|
On November 05 2008 01:09 Empyrean wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2008 01:07 HeRoS)Pink wrote:On November 05 2008 01:03 Empyrean wrote:
Honestly, I think vigis should definitely target Ace, as he's a sure mafia. We don't need to waste 48 hours of discussion on him for lynching...instead, we should wait for night clues, use those 48 hours to do analysis and then lynch someone new.
My suggestion for vigis is to kill Ace, decaf, and MidnightGladius. I also suspect BloodyCobbler, but that may be just me. well that might be difficult to do 1) yes Ace is sure to die to vigi's hand no need to waste a lynch on him 2) vigi doesnt know who are the other vigi's are, they might taget the same 3) also we should wait for the set of clues #2 before pointing fingers at bloodycobbler/decaf/midnightgladius Then we waste our vigi hits, since their powers aren't being used. And as for vigis being confused about who to hit, Chuiu says "If your hit overlaps with another Vigilante I will cancel all other hits but the first one and will notify anyone who's hit didn't go through the following day and you will be able to use it again." So it's not like they're wasting hit power, they just wouldn't use it for that night.
but think about it, if all vigi think that the other vigi will go on ace, then none will go on him, Ace will still be alive on day #3 , we can't allow that
+ if decaf/midnight are just simple townie we will have wasted 2 vigi hits + 2 of them will be easy for the mafia to kill(clues left behind) before they use their kill #2
|
I'm all for killing off Decaf and MidnightGladius, but it's possible Ace knew he was fucked and so decided to try and get us to lynch innocents after he's dead.
Still, certainly the best bet. Maybe Ace thought he could talk his way out of his situation.
|
16945 Posts
On November 05 2008 01:15 SoleSteeler wrote:
I'm all for killing off Decaf and MidnightGladius, but it's possible Ace knew he was fucked and so decided to try and get us to lynch innocents after he's dead.
Still, certainly the best bet. Maybe Ace thought he could talk his way out of his situation.
Ace, decaf, and MidnightGladius supported each other as early as page 18 onward.
|
well now we know to vote for ace
would have been worse if folca was green
still this comes out roughly even for town
|
16945 Posts
On November 05 2008 01:25 fusionsdf wrote:
well now we know to vote for ace
would have been worse if folca was green
still this comes out roughly even for town
Except there was the possibility mafia could anticipate incorrectly paramedic action, and we'd have another round of information from Folca.
Anyway, I'm still suggesting vigis to target Ace, decaf, and MidnightGladius. If each vigi votes randomy, there is only a 1/9 chance that they all independently target the same person, so 8/9 chance that at least two of the three die.
|
haha nice goin
|
On November 05 2008 00:43 Empyrean wrote:After the Folca deal, We can all agree that Ace is mafia. 12. Ace defends decafchicken like there's no tomorrow. He also says: Show nested quote +On November 03 2008 15:06 Ace wrote:
And of course I'm sure you would say that. Me defending decaf paints both of us mafia. So lynch me first now, instead of Folca even though the burden of proof is on him and he has nothing to do with decaf. Right. Makes perfect sense don't you think? 13. BloodyCobbler defends decafchicken. Show nested quote +On November 03 2008 15:11 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On November 03 2008 15:07 goldenkrnboi wrote:
## I vote for decafchicken
based on the clues and the arguments that several people have mentioned. Based on the clues? I destroyed them with facts that relate directly to FOOD INDUSTRY, coffee is a normal thing at the end of a meal, i also listed other names that are linked to a "meal" setting to begin with, ffs, they have been defeated, now new evidence is needed to continue the bandwagon 14. decafchicken, in the middle of a "lynch Folca today or tomorrow" discussion, once again says that some people are going off a clue that is way too easy to be true. He does this so much it's almost annoying. 15. Ace points out the following: No one can prove that Folca is a legit DT and no one can get anything except coffee = decafchicken as their best clue. He points out BloodyCobbler's defense of decaf.
