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I enjoy sports betting - football (soccer), mma, tennis, nba, f1 (psyched it starts soon), and ofcourse, SC2!
I tend to make a profit on my bets, so I decided to make a blog of my thoughts and tips for TSL3 betting 
I used to do all my SC2 bets on xlbet until that went busto and took my moneys, so now I use Pinnacle, which has better odds and is much more trustworthy and reputable anyway.
I feel my knowledge of the players and the game is very strong since I've played against a lot of them and spend too much time watching streams (I bet alicia to beat mvp /brag ;P)
Brief guide for beginners + Show Spoiler +
What are decimal odds?
The odds I will be using are decimal odds,a quick introduction to how they work by using examples. Odds of 2.000 are are even odds, you bet 1 unit, you win 1 unit if your bet wins. The odds show what you would get back with a 1 unit bet, your winnings plus your original stake. You multiply your stake by the odds.
Examples:
a) bet 5 units at 1.600 and win, you get 8 units back (1.6x5), 5 for your stake, 3 in winnings.
b) bet 3 units at 4.000 and win, you get 12 units back (4x3), 3 for your original stake, 9 in winnings.
How much to bet?
You should bet in units, where 10 units is your max bet and 1 is your smallest. You would tend to bet 10 units when you feel the odds are strongly in your favour and is not a speculative bet (long odds, lets say 5 and above). The size of 1 unit is different for every gambler, it depends on the size of your bankroll and how careful you want to be, I would recommend that 1 unit is no more than 0.5% of your bankroll - for example if you have £100, a 10 unit bet would be £5, a 1 unit bet would be £0.50. This decreases your risk of blowing through your money quickly, and also helps combat against bad variance - a bad "run".
So onto the matches for the first weekend of play...
(odds are taken from the time this post was made at http://www.pinnaclesports.com/)
BoxeR_____1.752
NightEnD___2.140
+ Show Spoiler +An interesting one here, a lot of sounds I'm hearing from top EU players are expecting NightEnd to be one of the first to knock one of the koreans out of the tournament, his odds have shortened, I believe he opened around 2.240 so most of the betting so far has been on him. I think its hard to know what just how good BoxeR will be. Therefore I won't be placing a bet on this match but watching it with a lot of interest.
Tyler______1.806
Strelok____2.060
+ Show Spoiler +When this bet opened it had the odds the other way round, and I bet 10 units on Tyler at 2.060. If the two were to meet in a random ladder game or in a one day tourney, I think it would be a close matchup, but preparation is where Tyler shines, he will study his opponent and have a build ready for each map and have his timings down. I would have probably bet Tyler if his odds were down around 1.6, so when I saw it open at over 2, I instantly bet my max before the odds came down, and I still recommend putting 8 units on him at his current price of 1.806.
Sen_____1.433
Fenix____2.940
+ Show Spoiler +I am a big fan of both these players, I believe they are both, on their day competing with the best in the world, Fenix's play recently hasn't been up to his normally stellar standards, since he broke his hand really. Sen has been quiet recently too in the foreign scene, I haven't heard much of him. I'd put Sen as a favourite but if Fenix is able to bring his form from before he broke his hand I feel this would be a close match. It's been a few months since Fenix bust up his hand so im hoping his top form is just around the corner, so I placed a small bet on Fenix of 4 units when the price was 2.740, so it seems since then others are placing their money on Sen. Personally i'd have set the line somewhere around Sen - 1.625, Fenix 2.30
ThorZaiN____3.350
FruitDealer__1.351
+ Show Spoiler +No bet here for me yet, I feel its tougher to measure the skill difference between the non-koreans and koreans at this stage with little play between the two sets of players so far, FD has to be the favourite but I find it hard to set in my head just how much of a favourite he is. May try a bet on FD if his odds get longer but I doubt they will
MC______1.163
Ciara____5.610
+ Show Spoiler + I got a bet in on MC as soon as this opened when his odds were at 1.183, I find it really hard to see him losing a PvZ. Its a very tough matchup currently for zergs and MC is the number one protoss in the world to make, I can't see anything but a win for MC, I would bet him down to around 1.12
White-Ra___1.699
Loner______2.220
+ Show Spoiler +This has been the biggest mover I believe since the odds opened, where both players were around ~1.950, since then it appears all the moneys been going on White-Ra. I'm not going to bet this match though, as I believe the outcome will depend on which White-Ra we see, sometimes he will win 3 tourney in a weekend, the next he will seem to be off his game. Loner I feel had also shown inconsistent results through his SC2 career so far. Hoping for a White-Ra win tho, you cant help but love the fella.
