|
Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
On November 25 2024 21:08 Simberto wrote:
Governments would need to do stuff for the people instead of for the capital. But sadly, that is both unlikely (because the capital is very good at influencing debate and political parties), and something the angry people are actively against.
While ever more wealth accumulates with the super rich, while the average people have less and less, the people will feel left behind and vote for more stupid shit.
One would hope that the owner class would recognize that if stuff goes too crazy, that may lead to a guillotine situation, and maybe sharing some of their wealth to keep the system they are profiting from so greatly running would be a good idea, but that seems unlikely, too.
Romania appears to have an older model where the leftist option is also less progressive so I don't know how much it applies there, but in general they feel that the guillotines are closer when the left is in power, and they're banking on the victims of the anger of the people being immigrants and minorities rather than them.
|
On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that.
They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday.
This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people.
|
On similiar topic - Polish presidential elections will be held in may 2025 and they are also looking to be very volatile. PiS doesn't really have a frontrunner and their candidate is a real no-name in polish politics. KO candidate is major of Warsaw, who isn't very well liked and has this "Hillary Clinton/Kamal Harris vibe" of being pushed up despite better candidates being around. A third party winner is a real possibility (at least looking at things right now,..).
|
Zurich15306 Posts
On November 25 2024 21:18 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that. They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday. This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people.
The crazy part is that in many countries, there is no failure. Most Western countries are doing well all things considered. People are better off than they were 20 years ago.
Then if you look at countries like Poland, it becomes almost absurd. Here PiS can campaign on "Poland in shatters" after the country went though an unprecedented 30 years of growth and prosperity.
|
On November 25 2024 21:37 zatic wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 21:18 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that. They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday. This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people. The crazy part is that in many countries, there is no failure. Most Western countries are doing well all things considered. People are better off than they were 20 years ago. Then if you look at countries like Poland, it becomes almost absurd. Here PiS can campaign on "Poland in shatters" after the country went though an unprecedented 30 years of growth and prosperity. Not in the way people care about.
Food is more expensive, gas is more expensive, houses are just unaffordable. For the first time in history we have generations who are growing up less wealthy then their parents.
Can't be surprised they turn to anyone for a ray of hope.
|
On November 25 2024 21:37 zatic wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 21:18 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that. They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday. This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people. The crazy part is that in many countries, there is no failure. Most Western countries are doing well all things considered. People are better off than they were 20 years ago. Then if you look at countries like Poland, it becomes almost absurd. Here PiS can campaign on "Poland in shatters" after the country went though an unprecedented 30 years of growth and prosperity.
Unprecedented growth and prosperity can often land on a very small group of people while others don't see any benefits.
www.eapn.eu/poverty-watch-poland-2023/
The number of Poles living in extreme poverty is still huge – 1.8 million, and more than 4.5 million were living in a situation of relative poverty.
The number of children in extreme poverty increased by around 26 000 to 396 000 compared to 371 000 in 2021 (an increase from 5.3 to 5.7%). If it were to be less than 1%, which should be the government’s target, this figure should be no higher than 69,000. To achieve this, the extent of extreme child poverty would have to decrease by as much as 83%.
The number of seniors in extreme poverty increased by around 14,000 – from 272,000 in 2021 to 287,000 in 2022 (an increase from 3.8 to 3.9%).
Energy poverty has been officially defined in Poland, but data on it are published with a long delay. For 2022, we know only one rate of inability to adequately heat a flat or house, rising from 3.2% to 4.9% which means 1.8 million people.
Projections for 2023 are negative. The recorded percentage expressing fear of poverty in 2023 is the highest since 2015 and was as high as 30%. Total poverty, extreme poverty of children, seniors and people with disabilities will increase mainly due to the difficult economic situation, high inflation, the lack of one-off protective allowances form 2022 and the lack of child benefits indexation.
In 2024, poverty may stabilise due to an improving economy, reduced inflation, a still good labour market situation and an increase in universal child benefit (500+) by 200 PLN.
This is precisely what I'm talking about when I say the 'sensible' governments aren't working for people.
|
On November 25 2024 21:48 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 21:37 zatic wrote:On November 25 2024 21:18 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that. They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday. This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people. The crazy part is that in many countries, there is no failure. Most Western countries are doing well all things considered. People are better off than they were 20 years ago. Then if you look at countries like Poland, it becomes almost absurd. Here PiS can campaign on "Poland in shatters" after the country went though an unprecedented 30 years of growth and prosperity. Unprecedented growth and prosperity can often land on a very small group of people while others don't see any benefits. www.eapn.eu/poverty-watch-poland-2023/Show nested quote +The number of Poles living in extreme poverty is still huge – 1.8 million, and more than 4.5 million were living in a situation of relative poverty.