Obv Ace is going to defend anyone who risks getting lynched instead of Folca. Seeing as he's mafia, he obv wants the DT dead and went to every length to get that to happen (including convincing me  )
And obviously i'm going to defend myself to the point of being obnoxious to save my life, especially when people completely ignore my defence.
As for c0bs motivation, i don't know other then we're friends :D
Aditional motivation for ace defending me (or anyone) is to frame me. By defending me, he knows that when he gets lynched, i will be under suspicion, taking pressure off the mafia so they have a buffer of townies on the chopblock before them.
|
+ Show Spoiler +On November 05 2008 00:43 Empyrean wrote:After the Folca deal, We can all agree that Ace is mafia. 1. MidnightGladius keeps on saying he might hvae some clue interpretation coming up later. He never does it. He starts saying this as early as page 22ish I believe. 2. Ace is the first to vote to lynch Folca. Folca himself is the second. 3. MidnightGladius is the third. His reason: Show nested quote +On November 03 2008 12:39 MidnightGladius wrote:
Intriguing.
## I vote to lynch Folca. 4. RTS)Nightmare is the fourth to vote Folca. 5. Folca accuses MidnightGladius of being mafia based on his signature (clue) and behavior. 6. SoleSteeler abstains. 7. Heros)Pink is the first to vote to lynch Ace on Folca's word alone. 8. Jimtudor thinks Folca looks legit. 9. Alventenie: Show nested quote +On November 03 2008 13:52 Alventenie wrote:
I myself think we should hold off lynching folca until tomorrow. Lynching him today means hes dead for sure, waiting until tomorrow means the mafia either:
A) kill him, to make sure he doesn't use any more abilities, or
B) let him live, trying to cast suspicion on him making him seem fake.
Instead we should try to find another mafia through the clues tonight. Once we lynch them (I am voting for decaf), tomorrow we lynch folca (if he is still alive, i believe he will be if we dont lynch him), that way he can use another ability tomorrow. If he turns blue, we vigi Ace so no one can save him, and with luck, drop the mafia kill count to 4 by tomorrow night.
You guys are really charging into this without thinking of your options. Folca pretty much is sacrificing himself, but at least use him for as much as possible. By the town killing him tonight, we give the mafia an extra kill tonight that they wont waste, and it means we have more time to look for other mafia. Lynching him now would be foolish, wasting his potential where we could chance getting a mafia on day 1, not a blue.
I vote for decafchicken
ps. I believe midnightgladius and jimtudor are people we need to watch for. Midnight for his sig + extremely quick to lynch folca without considering the options. I also think Jimtudor should be watched due to that fact that he is almost certain folca is legit, even though he wouldn't know that by just reading folca (i believe folca, but i am not certain he is legit, so im using him to get the biggest gain for the town). Townies please reconsider folca's proposition of lynching him tonight. Let him live through the night with no paramedics watching him to see if the mafia truly wish to kill him. 10. Empyrean: Show nested quote +On November 03 2008 13:57 Empyrean wrote:
If we don't lynch Folca, will he have a chance to use his powers again and report them before he dies? If so, then I wouldn't advise lynching Folca. He'll die anyway, so in death he'll be vindicated. If no mafia target him to make him look suspicious, we'll all lynch him anyway. That's why I don't want to vote Folca.
As for who to lynch, I still don't know if we can yet trust Folca (or he could be a mafia roleclaiming DT but Ace is also mafia...this way, Folca gains our trust while the mafia don't lose any killing power, and Folca can direct us to kill someone important later) since he's not dead, so because of this, I wouldn't vote for Ace either.
I'll still stay with what few clues we have and vote to lynch decafchicken.
I vote to lynch decafchicken.
Also, has the town abandoned the Mandalor style plan I suggested earlier? If not, then we should probably coordinate first and second suspects.
