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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
On November 25 2024 21:08 Simberto wrote:
Governments would need to do stuff for the people instead of for the capital. But sadly, that is both unlikely (because the capital is very good at influencing debate and political parties), and something the angry people are actively against.
While ever more wealth accumulates with the super rich, while the average people have less and less, the people will feel left behind and vote for more stupid shit.
One would hope that the owner class would recognize that if stuff goes too crazy, that may lead to a guillotine situation, and maybe sharing some of their wealth to keep the system they are profiting from so greatly running would be a good idea, but that seems unlikely, too.
Romania appears to have an older model where the leftist option is also less progressive so I don't know how much it applies there, but in general they feel that the guillotines are closer when the left is in power, and they're banking on the victims of the anger of the people being immigrants and minorities rather than them.
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On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that.
They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday.
This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people.
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On similiar topic - Polish presidential elections will be held in may 2025 and they are also looking to be very volatile. PiS doesn't really have a frontrunner and their candidate is a real no-name in polish politics. KO candidate is major of Warsaw, who isn't very well liked and has this "Hillary Clinton/Kamal Harris vibe" of being pushed up despite better candidates being around. A third party winner is a real possibility (at least looking at things right now,..).
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Zurich15306 Posts
On November 25 2024 21:18 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that. They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday. This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people.
The crazy part is that in many countries, there is no failure. Most Western countries are doing well all things considered. People are better off than they were 20 years ago.
Then if you look at countries like Poland, it becomes almost absurd. Here PiS can campaign on "Poland in shatters" after the country went though an unprecedented 30 years of growth and prosperity.
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On November 25 2024 21:37 zatic wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 21:18 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that. They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday. This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people. The crazy part is that in many countries, there is no failure. Most Western countries are doing well all things considered. People are better off than they were 20 years ago. Then if you look at countries like Poland, it becomes almost absurd. Here PiS can campaign on "Poland in shatters" after the country went though an unprecedented 30 years of growth and prosperity. Not in the way people care about.
Food is more expensive, gas is more expensive, houses are just unaffordable. For the first time in history we have generations who are growing up less wealthy then their parents.
Can't be surprised they turn to anyone for a ray of hope.
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On November 25 2024 21:37 zatic wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 21:18 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that. They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday. This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people. The crazy part is that in many countries, there is no failure. Most Western countries are doing well all things considered. People are better off than they were 20 years ago. Then if you look at countries like Poland, it becomes almost absurd. Here PiS can campaign on "Poland in shatters" after the country went though an unprecedented 30 years of growth and prosperity.
Unprecedented growth and prosperity can often land on a very small group of people while others don't see any benefits.
www.eapn.eu/poverty-watch-poland-2023/
The number of Poles living in extreme poverty is still huge – 1.8 million, and more than 4.5 million were living in a situation of relative poverty.
The number of children in extreme poverty increased by around 26 000 to 396 000 compared to 371 000 in 2021 (an increase from 5.3 to 5.7%). If it were to be less than 1%, which should be the government’s target, this figure should be no higher than 69,000. To achieve this, the extent of extreme child poverty would have to decrease by as much as 83%.
The number of seniors in extreme poverty increased by around 14,000 – from 272,000 in 2021 to 287,000 in 2022 (an increase from 3.8 to 3.9%).
Energy poverty has been officially defined in Poland, but data on it are published with a long delay. For 2022, we know only one rate of inability to adequately heat a flat or house, rising from 3.2% to 4.9% which means 1.8 million people.
Projections for 2023 are negative. The recorded percentage expressing fear of poverty in 2023 is the highest since 2015 and was as high as 30%. Total poverty, extreme poverty of children, seniors and people with disabilities will increase mainly due to the difficult economic situation, high inflation, the lack of one-off protective allowances form 2022 and the lack of child benefits indexation.
In 2024, poverty may stabilise due to an improving economy, reduced inflation, a still good labour market situation and an increase in universal child benefit (500+) by 200 PLN.
