Happy 4000 posts to me! In return to TL, I give you my predictions and analysis for the upcoming proleague season, listed by reverse order of predicted finish.
Ugh. No ZvTers thanks to Yarnc getting kicked off, no protoss who can do anything but PvP, no real support for Leta at all actually. We've seen how Flash and Jaedong struggled when asked to carry their team for too long (Flash in 08-09, Jaedong in 09-10) and the same should happen to Leta this year. The one good thing is that against teams with Protoss aces Horang2 works as a good sniper since you don't want to send a terran (unless you have Flash/fantasy/Sea) against Leta, so teams will send a Protoss usually. Other than that I don't think hite's inexperienced new coach has many fancy lineup tricks up his sleeve.
By 2011 ACE will have no former starleague winners on its roster. This wouldn't be such a bad thing (most of the former winners won 5+ years ago) if ACE had gotten some better players, including some zergs. I'm still convinced Savior would have joined ACE if not for the scandal, but even lacking him, how about Nada? The new ACE looks extremely mediocre with a few solid players, a few bad ones, and no real ace. Not having a good zerg means not being able to rely on the coinflip nature of the matchup to win a few games in winner's league against better players. They'll also struggle in TvP, and possibly in PvZ. Iris is good but fills the same role as Ruby mostly. I think they have just enough depth to leave the cellar.
10 seems a little low for a team with two players who are A-class at worst, and a B-class zerg, no? Well they have a huge problem with terran. firebathero is gone and January's attempts to replace him with Sharp, TurN, and Reality have failed. There is no good talent coming up from the KHAN b-team and the A-team is old and leaving. Plus, with the recent lack of success of Protoss I can't honestly put a Protoss-dependent team that high. I expect lots of PvT losses on terran-favored maps and lots of PvZ losses considering they don't have a PvZ specialist. great will continue to be mediocre.
2nd to 9th? Yep. Last year at this time they looked like they could take the 09-10 proleague. Hwasin was good, Kal was good except for PvZ, Calm had just won the MSL (although mostly with ZvZ), and by.hero wasn't a complete joke. I was expecting Shuttle, Bogus, and Modesty to step up but it never happened. Ych showed tremendous potential in a preseason game against Free but produced mediocre results in minor league. With Hwasin gone STX doesn't have a good terran, Calm and Kal are slumping (even though Kal finally beat a good zerg in a BoX), and none of the backups stepped up to A-team level. With dismal results in minor league I don't see STX replacing any depth from inside. Shuttle will become a decent player but nothing special.
No depth. No youth. 3rd to 8th is a big drop, but if you look at their minor league stats from last year the only good player was Iron, who moved on to SC2. MBC has been using Light/Sea/Hyun/X since July left and never got great results, and I doubt Tyson will be the player that fills the void. The Light/Sea/Hyun trio is more likely past their peak than before it despite Light and Sea's recent results in MSL, but yeah, I see their main team getting very exhausted from lack of support and the fact that they've been playing so long with no results. No return to playoffs here.
7's high for a team that often gets great talent and does nothing with it (the BW equivalent of UCLA football). However, I think they have an outside chance at the playoffs because of Action. Action is really, really, really good. He's determined, he's got a great style, and he has a confident look that all the S-class players have. I think having a real ace will be the thing that motivates eSTRO to a great season. Really is good, Flying is good, hyvaa is ok, Classic has potential, and hwata was a number one draft pick that we haven't seen much of, but like fellow number one pick Flying he might break out of his shell 2 years after being drafted.
Midas is better than Shine. Once WeMade figured that out they had a relatively easy season, that and the race restriction lift allowing them to send 3-4 terrans. Roro's shown some ZvT improvement, Pure can win games occasionally, but the fact is that Terrans are doing well in BW right now, and WeMade has the best depth of any terran lineup in proleague. I can see Baby, Midas, Nada, Mind, and Major getting a decent amount of wins each. However, like MBC, age is a problem, with not that many good players other than Baby coming up, and WeMade generally doesn't buy new players either. Still they should make playoffs.
I hear the doubters already. The fact is though, that OZ would likely have had winning records in Rounds 1 and 3 if BackHo hadn't been injured (Perfectman was an auto-loss in Round 1) and Jaedong hadn't slumped during Winner's League. The fact is that if Jaedong chooses any other time to slump, Hiya is looking like enough of an ace that OZ won't be too scarred. OZ is a good team. The haters are wrong. That is all I have to say. Also anytime (thanks harem) is coming back.