HasuObs__2.570
HuK______1.541
+ Show Spoiler +So HuK got exactly what he didn't want, a non-korean and a protoss. The reason he didn't want this is because its a very volatile matchup and the non koreans are more unpredictable, which makes the game more of a gamble. This leads me to be tempted to but on a small bet with Hasu if his odds get any bigger, which it may so since HuK may receive quite a few fanboy bets. Currently though no bet
Jinro_____1.435
MorroW__2.930
+ Show Spoiler +Really looking forward to this match. I have to put things in favour of Jinro though. Morrow is a great player and loves a macro style, same as Idra, but my opinion is that although great, he is not as good as Idra, and we have seen the results of Jinro/Idra's meetings. Tempted to put a medium sized bet on Jinro here, I don't think we will see many all in gambling type game, most likely macro games which both players prefer, but at which I feel Jinro will have better results.
So to summerize, the bets I have put on are as follows:
10 units @ 2.060 on Tyler > Strelok (odds currently not as good)
4 units @ 2.760 on Fenix > Sen (better odds avaliable for this bet now!)
8 units @ 1.183 on MC > Ciara (odds currently not as good)
Also may bet on Jinro, especially if his odds get any bigger.
Odds for outright winner
+ Show Spoiler +
101 MC______________5.480
102 NesTea___________7.540
103 MVP_____________9.040
104 Genius___________16.08
105 Jinro_____________17.080
106 IdrA______________17.080
107 NaDa____________18.090
108 FruitDealer________18.090
109 HuK_____________20.10
110 Kas______________22.110
111 BoxeR____________25.120
112 Sen______________27.130
113 Naniwa___________30.140
114 RET_____________30.140
115 NIGHTEND________35.170
116 MORROW_________50.240
117 HASUOBS________65.310
118 HAYPRO__________70.340
119 STRELOK_________75.360
120 WHITE-RA________80.390
121 TLO______________90.430
122 Mondragon________100.480
123 CrunCher_________111.540
124 Fenix____________121.580
125 ThorZaIN_________131.630
126 Tyler_____________141.680
127 Loner____________141.680
128 qxc______________166.800
129 GoOdy___________191.920
130 Adel_____________242.160
131 Ciara___________242.160
132 ZeeRaX__________292.40
We see koreans/foreigners in korea taking the top 9 slots. My thoughts on who are longer odds than they should be are
a) Tyler - very long odds imo at 141.680, protoss are having a good time at the moment and as I said earlier, this kind of tournament is where he shines. I cant see why (no offence intended) a protosses like Cruncher and HasuObs are shorter odds.
b) MC - the favourite for the tournament, but deservedly so. If he wins his semi-final against genius or mvp i can't see anyone stopping him.
So my bets here are:
2 units @ 141.680 on Tyler
4 units @ 5.480 on MC
I'll end things with one last tip for the second weekend of matches which I've had a quick look at, ZeeRaX to beat Mondragon, 7 units @ 2.360! Will post my full analysis on next weekends matches after this weekend.
Good luck if you decide to bet, but please don't get carried away and bet money you can't afford to lose! Can't wait for the show to begin
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That's cool I didn't know there was a site that let us bet on e-sports hah. Nice blog.