The number of children in extreme poverty increased by around 26 000 to 396 000 compared to 371 000 in 2021 (an increase from 5.3 to 5.7%). If it were to be less than 1%, which should be the government’s target, this figure should be no higher than 69,000. To achieve this, the extent of extreme child poverty would have to decrease by as much as 83%.
The number of seniors in extreme poverty increased by around 14,000 – from 272,000 in 2021 to 287,000 in 2022 (an increase from 3.8 to 3.9%).
Energy poverty has been officially defined in Poland, but data on it are published with a long delay. For 2022, we know only one rate of inability to adequately heat a flat or house, rising from 3.2% to 4.9% which means 1.8 million people.
Projections for 2023 are negative. The recorded percentage expressing fear of poverty in 2023 is the highest since 2015 and was as high as 30%. Total poverty, extreme poverty of children, seniors and people with disabilities will increase mainly due to the difficult economic situation, high inflation, the lack of one-off protective allowances form 2022 and the lack of child benefits indexation.
In 2024, poverty may stabilise due to an improving economy, reduced inflation, a still good labour market situation and an increase in universal child benefit (500+) by 200 PLN. This is precisely what I'm talking about when I say the 'sensible' governments aren't working for people. In 2024, poverty may stabilise due to ... reduced inflation, Oh boy, yeah about that...
|
The living expanses in Poland really exploded in recent years. There are few reasons:
- very high inflation during 2021-2023
- rising energy prices ( Ukraine war, carbon taxes etc.)
- housing market went bonkers after people started making decent money and realized that best invetment is buying flats and renting them. Prices skyrocketed. Some people became milioners almost by accident. A plot of land on edge of city worth nothing in 2000 can now be worth multiple milions... And when government tried to easy situation by offering free credit this drived prices even more, because developers said - Now, that You have free credit surly You can pay more!
-food prices are several times what they were in 2020
-really high rises in minimal wage creating additional inflationary preassure in recent years
|
On November 25 2024 21:18 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that. They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday. This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people.
I understand that this is the left-wing narrative right now, but I have to strongly disagree. Right-wing parties make things worse for people over and over again, and then left-wing parties have to clean up their mess. Rinse and repeat. The voting populace gets the impression that nothing ever changes. Yes, of course it doesn't. Stop voting right-wing and things can finally change. No, instead more people vote right-wing out of frustration. And that is going to make things even worse, and the race to the bottom continues.
|
Any more info on the candidate who'll compete with the real real fascist in Romania? Is the vote going to be more about the left-right culture war or more about establishment vs anti-establishment camps?
|
On November 25 2024 22:36 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 21:18 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that. They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday. This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people. I understand that this is the left-wing narrative right now, but I have to strongly disagree. Right-wing parties make things worse for people over and over again, and then left-wing parties have to clean up their mess. Rinse and repeat. The voting populace gets the impression that nothing ever changes. Yes, of course it doesn't. Stop voting right-wing and things can finally change. No, instead more people vote right-wing out of frustration. And that is going to make things even worse, and the race to the bottom continues.
You're right, but also this is always going to happen. When people are frustrated with one of the main options and there is another main option available to them, they're going to pick the other main option, that's just how it always works. To think that we're going to be able to circumvent that is to give a lot of political acumen to a lot of people who don't really follow politics much.
That's why it is strategically clever for neoliberals to ensure the two main options are both options that they're comfortable with.
|
On November 25 2024 21:37 zatic wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 21:18 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that. They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday. This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people. The crazy part is that in many countries, there is no failure. Most Western countries are doing well all things considered. People are better off than they were 20 years ago. Then if you look at countries like Poland, it becomes almost absurd. Here PiS can campaign on "Poland in shatters" after the country went though an unprecedented 30 years of growth and prosperity.
I don't know what metric you're using to argue people are better off nowadays. GDP? GDP per capita? If so, these don't mean anything for the lower classes, they can only describe an overall nation's wealth. In an unequal economy, the super wealthy drive up GDP artificially. The excess money will rarely end up in the working class.
Note that I'm by no means for full socialism. A balanced amount of capitalism isn't a problem in and of itself, it's that the top 1% are gaming the system in unseen ways, and the governments are at the same time unwilling and incapable of doing anything meaningful about it. They're constantly afraid of a wealth exodus.
|
Northern Ireland23085 Posts
On November 25 2024 21:44 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 21:37 zatic wrote:On November 25 2024 21:18 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that. They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday. This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people. The crazy part is that in many countries, there is no failure. Most Western countries are doing well all things considered. People are better off than they were 20 years ago. Then if you look at countries like Poland, it becomes almost absurd. Here PiS can campaign on "Poland in shatters" after the country went though an unprecedented 30 years of growth and prosperity. Not in the way people care about. Food is more expensive, gas is more expensive, houses are just unaffordable. For the first time in history we have generations who are growing up less wealthy then their parents. Can't be surprised they turn to anyone for a ray of hope.
