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On September 07 2012 05:29 Sub40APM wrote:
Ah I see what you are saying and thats fair enough but I guess my point was generally that the Cun Yun - Li Peng leadership axis was different -- and in many ways opposed -- to Deng's reformist tendencies. Obviously if Deng ultimately wanted to prevent the massacre he could have but I think we have to be careful about ascribing to him too much power. After all, if his will could triumph over standing committee members then why 3 year freeze on economic liberalization, and why did he have to do the southern tour? I think its not unreasonable to say that people like Li Peng were concerned about their own positions and by striking down the students ensured their continued domination of the nation.
But if you are saying that everyone in the Chinese power structure was scared of the second cultural revolution because the first, fundamentally, undermined the bureaucratic state in favor of Maoist charisma based leadership (which I think was Maos goal anyway, to keep the cadres scared) then sure I agree, the people who climbed the ladder of success through numerous complex steps wouldnt want the system shaken up by random reformers.
In regard to your first paragraph, the ability to cease power during a crisis and standstill in government is different from the ability to control government in a day to day basis when everything is calmed down. Deng was able to suddenly grab power because of his force of personality and ballsack. When the situation isn't in such a weird crisis mode, people can slowly manuever themselves around Deng, same as they did with Mao until Mao launched the Cultural Revolution.
As for your second paragraph, yes that is what I'm saying. The Chinese government for all intents and purposes has people in power who know first hand what could happen to them if they fall out of power. They still have a lot of them around. Xi Jinping for example. Though I don't want to make the Chinese personalities in charge to be too machiavellen since I do believe they also want what's best for China (along with staying in power) which in their minds is NOT another cultural revolution as they know just how shitty it is.
Side note, the only thing I'm somewhat worried about though is when a new generation of leaders comes to power, one that never truly suffered or knew true fear like those that survived the cultural revolution did. Their confidence must be soaring which makes me wonder what they'll do in the future.
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wanna be koreans?
more specifically south koreans.
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An elucidating read, Shady Sands! I never expected to stumble upon a topic that is so far removed from gaming here on TL.
I feel that some people in the comments don't quite understand what this post is all about. There is no such thing as universal truth in writing. There is only interpretation -- partial-truths that help us understand the elephant. Don't rag on the OP for not including other relevant information. If it upsets you, write your own essay. Also, what does it matter if fact and opinion are mixed together? They always are. The point is that this essay makes some of us curious about the Chinese economy. If we're really interested (and I know I am after reading this), then it's up to us to do more research on the topic.
Diatribe aside, I really found the last part of the essay intriguing. If I understand Shady Sands correctly, the potential turn to democracy in China -- indeed the rest of the world -- isn't so rosy as we might imagine. Democracy in theory is most certainly the best form of government on moral and practical grounds. However, what does having democracy matter if the underlying power of society is still rooted in only a select few? How much can you really change by voting for someone who is either already bought or doesn't have any real power to effect positive change? What I think Shady Sands was saying -- what I believe anyway -- is that the "democratic" nations of the world all have their elite circles that reap all the benefits of making decisions and defer all the blame when their decisions harm the rest of us. So yes, China will be welcomed with open arms when it becomes democratic because it will look exactly like the rest of world -- for better of worse.
"Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite."
- John Kenneth Galbraith
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This is the more eloquent and accurate description of exactly what I have noticed. I never thought they would off load and go private though, always assumed they would default on all international investments and revert any capitalist ideals. This makes a bit more sense given history though.
Great post.
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On September 07 2012 07:12 wklbishop wrote:Show nested quote +On September 07 2012 05:29 Sub40APM wrote:
Ah I see what you are saying and thats fair enough but I guess my point was generally that the Cun Yun - Li Peng leadership axis was different -- and in many ways opposed -- to Deng's reformist tendencies. Obviously if Deng ultimately wanted to prevent the massacre he could have but I think we have to be careful about ascribing to him too much power. After all, if his will could triumph over standing committee members then why 3 year freeze on economic liberalization, and why did he have to do the southern tour? I think its not unreasonable to say that people like Li Peng were concerned about their own positions and by striking down the students ensured their continued domination of the nation.
