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
Korea (South)1068 Posts
September 08 2010 04:33 GMT
#4
Nice
monk
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States8476 Posts
September 08 2010 04:33 GMT
#5
I think you're giving action and baby way too much credit. Action has not shown enough potential to be a top 5 proleague player and baby has a tendency to slump way too hard. I would guess that they would be top 10 to 15 and rank 8 at best.
Moderator
jalstar
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States8198 Posts
September 08 2010 04:35 GMT
#6
On September 08 2010 13:33 4kmonk wrote:
I think you're giving action and baby way too much credit. Action has not shown enough potential to be a top 5 proleague player and baby has a tendency to slump way too hard. I would guess that they would be top 10 to 15 and rank 8 at best.


When in doubt about how well an inconsistent player would do, I looked at how long they'd been around. The newer players I gave a bit more lee-way too than older players, who often burn out.

Who else would you put top 5? Stork, ZerO? I can see them being top 5.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
September 08 2010 04:37 GMT
#7
I agree all except: KT

2. KT Rolster

Expected Lineup:
(T)(T)Flash
(R)Sniper
(R)Sniper
(R)Sniper

Snipers and Backups:
(R)Sniper
(R)Sniper
(R)Sniper
(R)Sniper
Anomarad
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada565 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-09-08 04:39:25
September 08 2010 04:37 GMT
#8
Sucks that Yellow and Reach left ACE... ACE was actually doing well at the end and now we'll barely see them play. T_T
vectorix108
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States4633 Posts
September 08 2010 04:37 GMT
#9
oh this is awesome!!
but one thing, Iris is leaving CJ for airforce ACE
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=147169
Aka XephyR/Shaneyesss
infinitestory
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4053 Posts
September 08 2010 04:40 GMT
#10
Grats on 4k and excellent post!

You mentioned Violet in the SKT portion, did you mean to say Bisu?
Translator:3
jalstar
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States8198 Posts
September 08 2010 04:40 GMT
#11
On September 08 2010 13:37 vectorix108 wrote:
oh this is awesome!!
but one thing, Iris is leaving CJ for airforce ACE
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=147169


Thanks for the info, I might move ACE up to 11th now but I think CJ will stay at 3rd.
Chaos
Profile Joined July 2009
United States772 Posts
September 08 2010 04:40 GMT
#12
I really can't see Action in the top 5 wins but a lot of your predictions are well thought out. Very well done. I would switch STX with eSTRO personally but I think eSTRO is going to have a bad year.
FruitMarket
nitdkim
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
1264 Posts
September 08 2010 04:42 GMT
#13
I think MBC is a bit underrated in your view... at least top4 in 2010-2011 season
PM me if you want random korean images translated.
jalstar
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States8198 Posts
September 08 2010 04:44 GMT
#14
On September 08 2010 13:42 nitdkim wrote:
I think MBC is a bit underrated in your view... at least top4 in 2010-2011 season


Why? The Light/Sea/Hyun trio isn't going to produce forever, and there's no one coming in to replace them. Pusan, Peace, and Iron are all gone. Saint is not that good any more. Maybe if Tyson has a breakout season they'll make playoffs but otherwise I seriously doubt it.
Lightwip
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5497 Posts
September 08 2010 04:45 GMT
#15
I hope Ruby becomes a good player. He certainly has the capacity to be a top player and he needs to realize his potential.
If you are not Bisu, chances are I hate you.
SimonB
Profile Joined September 2008
United States1088 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-09-08 04:50:48
September 08 2010 04:50 GMT
#16
Good preview, though of course I disagree on #1.

Stats is a solid player, but I still look at Violet as our top Protoss going forward. He slumped a bunch last season, but he can be as good as anybody.
FiWiFaKi
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Canada9858 Posts
September 08 2010 04:51 GMT
#17
I agree with everything besides Ozs line up. They already started replacing Lomo with BacHo, who put in several good games. I think Oz will be higher this year too, I feel like their lesser players are stepping up and Hiya is playing great.
In life, the journey is more satisfying than the destination. || .::Entrepreneurship::. Living a few years of your life like most people won't, so that you can spend the rest of your life like most people can't || Mechanical Engineering & Economics Major
Lightwip
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5497 Posts
September 08 2010 04:56 GMT
#18
On September 08 2010 13:50 SimonB wrote:
Good preview, though of course I disagree on #1.

Stats is a solid player, but I still look at Violet as our top Protoss going forward. He slumped a bunch last season, but he can be as good as anybody.

Violet, as cool as he is, is only decent at best. I think Stats has more potential.
+ Show Spoiler +
But he's one of the few tosses I don't like because he's fucking ugly.
If you are not Bisu, chances are I hate you.
Kaolla
Profile Joined January 2003
China2999 Posts
September 08 2010 04:59 GMT
#19
On September 08 2010 13:37 Anomarad wrote:
Sucks that Yellow and Reach left ACE... ACE was actually doing well at the end and now we'll barely see them play. T_T


replace barely with never and add again to the end of the sentence, but yea that rly does suck ;(
It was rly a nice group, hope they can keep the team spirit high.
its me
AssuredVacancy
Profile Blog Joined September 2008
United States1167 Posts
September 08 2010 04:59 GMT
#20
Woah why is FBH in ace back ups? I think he should at least be on the main players list..
We spend our youth attaining wealth, and our wealth attaining youth.
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