Pick Your Power Mafia! - Page 8
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On May 01 2010 19:37 Bill Murray wrote: i don't know if i will take inventor, as I can't trust anyone (they have to give their gifts to someone) Just start giving out bulletproof vests. They help a town player much more than they help a mafia player, so it doesn't really matter who you give them to. Or invent something that will only help a town player.... I'll think on this. | ||
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Assuming BM is pro-town and follows the plan, does this make sense? Potential problems: Paranoid Doctors would cancel the inventors ability; the mafia will likely have additional KP Also, I think it likely that the mafia would hedge their bets when sending in numbers. Send in [3][1], [4][1], [5][1] and then a very high number which would be unlikely to be doubled up on(15-20). Not just the low numbers. BM, do you have any reason for not telling us your number? | ||
DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
1. Bill Murray - [1] [1] ? confirmation needed 2. "L"- [1][?] ? confirmation needed 3. Foolishness [1][?] ? confirmation needed 4. Korynne [1][5] 5. Falcynn 6. [NyC]HoBbes - [4] [1] 7. ~Opz~ 8. d3_crescentia - [4][14] 9. Caller 10. sidesprang 11. Qatol - [6] [1] 12. JeeJee 13. DarthThienAn [8][1] 14. johnnyspazz 15. Amnesia 16. Zona 17. citi.zen - [12] [3] 18. Radfield - [10][1] 19. Scamp - presumably [10][1] He's the updated draft order, as far as I can tell - I picked [8][1]. Falcynn must have either gotten "[1][5+] or [4][1] with Hobbes. Opzz could have either gone for [4][1] or [4][<14]. Either way, he picked [4]. Caller/sidesprang must have picked between [4][15+] and [6][1]. JeeJee could have gotten [6][?] or [8][1] (stuck with me) johnnyspazz could have been [8][1] or [8][?] as well. Amnesia and Zona got anywhere from [8][] to [12][]. Radfield's numbers make NO sense to me ([10][1]). Not pointing the figure I'm just really confused about how the draft order worked. If everyone got duped, then how is [10] after [12]? We really need our top players to announce their numbers - it's possible that BM dodged a dupe and that's why he's on top. But that still doesn't explain why Radfield is behind citi.zen. Scamp's number would help as well. | ||
sidesprang
Norway1033 Posts
As to guessing what numbers the mafia picked, and apply some logic behind it, i think it would problably be as hard as to get a succesfull day 1 lynch. Atleast untill we catch one of the mafias | ||
johnnyspazz
Taiwan1470 Posts
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On May 01 2010 14:09 Qatol wrote: Okay, fun time. I've been doing some thinking about the game setup and have some thoughts for the town going forward: The first major item of note is this: + Show Spoiler [Vanilla Scum] + You are Vanilla Scum! The ability to kill 1 player per night belongs to you. One of you must PM me a kill for the night even though all 4 of you participate in the kill. Remember you can coordinate your # picks during the draft phase. The Mafia team this round consists of: Jack, Jill, this bottle and my ecstasy pills! You win when you outnumber the town, or there is no way for them to stop you from outnumbering them. This tells us 2 things: 1. The mafia only have 1 KP in a game with 19 players. They also only have 4 members. Why is this important? With all the rolecheck abilities out there, the mafia are unlikely to stand much of a chance unless they get some very powerful roles. 2. The mafia team knew who each other were during the draft phase and were allowed to communicate with each other during said phase. Assuming they talked to each other at all, they did not overlap with each other. These 2 points lead us to a pretty simple conclusion: The mafia made sure they have very low numbers and their numbers were probably consecutive in order to guarantee that they would wind up with powerful role choices. I wouldn't be surprised if they did something like: [3] [1] [4] [1] [5] [1] [6] [1] in order to avoid overlapping with the town as much as possible while still keeping near the top. I think it is unlikely that they bid a [1] [1] or even a [2] [1] just because they were worried the town would also bid those numbers. Bill Murray already claimed he bid [1] [1]. I wouldn't be surprised if this was actually the case. I think L probably bid [2] [1] hoping that people would stack on 1. The people I'm looking at right now are these people in particular: 3. Foolishness 4. Korynne 5. Falcynn I strongly believe that 1 or 2 of them are mafia. They are also likely to go for the roles the mafia will rely upon for the game. Remember that aside from the Copy Cat (which would