Also, when will Chuiu compile the vote list? 11. Alventenie tries to explain to MidnightGladius. Ace repeats MidnightGladius' argument, and a few posts later, Alventenie explains the same thing to Ace.: Show nested quote +On November 03 2008 14:36 Alventenie wrote:On November 03 2008 14:21 MidnightGladius wrote:
Folca, why do you keep bringing up my contributions to the site? Chu has never set the precedent of doing that in the previous two games, and there's no reason why he should start now. It would make clue interpretation much too erratic and difficult both for him and us. He would have to read through 10 (+ vigil/jack) posting histories on a regular basis and assume that the town does so as well. Also, clues derived from posts would be very easy to see as red herrings. If a mafia mentioned physics, would it be referencing your blog, Empyrean's schedule that he posted in this thread, Chezinu's mad scientist profile, fanaticist's pool table photo, etc.
Furthermore, there is no reason not to vote for you, given the claims you've made. Mafia's not going to kill you, since that would tip their hand either way and give the town tempo advantage. As is, the most efficient way to go about this would be to lynch you tonight. If you're red, you're red. If you're green, then screw you. And if you're confirmed DT, then town gets a confirmed kill through lynch, with maybe a second from clue analysis of the first night. Letting you get another cycle's worth of information would be nice, but the fast route is the only likely way the town has to reduce kill power, which is our top priority at the moment. Sigh, you are thinking so incorrectly, it furthers my belief that you are a mafia. You are pretty much charging in at first chance to lynch mafia, thinking only short term to get goals done. What you aren't thinking is long term. By lynching folca tonight, we lose his abilities for tomorrow, or we lose the play of forcing mafia to kill him. We also would be ignoring the entire day of clues, even if vague, at linking them to someone. Anyone voting folca obviously is just bandwagoning without thinking for themselves, meaning the mafia already have this game in control and will continue such a trend until the town is wiped out. Notice how no one until myself challenged lynching folca tonight instead of tomorrow. No one thought of what him being alive through the night does. The fast route to ONE mafia kill is to lynch him tonight. The fast route to multiple mafia lynchings is to lynch him tomorrow. Why? Because we pretty much are assured he will die, tonight (by mafia, wasting a kill they could of used on someone else if we lynch folca today), or tomorrow, when we lynch him. The fact that we should be looking for a mafia tonight is better than killing someone who has role called. Why? because if we kill said role call person, he flips blue, mafia kill 5, we then are lynching our first mafia, and then our vigilantes have ZERO targets until we analyze more clues, putting more townies to risk of dieing for being loud spoken. By lynching folca tomorrow, one of our vigi's have a confirmed mafia kill (if folca is detective and not mafia), and we put pressure on the mafia as to whether to let folca live or die tonight, or tomorrow. This gives us more information in the long run for finding mafia than lynching folca tonight. 12. Ace defends decafchicken like there's no tomorrow. He also says: Show nested quote +On November 03 2008 15:06 Ace wrote:
And of course I'm sure you would say that. Me defending decaf paints both of us mafia. So lynch me first now, instead of Folca even though the burden of proof is on him and he has nothing to do with decaf. Right. Makes perfect sense don't you think? 13. BloodyCobbler defends decafchicken. Show nested quote +On November 03 2008 15:11 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On November 03 2008 15:07 goldenkrnboi wrote:
## I vote for decafchicken
based on the clues and the arguments that several people have mentioned. Based on the clues? I destroyed them with facts that relate directly to FOOD INDUSTRY, coffee is a normal thing at the end of a meal, i also listed other names that are linked to a "meal" setting to begin with, ffs, they have been defeated, now new evidence is needed to continue the bandwagon 14. decafchicken, in the middle of a "lynch Folca today or tomorrow" discussion, once again says that some people are going off a clue that is way too easy to be true. He does this so much it's almost annoying. 15. Ace points out the following: No one can prove that Folca is a legit DT and no one can get anything except coffee = decafchicken as their best clue. He points out BloodyCobbler's defense of decaf. Show nested quote +On November 04 2008 01:26 Ace wrote:
It's sickening because if decaf flips green, and then I flip green what would you have to say? Stop trying to double think the mafia motive and just go for what's best for the town.