Well that's not fair is it? I gave KHAN a low prediction for having no good terrans, yet I give Stars 4th??? The cold hard facts are that Zergs are beating tosses right now, and Woongjin zergs are good. ZerO just had an awesome streak in GSM, Free got to the semifinals in his first OSL (not losing a single game to anyone but Flash), Soulkey has loads of potential (hon_sin may as well), and MVP and Kwanro can get some unexpected wins. "No terrans" is a bit wrong since MVP can get wins off of "better" tosses. They may be weak against Terran-heavy teams but I think they have enough good fresh talent to make a big splash in PL.
CJ always underperforms though, right? I have a theory about what Coach Cho was doing. Notice how Snow went from being an all-around good player in dream league (with an impressive PL win against Hyun) to a PvT specialist who could take out Flash? Or how ZvZ went from Effort's worst matchup to his best in a matter of months? I think Cho was having players overpractice for certain matchups, relying on his sniping skills to get wins. I think KIMDONGWOO will be a bit more careful and just use CJ's natural talent (which they have, they are the defending dream league champs in addition to having a gold and silver medalist from last year) to win. As such I think a more careful, conservative CJ can grind out enough wins to get 3rd, and I actually think they have a good shot at making the finals.
I think 09-10 was half a fluke and half a good year. First of all, Luxury went 10-1 in R1, and he's gone. Luxury's fluky good start gave KT great momentum, and I think KT will be a lot more dependent on Flash to start the year. Also, despite the removal of race restrictions a good team has to be well-balanced and KT is not, with no really good Zergs. I think Stats, fOrGG, and Violet all had a good year last year and I think either fOrGG or Violet will slump this year pulling them out of first. Stats is too consistent and will never slump.
SKT1 right now reminds me of KT a year ago. Their star terran just learned how to be decent at bio TvZ (although I don't think fantasy's change will be anywhere near as dramatic as Flash's), their protosses are coming out of slumps (Violet ended 2009 well), and s2, also like Violet, is finally performing. With Cho gone SKT has easily the best coaching with Park, Oov, and Boxer. Finally, there's Ssak, who put on a decent showing against Jaedong in OSL. SKT should make a third straight trip to the finals and possibly win again.
I predict all of the individual league contenders will make at least one final four, and that at least 5 out of the 6 individual league winners come from the above list.
I think you're giving action and baby way too much credit. Action has not shown enough potential to be a top 5 proleague player and baby has a tendency to slump way too hard. I would guess that they would be top 10 to 15 and rank 8 at best.
On September 08 2010 13:33 4kmonk wrote: I think you're giving action and baby way too much credit. Action has not shown enough potential to be a top 5 proleague player and baby has a tendency to slump way too hard. I would guess that they would be top 10 to 15 and rank 8 at best.
When in doubt about how well an inconsistent player would do, I looked at how long they'd been around. The newer players I gave a bit more lee-way too than older players, who often burn out.
Who else would you put top 5? Stork, ZerO? I can see them being top 5.
I really can't see Action in the top 5 wins but a lot of your predictions are well thought out. Very well done. I would switch STX with eSTRO personally but I think eSTRO is going to have a bad year.
On September 08 2010 13:42 nitdkim wrote: I think MBC is a bit underrated in your view... at least top4 in 2010-2011 season
Why? The Light/Sea/Hyun trio isn't going to produce forever, and there's no one coming in to replace them. Pusan, Peace, and Iron are all gone. Saint is not that good any more. Maybe if Tyson has a breakout season they'll make playoffs but otherwise I seriously doubt it.
Stats is a solid player, but I still look at Violet as our top Protoss going forward. He slumped a bunch last season, but he can be as good as anybody.
I agree with everything besides Ozs line up. They already started replacing Lomo with BacHo, who put in several good games. I think Oz will be higher this year too, I feel like their lesser players are stepping up and Hiya is playing great.
On September 08 2010 13:50 SimonB wrote: Good preview, though of course I disagree on #1.
Stats is a solid player, but I still look at Violet as our top Protoss going forward. He slumped a bunch last season, but he can be as good as anybody.