This is precisely what I'm talking about when I say the 'sensible' governments aren't working for people.
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On November 25 2024 21:48 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 21:37 zatic wrote:On November 25 2024 21:18 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that. They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday. This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people. The crazy part is that in many countries, there is no failure. Most Western countries are doing well all things considered. People are better off than they were 20 years ago. Then if you look at countries like Poland, it becomes almost absurd. Here PiS can campaign on "Poland in shatters" after the country went though an unprecedented 30 years of growth and prosperity. Unprecedented growth and prosperity can often land on a very small group of people while others don't see any benefits. www.eapn.eu/poverty-watch-poland-2023/Show nested quote +The number of Poles living in extreme poverty is still huge – 1.8 million, and more than 4.5 million were living in a situation of relative poverty.
The number of children in extreme poverty increased by around 26 000 to 396 000 compared to 371 000 in 2021 (an increase from 5.3 to 5.7%). If it were to be less than 1%, which should be the government’s target, this figure should be no higher than 69,000. To achieve this, the extent of extreme child poverty would have to decrease by as much as 83%.
The number of seniors in extreme poverty increased by around 14,000 – from 272,000 in 2021 to 287,000 in 2022 (an increase from 3.8 to 3.9%).
Energy poverty has been officially defined in Poland, but data on it are published with a long delay. For 2022, we know only one rate of inability to adequately heat a flat or house, rising from 3.2% to 4.9% which means 1.8 million people.
Projections for 2023 are negative. The recorded percentage expressing fear of poverty in 2023 is the highest since 2015 and was as high as 30%. Total poverty, extreme poverty of children, seniors and people with disabilities will increase mainly due to the difficult economic situation, high inflation, the lack of one-off protective allowances form 2022 and the lack of child benefits indexation.
In 2024, poverty may stabilise due to an improving economy, reduced inflation, a still good labour market situation and an increase in universal child benefit (500+) by 200 PLN. This is precisely what I'm talking about when I say the 'sensible' governments aren't working for people. In 2024, poverty may stabilise due to ... reduced inflation, Oh boy, yeah about that...
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The living expanses in Poland really exploded in recent years. There are few reasons:
- very high inflation during 2021-2023
- rising energy prices ( Ukraine war, carbon taxes etc.)
- housing market went bonkers after people started making decent money and realized that best invetment is buying flats and renting them. Prices skyrocketed. Some people became milioners almost by accident. A plot of land on edge of city worth nothing in 2000 can now be worth multiple milions... And when government tried to easy situation by offering free credit this drived prices even more, because developers said - Now, that You have free credit surly You can pay more!
-food prices are several times what they were in 2020
-really high rises in minimal wage creating additional inflationary preassure in recent years
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On November 25 2024 21:18 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that. They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday. This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people.
I understand that this is the left-wing narrative right now, but I have to strongly disagree. Right-wing parties make things worse for people over and over again, and then left-wing parties have to clean up their mess. Rinse and repeat. The voting populace gets the impression that nothing ever changes. Yes, of course it doesn't. Stop voting right-wing and things can finally change. No, instead more people vote right-wing out of frustration. And that is going to make things even worse, and the race to the bottom continues.
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Any more info on the candidate who'll compete with the real real fascist in Romania? Is the vote going to be more about the left-right culture war or more about establishment vs anti-establishment camps?
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On November 25 2024 22:36 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 21:18 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that. They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday. This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people. I understand that this is the left-wing narrative right now, but I have to strongly disagree. Right-wing parties make things worse for people over and over again, and then left-wing parties have to clean up their mess. Rinse and repeat. The voting populace gets the impression that nothing ever changes. Yes, of course it doesn't. Stop voting right-wing and things can finally change. No, instead more people vote right-wing out of frustration. And that is going to make things even worse, and the race to the bottom continues.
You're right, but also this is always going to happen. When people are frustrated with one of the main options and there is another main option available to them, they're going to pick the other main option, that's just how it always works. To think that we're going to be able to circumvent that is to give a lot of political acumen to a lot of people who don't really follow politics much.