16. Caller: Show nested quote +On November 04 2008 04:49 Caller wrote:On November 04 2008 04:30 bumatlarge wrote:
If we left him alive, and mafia didn't kill him, they still could use that to throw suspicion on him. In fact, that's what I would do if I were mafia. We have to lynch him eventually. If he's blue, well he would be a dead blue anyway. yeah, we're lynching him TOMORROW. EVERYBODY PLEASE LISTEN: Lynch Folca Tomorrow. IF he is mafia, he cannot do any more damage. IF he isn't mafia, at least he can take another hit for some other townie tonight. If they don't hit him, we get another role check or something from him, no? Please please please understand this. 17. Amber[light] suggests (laughably...what a horrible suggestion) that another DT step up and ask about Folca's role, thus leading to another DT revealing himself. 18. Alventenie repeats that lynching either Ace or Folca tonight is just a bad idea. 19. MTF (long post): + Show Spoiler +On November 04 2008 09:42 MTF wrote:Ok, since it seems theres a movement to lynch Ace tonight, which I think is faulty, I'll try to exemplify this for everyone: Reasons to Lynch Ace:Clues: + Show Spoiler +
""We can trust no mayor, no governor, no authority this day or the next."
May relate to his role in the last game as an authority figure.
Other: + Show Spoiler +
He has been accused of a rolecheck by Folca, who has made several posts trying to provide information.
Clues: + Show Spoiler +"Many in the crowd were excessively enthusiastic about the lynching and many were grave and quiet." May be a reference to his profile picture.Other: + Show Spoiler +
He has accused Ace of being rolechecked as mafia and implicated several other prominent players, myself included, with faulty and rushed reasoning.
Lynching Ace or Folca is a fifty/fifty gamble, which is better than can be said of lynching any other person in the game right now. That being said, Ace has been setting plans into motion from the beginning and engaging in active discussion with the people trying to organize town. This is a good thing, and Ace's plans have not been openly malicious and have helped move town along in discussion and avoid the mistake (ironically) of revealing DT's for the towns gain due to the suicide bomber. Now, this is not to say I believe Ace is town for sure, as what he has done is the only smart thing he could do given the previous game. Ace is not proven innocent by any means. Neither, however, is Folca. And Folca came out of nowhere with his accusation and proceeded to call out several people with absolutely no basis for most of it. Now, mafia or true detective, this was not a smart thing to do. Considering this, one must ask the origin of the actions' desperation: the only thing other than simple foolishness I can think of is that everything is less organized this early in the game. That can only benefit mafia, as they start off from the very beginning in a structured manner. Accusing key members early on would only benefit them. Now, assuming Ace's innocence, implicating and taking him out this early on would eliminate one of the strongest structures that town could organize itself around. This alone may be worth the attempt by mafia, especially if they're banking on him having an additional role, as nearly half of all of the town does. I can see it argued the other way around easily enough, though, and it is a fair view to have that doing this as a mafia member or a true detective doesn't make much sense this early on. But Folca has done it, and we can only prove the why by lynching one tonight. The evidence that either is telling the truth is about even. The matter of choosing is simply in the behavior, and the hoped-for outcome, as either way we risk losing someone of value. Personally, I think Folca is lying, and even if he weren't, town wouldn't get a proven DT the following day, because mafia would be insane to keep a revealed DT alive. So, there is only one argument for voting Ace over Folca: You believe Folca for whatever reason and want to make mafia waste a hit tonight. However, the same exact thing can be said of Ace, as if Folca is indeed red, then they wanted Ace dead early on, and will undoubtably use at least one hit on him tonight. I guess that about sums up my feelings on the matter. Ace is inherently more valuable as a structure than an unproven detective that has been revealed if he is indeed innocent. Edit: As I wrote this, Bockit essentially put it in a much more succient manner. :p 20. fusionsdf loves MTF's clue analysis <3. 21. Caller's general suspects: Ace, Decafchicken, MidnightGladius, ulszz, SoleSteeler. Also points out that GiTM-Ace, Aznvaliance and Mandalor bandwagoned on Folca in a row without any reasons why. 22. BloodyCobbler insinuates that people who voted for decafchicken aren't smart players and that they don't read clue analysis. Page 36, bottom 3/4 of the page. 23. Ace once again reiterates decafchicken's defense of himself. A page later, he bandwagons on one of BloodyCobbler's arguments against Empyrean. 24. Empyrean thinks that Ace has strong arguments and even if he -is- mafia, he'd still be an asset to the town for a few days because he'd have to act the townie part.
