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Flash, Jaedong, and Dominance

Blogs > Crunchums
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Crunchums
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States11144 Posts
August 07 2010 08:04 GMT
#1
Note: I wrote this around the Hana Daetoo Securities MSL but then lost interest when I got temp banned for a week and am only finishing it up now, so sorry that this is no longer timely. Also I am bad at writing, so go easy on me :<

Pop quiz - who are the two strongest progamers right now?

[image loading]


(T)Flash and (Z)Jaedong, duh. Go look up any measure of Brood War prowess bet it Teamliquid's Power Ranking, Kespa Ranking, Elo rating, etc. and you'll find Flash and Jaedong at the top. The two of them are the two most dominant players of the modern era (post (P)Bisu > (Z)sAviOr).
+ Show Spoiler +
Disagree? You are wrong.

Modern Era Starleague Titles
Jaedong - 3 OSL, 2 MSL
Flash - 2 OSL, 1 MSL
Bisu - 3 MSL
1 OSL - (Z)GGPlay, (Z)July, (P)Stork, (Z)EffOrt
1 MSL - (T)Mind, (T)fOrGG, (Z)Luxury, (Z)Calm

Think Bisu has been more dominant than Flash or Jaedong?
+ Show Spoiler +
You are still wrong!

But while at times Jaedong has dominated, recently Flash has DOMINATED at a level previously unheard of in professional Starcraft. How is such dominance possible and why did Jaedong never achieve it? A quick answer would be that Flash is simply better than his opponents to a degree that Jaedong never was, but though there’s truth in that statement (Elo certainly bears it out) it’s also not the whole story. Let's take a look at the players themselves:

Flash
Simply put, Flash is really fucking good at Starcraft. He has the best Terran macro, micro, and multitasking in the world as well as a deep understanding of the game that lets him create and execute smart strategies. These strong fundamentals give Flash the extremely high base level of play that is the key to winning so consistently.

But although Flash's frequently hectic schedule prevents him from relying too much on preparation to outplay his opponents, when he is given time to prepare for a match there isn’t a noticeable improvement in his play. Aside from the occasional cheese, he tends to just play like he always plays:

Q: Was there a specific strategy you prepared.
Flash: There was no one, specific strategy. I came with the mindset of playing freestyle. Once I saw my opponent’s build, I planned on adjusting to that with proper timing. There’s no build that I had prepared but never got to use. I just went with my instincts from moment to moment.
- 2009 EVER OSL Finals Interviews


Flash is good enough to get away with "freestyling" like this, but he has a tendency to just use his default build even when the map is ill-suited for it:

Q: How did you prepare for your match against Flash?
(T)Midas: I don't worry that much about TvT and just do what I have to do. I think I started off very well and felt that Flash didn't prepare much for the map. When I saw that he started off with tanks instead of vultures, I felt he didn't understand the map that well. He like a style where he makes a lot of tanks and establishes territory but I think this map didn't really suit that kind of play. Because of all his tournaments, I think he didn't have much time to prepare.
- Hana Daetoo MSL Group B Winner’s Interview

Even when Flash has time to prepare for a series he still sometimes doesn't alter his play to fit the map. Because he's usually better than his opponent his best bet would be to try and make it to the midgame without a significant disadvantage, which makes it all the more frustrating for his fans when his cheeses fail or he gets punished for his greedy builds. Such builds often work for him, but with his skill level he really doesn't need them to win. At a minimum, it would behoove him to be less predictable and to do a better job of fitting his strategy to the map.

Jaedong
A typical description of Jaedong's playstyle centers on his aggressiveness. Jaedong certainly plays an aggressive style made all the more effective by his exceptional micro and mechanics, but what separates his style from that of other aggressive Zergs such as (Z)Kwanro is how he smartly he employs his aggression.

Jaedong doesn’t so much constantly attack as he constantly pokes for holes in which it would be advantageous to attack. The advantages of using this style are threefold:
1. Jaedong is extremely adept at finding weaknesses in his opponent’s defenses. No player gets more easy wins by punishing weak points in his opponents play.
2. When Jaedong pokes in with his units he's very good at quickly judging whether he has an opening and acting accordingly. It is rare to see Jaedong throw away units in a futile attack.
3. By forcing his opponents to focus so much on their defenses he impairs their own attacking capabilities - especially beneficial for a race that plays the role of the defender in both of its non-mirror matchups. Jaedong's management play is more than serviceable, but he rarely even needs it to win.+ Show Spoiler +
Here are two of my favorite examples of how smart Jaedong's aggression is:
http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/games/11721_fantasy_vs_Jaedong
Instead of trying to immediately break his opponent, Jaedong slowly wears (T)fantasy down with harassment and only engages when it favors him to do so.

http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/games/11572_Iris_vs_Jaedong
5 bases no sunkens? No problem if you're opponent can't leave his base.