That's why it is strategically clever for neoliberals to ensure the two main options are both options that they're comfortable with.
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On November 25 2024 21:37 zatic wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 21:18 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that. They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday. This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people. The crazy part is that in many countries, there is no failure. Most Western countries are doing well all things considered. People are better off than they were 20 years ago. Then if you look at countries like Poland, it becomes almost absurd. Here PiS can campaign on "Poland in shatters" after the country went though an unprecedented 30 years of growth and prosperity.
I don't know what metric you're using to argue people are better off nowadays. GDP? GDP per capita? If so, these don't mean anything for the lower classes, they can only describe an overall nation's wealth. In an unequal economy, the super wealthy drive up GDP artificially. The excess money will rarely end up in the working class.
Note that I'm by no means for full socialism. A balanced amount of capitalism isn't a problem in and of itself, it's that the top 1% are gaming the system in unseen ways, and the governments are at the same time unwilling and incapable of doing anything meaningful about it. They're constantly afraid of a wealth exodus.
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Northern Ireland23052 Posts
On November 25 2024 21:44 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 21:37 zatic wrote:On November 25 2024 21:18 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that. They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday. This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people. The crazy part is that in many countries, there is no failure. Most Western countries are doing well all things considered. People are better off than they were 20 years ago. Then if you look at countries like Poland, it becomes almost absurd. Here PiS can campaign on "Poland in shatters" after the country went though an unprecedented 30 years of growth and prosperity. Not in the way people care about. Food is more expensive, gas is more expensive, houses are just unaffordable. For the first time in history we have generations who are growing up less wealthy then their parents. Can't be surprised they turn to anyone for a ray of hope.
Folks seem to simultaneously have a lack of realism, and a lack of aspiration.
It’s quite curious, but people discard potential solutions to problems as not realistic, and gravitate to unrealistic solutions to unrealistic expectations.
For example, people want all the benefits of a global free market, but to always be the winner in that. Which isn’t realistic, nor a problem with a solution within that paradigm.
Housing is fundamentally a conflict in diametrically opposed incentives between those who own property and those who don’t. There’s a reason that at least personally I’ve never seen any country with any kind of conventional market-based property arrangement that bucks this trend of spiralling prices outstripping wages globally.
No government can fix that problem within parameters that the wider populace would deem acceptable. They just can’t, doesn’t stop folks from expecting them too while not doing anything radical. Some can mitigate it better than others of course.
Incidentally if anyone has such an example I’d be interested in hearing about.
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Northern Ireland23052 Posts
On November 25 2024 22:52 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 21:37 zatic wrote:On November 25 2024 21:18 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that. They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday. This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people. The crazy part is that in many countries, there is no failure. Most Western countries are doing well all things considered. People are better off than they were 20 years ago. Then if you look at countries like Poland, it becomes almost absurd. Here PiS can campaign on "Poland in shatters" after the country went though an unprecedented 30 years of growth and prosperity. I don't know what metric you're using to argue people are better off nowadays. GDP? GDP per capita? If so, these don't mean anything for the lower classes, they can only describe an overall nation's wealth. In an unequal economy, the super wealthy drive up GDP artificially. The excess money will rarely end up in the working class. Note that I'm by no means for full socialism. A balanced amount of capitalism isn't a problem in and of itself, it's that the top 1% are gaming the system in unseen ways, and the governments are at the same time unwilling and incapable of doing anything meaningful about it. They're constantly afraid of a wealth exodus.
Aye I don’t even think most people who identify as socialists are actual advocate full-blown socialism in the here and now. They may have such an aspiration long term but view a more socialised capitalism as a necessary transitory step.
A more vibrant union culture (I know this varies by nation), a rebalancing between shareholder and worker enfranchisement in corporate structures, public ownership of utilities and transport infrastructure, a more radical approach to housing that emphasises the whole ‘place to live’ element versus profit in the property market.
I mean you can still maintain many of the benefits in innovation thru competition in a market economy elsewhere while doing all of those things.
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