i cant tell how much of it is true, but it was an awesome read
The Chinese Economy - Page 4
Blogs > Shady Sands |
thirtyapm
521 Posts
i cant tell how much of it is true, but it was an awesome read | ||
haduken
Australia8267 Posts
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aka_star
United Kingdom1546 Posts
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Emperor_Earth
United States824 Posts
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DKR
United Kingdom622 Posts
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JieXian
Malaysia4677 Posts
On September 06 2012 10:09 haduken wrote: OP, are you able to post a version of your thread without music/pic? At work at the moment, bored shitless but our PCs are monitored for data usage. ... that sucks like hell man. What kind of company are you working in? Or is it related to your ISPs? On September 06 2012 02:37 stew_ wrote: amazing read. could you do one for japan? i've never fully understood why their economy got completely owned in the late 80's. you know he's Chinese and not Japanese and they are both different things despite both being in Asia right?? ... right??? | ||
jpak
United States5045 Posts
On September 06 2012 21:28 JieXian wrote: ... that sucks like hell man. What kind of company are you working in? Or is it related to your ISPs? you know he's Chinese and not Japanese and they are both different things despite both being in Asia right?? ... right??? Maybe he knows something since he made at least one comparison to it. I do not know much about China (except in relation to North Korea), but this was a good read. Thanks for writing. | ||
Golden Ghost
Netherlands1041 Posts
There the inner circle there also bought the crown jewels for very low prizes and through them kept the population in check while becoming billionairs. This also assured that the same people could stay in power because the new billionairs would back them when the old garde ran for office and at the same time allowed the old garde to keep the billionairs inline because the old garde knows exactly by which semi-illegal way the billionairs obtained the companies. Look for example at Chodorkovsky. The moment he backed a progressive candidate and really tried to help forward the democracy, he was prosecuted for illegally obtaining his oilcompany (Lukoil I believe it was) and was sentenced to a long stay in prison in Siberia. | ||
Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On September 06 2012 21:33 jpak wrote: Maybe he knows something since he made at least one comparison to it. I do not know much about China (except in relation to North Korea), but this was a good read. Thanks for writing. Actually, I know a bit about Japan, but not enough to write something worth reading. Read about 1980s Japanese economic history, in particular how the Japanese economy coped with the shock of the 1985 plaza accords. Then keep reading about how Japanese institutions, collectively seeking to preserve their own interests, caused Japan to overreact to one economic speedbump after another all the way through the 2011 tsunami, and how that has cost the country trillions in lost GDP. It's a sobering tale, especially for China, which seems destined to walk that road itself | ||
MisterFred
United States2033 Posts
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Shady Sands
United States4021 Posts
On September 06 2012 05:17 Sub40APM wrote: This skips a lot of really important stuff on modern Chinese economy. This would be akin to explaining America to someone who knows nothing about America by talking about George W Bush and then Obama. Specifically: Yu've managed to skip everything about 1980s style reforms in China, the Zhejiang model and the rise of the genuine capitalist class except for that, now fabled, farmers-blood contract. Why no mention of China's first millionaire and his venture, Idiot's Seeds? Youve ignored Zhu Ronji reforms in response to the near collapse of the state banking sector and did not mention the big four State owned 'Asset Management Companies' and their balance sheets and interactions with the Big 4 state owned banks. You've barely touched on local property prices and their importance to local governments' budgets and literally have one line mentioned the off balance sheet vehicles local governments have set up to hide the debts [by the way, who are they hiding that debt from?] You've not mentioned the rise of the shadow banking sector in China, nor the rise of the "Investment Managers" that promise 40% returns annually and the concern that this elicits from the PBOC You havent even touched the currency peg to the dollar and the consequent straight jacket this puts on Chinese monetary policy. You've also somehow managed to skip the whole privatization scheme for the Big Four banks. You seem to have understood only half of the reason why Bo Xilai's 'Congqing model' was so popular with so many in the Party and among the general populace. (it was not just about planting trees and building up Chonqing's local SOEs!) You've confused the already completed