My only defense of myself Emp is basically this:
The clues linking to decaf were thin at best, I told people that they were bandwagoning on the wrong idea of "its unusual to have coffee" after a meal when its not, while also bringing up other possible suspects. I was ignored and people continued to bandwagon without real cause. Had anyone refuted any of my points i would have been completely alright for it, but bandwagoners who dont consider what all is said are just going to hinder the game.
As for the rest of your analysis, good job on the compilation.
|
I believe we should definitely look into decaf, ace defended him and not midnight, there must be a reason. If decaf was not mafia Ace should have defended midnight since no one was really accusing midnightgladius and so he could be protecting someone random (so more chances of folca getting lynched). Although by doing so he COULD draw attention to midnight and gives off clue that midnight might be mafia.
|
Canada7170 Posts
My only problem with the MidnightGladius suspicion is that Ace could have possibly over-protected him, knowing that his time was up and that he wanted to leave a false trail. I mean, it doesn't seem like that to me, but it is a possibility.
|
On November 05 2008 01:18 Empyrean wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2008 01:15 SoleSteeler wrote:
I'm all for killing off Decaf and MidnightGladius, but it's possible Ace knew he was fucked and so decided to try and get us to lynch innocents after he's dead.
Still, certainly the best bet. Maybe Ace thought he could talk his way out of his situation.
Ace, decaf, and MidnightGladius supported each other as early as page 18 onward.
Fuckin' A then.
|
Guys. I think the most important thing to consider here is Ace.
Ace... how you like it?
|
On November 05 2008 01:18 Empyrean wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2008 01:15 SoleSteeler wrote:
I'm all for killing off Decaf and MidnightGladius, but it's possible Ace knew he was fucked and so decided to try and get us to lynch innocents after he's dead.
Still, certainly the best bet. Maybe Ace thought he could talk his way out of his situation.
Ace, decaf, and MidnightGladius supported each other as early as page 18 onward.
Well, here is how I see it, logically.
Case 1) Ace is mafia, decaf and Gladius are innocent.
Variant A
As you said, he defended them pretty early on. He knew he was mafia, and knew that they weren't. He defended them logically, playing it as if he was a townie - saying exactly what he would say if he wasn't Mafia at all. This way he is trying to appear as a protector to the town, keeping the town's best in interest in mind. This would raise his rep, make him appear less like a mafia. I find this alternative to be highly possible.
Variant B
I am taking your word on the fact that he defended them before the accusation here, so this is making this variant unlikely, but he could have been setting plans for the future. He probably knew it wouldn't be long before someone checks him, as most important players in the game ought to be checked to make sure they aren't misleading the town. As I and many others have said, it is very possible that he is that conniving and foreplanning given his reputation from previous games. This way, as I think you or fusion suggested, when people go back and see who Ace was adamant about defending, those 2 names would come up, and Ace would be taking two townie lives with him, or at least raising some sort of suspicion to once again dilute the list of actual Mafia being suspected. Of course he didn't know how soon his time would come, but that is irrelevant if you follow this logic. Although this seems possible, it is somewhat unlikely.
Case 2) Ace is mafia, decaf and/or Gladius are Mafia.
Variant A - Both are Mafia.
Ace is trying to defend his fellow Mafia from the gallows. Although this would be logical and highly probable in a normal situation, I don't think Ace is that simple. Maybe I am overestimating him, but I don't think he would overlook the fact that (as I mention in 1;B) he will be checked at some point in the game. With the presence of other strong players such as MTF, you, fusion, Plexa, etc., he should KNOW that someone would backtrack and try to find allegiances and connections based on behavior. The tenacity with which he defended them tells me that this is an unlikely case, it would make him and them too obvious. Like you said before, he would be trying to keep the town's best interest at least superficially in mind to limit any suspicions placed on him in the future. Hence, I find this unlikely.