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United States24745 Posts
A couple of questions:
1) How did they originally determine those odds? Any idea?
2) This isn't available to Americans, right?
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I think nightend is a good bet, boxer has been so lackluster and especially against protoss.
(Seconding hype for f1 season!)
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On March 19 2011 08:24 micronesia wrote:
A couple of questions:
1) How did they originally determine those odds? Any idea?
2) This isn't available to Americans, right?
That's correct. Which is sad, since I would love to make some small bets on esports. Would've made a lot of cash on gsl4!
If there is a place to bet for Americans I'd like to know about it, though.
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On March 19 2011 08:24 micronesia wrote:
A couple of questions:
1) How did they originally determine those odds? Any idea?
2) This isn't available to Americans, right?
1) They will employ someone who sets them and its his job to know how good the players are and set the odds as well as they can, they will then change depending on where all the money is being bet, if player A is receiving a lot of bets, the odds will shorten. If you know the probabilities of a player winning better than the man setting them, then that is where you can make money.
2) I don't think it is, the official line on the website is
"Pinnacle Sports is licensed by the Central Government of the Netherlands Antilles. Since every state throughout the world has different laws, it is not possible for Pinnacle Sports to advise you about the legality of Internet gambling from your region. For accurate information on your place of residency, we would recommend that you check with your local governmental authorities or a qualified lawyer."
and I believe in the US online gambling is illegal.
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United States24745 Posts
On March 19 2011 08:31 rANDY wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2011 08:24 micronesia wrote:
A couple of questions:
1) How did they originally determine those odds? Any idea?
2) This isn't available to Americans, right? 1) They will employ someone who sets them and its his job to know how good the players are and set the odds as well as they can, they will then change depending on where all the money is being bet, if player A is receiving a lot of bets, the odds will shorten. If you know the probabilities of a player winning better than the man setting them, then that is where you can make money.
How does the site make money on this service? Is the average TSL fan worse at predicting outcomes than the employee who does the research?
Man I miss out on so much fun online stuff because of the laws in my country :p
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On March 19 2011 08:35 micronesia wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2011 08:31 rANDY wrote:On March 19 2011 08:24 micronesia wrote:
A couple of questions:
1) How did they originally determine those odds? Any idea?
2) This isn't available to Americans, right? 1) They will employ someone who sets them and its his job to know how good the players are and set the odds as well as they can, they will then change depending on where all the money is being bet, if player A is receiving a lot of bets, the odds will shorten. If you know the probabilities of a player winning better than the man setting them, then that is where you can make money. How does the site make money on this service? Is the average TSL fan worse at predicting outcomes than the employee who does the research? Man I miss out on so much fun online stuff because of the laws in my country :p
They total odds dont add up to 100%, I find this hard to explain so I will give an example.
Say two players are evenly matched, they won't set the odds at:
Player A______2.000
Player B______2.000
but instead set them at
Player A______1.950
Player B______1.950
So they have some room to play with, if you have the same knowledge as the person setting the odds, over the long term you will slowly lose money to the bookmaker. I hope this was clear enough.
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Feel sorry for the boys down south. I'm all over this. Thanks for the blog, very cool and interesting.
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i think your bets look very solid, i'm very surprised tyler has such high odds. i can't help but think theres some value in loner there though and i'm surprised the odds aren't more close. for overall winner it looks quite tough but there could be something in backing MVP there maybe? despite going out of code s last week i still think the guys got serious skills and theres gotta be a chance. hes gotta beat MC just to get to the final and while MC is of course the favourite i can still see him winning a best of 5 against him and then beating huk/jinro/idra/nestea/whoever in the final
Is there any meaning to the capitalisation in the spoiler?
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Belgium9949 Posts
The TSL was the first big tournament to include the GSL maps and they definitely change a lot of things. I think you should definitely include practice possiblities in your analysis. Players that traditionally rely more on the ladder for practice will have a hard time adapting to the new maps.