quasi-IPOs of stuff like China Telecom and China mobile [in terms of JP Morgan and Goldman inputs] and the future plans for any attempts at privatization. You've seemed to have completely ignored the inability of either Wen or Hu to get China moving away from its current economic model, consumption as a % of the economy is at an all time low of 38%. This is a historic record. You have completely ignored the importance of Chinese overseas diaspora in terms of factor relocation, especially Hong Kong's role in it. You also seemed to have attributed China's strategic decisions, invading Vietnam because Vietnam just invaded China's puppet state Cambodia, with some sort grand bargain with the Americans. The Americans and the Chinese have already become quasi-allies in the 70s due to the antipathy to the Soviet Union. The big breakthrough here occurred under Nixon and Mao and once the Vietnam war was finally wound down nothing stood in the way of the blooming friendship (A couple weeks after the PLA massacred its own people in Tienanmen, George Bush the first sent his NSA and his Secretary of State to toast the Chinese, in Beijing, and to assure them that while publicly he condemned the bloodshed privately the US-PRC alliance against the Soviet Union was still on) By the way, the projection that 'privatization' and 'quasi-democracy' are coming in 6 more years, that projection has been made in 1996, in 2000, in 2006, and now in 2012. And the total number of state owned firms has fallen. Its just that the ones that are left standing are all massive, and dominate their industries. And somehow mysteriously that final push to privatization never quite happens. But other than that, its a nice blog post. If people are genuinely interested in China's economy ya'll should check out these three books: http://www.amazon.com/Capitalism-Chinese-Characteristics-Entrepreneurship-State/dp/0521898102/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1346876203&sr=8-1&keywords=capitalism with chinese characteristics http://www.amazon.com/Red-Capitalism-Financial-Foundation-Extraordinary/dp/0470825863/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1346876203&sr=8-2&keywords=capitalism with chinese characteristics http://www.amazon.com/Factions-Finance-China-Conflict-Inflation/dp/B005E014EM/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1346876239&sr=8-2&keywords=factions and finance china Very good comment. In regard to the last book you linked (Factions & Finance), I'd like to point out that a lot of my own interest in China was sparked when I first met Victor Shih my freshman year of college. He (and Kenneth Dam) were tremendous influences on my decision to go into econ/int'l politics for study and a career. | ||
wklbishop
United States1286 Posts
There's one thing I want to mention which is regarding 1989 in Tiananmen: I'm a bit dissappointed that you didn't mention how when the leadership saw student protestors, they did not see democracy lovers, rather they saw the Red Guard version 2 and most of the leadership during that time were the ones being beaten the crap out of by the original red guard which was also made up of students. That I feel like is something that people need to understand to truly get China's economic and political thought. You did a good job by mentioning Bo Xilai which brought a similar understanding. Other than that, impressive. I have a lot of things to say about Sub40APM's post as well, both good and bad, but I really need to work on a paper. LOLs. | ||
StickyFlower
Sweden68 Posts
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SKaysc
United States305 Posts
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Sub40APM
6336 Posts
On September 06 2012 23:29 Shady Sands wrote: Thats pretty cool. Yea, I was pretty sad when Shih decided to cash in on his Sinology cred and joined Carlyle. What a waste. Very good comment. In regard to the last book you linked (Factions & Finance), I'd like to point out that a lot of my own interest in China was sparked when I first met Victor Shih my freshman year of college. He (and Kenneth Dam) were tremendous influences on my decision to go into econ/int'l politics for study and a career. | ||
Trowa127
United Kingdom1230 Posts
"Observe developmnents soberly, deal with changes patiently and confidently; maintain our position, meet challenges calmly, hide our capabilities and bide our time, remain free of ambition and never claim leadership." Edit - of course you can't fit the entire history of China's economy into one post. That requires wider reading. But its a good introduction. | ||
Sub40APM
6336 Posts