The fact that Jaedong plays statistically better in best of fives illustrates Jaedong’s second biggest strength: his ability to step up his game through preparation. When Jaedong prepares extensively for a series what he comes up with frequently has a lasting impact on Zerg strategy. But when it comes to dominance, Jaedong's genius preparation is a double edged sword - while it makes him the player with the best shot at defeating Flash in a best of five, it also makes him more vulnerable to being sniped in situations where his opponent has him vastly out-prepared.

Race and Dominance
Zerg, as a race, is just not as well equipped to dominate the professional scene compared to Terran. To be more precise: if it were somehow possible to create a player exactly as skilled with Zerg as Flash is with Terran, that player would win a lower percentage of his games than Flash. Similarly a Terran version of Jaedong would win a higher percentage of his games than Jaedong.

One basic reason for this is the luck based nature of the Zerg mirror. ZvZ is, in the words of Day[9], the hardest matchup in the game to win consistently; i.e. if two players with skill levels constant across all matchups play each other, ZvZ is the matchup in which the gap in wins will be the smallest. The end result is that it is easier to maintain a high winrate in TvT than in ZvZ. + Show Spoiler +
As an aside, ZvZ is my favorite matchup to play and its luck based nature makes Jaedong's at one point 80% winrate (currently 75%) all the more impressive. The biggest reason for his drop in dominance that matchup is probably due to other Zergs learning the matchup from watching him. Also people tend to exaggerate just how luck based ZvZ is; it’s not that extreme.

Secondly, although in general T > Z > P > T on the order of 55/45, in practice these slight imbalances favor Terran because quality Protoss players and Protoss players in general are the scarcest of the three races in the professional scene. + Show Spoiler +
I don't have any dramatic data to back this up (the Statisfaction section of this article provides a bit) but I'm sure that in their heart of hearts most Starcraft fans know it to be true. Even if it's not true across the board Flash and Jaedong’s match statistics bear it out - in Jaedong's last 40 games he has played against Protoss a mere three times, while Flash in the same 40 game window has faced Zerg 8 times. The recent removal of the race requirement in proleague will probably make this effect even more prominent over time.
More tellingly, in individual leagues Jaedong has played 36% of his games against Protoss and 42% against Terran while Flash has played 43% of his games against Zerg and 36% against Protoss.
Thus Terran gets more games in its favorable matchup and fewer in its unfavorable one while the reverse is true for Zerg.

Finally, cheese aside, TvP is a matchup more suited to being dominated than ZvT. In a standard ZvT, Zerg is constantly on the defensive but often relies on extremely thin margins. This dynamic makes Zerg exceedingly fragile as even the slightest slip in a Zerg’s defenses can mean the loss of an expansion or the game. Meanwhile, the Terran has nearly complete control over what kind of game they're going to play - Terran can choose mech, bio, valkonic, bachanic, etc. often transitioning between them in a blink, while Zerg must respond appropriately or lose. When it comes to bio ZvT, a single mistake in your defense is often fatal. I don't think I can put it better than Ver did (emphasis mine):
The general dynamic revolves around the Terran pressuring and attacking, while the Zerg strives to block these thrusts. Only in two points of the game, during the intial mutalisk phase and the lategame ultra/ling stage, does the Zerg have any reasonable kind of initiative. Even then, the Terran can still win control of the game with just one effective attack. That's simply the nature of bio TvZ.


On the other hand, the dynamics of TvP are completely reversed; TvP is simply a more stable matchup than ZvT. Terran can comfortably turtle until he decides to push out, and safety is mostly a matter of detection and tanks, a unit you want to build anyway, and your army composition is largely the same every game. When Flash plays his trademark turtle-style TvP he controls of the flow of the game to a degree Zerg players can only dream of in ZvT. This is not to say that the matchup is easy; knowing when to push in TvP is quite difficult. What it does mean is that if you are extremely skilled at TvP like Flash is then that skill translates into a win more frequently than if you were equally skilled in ZvT.

Conclusion
Together, all of these factors enable Flash to translate his skill into dominance more easily than Jaedong. Additionally, Flash’s higher base skill makes him better suited to dominating proleague and multiple starleagues simultaneously. At the end of the day it's silly to contextualize the achievements of these titans of Brood War - the results speak for themselves. I don't know if we'll ever know for sure which of the two of them is the better player but one thing is for sure; when it comes to the question of who is the current best player in the world, Flash and Jaedong the only two players in the conversation.