be a risky role for the mafia to take), if the mafia want a role that gives them additional KP, they are likely to take it with these picks. I'm specifically thinking that the mafia here will be targeting Jack of All Trades, Day Vigilante, and Vengeful Player. Keep these 3 players in mind for later. I also propose that people announce something: whether or not you moved down and what you bid. Why would you do that and why would it matter? Because it gives us an idea of what range people bid in. Remember, we want to piece together who bid what because the mafia did not stack numbers on top of each other. I realize that the mafia can lie about this, but it really doesn't matter. If they lie about their bidding numbers, then the town has an opportunity to catch them in a lie based on who else bid that number. If someone moved down, they are placed in a group with the people around them. When you find a mafia in that group, it increases the level of trust with the people around you. With this in mind, I would like to announce that I moved down. I bid [6] [1] thinking that the mafia might try for consecutive numbers starting between 2 and 4. That would mean that they would end between 6 and 8. I'm almost positive I overlapped with one of the mafia. This means that we should also be looking very hard at: 10. sidesprang 12. JeeJee I confirmed with Ace that this situation: A - [3] [1] B - [3] [1] C - [5] [1] D - [5] [2] will result in: A and B are ordered randomly, C, D. The second tie does not move you down a second time. This means that anyone who moved down yet is still above me bid at least a 6. Everyone below me moved down AND bid at most a 6. If you bid between 3 and 5 and moved down, it is especially important that you speak up. Why am I coming forward with this information right now and not after roles are selected? Because I want the town to deny the mafia the most powerful roles or at the very least control their use. We can't stop the mafia from taking roles to increase their KP, but we can still control who gets what role and try to keep the mafia away from the 3 most important ones: Inventor, Compulsive Vigilante, and Role Blocker. Why are these roles especially important? The first 2 provide the mafia with kill power EVERY NIGHT. The third one allows the mafia flexibility to get around this plan. Therefore, I want Bill Murray to take Inventor and L's replacement to take Compulsive Vigilante. Foolishness will take Roleblocker. Bill Murray, you will be making meth bombs (if Ace allows it) or at least bulletproof vests for people every night. The day post will confirm that you followed these directions. This way you cannot give the mafia additional kill power. L's replacement, the town will be directing your shots. We will vote during the day on your hit. Foolishness, you will not be roleblocking anyone. If anyone claims to be roleblocked, we will immediately lynch you. Roleblocks are much stronger for the mafia than they are for the town. I would just as soon nobody get them. tl;dr: Look hard at these 5: 3. Foolishness 4. Korynne 5. Falcynn 10. sidesprang 12. JeeJee Claim your numbers. Revealing this information does not hurt the town but does hurt the mafia. Bill Murray, L's replacement, Foolishness: you have additional instructions. Read them. Did anyone else interpret this post as "waaa I'm upset that I was outsmarted by all these people and ended up low on the draft list waaa"? I indeed picked 1,1, meaning L picked 1,1 assuming BM isn't lying. | ||
DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
And I just realized that BM implied that he picked some random crazy number that was unique. On May 01 2010 19:37 Bill Murray wrote: i don't know if i will take inventor, as I can't trust anyone (they have to give their gifts to someone) Uhh... >.> | ||
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
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DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
On May 02 2010 03:23 Korynne wrote: Uh, considering BM said he picked some "crazy high numba" the only way L would be unique is if he picked a "craaaay-zay craaaay-zay high numba". It could happen =p, no? As long as BM didn't pick 20, there's a chance that L was unique. Else, he won the roll with Foolishness | ||
DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On May 01 2010 19:21 Bill Murray wrote: worry about what i pick, not what number i picked Bill, why are you withholding your number? As I've already explained, your number cannot hurt the town or the SK. It can only hurt the mafia. On May 01 2010 19:37 Bill Murray wrote: im as green as the grass on a lawn On May 01 2010 19:37 Bill Murray wrote: i don't know if i will take inventor, as I can't trust anyone (they have to give their gifts to someone) If you're really green, you would rather that you have the role Inventor than anyone else have it. If you don't want your targets to have anything good, give them something like a gun without bullets. If you actually want to help the side you just claimed for, you will give out veteran vests or alignment check kits because they don't help the mafia but they help the town. Then it doesn't matter who you gave your inventions to. Nothing else helps the town as much as taking that role. Don't try to out think this, Bill. Just think through the logic of the stuff I have already presented. On May 01 2010 19:26 Korynne wrote: I don't get why this is such a big deal. =( I'm worried about this plan Qatol. If Bill/L/Foolishness are mafia and just skip their designated thing or worse, pick someone else's then we're kinda screwed no? Like, if Bill picks compulsive vigilante, and then his mafia buddy later along the road picks up the inventor. We don't know who it is, and L can't get compulsive vigilante so we lose the double lynch... Bill acting funny has got me thinking and worried about this whole plan in general. Easily compensated for. First of all, it hands us a mafia with one of these 3 roles. That is a big hit for the mafia. Second of all, just consider taking one of them yourself (preference for the earlier ones in the list of 3). Just leave the threat out there that the "best" roles may not fall down to the mafia where they want to take them. On May 01 2010 19:15 Korynne wrote: Should I tell you guys my choice? Do not tell us until after the roles are given out. In fact, consider rethinking your choice if you don't trust Bill, L's replacement, or Foolishness. On May 02 2010 00:26 DarthThienAn wrote: Radfield's numbers make NO sense to me ([10][1]). Not pointing the figure I'm just really confused about how the draft order worked. If everyone got duped, then how is [10] after [12]? We really need our top players to announce their numbers - it's possible that BM dodged a dupe and that's why he's on top. But that still doesn't explain why Radfield is behind citi.zen. Scamp's number would help as well. On May 01 2010 16:39 Ace wrote: Wait I think I just noticed a sublte mistake in draft order. Updated It should be: Radfield Scamp Zona citizen before I had it as zona citizen radfield scamp That should account for your discrepancy. I'll post an updated list at the end of this post. On May 02 2010 00:31 sidesprang wrote: As to guessing what numbers the mafia picked, and apply some logic behind it, i think it would problably be as hard as to get a succesfull day 1 lynch. Atleast untill we catch one of the mafias Agreed. The numbers probably won't help us in the short run (unless the mafia lie and we catch them), but in the long run, it is a way to find mafia and innocents logically (meaning anyone can do it and the mafia can't argue their way out of it). On May 02 2010 03:04 Foolishness wrote: Did anyone else interpret this post as "waaa I'm upset that I was outsmarted by all these people and ended up low on the draft list waaa"? Thanks for the vote of confidence. You had better pick roleblocker. On May 02 2010 03:50 DarthThienAn wrote: On another note, are we following Qatol's plan for the first 3? Is there a good argument why we shouldn't? I haven't seen one so far. On May 01 2010 19:27 Radfield wrote: Seems to me that the Jack of all Trades needs to be monitored. It's just as powerful as Compulsive Vigiliante, if not more so. Since Korynne is on board, she could take that role. Not really. Compulsive Vigilante gets to hit every night. Jack gets 1 chance to use the Vigilante role. For the mafia, Investigate (gives alignment) is only useful for finding the SK, talk just isn't that strong except in the hands of very specific people, and Protect doesn't help the mafia much. Shoot is good. Remember, the Jack only gets 1 shot with each role. I'm honestly more worried about Day Vigilante (which can't be blocked). + Show Spoiler [Updated number list:] + 1. Bill Murray - high number (unique?) - hasn't completely claimed 2. L (or replacement when he/she gets access) - unique number or [1] [1] - hasn't claimed 3. Foolishness - [1] [1] 4. Korynne - [1] [5] 5. Falcynn [1] [5-20] or [4] [1] - hasn't claimed 6. [NyC]HoBbes - [4] [1] 7. ~Opz~ - [4] [1-14] - hasn't claimed 8. d3_crescentia - [4] [14] 9. Caller - [4] [14-20] or [6] [1] - hasn't claimed 10. sidesprang - [6] [1] 11. Qatol - [6] [1] 12. JeeJee - [6] [1-20] or [8] [1] - hasn't claimed 13. DarthThienAn - [8] [1] 14. johnnyspazz - [8] [4] 15. Amnesia [8] [4-20] or [10] [1] - hasn't claimed 16. Radfield - [10] [1] 17. Scamp - [10] [1-20] - hasn't claimed 18. Zona - [12] [1-3] - hasn't claimed 19. citi.zen - [12] [3] If you haven't claimed, you are a suspect. I expect the mafia to try and hold out as long as possible to give them flexibility about lying (just in case their number was tripled up). Claim your numbers! | ||
