EPTThe Chinese Economy - Page 3
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Jaaaaasper
United States10225 Posts
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zalz
Netherlands3704 Posts
Not as things should be, but that doesn't keep it from being interesting to read. | ||
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dudecrush
Canada418 Posts
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farvacola
United States18827 Posts
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Dazu
Norway32 Posts
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leperphilliac
United States399 Posts
Also you have amazing taste in music. | ||
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Sub40APM
6336 Posts
Specifically: Yu've managed to skip everything about 1980s style reforms in China, the Zhejiang model and the rise of the genuine capitalist class except for that, now fabled, farmers-blood contract. Why no mention of China's first millionaire and his venture, Idiot's Seeds? Youve ignored Zhu Ronji reforms in response to the near collapse of the state banking sector and did not mention the big four State owned 'Asset Management Companies' and their balance sheets and interactions with the Big 4 state owned banks. You've barely touched on local property prices and their importance to local governments' budgets and literally have one line mentioned the off balance sheet vehicles local governments have set up to hide the debts [by the way, who are they hiding that debt from?] You've not mentioned the rise of the shadow banking sector in China, nor the rise of the "Investment Managers" that promise 40% returns annually and the concern that this elicits from the PBOC You havent even touched the currency peg to the dollar and the consequent straight jacket this puts on Chinese monetary policy. You've also somehow managed to skip the whole privatization scheme for the Big Four banks. You seem to have understood only half of the reason why Bo Xilai's 'Congqing model' was so popular with so many in the Party and among the general populace. (it was not just about planting trees and building up Chonqing's local SOEs!) You've confused the already completed quasi-IPOs of stuff like China Telecom and China mobile [in terms of JP Morgan and Goldman inputs] and the future plans for any attempts at privatization. You've seemed to have completely ignored the inability of either Wen or Hu to get China moving away from its current economic model, consumption as a % of the economy is at an all time low of 38%. This is a historic record. You have completely ignored the importance of Chinese overseas diaspora in terms of factor relocation, especially Hong Kong's role in it. You also seemed to have attributed China's strategic decisions, invading Vietnam because Vietnam just invaded China's puppet state Cambodia, with some sort grand bargain with the Americans. The Americans and the Chinese have already become quasi-allies in the 70s due to the antipathy to the Soviet Union. The big breakthrough here occurred under Nixon and Mao and once the Vietnam war was finally wound down nothing stood in the way of the blooming friendship (A couple weeks after the PLA massacred its own people in Tienanmen, George Bush the first sent his NSA and his Secretary of State to toast the Chinese, in Beijing, and to assure them that while publicly he condemned the bloodshed privately the US-PRC alliance against the Soviet Union was still on) By the way, the projection that 'privatization' and 'quasi-democracy' are coming in 6 more years, that projection has been made in 1996, in 2000, in 2006, and now in 2012. And the total number of state owned firms has fallen. Its just that the ones that are left standing are all massive, and dominate their industries. And somehow mysteriously that final push to privatization never quite happens. But other than that, its a nice blog post. If people are genuinely interested in China's economy ya'll should check out these three books: http://www.amazon.com/Capitalism-Chinese-Characteristics-Entrepreneurship-State/dp/0521898102/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1346876203&sr=8-1&keywords=capitalism with chinese characteristics http://www.amazon.com/Red-Capitalism-Financial-Foundation-Extraordinary/dp/0470825863/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1346876203&sr=8-2&keywords=capitalism with chinese characteristics http://www.amazon.com/Factions-Finance-China-Conflict-Inflation/dp/B005E014EM/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1346876239&sr=8-2&keywords=factions and finance china | ||
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Boundz(DarKo)
5311 Posts
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Pro gamer registerin
15 Posts
and could you tell me,how exactly is PRC going to get from 9,6%(USA 1,7%) year gdp growth into " pretty hard economic landing"? | ||
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Carson
Canada820 Posts
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zatic
Zurich15328 Posts
On September 06 2012 05:17 Sub40APM wrote: If people are genuinely interested in China's economy ya'll should check out these three books: http://www.amazon.com/Capitalism-Chinese-Characteristics-Entrepreneurship-State/dp/0521898102/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1346876203&sr=8-1&keywords=capitalism with chinese characteristics http://www.amazon.com/Red-Capitalism-Financial-Foundation-Extraordinary/dp/0470825863/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1346876203&sr=8-2&keywords=capitalism with chinese characteristics http://www.amazon.com/Factions-Finance-China-Conflict-Inflation/dp/B005E014EM/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1346876239&sr=8-2&keywords=factions and finance china I am reading the first one currently. It's not the easiest read, but the best source on the Chinese economy I have found so for. Fantastic book on China. | ||
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Dfgj
Singapore5922 Posts
On September 06 2012 08:11 zatic wrote: I am reading the first one currently. It's not the easiest read, but the best source on the Chinese economy I have found so for. Fantastic book on China. Read some segments of the first as well. Useful. | ||
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Aerisky
United States12129 Posts
Still, if anything, an interesting and fun read. You're good at this. | ||
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phfantunes
Brazil170 Posts
Awesome post! | ||
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imre
France9263 Posts
On September 06 2012 01:37 Carnivorous Sheep wrote: Thr history was good but I feel like you go a tad overboard on the speculation. Also you don't clearly distinguish between fact and speculation, which obfuscates it for people who don't delve into the finer points of recent Chinese history :d it's poor practice to pass off your own opinion alongside historical fact as if there's no difference ~.~ That said it was very well written and an interesting read. Certainly a compelling narrative. Well it's an opinion piece from someone, afaik, isn't an expert so you've to take it with a bit of salt especially when the reformist pov is so obvious but nonetheless a great read even if it's way too dramatic for my taste (yeah I love boring straight up history :D) | ||
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Staboteur
Canada1873 Posts
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fatfail
United States386 Posts
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haduken
Australia8267 Posts
At work at the moment, bored shitless but our PCs are monitored for data usage. | ||
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Sub40APM
6336 Posts
On September 06 2012 08:11 zatic wrote: I am reading the first one currently. It's not the easiest read, but the best source on the Chinese economy I have found so for. Fantastic book on China. I've also had these recommended to me but they are still in my amazon queue but they do look legit: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0375422110/ref=ox_sc_act_title_9?ie=UTF8&smid=ATVPDKIKX0DER http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0132620197/ref=ox_sc_act_title_7?ie=UTF8&smid=ATVPDKIKX0DER | ||
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Sub40APM
6336 Posts
On September 06 2012 08:39 phfantunes wrote: I'm interested in that Zhang Ziyi deal. Awesome post! I think shes engaged or married already to a rich Israeli guy. So good news for you, just get rich! | ||
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