Violet, as cool as he is, is only decent at best. I think Stats has more potential. + Show Spoiler +
But he's one of the few tosses I don't like because he's fucking ugly.
On September 08 2010 13:37 Anomarad wrote: Sucks that Yellow and Reach left ACE... ACE was actually doing well at the end and now we'll barely see them play. T_T
replace barely with never and add again to the end of the sentence, but yea that rly does suck ;( It was rly a nice group, hope they can keep the team spirit high.
you forgot Oz's 2nd and 3rd best players, piratezerg and moustachezerg (others will mention ozsucksballswithoutme, but i think he's horribly overrated). nice preview otherwise although i disagree on the 1/2 slot, and it will be interesting to see how it changes if any of those rumored transfers take place.
On September 08 2010 13:24 jalstar wrote: 7's high for a team that often gets great talent and does nothing with it (the BW equivalent of UCLA football).
Nice predictions, so excited to see yellow and reach back in KT. They may still depend on Flash a crap load and fail to meet expectations, but they'll be the sexiest team BY FAR.
On September 08 2010 13:24 jalstar wrote: 7's high for a team that often gets great talent and does nothing with it (the BW equivalent of UCLA football).
i love you
i go to ucla and am very depressed about this, kansas state sucks this year, abandoning all hope
SKT1 right now reminds me of KT a year ago. Their star terran just learned how to be decent at bio TvZ (although I don't think fantasy's change will be anywhere near as dramatic as Flash's), their protosses are coming out of slumps (Violet ended 2009 well), and s2, also like Violet, is finally performing. With Cho gone SKT has easily the best coaching with Park, Oov, and Boxer. Finally, there's Ssak, who put on a decent showing against Jaedong in OSL. SKT should make a third straight trip to the finals and possibly win again.
Wat. :p
Sad to see Wemade being projected to only 6th-I know, a very selfish/greedy wish because Wemade, from really an outside standpoint, really is around 6th place. I just hope they have another deep playoff run. Would make me happy ^^
SKT1 right now reminds me of KT a year ago. Their star terran just learned how to be decent at bio TvZ (although I don't think fantasy's change will be anywhere near as dramatic as Flash's), their protosses are coming out of slumps (Violet ended 2009 well), and s2, also like Violet, is finally performing. With Cho gone SKT has easily the best coaching with Park, Oov, and Boxer. Finally, there's Ssak, who put on a decent showing against Jaedong in OSL. SKT should make a third straight trip to the finals and possibly win again.
Wat. :p
Sad to see Wemade being projected to only 6th-I know, a very selfish/greedy wish because Wemade, from really an outside standpoint, really is around 6th place. I just hope they have another deep playoff run. Would make me happy ^^
Was commenting on how SKT right now is like KT a year ago, when Violet and Stats were just starting to show potential. s2, Ssak, n.Die_soO have been improving lately.
KT will be interesting this year. In general their team is much stronger than it was R1 of last season but they're lacking Luxury. Lux really served as a strong number 2 player in that round. Now I would say that KT has 3 solid number 3 players. Nothing against Stats, Violet, or Forgg and perhaps they'll develop more through this season.
On September 08 2010 13:33 4kmonk wrote: I think you're giving Action and BaBy way too much credit. Action has not shown enough potential to be a top 5 proleague player and BaBy has a tendency to slump way too hard. I would guess that they would be top 10 to 15 and rank 8 at best.
When in doubt about how well an inconsistent player would do, I looked at how long they'd been around. The newer players I gave a bit more lee-way too than older players, who often burn out.
Who else would you put top 5? Stork, ZerO? I can see them being top 5.
Stork has a history of not doing super well in proleague. Other realistic top 5 contenders include ZerO, Leta, EffOrt, Fantasy, Light, and Sea. I think you really underestimate Light and Sea, as they're the 3rd and 4th best terrans atm and they both looked pretty good in the starleagues.
Also, I think you highly underestimate Stats. If you watch his games, you'll see that he's really solid. I agree that KT won't get 1st in the regular season this season though.
Flash is going to slump now. He has over-extended with his performance and he can't keep it up like that much longer, especially if he'll have to carry his team once again. The break can not be caught = exhaustion = slump.
On September 08 2010 21:30 Garnet wrote: Why call it "Preview Magazine" if it's just your predictions?