Caller
Poland8075 Posts
[6][1] here | ||
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
And then if we get paranoid of his role, he might've picked meth man instead and we all go omg we gotta check him and boom, all our investigators are dead (so let's please at least coordinate the rolechecking guys). So I'd say BM's role is pretty safe, in terms of he's outed the second day if he's not inventor. L's is the one I'm worried about, if he is mafia then he can pick meth man or jack of all trades and then when he finally gets outed like 3rd or 4th day then they have already easily secured the double lynch. Foolishness' role is pretty safe for town too, in terms of well if he tries to roleblock he gets killed. Why did you choose to place the compulsive vigilante role as second, Qatol? Also what are your thoughts on having somebody closer to the back of the draft claim copy cat? This way we know if mafia decides to steal it, and if they do we offer them up some "useless" role. I would suggest someone taking the Floridian at the end, just so we can lynch that person if copy cat is taken. Floridian being useless This way if copy cat is not mafia, then mafia will have to kill someone less significant the first night. If copy cat was mafia, it would still be pretty hard for them to do anything since town is watching them. So if compulsive vigilante dies first night, then we just treat copy cat as him instead. So really I see no drawbacks to this idea. Now to pick a copy cat, and to pick the Floridian. I suggest the following format: We want them to be closer to the back of the line, since we're wasting ability to get good KP/investigative roles if we put them in the front. So I suggest picking from 16 onwards. So I select: 18. Zona to be the Floridian. 17. Scamp to be the copy cat. Since both these roles are heavily controlled by town (and the Floridian is pretty much "useless") it wouldn't make sense for me to give these roles to my partners if I was scum, since Floridian pretty much kills one of 4 mafia roles, and the copy cat is controlled by town like the first couple roles. Any issues with this? | ||
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On May 02 2010 04:25 Qatol wrote: Lots of stuff to comment about: Thanks for the vote of confidence. You had better pick roleblocker. Is there a good argument why we shouldn't? I haven't seen one so far. Let me just say, that I highly doubt you would have posted all this stuff if you had wound up 1-5 on the list. Why do you fail to incriminate yourself in your analysis of what the town should do? On May 01 2010 14:09 Qatol wrote: tl;dr: Look hard at these 5: 3. Foolishness 4. Korynne 5. Falcynn 10. sidesprang 12. JeeJee And it's funny that you're number 11 on the list. According to your analysis, you are just as suspicious as anyone on that list, yet you fail to say so. And can you remind me why you picked 10-12 to "look hard at"? It seems arbitrary and a way to deflect attention off yourself (I may have missed it in your post if you already said so). And why do you neglect BM and L in this list? As far as we know, they both picked 1,1 with me. My guess is you're trying to butter them up so they listen to your plan. We all know how sensitive BM and L are; if you incriminated them they probably wouldn't listen to you at all (and it's kinda funny how BM doesn't want to listen to you anyways). | ||
DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
On May 02 2010 04:25 Qatol wrote: Lots of stuff to comment about: Bill, why are you withholding your number? As I've already explained, your number cannot hurt the town or the SK. It can only hurt the mafia. If you're really green, you would rather that you have the role Inventor than anyone else have it. If you don't want your targets to have anything good, give them something like a gun without bullets. If you actually want to help the side you just claimed for, you will give out veteran vests or alignment check kits because they don't help the mafia but they help the town. Then it doesn't matter who you gave your inventions to. Nothing else helps the town as much as taking that role. Don't try to out think this, Bill. Just think through the logic of the stuff I have already presented. Easily compensated for. First of all, it hands us a mafia with one of these 3 roles. That is a big hit for the mafia. Second of all, just consider taking one of them yourself (preference for