On September 07 2012 02:25 wklbishop wrote: I'm a bit dissappointed that you didn't mention how when the leadership saw student protestors, they did not see democracy lovers, rather they saw the Red Guard version 2 and most of the leadership during that time were the ones being beaten the crap out of by the original red guard which was also made up of students. That I feel like is something that people need to understand to truly get China's economic and political thought. . eh? Li Peng was the main driver for a bloody crackdown and no one touched him during the Cultural Revolution. The other guy who was strongly in favor of martial law was Yao Yilin and he also had a relatively harmless Cultural Revolution. Li Peng's patron, Chen Yun, was 'purged' but not violently, he was demoted from official posts and made a factory manager but by the time the Gang of Four were removed he was in a prominent enough position to petition to have Deng's disgrace and exile overturned. Zhao Ziyang, on the other hand, was purged during the cultural revolution yet he was also the guy out there negotiating with the students. Qiao Shi went to jail during the Cultural Revolution and probably suffered the most physical abuse yet instead of voting for the killing of the students he abstained, which was a big deal. Hu Qili also opposed martial law and was expelled from the standing committee for it. So I guess I disagree with the way you formulated that. I dont think most members of the standing committee thought the kids out in 89 were like the Red Guards at all. And the ones who suffered the most at the hands of the Red Guards were also the ones who were the most reluctant to actually use force. Considering the fact that Cun Yun wanted to slow down the Deng economic reforms, it seems like a better argument was that the conservative members of the standing committee used the student movement to derail the Deng project. | ||
Nikon
Bulgaria5710 Posts
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wklbishop
United States1286 Posts
On September 07 2012 04:08 Sub40APM wrote: eh? Li Peng was the main driver for a bloody crackdown and no one touched him during the Cultural Revolution. The other guy who was strongly in favor of martial law was Yao Yilin and he also had a relatively harmless Cultural Revolution. Li Peng's patron, Chen Yun, was 'purged' but not violently, he was demoted from official posts and made a factory manager but by the time the Gang of Four were removed he was in a prominent enough position to petition to have Deng's disgrace and exile overturned. Zhao Ziyang, on the other hand, was purged during the cultural revolution yet he was also the guy out there negotiating with the students. Qiao Shi went to jail during the Cultural Revolution and probably suffered the most physical abuse yet instead of voting for the killing of the students he abstained, which was a big deal. Hu Qili also opposed martial law and was expelled from the standing committee for it. So I guess I disagree with the way you formulated that. I dont think most members of the standing committee thought the kids out in 89 were like the Red Guards at all. And the ones who suffered the most at the hands of the Red Guards were also the ones who were the most reluctant to actually use force. Considering the fact that Cun Yun wanted to slow down the Deng economic reforms, it seems like a better argument was that the conservative members of the standing committee used the student movement to derail the Deng project. You're very intelligent obviously and know your stuff, but I think you're missing something really important here and about Chinese culture which is positions don't necessarily matter at the time but rather personal loyalty and reputation which meant realistically Deng Xiaoping (and his camp, people in power not necessarily in the Politburo) was behind the crackdown and had the final say. Hell, Deng after Mao's death had no power other than being essentially the spiritual successor to Zhou Enlai and all his connections. Also, you're saying only those who experienced misery will fear the red guard, that's not true necessarily because even if they didn't get tortured, they were still scared shitless because they knew how it could potentially turn out for them. Zhao Ziyang was essentially playing with fire to them and he knew it. And at the end of the day, the similarity was basically quite a few of them saying: we're not letting students and kids run this country ever again. Though the alternative argument is something I would agree with. It's just that I think it goes hand in hand with what I described. That said, I'm willing to acknowledge I'm wrong, but I just wished it was noted that a lot of political thought was based on the horrors of the cultural revolution and I thought Tiananmen was the best example to illustrate so. Why a lot of Chinese leaders are so... focused on just getting wealthier over any great ideals since the cultural revolution was based on weird ideals. | ||
Sub40APM
6336 Posts
But if you are saying that everyone in the Chinese power structure was scared of the second cultural revolution because the first, fundamentally, undermined the bureaucratic state in favor of Maoist charisma based leadership (which I think was Maos goal anyway, to keep the cadres scared) then sure I agree, the people who climbed the ladder of success through numerous complex steps wouldnt want the system shaken up by random reformers. | ||
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