But if you are saying that everyone in the Chinese power structure was scared of the second cultural revolution because the first, fundamentally, undermined the bureaucratic state in favor of Maoist charisma based leadership (which I think was Maos goal anyway, to keep the cadres scared) then sure I agree, the people who climbed the ladder of success through numerous complex steps wouldnt want the system shaken up by random reformers. In regard to your first paragraph, the ability to cease power during a crisis and standstill in government is different from the ability to control government in a day to day basis when everything is calmed down. Deng was able to suddenly grab power because of his force of personality and ballsack. When the situation isn't in such a weird crisis mode, people can slowly manuever themselves around Deng, same as they did with Mao until Mao launched the Cultural Revolution.
Ya I understand that. I am just saying that even with this ability, it took him quite a while to reach out and get his program back on track after 89.
As for your second paragraph, yes that is what I'm saying. The Chinese government for all intents and purposes has people in power who know first hand what could happen to them if they fall out of power. They still have a lot of them around. Xi Jinping for example. Though I don't want to make the Chinese personalities in charge to be too machiavellen since I do believe they also want what's best for China (along with staying in power) which in their minds is NOT another cultural revolution as they know just how shitty it is.
Side note, the only thing I'm somewhat worried about though is when a new generation of leaders comes to power, one that never truly suffered or knew true fear like those that survived the cultural revolution did. Their confidence must be soaring which makes me wonder what they'll do in the future.
Ya I agree, the rise of the red royalty will have an interesting transformation on Chinese politics. Which is why I am skeptical about the privatization of the bigger pieces of the pie. If they do it, the people, or the kids, of those who are in charge now win while the people waiting in the wings for their chance at leadership in 2020 will be shit out of luck. Somehow I dont think they will be okay with that.
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Wow, this is some good shit.
Seriously entertaining read.
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Awesome content, great fun to read!
To be fair, some western analysis of the Chinese economy almost exactly mirrors the conclusions laid out in this article. However, with the background music and your strong literary voice, this is definitely the most entertaining read I've had on economics in a long, long time. Thanks for posting.
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On September 07 2012 11:10 Sub40APM wrote:Show nested quote +On September 07 2012 07:12 wklbishop wrote:On September 07 2012 05:29 Sub40APM wrote:
Ah I see what you are saying and thats fair enough but I guess my point was generally that the Cun Yun - Li Peng leadership axis was different -- and in many ways opposed -- to Deng's reformist tendencies. Obviously if Deng ultimately wanted to prevent the massacre he could have but I think we have to be careful about ascribing to him too much power. After all, if his will could triumph over standing committee members then why 3 year freeze on economic liberalization, and why did he have to do the southern tour? I think its not unreasonable to say that people like Li Peng were concerned about their own positions and by striking down the students ensured their continued domination of the nation.
But if you are saying that everyone in the Chinese power structure was scared of the second cultural revolution because the first, fundamentally, undermined the bureaucratic state in favor of Maoist charisma based leadership (which I think was Maos goal anyway, to keep the cadres scared) then sure I agree, the people who climbed the ladder of success through numerous complex steps wouldnt want the system shaken up by random reformers. In regard to your first paragraph, the ability to cease power during a crisis and standstill in government is different from the ability to control government in a day to day basis when everything is calmed down. Deng was able to suddenly grab power because of his force of personality and ballsack. When the situation isn't in such a weird crisis mode, people can slowly manuever themselves around Deng, same as they did with Mao until Mao launched the Cultural Revolution. Ya I understand that. I am just saying that even with this ability, it took him quite a while to reach out and get his program back on track after 89. Show nested quote +
As for your second paragraph, yes that is what I'm saying. The Chinese government for all intents and purposes has people in power who know first hand what could happen to them if they fall out of power. They still have a lot of them around. Xi Jinping for example. Though I don't want to make the Chinese personalities in charge to be too machiavellen since I do believe they also want what's best for China (along with staying in power) which in their minds is NOT another cultural revolution as they know just how shitty it is.
Side note, the only thing I'm somewhat worried about though is when a new generation of leaders comes to power, one that never truly suffered or knew true fear like those that survived the cultural revolution did. Their confidence must be soaring which makes me wonder what they'll do in the future.
Ya I agree, the rise of the red royalty will have an interesting transformation on Chinese politics. Which is why I am skeptical about the privatization of the bigger pieces of the pie. If they do it, the people, or the kids, of those who are in charge now win while the people waiting in the wings for their chance at leadership in 2020 will be shit out of luck. Somehow I dont think they will be okay with that.
Those people in the wings waiting for 2022 can't do much about it, since so many of them are going to be scrambling to save their provinces from the debt overhang. While the past promotion criterias have all revolved around success, the next decade is going to revolve around survival
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Yeah I had no idea economics could be this interesting, your an amazing writer.