I understand that it might be disappointing because it comes up in the left hand bar as '10-11 Proleague Preview' so you may be expecting official news rather than this, however I believe jalstar called it Preview Magazine because it's a fun read with a lot of content. The same way Pony Express is a catchy name.
OT tiny typo - I don't wish to be pedantic at all but figured you might want to edit it out:
Roro's shone[shown] some ZvT improvement, Pure can win games occasionally,
Really enjoyed reading this jalstar . It's great to see new content in the BW section as so often we only have Milkis' tasty tidbits to feed on and then a bunch of old threads being bumped. Many thanks for this and the Fantasy OSL thread.
Very solid arguments there. I'd love to disagree but unfortuntely SKT is favourite over KT to win. I also expect Best to have a very solid season, possibly fixing his PvZ and doing well in individual leagues.
On September 09 2010 00:26 valaki wrote: Wait so it's 100% confirmed that there will be an entire 10-11 season?
- KeSPA will be going on with the next season of Proleague, regardless of negotiations. Gretech's personnel responds that KeSPA will not avoid a lawsuit if this happens.
- KeSPA will be going on with the next season of Proleague, regardless of negotiations. Gretech's personnel responds that KeSPA will not avoid a lawsuit if this happens.
i think you are wrong about SKT. they have two good players, best and fantasy bisu is totally washed out, he will win against scrubs but once push comes to shove, he falters like a house of cards. i want to see him use carriers more. more epic fail
On September 09 2010 02:16 Garaman wrote: bisu is totally washed out, he will win against scrubs but once push comes to shove, he falters like a house of cards.
On September 09 2010 02:16 Garaman wrote: bisu is totally washed out, he will win against scrubs but once push comes to shove, he falters like a house of cards.
Bisu has recovered from much lower lows before.
As much as I want Bisu to step up his play to what we were used to, I don't think he's able to do so. At best he's gonna pull a July and win another league before he's completely burned out.Still,I expect him to do well in Proleague though, having really good records at least for one or two rounds.
I agree with all the facts you've written, but i feel like my placement of teams would be different. With a little luck, i could see some teams like OZ doing pretty well, and with a little luck, anything is possible. GL with these predictions though.
I'm not too sure if I could agree with you on Bisu being a contender for the upcoming Starleagues. His recent performance has shown that Bisu still has a lot of holes in his play, and he really needs to step up before I will consider him for a starleague.
On September 09 2010 03:13 FabledIntegral wrote: Concerning ACE and starleague winners, didn't Rock win vs Jaedong?
That was when they had a 3rd place game and a special tournament to determine the 4th seed. Rock beat Jaedong for the 4th seed but Jaedong won the OSL.
On September 09 2010 03:13 FabledIntegral wrote: Concerning ACE and starleague winners, didn't Rock win vs Jaedong?
That was when they had a 3rd place game and a special tournament to determine the 4th seed. Rock beat Jaedong for the 4th seed but Jaedong won the OSL.
Hehe Rock beat both Jaedong and Flash at same tournament
No way man, KT's gonna win again. They won without Yellow and Reach, and now, they have to win with Yellow and Reach. I imagine a 7set grand final between Yellow and Boxer in the finals with an epic hour long game with Yellow winning. THat would be awesome!!!
On September 09 2010 08:05 Tazza wrote: No way man, KT's gonna win again. They won without Yellow and Reach, and now, they have to win with Yellow and Reach. I imagine a 7set grand final between Yellow and Boxer in the finals with an epic hour long game with Yellow winning. THat would be awesome!!!
Yellow coming back means they get the silver curse again LOL
Ace got a good lineup this year, Iris is a not too bad Terran in my eyes even though i don't like him much. Also, KT got lot's of awesome players now like Reach and YellOw so i'll probably cheer for them if they actually send them out in proleague.
I have a feeling next years Proleague will be really good.
On September 09 2010 08:05 Tazza wrote: No way man, KT's gonna win again. They won without Yellow and Reach, and now, they have to win with Yellow and Reach. I imagine a 7set grand final between Yellow and Boxer in the finals with an epic hour long game with Yellow winning. THat would be awesome!!!
Actually they tried their ass off to win the previous SPL because Yellow is coming back this season.