the earlier ones in the list of 3). Just leave the threat out there that the "best" roles may not fall down to the mafia where they want to take them. Do not tell us until after the roles are given out. In fact, consider rethinking your choice if you don't trust Bill, L's replacement, or Foolishness. That should account for your discrepancy. I'll post an updated list at the end of this post. Agreed. The numbers probably won't help us in the short run (unless the mafia lie and we catch them), but in the long run, it is a way to find mafia and innocents logically (meaning anyone can do it and the mafia can't argue their way out of it). Thanks for the vote of confidence. You had better pick roleblocker. Is there a good argument why we shouldn't? I haven't seen one so far. Not really. Compulsive Vigilante gets to hit every night. Jack gets 1 chance to use the Vigilante role. For the mafia, Investigate (gives alignment) is only useful for finding the SK, talk just isn't that strong except in the hands of very specific people, and Protect doesn't help the mafia much. Shoot is good. Remember, the Jack only gets 1 shot with each role. I'm honestly more worried about Day Vigilante (which can't be blocked). + Show Spoiler [Updated number list + 1. Bill Murray - high number (unique?) - hasn't completely claimed 2. L (or replacement when he/she gets access) - unique number or [1] [1] - hasn't claimed 3. Foolishness - [1] [1] 4. Korynne - [1] [5] 5. Falcynn [1] [5-20] or [4] [1] - hasn't claimed 6. [NyC]HoBbes - [4] [1] 7. ~Opz~ - [4] [1-14] - hasn't claimed 8. d3_crescentia - [4] [14] 9. Caller - [4] [14-20] or [6] [1] - hasn't claimed 10. sidesprang - [6] [1] 11. Qatol - [6] [1] 12. JeeJee - [6] [1-20] or [8] [1] - hasn't claimed 13. DarthThienAn - [8] [1] 14. johnnyspazz - [8] [4] 15. Amnesia [8] [4-20] or [10] [1] - hasn't claimed 16. Radfield - [10] [1] 17. Scamp - [10] [1-20] - hasn't claimed 18. Zona - [12] [1-3] - hasn't claimed 19. citi.zen - [12] [3] If you haven't claimed, you are a suspect. I expect the mafia to try and hold out as long as possible to give them flexibility about lying (just in case their number was tripled up). Claim your numbers! Ah, that does explain it. I looked at Ace's post backwards and took the wrong numbers as the right ones. @the argument against your plan, I haven't seen one, but I've seen a reluctance from BM / slight reluctance (or something) from Foolishness. Still nothing from L / his replacement. + Show Spoiler [ My updated number list:] + 1. Bill Murray - high number (unique?) - hasn't completely claimed 2. L/replacement - unique number or [1] [1] - hasn't claimed 3. Foolishness - [1] [1] 4. Korynne - [1] [5] 5. Falcynn [1] [5-20] or [4] [1] - hasn't claimed 6. [NyC]HoBbes - [4] [1] 7. ~Opz~ - [4] [1-14] - hasn't claimed 8. d3_crescentia - [4] [14] 9. Caller - [6] [1] 10. sidesprang - [6] [1] 11. Qatol - [6] [1] 12. JeeJee - [6] [1-20] or [8] [1] - hasn't claimed 13. DarthThienAn - [8] [1] 14. johnnyspazz - [8] [4] 15. Amnesia [8] [4-20] or [10] [1] - hasn't claimed 16. Radfield - [10] [1] 17. Scamp - [10] [1-20] - hasn't claimed 18. Zona - [12] [1-3] - hasn't claimed 19. citi.zen - [12] [3] On May 02 2010 04:40 Korynne wrote: I don't know. But if any of the first two are mafia we're pretty screwed with this plan. If I was mafia I'd rather let BM or L die, and then have double kill power for the rest of the nights. BM can only hide for 1 night if he isn't the inventor. L can hide for 2 since vigi can't kill first night. Then next night we go oh shi--- mafia killed two people at night. And we can't even prove anything for sure, like if L takes Jack of all Trades, he can hide for 3 nights, or if town votes for the vigi hit to be on a townie during the night there's no reason not to just go ahead and do it. And then if we get paranoid of his role, he might've picked meth man instead and we all go omg we gotta check him and boom, all our investigators are dead (so let's please at least coordinate the rolechecking guys). So I'd say BM's role is pretty safe, in terms of he's outed the second day if he's not inventor. L's is the one I'm worried about, if he is mafia then he can pick meth man or jack of all trades and then when he finally gets outed like 3rd or 4th day then they have already easily secured the double lynch. Foolishness' role is pretty safe for town too, in terms of well if he tries to roleblock he gets killed. Why did you choose to place the compulsive vigilante role as second, Qatol? Also what are your thoughts on having somebody closer to the back of the draft claim copy cat? This way we know if mafia decides to steal it, and if they do we offer them up some "useless" role. I would suggest someone taking