Variant B - Only one is Mafia.
Ace is trying to defend his fellow Mafia from the gallows, and is trying to dilute the amount of Mafia he is directly defending. I find this possible, but given what I said in 2;A, I don't think this plan is as good as what Ace would have probably come up with (1;A).
Thus, since I find 1;A to be the most likely variant, I don't think I would point a finger at either decaf or MG based on Ace's defensiveness. I would look more into the clues. To me, the decaf clue is (as many have stated, and have been either suspected as Mafia or ignored) weak, and common, and serves as no evidence due to game 2. I doubt Chuiu did it on purpose as a red herring, it's just a normal thing, as cobbler said. The MG clue is pretty strong in my mind, and if no better suspects come out due to the upcoming clues, my vote will lie with him.
|
Canada7170 Posts
Thank you, fanatacist. I also find 1a to be the most likely case.
|
so many pages so fast...
i still don't understand why people voted to lynch folca... he was obviously townie, what mafioso would fake DT? once his accusations were proven wrong he would by lynched. if ace didn't turn up mafioso, then we would of lynched folca for his lies. so now we have a dead DT. we could of possibly saved a townie by lynching ace before folca.
|
Canada7170 Posts
On November 05 2008 04:40 ulszz wrote:
so many pages so fast...
i still don't understand why people voted to lynch folca... he was obviously townie, what mafioso would fake DT? once his accusations were proven wrong he would by lynched. if ace didn't turn up mafioso, then we would of lynched folca for his lies. so now we have a dead DT. we could of possibly saved a townie by lynching ace before folca.
Killing power would still be 5.
|
On November 05 2008 04:45 mikeymoo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2008 04:40 ulszz wrote:
so many pages so fast...
i still don't understand why people voted to lynch folca... he was obviously townie, what mafioso would fake DT? once his accusations were proven wrong he would by lynched. if ace didn't turn up mafioso, then we would of lynched folca for his lies. so now we have a dead DT. we could of possibly saved a townie by lynching ace before folca. Killing power would still be 5.
well, i mean there was more chance of ace being mafia than folca was.
|
On November 05 2008 04:47 ulszz wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2008 04:45 mikeymoo wrote:On November 05 2008 04:40 ulszz wrote:
so many pages so fast...
i still don't understand why people voted to lynch folca... he was obviously townie, what mafioso would fake DT? once his accusations were proven wrong he would by lynched. if ace didn't turn up mafioso, then we would of lynched folca for his lies. so now we have a dead DT. we could of possibly saved a townie by lynching ace before folca. Killing power would still be 5. well, i mean there was more chance of ace being mafia than folca was.
As said before, on day one with no definite clues pointing to people, we then got turfed into a person claiming DT and pointing a finger at someone who was insanely well respected and who if wasnt a mafia would be a huge benefit for the town. As such, lynching the accuser would prove if he was lying or not, which is what was done, now we have the next days lynch target.
It sucks that we lost a DT for this, but it wasnt for nothing, we catch a mafia, as well as someone who could have seriously destroyed the town if he had been let to. Perhaps if we get really really really lucky is is also the suicide bomber
|
16945 Posts
I think why people didn't want to vote Ace was the fact that Ace was such a strong player last game, and people irrationally hoped to have such a player again for the townie. They didn't want to be faced with the possibility that he was, in fact, mafia.
|
May i suggest and idea for vigi kills:
Town may agree on X number of suspects. We can lynch one and leave the suspect list so vigis hit on the suspect list.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT![[image loading]](http://lightsout.onestop.net/noose.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://images.odeo.com/2/5/8/pink_gun_bikini_gun.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://images1.hdpi.com/product_enlarged/3411_ButterKnife.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://www.freedigitalphotos.net/image/s_wooden-spoon.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://www.cinemablend.com/images/news_img/4240/4240.jpg)