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On March 19 2011 09:05 rolfe wrote:
i think your bets look very solid, i'm very surprised tyler has such high odds. i can't help but think theres some value in loner there though and i'm surprised the odds aren't more close. for overall winner it looks quite tough but there could be something in backing MVP there maybe? despite going out of code s last week i still think the guys got serious skills and theres gotta be a chance. hes gotta beat MC just to get to the final and while MC is of course the favourite i can still see him winning a best of 5 against him and then beating huk/jinro/idra/nestea/whoever in the final
Is there any meaning to the capitalisation in the spoiler?
the capitalisation is just copy pasted from pinnacle's site, it has no meaning.
I can't see much value to placing a bet on MVP at his odds, his path takes him through Genius who just 2-0'd him days ago, then Nada/TLO/Kas or Haypro, then MC who is better than Genius, and then the winner of the other side, probably nestea or jinro.
Since hes at 9.040 to win the whole thing lets look at the odds this way
Lets give him some estimated odds of each round
1.2 to beat Adelscott
2.0 to beat Genius
1.8 to beat Nada/TLO/etc
2.5 to beat MC
2.0 to beat Nestea/whoever in finals
multiply those probabilities together we get odds of 21.6, which makes it look as though there is not much value in a bet at 9.040
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On March 19 2011 09:13 RaGe wrote:
The TSL was the first big tournament to include the GSL maps and they definitely change a lot of things. I think you should definitely include practice possiblities in your analysis. Players that traditionally rely more on the ladder for practice will have a hard time adapting to the new maps.
Yea the map differences will mostly apply to Korean vs non-Korean clashes I believe (in favour of Koreans), which at this stage I have avoided betting on. In future rounds this will come into consideration more if I decide to bet on some korean vs non-Korean matches.
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Great post, thanks for this!
Looking at the site, I see a couple matches I would bet on. Damn my countries laws!!
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Just moved some lines on pinny. On the opposite side of you with mondragon. I think he has about 60-65% chance to win the mu.
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Would bet mondragon down to about 1.695.
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Attention: This post contains SPOILERS about GSTL!
I find this post very interesting, as I am also into eSports betting, so I would be very interested in discussing some of the new odds with you guys.
First of all I would start by saying that I find matches in the GSTL (yes, pinnacle has odds for it too) even easier to predict than TSL3 (as there are more factors to consider in TSL3 such as latency, preparation methods etc.) For example, ST had around 1.7 odds to win against Prime today, with ST being huge favorites in my mind. + Show Spoiler + Well, ST won the match 4:1 easily.. and I made some nice money with my medium sized bet
Anyway, tomorrow we have IM vs TSL and Slayers vs ST, with both IM and ST starting at around 1.5 to win. I'd say these odds are extremely good for IM, as IM in my opinion are the best team there is, and TSL would qualify as 3rd-4th best, not being anywhere near IM's level. I believe Slayers might make an upset against ST, although I am not so sure so I wouldn't bet on that.
Concerning TSL3, I agree with randy's opinion that there is good value in betting for Zeerax against Mondragon. I cannot think of even 1 tournament in which mondragon has participated or done something memorable in (concerning SC2), and Zeerax is actually a good player. I also feel Kas is a really good bet vs haypro even at 1.58 (was higher before). Kas I feel is the better player, and the latency haypro will experience because he plays from korea will make his chances even smaller.
Naniwa vs Ret, I am tempted to bet for Ret at 1.94 (vs Naniwa at 1.9). I would say Ret is the better player, but the fact that he's playing from Korea as well as that it's PvZ makes me reluctant here.
Anyway, I would love to hear your opinions.
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Ret is not playing from Korea. He is back home in the Netherlands. So if you were leaning towards ret and were put off by the latency problem, you might want to know that.
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I didn't know that, thanks a lot my friend ;]
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EPT