the Floridian at the end, just so we can lynch that person if copy cat is taken. Floridian being useless This way if copy cat is not mafia, then mafia will have to kill someone less significant the first night. If copy cat was mafia, it would still be pretty hard for them to do anything since town is watching them. So if compulsive vigilante dies first night, then we just treat copy cat as him instead. So really I see no drawbacks to this idea. Now to pick a copy cat, and to pick the Floridian. I suggest the following format: We want them to be closer to the back of the line, since we're wasting ability to get good KP/investigative roles if we put them in the front. So I suggest picking from 16 onwards. So I select: 18. Zona to be the Floridian. 17. Scamp to be the copy cat. Since both these roles are heavily controlled by town (and the Floridian is pretty much "useless") it wouldn't make sense for me to give these roles to my partners if I was scum, since Floridian pretty much kills one of 4 mafia roles, and the copy cat is controlled by town like the first couple roles. Any issues with this? I don't like the idea of the copycat/Floridian trade... we're sacrificing a player to give a mafia a crappy role, and that's only if they go for copycat. It doesn't tell us who the mafia is =[. Doing this means we 1st day lynch whoever gets the Floridian power, so we'd already be down a player... which is bad, yes? | ||
Zona
40426 Posts
On May 01 2010 14:09 Qatol wrote: I want the town to deny the mafia the most powerful roles or at the very least control their use. We can't stop the mafia from taking roles to increase their KP, but we can still control who gets what role and try to keep the mafia away from the 3 most important ones: Inventor, Compulsive Vigilante, and Role Blocker. Why are these roles especially important? The first 2 provide the mafia with kill power EVERY NIGHT. The third one allows the mafia flexibility to get around this plan. I think it's clear to everyone that Inventor and Compulsive Vigilante are by far the most powerful and influential roles in the game, so it's no surprise when you mention them, but I find it curious you lump the roleblocker with them. The roleblocker is a very weak role for town, and while it can be useful for mafia, there are far better picks for them. The only critical situation where I see mafia really wanting the roleblocker is to counter a vocal pro-town bulletproof player, as they will have no other way to get rid of them. It's true that the roleblocker can shut down a town power role, even perhaps the compulsive vig or inventor, but don't overestimate the importance of having such roles active for the town. A compulsive town vig will likely hit a lot of town anyways, and depending on which plan the town inventor follows (night-protect vests, investigate kits, etc), it's similar to a medic, or a cop. To be honest a town inventor might get more mileage out of more wild ideas than the ones presented so far. Still, this is just a relatively minor issue I have with your plan. On May 01 2010 15:19 Qatol wrote: There are several roles which are very important for someone to pick up this game. These roles are (in no particular order): The information roles - Tracker, Alignment Cop, Role Cop The hit-related roles - Medic, Meth Dealer, Veteran, Bulletproof Other - Copy Cat It is very important that we have at least the threat of these roles out there. With this in mind, I'm arguing that if you are near the bottom of the list, you should think very hard about selecting one of these roles. More importantly is the lack of focus on town grabbing powers that are important to town success. Particularly, investigative roles (tracker, alignment cop) that are very important for town. Now you mention that these are "very important" in your post but then ask that those near the bottom try to get them? Shouldn't players in the middle or even higher up aim to snag these? Your proposal seems focused on denying powers to mafia, which is a good thing. But that's only HALF the story, and missing the important other half: grabbing essential powers for the town. Without investigative roles on the town's side, the town's chances of winning are very low. When I was digging through statistics of played games when trying to ensure that the balance in Micro-MAFIA was as best as it could be - I found something very striking. In the absense of cops, even a 5:1 ratio of town to mafia was shown to be mafia favored. And it's striking how many games are lost for town when the cop dies early on. This showed me that investigative powers are core to a town's success. In fact, given the unknown sanity on the alignment cop - the tracker is likely the most