On September 20 2010 12:44 So no fek wrote: Action, Flying, and Really to CJ. >_>
God knows CJ will be needing them with Effort leaving a void.
Yeah.
I don't think Action an flat out replace Effort (in terms of skill, as he'll never replace Effort in my heart), but I definitely feel he has the potential to be one of the best Zergs... if BW manages to live for a few more seasons. :/
Another Protoss would definitely be a help, since Movie slumps pretty frequently, and Snow could probably use the back up.
Before losing Effort, Terran was definitely our weakest line, though. Skyhigh is a TvT beast, but okay at best at other matchups (don't get me started on the "at worst".) And now that Iris is gone, his only backup would come from the Bteamers, promising as they may be.
On September 20 2010 13:42 jalstar wrote: well this is all fucked
Hahaha. Well, it's not like we can blame you for failing to foresee all these drastic changes in the BW scene. The last month has been a complete shitstorm.
Kwanro moving to SK Telecom helps to secure their place at number one on the list (though personally I would rank KT higher). CJ will obviously have to drop down a few places now that effort is gone. KT is unaffected. Woongjin will have to drop down a few places after Kwanro, MVP and guemchi leaving. It's probably not worth making a new list yet though until we see if anyone else leaves.
EDIT: Forget what I said below - saw you are aware. Nice looking predictions though, I suggest a magazine on individual league contenders if the depth isn't too arduous.
Edit SKT with Kwanro in the list - mayhaps replacing s2?
Action has always seemed hit or miss to me. I don't think he's as strong as some people are predicting. I do think he has a lot of room to get better though. I've seen him improving with experience.
If he really is that good, I think he will have a very unique style that I've already seen from him that could possibly mix zerg strategy up a little bit. I think by the end of 2011 he could be really strong.
Thanks for writing this. I'm now excited for the next PL.
SKT1 looks a lot stronger with Kwanro. They look really really strong and I think they might have the line-up they need now to outmuscle KT. Flash is still a big threat but now they won't be forced into a disaster like the last PL finals where they had to field HyuK against him of all players.
I have some hope for the Khan B-team I think theres some terran gem that shall soon be discovered one can hope. Of course I really think Oz is gonna destroy this season, Especially if Hiya plays up to snuff. Good ol Hiya
If we don't see ZerO getting over his nerves anytime soon, I expect Neo.GSoulkey to be the next Zerg after him. We will TONS of Soulkey's game in the next season on Proleague and MAYBE he'll make to a SL. The one Zerg that I would want to see succeed if definitely Action. Gosh, I might have said this before but if Action and Kwanro combine themselves then we will see the strongest Zerg player ever.
Woongjin out of contention because of lack of depth (8th?) CJ out of contention because of the lack of an ace (Snow can't learn PvP/PvZ that quickly) (7th?) SKT still first because of Kwanro. Nada leaving WeMade won't affect them too much imo. MBC down a spot because of their coaching staff being gutted. Does eSTRO even exist anymore?
I laughed so VERY VERY hard at Baby being put as 3rd for wins. Really think it's a funny and highly improbable prediction. Also STX 9th +_________________+ you must be having a laugh..................... If they finish 9th or below I will sell my cute puppies to science.
Putting them behind MBC and ESTRO: +________________________________________________________________+
On September 23 2010 09:10 Xiphos wrote: If we don't see ZerO getting over his nerves anytime soon, I expect Neo.GSoulkey to be the next Zerg after him. We will TONS of Soulkey's game in the next season on Proleague and MAYBE he'll make to a SL. The one Zerg that I would want to see succeed if definitely Action. Gosh, I might have said this before but if Action and Kwanro combine themselves then we will see the strongest Zerg player ever.
I think this needs a bump. Considering all the changes, I think that SKT/KT take #1/2 still, and it depends how good Bisu does who deserves #1(I'd put SKT at #1 because SKT has S-class Bisu and I would say Fantasy is also S-class) Swap Woongjin and CJ-hite, because Woongjin has free/zero/really/soulkey, an epic team, whereas hite-CJ lost effort and just got Leta in return. Not a very good tradeoff, but still worthy of #4. I still hope to see Snow become a top protoss. I'd drop Oz down one and put STX up to 5th, because Kal has been showing improvement and Clam can't still be a failure while Oz may or may not benefit from a lineup of Jaedong/Hiya/Backho/failure. Although I'm not too sure about this. MBC, Khan, ACE are in their proper place. I really want Stork to step it up and prove me wrong though.