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awesome post! thanks a lot
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Wow...
Need to read it again ><
Amazing read though...
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FYI, China is going to use the reformers to back the privatization/democratization plans pretty heavily. But so far, those efforts have mainly been tossed around between the CYL faction. President-elect Xi is not a member of that grouping, but the fact that he is reaching out to them indicates that a broad-based consensus for this plan has been achieved.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/07/us-china-politics-xi-idUSBRE8860BI20120907
(Reuters) - China's president-in-waiting, Xi Jinping, has said the ruling Communist Party must embrace reform with fresh vigor to stave off social and economic malaise, sources said, citing accounts of comments he made at a meeting with a party reformer.
Xi met the prominent reformer, Hu Deping, in the past six weeks, the sources said, in a gesture intended to show he was listening to voices calling for not only faster economic liberalization but also a relaxation of political controls.
China's new leadership team, to take the reins of power from March next year, faces a slowing economy and demands from inside and outside the party to tackle problems that reformists see as threats to both growth and social stability - such as a yawning wealth gap, limited political freedom and corruption.
PS Hu Deping is the son of Hu Yaobang, the dude in the white coat and tie who shepherded the rise of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao (the other 2 dudes to his right in that picture)
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On September 08 2012 11:42 Shady Sands wrote:FYI, China is going to use the reformers to back the privatization/democratization plans pretty heavily. But so far, those efforts have mainly been tossed around between the CYL faction. President-elect Xi is not a member of that grouping, but the fact that he is reaching out to them indicates that a broad-based consensus for this plan has been achieved. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/07/us-china-politics-xi-idUSBRE8860BI20120907Show nested quote +(Reuters) - China's president-in-waiting, Xi Jinping, has said the ruling Communist Party must embrace reform with fresh vigor to stave off social and economic malaise, sources said, citing accounts of comments he made at a meeting with a party reformer.
Xi met the prominent reformer, Hu Deping, in the past six weeks, the sources said, in a gesture intended to show he was listening to voices calling for not only faster economic liberalization but also a relaxation of political controls.
China's new leadership team, to take the reins of power from March next year, faces a slowing economy and demands from inside and outside the party to tackle problems that reformists see as threats to both growth and social stability - such as a yawning wealth gap, limited political freedom and corruption. PS Hu Deping is the son of Hu Yaobang, the dude in the white coat and tie who shepherded the rise of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao (the other 2 dudes to his right in that picture)
I am still skeptical. As I said a couple posts ago, it was under the Hu-Wan leadership that consumption as % of GDP dropped to 34%. That literally is a historic record -- for anywhere in the world -- and now we have the announcement of new stimulus that will once again focus on infrastructure, property and other capital misallocating crap that the consumer will have to pay for, thus driving down consumption some more. In my opinion the vested interests who like things the way they are now are too powerful for any kind of non-crisis led reforms. The last round of genuine reforms was in the early 90s under Zhu Rongji and to get them off the ground required a banking crisis that ate 1/3rd of the then GDP. So best case, crisis first, reform later. worst case. crisis first, stagnation later.
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Good but heh i'll have to re-read again
You made the whole thing much more interesting than i could have imagined
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I assume that the facts youve told us... are true.. just an assumption..
have you considered the impact of those facts youve told us?
If put china in a green-red real-estate-map from 2000-2010... Green = cheap, red = expensive...
You will probably notice a few things...
Besides HK, Guangdong, Shanghai en Beijing... You will see that the province ZheJiang is RED, even the bloody countrysides... When I talk to people in china, they put massively the blame on Wenzhou-people for letting the real estate prices grow that quick. And of course chinese people are masters in copying... so other people copied the crap and voila you get everywhere ghost cities.
I dont know how much impact this has on the economy growth but its a serious factor.
Another factor is, since first and the generation chinese people abroad are keep sending money in china (in my home-village, the beer was even more expensive then in amsterdam...) for like euh? 40 years? What happens if you keep sending money to a certain area? Its like giving every month 1000 euro/dollar to a child in afghanistan...
And one of the biggest thing Ive noticed... the past 25 years, china is being ruled like a big bad ass company.
If you have all noticed, the RMB-USD exchange rate was fixed for many years. Basicly said, the chinese shitty products were freaking cheap. The counter part of this is the inflation (negative effect on the economy), but who does a sh!t cares about it if the growth is bigger then the inflation? its just balance...