powerful investigative role in the game. This is really why I don't like how you list roleblocker as the third thing for town to grab - when tracker and alignment cop are far more important for town members high up in the draft order to choose. It's all good to deny the mafia strong powers - I agree this is important. But if town gets denied the investigative powers, it will be very difficult to identify the right targets to lynch, unless you are banking on scum making mistakes. But I'll reiterate - in the absense of cops, even a 5:1 ratio of town to mafia was found to be mafia favored. Town needs the investigative powers. Getting investigative powers is as important, if not moreso, than denying mafia killing powers. So focusing on the latter misses at least half of the picture. Finally, I really dislike how you make a declaration as if your proposal is the only one to be followed, and make statements as extreme as "we will immediately lynch you" if someone steps out of line - especially when your plan is flawed. As well, if the top draft order people actually do listen to you, then they've basically claimed their role day 1, making it a lot easier for the mafia to take steps to mitigate their power. A major part of the mafia's game plan is to identify which players have the power roles which are a threat to them - your plan does that for them. I'd rather players make their picks in secret, and only claim when necessary. This keeps the mafia guessing as to who has what power, and who is really a threat to them. Summary and a proposed alternative: Qatol's plan focuses mainly on denying mafia powers (the good part) and misses the boat on grabbing essential town powers, such as investigative roles (the bad part). While he does mention the "importance" of various roles to the town, the way he asks players to pick does not put any real emphasis on getting such roles. Also, he wants certain players to pick certain roles - so if his plan is followed, it's clear to the mafia who owns what powers. Alternative, better proposal: Follow Qatol's emphasis on the compulsive vig and inventor roles, but not the roleblocker. Include the tracker and alignment cop in the "group of important roles". Do not follow Qatol's plan of person x in the draft order picks role y. Instead, if you are a town player high in the draft order, go for one of these, but don't make it obvious which one you have, so it's harder for mafia to arrange their plans on how to deal with these powers. While it's a risk that certain players in the draft order won't get their pick if not all the picks are laid out beforehand, that risk applies to mafia too. If town members DID in fact follow the plan and picked the role that they were told to, mafia can also pick roles without fear of being bumped into vanilla. | ||
Zona
40426 Posts
And it should be obvious that if citi.zen isn't lying, my first number had to be 12, otherwise there's no way he would have been bumped to the bottom below me. Actually since my pick was 12, 1, that confirms to me the authenticity of what citi.zen claims. But this stuff is useful for later, not now. It's also amusing when someone "feels strongly" that out of 4 or 5 players, at least one is scum. Given the distribution of the game, 4 mafia and 1 sk among 19 players, chances are picking any 4 or 5 players will include at least a scum, so it's not a useful or bold statement at all. | ||
DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
On May 02 2010 05:08 Zona wrote: I'm glad someone's stepping up with the first proposals for the town. Yet once again, in yet another game, I have to take issues with the blind spots in the plan, as well as the "I declare it, thus it must be so" tone and mindset. I think it's clear to everyone that Inventor and Compulsive Vigilante are by far the most powerful and influential roles in the game, so it's no surprise when you mention them, but I find it curious you lump the roleblocker with them. The roleblocker is a very weak role for town, and while it can be useful for mafia, there are far better picks for them. The only critical situation where I see mafia really wanting the roleblocker is to counter a vocal pro-town bulletproof player, as they will have no other way to get rid of them. It's true that the roleblocker can shut down a town power role, even perhaps the compulsive vig or inventor, but don't overestimate the importance of having such roles active for the town. A compulsive town vig will likely hit a lot of town anyways, and depending on which plan the town inventor follows (night-protect vests, investigate kits, etc), it's similar to a medic, or a cop. To be honest a town inventor might get more mileage out of more wild