*****
brood war for life, brood war forever
swanized
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
Canada2480 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-08-07 08:25:48
August 07 2010 08:25 GMT
#2
Interesting analysis, I never thought about why Flash's dominance was bigger then Jaedong's this way
Writer
Avidkeystamper
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
United States8556 Posts
August 07 2010 08:30 GMT
#3
Well I also think that Flash did play better than JD ever did for a stretch of many months, but I do agree that zerg is easier to mess up on because of the margin for error.
Also on the ZvZ, it's also about this. To beat JD, you only have to play better than him for maybe not even 10 seconds to win. To beat Flash in TvT, it almost always has to be a drawn out macro war, which is harder to outplay a good player in.
Jaedong
Navi
Profile Joined November 2009
5286 Posts
August 07 2010 08:39 GMT
#4
On August 07 2010 17:25 swanized wrote:
Interesting analysis, I never thought about why Flash's dominance was bigger then Jaedong's this way


i.e. terran imba

I always did think that zerg was a much more "fragile" race than the others, seeing as they have so many small timings in which they are vulnerable, as compared to the protoss and terran's long periods of turtling / map control, in which they are able to completely dedicate to defense (siege, mines, walls, or cannons). Zerg have the initial timing of protecting their third without simcity, then a very short period of time in which they have map control ( hydra) before toss regains it: if zerg doesn't get rid of toss' air superiority in this time, then they can't snipe HT's and the like and become very vulnerable to a hanbang push.

likewise, vT, they have such narrow timing windows that players such as flash can sieze (such as the time during which a zerg's third is going up and the zerg doesn't have lurker tech done) with ease. And until the zerg gets defilers, they have no legitimate way of engaging the terran army full on without having the terran not scouting an all-in or massive flank, which players like flash usually deduce from scouting.

nonetheless, Flash always attributed his gaming prowess to his game sense more than anything. There are macro beasts, such as iloveoov, micro geniuses such as boxer, and people who had both, such as nada, but Flash is a culmination of the three, and perhaps most reminiscent of iloveoov, in that he always seems to know when to take an expansion (or a hidden one) and defend it properly, and rolls out with a huge army to take out his opponent.

its good that you published this before the finals, if flash get's rolled, then this would be kinda silly to post afterwords
Hey! Listen!
Crunchums
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States11144 Posts
August 07 2010 08:44 GMT
#5
On August 07 2010 17:39 Navi wrote:
i.e. terran imba

Well, there's that too : 3
its good that you published this before the finals, if flash get's rolled, then this would be kinda silly to post afterwords

I'm sad I didn't get to post this before the Korean Air OSL finals; I would have looked so smart when Flash choked against Effort.
brood war for life, brood war forever
neobowman
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Canada3324 Posts
August 07 2010 08:50 GMT
#6
Very nice. Learned a lot from this.
+ Show Spoiler [In non-serious land:] +
TERRAN IMBA! FIX NOW!
Black Gun
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Germany4482 Posts
August 07 2010 09:03 GMT
#7
very interesting, i agree with most of it. especially the "jd can enhance his lvl of play more than flash, given enough preparation" thing. this was evident in their nate msl series. jd was playing fantastic sc that day and was clearly ahead of flash, no matter the power outage and all its effects. jd dominated set 1, was in a good position in game 2 until a sudden stroke of genius by flash defeated him. he was turning game 3 in his favor after a long battle, and was in a commanding lead when the outage happened. (id say about 90:10 in jds favor, at least....)

at the same time, jd´s need for preparation and his tendency to fuck up the first game in a boX has caused him to drop out of leagues in the ro16//ro8 many many times. basically he is a monster that has to be stopped before he reaches the semifinals stage.
"What am I supposed to do against this?" - "Lose!" :-]
prosatan
Profile Joined September 2009
Romania9115 Posts
August 07 2010 09:10 GMT
#8
good write mate!
I love both of them!
Lee JaeDong Fighting! The only church that illuminates is the one that burns.
Crunchums
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States11144 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-08-07 09:30:14
August 07 2010 09:26 GMT
#9
On August 07 2010 18:03 Black Gun wrote:
at the same time, jd´s need for preparation and his tendency to fuck up the first game in a boX has caused him to drop out of leagues in the ro16//ro8 many many times. basically he is a monster that has to be stopped before he reaches the semifinals stage.

Jaedong has made exactly one of the starleague finals over the last 4 MSLs and OSLs (Hana Daetoo MSL, NATE MSL, 2009 Bacchus OSL, Batoo OSL). He didn't make either of ClubDay MSL or Incruit OSL finals, but he made exactly one of the starleague finals over the last 3 MSLs and OSLs before that (Arena MSL, GOMTV MSL S4, Ever 2007 MSL).

If you're saying that Jaedong should have made MORE starleague finals but didn't because he only had enough time to carry his team in proleague and stay alive in only one league but not two (not to mention GOM events) then... I agree; that's basically my point
brood war for life, brood war forever
Crunchums
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States11144 Posts
August 07 2010 18:30 GMT
#10
I feel silly; how did I forgot to mention that Flash gets the long end of the T>Z stick whenever they go head to head? That is like the most obvious thing ever : S
brood war for life, brood war forever
tissue
Profile Joined April 2009
Malaysia441 Posts
August 09 2010 15:47 GMT
#11
Jaedong should just switch to T or random. I remember Flash saying JD's offraces were pretty strong, apparently they used to and probably still do play online quite a bit.
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