As long if your balance is positive, it doesnt matter. Like just spend 500 minerals of lings to the enemy to keep them busy with your income is 600 minerals....
Policies? Laws? Worker-care? Insurance? well... without those you can abuse the employees to the max, its nearly slavery. You can produce at a very low cost. Sell them in dollars... If you do that like euh... +25 years? you have a large surpluss of dollars stockpiled. And of course USA just spends them.. if they need some cash? Well do the treasury loan... China is happy to provide the dollars. This is why USA has a huge debt towards china...
USA is spending borrowed money, China is just saving up the money and supply the loans...
This isnt rocket science but a simple chart flow would do the trick.
Democracy in china? Are you seriously kidding me? We in the netherlands, have a political party called, Partij voor de Animal, euh... just say its like the Al Qaeda for the animals (its a bit exagerating but still...). They still have a seat in the political arena... We had almost a Party for Pedophilia... In this little country with +16 milion people...
If i read the news, I cant believe that USA has a large movement called the Tea party. I have limited information about them but if Ms Palin says things like "Obviously, we've gotta stand with our North Korean allies"... Seriously I thought we arent that freaking stupid? (I say the word stupid because I dont wanna insult the yankees  )
Luckily the majority of the western population arent that stupid...
Dont think that the chinese population is that "smart". Just like in Egypt its better to have a "dictator" then a religious or a fascism or something we all dont like. And the funny thing "generally speaking" all what chinese people care about are... their blood line and the money... They dont give a crap who rules the country as long they can get rich and get a football team of sons. Oh they are all heavily manipulated, not only by their government, also by the people amongs them including the family. I dont wanna call it but this is a succesfull version of fascism based on capitcalism.
Ive did a small research for a friend of mine. I took a foreigner (aka white dude), a +2 generation abroad chinese (2gen), first generation abroad chinese (1gen), a chinese from china (yellow dude) and a student from china which is studying abroad(goldseeker).
Ive put them all to do a small task which requires intelligence, creativiness and more crap...
The yellow dude, is a master of copying and only does it according to the instructions.
The goldseeker, is just the same as the yellow dude but a little bit faster.
The white dude, doesnt care a sh!t about it and tries to do the task in the most efficient way.
2gen, is just the same as the foreigner but has small influence like the yellow dude. Aka Banana for the people from china.
1gen, hopeless and stuck in their time when they left china. The educated ones can keep with the present but the non-educated ones still thinks they are still in china.
Basicly said... Chinese people arent capable enough to think indepently, think creative or say f*ck this sh!t Im not gonna do this according this instruction, I wanna do it on my own way. People in china are just like Sheeps...
China isnt like any other Elephant.. Its a wannabe Elephant. I hope the Communist Party keeps the power and supress the people. Even I dont want to see it happen but there are just "TOO MANY YELLOW DUDES" out there... China should stop being a bad ass company but a charity company for a few years... otherwise the world has a problem...
PS. I havent talked about the serious sh!t like corruption, discrimination and such...
5th Generation in the Netherlands, and yes my grandpa has a triple size A0 poster of Mao in his living room... FML
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This was very interesting, thank you. I sort of wrote you off since you had an ungodly number of posts and were still scv but, even taken with a grain of salt, this was a very insightful. It makes American history look very tame
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I chuckled at the Zhang Ziyi part. It was a really nice write up! Thank you!
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This was written very well, much better then an essay i'd write. I am now very interested to see if China will move to become more democratic, something i had never thought or known anything about previously to your post!
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OP I know very little about the subject, nor could I fully understand it after only 1 reading, however you're making Deng Xiao Ping sound like a mastermind. :O
Now I remember who you are :D Great write up
On September 09 2012 11:06 renzy wrote:
I chuckled at the Zhang Ziyi part. It was a really nice write up! Thank you!
That part made me kinda depressed later on man......
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On September 09 2012 17:53 JieXian wrote:OP I know very little about the subject, nor could I fully understand it after only 1 reading, however you're making Deng Xiao Ping sound like a mastermind. :O Now I remember who you are :D Great write up Show nested quote +On September 09 2012 11:06 renzy wrote:
I chuckled at the Zhang Ziyi part. It was a really nice write up! Thank you! That part made me kinda depressed later on man......
What's so depressing about Zhang Ziyi? She's super hot lol
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EPT