Woongjin looks great, I don't know whether theres a better ZTP combo than Zero, Free and Really. If Really can adjust to the new team then they are never out of a single bo5 match all year, even down 2-0.
On October 14 2010 01:35 MrWinkles wrote: Woongjin looks great, I don't know whether theres a better ZTP combo than Zero, Free and Really. If Really can adjust to the new team then they are never out of a single bo5 match all year, even down 2-0.
On October 14 2010 01:35 MrWinkles wrote: Woongjin looks great, I don't know whether theres a better ZTP combo than Zero, Free and Really. If Really can adjust to the new team then they are never out of a single bo5 match all year, even down 2-0.
Action Stats Flash Bisu Fantasy Hyuk?/Kwanro? both could be better. But switching teams generally sends a player into a slump. Hopefully this won't. I think that Woongjin can qualify for playoffs this time around though.
On October 14 2010 01:35 MrWinkles wrote: Woongjin looks great, I don't know whether theres a better ZTP combo than Zero, Free and Really. If Really can adjust to the new team then they are never out of a single bo5 match all year, even down 2-0.
Action Stats Flash Bisu Fantasy Hyuk?/Kwanro? both could be better. But switching teams generally sends a player into a slump. Hopefully this won't. I think that Woongjin can qualify for playoffs this time around though.
Kwanro didnt slump last year, I doubt he will this year. Action will probally fit very well into KT imo... ( I really, REALLY want not to think otherwise =D)
I actually worry more about leta, if entus keeps their -_- face it might depress him since he is a very happy outgoing guy afaik, (remember the group selection where he joked causually about "maybe loving him allready?".
Oh and people should remember Oz, Killer and Backho actually looked consistent for the last part of the season...
On September 09 2010 08:05 Tazza wrote: No way man, KT's gonna win again. They won without Yellow and Reach, and now, they have to win with Yellow and Reach. I imagine a 7set grand final between Yellow and Boxer in the finals with an epic hour long game with Yellow winning. THat would be awesome!!!
yellow on Kt will be badass but i think Reach is going to SC2
On October 14 2010 02:41 Iplaythings wrote:Oh and people should remember Oz, Killer and Backho actually looked consistent for the last part of the season...
Backho I think could be a decent A-class. Killer on the other hand just sucks. If you can't even beat Skyhigh ZvT...
On October 14 2010 02:48 Ryo wrote: Later this evening it's proleague media day. I'm expecting many nice pictures, maybe we'll get to see the new Hite Entus uniform/logo.
On October 14 2010 01:35 MrWinkles wrote: Woongjin looks great, I don't know whether theres a better ZTP combo than Zero, Free and Really. If Really can adjust to the new team then they are never out of a single bo5 match all year, even down 2-0.
On October 14 2010 01:35 MrWinkles wrote: Woongjin looks great, I don't know whether theres a better ZTP combo than Zero, Free and Really. If Really can adjust to the new team then they are never out of a single bo5 match all year, even down 2-0.
Action Stats Flash Bisu Fantasy Hyuk?/Kwanro? both could be better. But switching teams generally sends a player into a slump. Hopefully this won't. I think that Woongjin can qualify for playoffs this time around though.
Hyuk and Kwanro are worthless compared to ZerO, free is undoubtedly the best toss atm. Fantasy isn't that much better than Really
On October 14 2010 01:35 MrWinkles wrote: Woongjin looks great, I don't know whether theres a better ZTP combo than Zero, Free and Really. If Really can adjust to the new team then they are never out of a single bo5 match all year, even down 2-0.
Jaedong Hiya and Backhoooooooooo!
JAEDONG HIYA AND ANYTIMEEEEEEEEEEEEEE screw backho =)
On October 14 2010 01:35 MrWinkles wrote: Woongjin looks great, I don't know whether theres a better ZTP combo than Zero, Free and Really. If Really can adjust to the new team then they are never out of a single bo5 match all year, even down 2-0.
Jaedong Hiya and Backhoooooooooo!
Backho and Anytime together again make for the best and greatest Protoss lineup in BW history.
EPT
Leta
HoGiL
Horang2