ideas than the ones presented so far. Still, this is just a relatively minor issue I have with your plan. More importantly is the lack of focus on town grabbing powers that are important to town success. Particularly, investigative roles (tracker, alignment cop) that are very important for town. Now you mention that these are "very important" in your post but then ask that those near the bottom try to get them? Shouldn't players in the middle or even higher up aim to snag these? Your proposal seems focused on denying powers to mafia, which is a good thing. But that's only HALF the story, and missing the important other half: grabbing essential powers for the town. Without investigative roles on the town's side, the town's chances of winning are very low. When I was digging through statistics of played games when trying to ensure that the balance in Micro-MAFIA was as best as it could be - I found something very striking. In the absense of cops, even a 5:1 ratio of town to mafia was shown to be mafia favored. And it's striking how many games are lost for town when the cop dies early on. This showed me that investigative powers are core to a town's success. In fact, given the unknown sanity on the alignment cop - the tracker is likely the most powerful investigative role in the game. This is really why I don't like how you list roleblocker as the third thing for town to grab - when tracker and alignment cop are far more important for town members high up in the draft order to choose. It's all good to deny the mafia strong powers - I agree this is important. But if town gets denied the investigative powers, it will be very difficult to identify the right targets to lynch, unless you are banking on scum making mistakes. But I'll reiterate - in the absense of cops, even a 5:1 ratio of town to mafia was found to be mafia favored. Town needs the investigative powers. Getting investigative powers is as important, if not moreso, than denying mafia killing powers. So focusing on the latter misses at least half of the picture. Finally, I really dislike how you make a declaration as if your proposal is the only one to be followed, and make statements as extreme as "we will immediately lynch you" if someone steps out of line - especially when your plan is flawed. As well, if the top draft order people actually do listen to you, then they've basically claimed their role day 1, making it a lot easier for the mafia to take steps to mitigate their power. A major part of the mafia's game plan is to identify which players have the power roles which are a threat to them - your plan does that for them. I'd rather players make their picks in secret, and only claim when necessary. This keeps the mafia guessing as to who has what power, and who is really a threat to them. Summary and a proposed alternative: Qatol's plan focuses mainly on denying mafia powers (the good part) and misses the boat on grabbing essential town powers, such as investigative roles (the bad part). While he does mention the "importance" of various roles to the town, the way he asks players to pick does not put any real emphasis on getting such roles. Also, he wants certain players to pick certain roles - so if his plan is followed, it's clear to the mafia who owns what powers. Alternative, better proposal: Follow Qatol's emphasis on the compulsive vig and inventor roles, but not the roleblocker. Include the tracker and alignment cop in the "group of important roles". Do not follow Qatol's plan of person x in the draft order picks role y. Instead, if you are a town player high in the draft order, go for one of these, but don't make it obvious which one you have, so it's harder for mafia to arrange their plans on how to deal with these powers. While it's a risk that certain players in the draft order won't get their pick if not all the picks are laid out beforehand, that risk applies to mafia too. If town members DID in fact follow the plan and picked the role that they were told to, mafia can also pick roles without fear of being bumped into vanilla. A few good points in here - but Roleblocker is still relatively important. The goal of getting Roleblocker early is to deny it from the mafia so that they can't roleblock our doctors, our cops, etc. Tracker is an interesting role since I've never seen it before - it does have a lot of potential though, as the chance of tailing a mafia is pretty high. So if the tracker's targets visits the dead person the next day, then we know who the mafia is. Could we arrange the first 4 to choose between these 4 roles then maybe? I had another role in mind that would be good but can't remember which one it was t.t | ||
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