Folks seem to simultaneously have a lack of realism, and a lack of aspiration.
It’s quite curious, but people discard potential solutions to problems as not realistic, and gravitate to unrealistic solutions to unrealistic expectations.
For example, people want all the benefits of a global free market, but to always be the winner in that. Which isn’t realistic, nor a problem with a solution within that paradigm.
Housing is fundamentally a conflict in diametrically opposed incentives between those who own property and those who don’t. There’s a reason that at least personally I’ve never seen any country with any kind of conventional market-based property arrangement that bucks this trend of spiralling prices outstripping wages globally.
No government can fix that problem within parameters that the wider populace would deem acceptable. They just can’t, doesn’t stop folks from expecting them too while not doing anything radical. Some can mitigate it better than others of course.
Incidentally if anyone has such an example I’d be interested in hearing about.
|
Northern Ireland23085 Posts
On November 25 2024 22:52 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2024 21:37 zatic wrote:On November 25 2024 21:18 Gorsameth wrote:On November 25 2024 20:55 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 25 2024 20:49 Dan HH wrote:
We had our 1st round of presidential elections yesterday and it was the strangest election I've ever witnessed anywhere. A virtually anonymous fascist with no campaign outside of social media and polling at less than 5% a month before the election won with 23%, while the current prime-minister and big favorite finished 3rd and missed the run-off by 2k votes in a reverse-sweep (he had a 400k vote lead at midnight over the candidate that finished 2nd but the votes from the largest cities where he does poorly were added last).
I should point out I didn't use fascist in the "person I disagree with" sense but in the openly admires fascism and fascist historical figures sense. You might be thinking "fraud?" - the answer is no, the two largest parties have the most resources and observers in every voting precinct and they're the big losers here as both their candidates missed the run-off. The winner doesn't even have a party or staff on the ground, his entire logistical operation consists of some Tiktok bots and a few hundred volunteers.
I'm optimistic for the 2nd round because the people that voted this guy don't seem to know what they voted for and once he's in the spotlight he loses the advantage that anonymity brings in an unpopular line-up of choices.
We're bickering over policy minutiae here in our quaint politics bubble and debating what Kamala's campaign did wrong, meanwhile there's millions of people out there voting for someone just because of spam under the funny cat videos they're watching.
I can go into more detail after work if there's interest. I think there's an almost universal sense at the moment that the political systems across the world that have been ticking over for the last 30 years or so aren't working for people any more. People are voting for insane, wild shit because the sensible, reasonable guys have let everyone down... really really badly. I don't know if there's anything that can be done about it. It feels to me like even if a sensible government does get elected - pretty much anywhere, they are on borrowed time. exactly. The world is going backwards for the non-rich and people are lashing out in whatever direction they can. Voters don't want realistic stories about how a party is going to make things slightly less bad but probably not even that because global economy and all that. They want drastic measures and they wanted them yesterday. This isn't about left or right, progressive or conservative. All of them have failed people. The crazy part is that in many countries, there is no failure. Most Western countries are doing well all things considered. People are better off than they were 20 years ago. Then if you look at countries like Poland, it becomes almost absurd. Here PiS can campaign on "Poland in shatters" after the country went though an unprecedented 30 years of growth and prosperity. I don't know what metric you're using to argue people are better off nowadays. GDP? GDP per capita? If so, these don't mean anything for the lower classes, they can only describe an overall nation's wealth. In an unequal economy, the super wealthy drive up GDP artificially. The excess money will rarely end up in the working class. Note that I'm by no means for full socialism. A balanced amount of capitalism isn't a problem in and of itself, it's that the top 1% are gaming the system in unseen ways, and the governments are at the same time unwilling and incapable of doing anything meaningful about it. They're constantly afraid of a wealth exodus.
Aye I don’t even think most people who identify as socialists are actual advocate full-blown socialism in the here and now. They may have such an aspiration long term but view a more socialised capitalism as a necessary transitory step.
A more vibrant union culture (I know this varies by nation), a rebalancing between shareholder and worker enfranchisement in corporate structures, public ownership of utilities and transport infrastructure, a more radical approach to housing that emphasises the whole ‘place to live’ element versus profit in the property market.
I mean you can still maintain many of the benefits in innovation thru competition in a market economy elsewhere while doing all of those things.
|
It will be difficult to get into this without writing a novel but I'll try. These are the main relevant parties:
PSD - Nominally social dems, in practice the conservative choice. They are the largest party and tend to get a plurality of votes but at the same time they are the most hated party which makes run-off elections their kryptonite. In the previous 4 presidential elections their candidate always got in the 2nd round and always lost there.
PNL - Nominally liberal, 2nd largest party and traditionally the nemesis of PSD. They fell off a cliff in recent years, partly because they made a coalition with PSD (which their voters hate) and partly because the current president handed off the leadership of the party to a military man with negative charisma.
AUR - The mainstream far-right party and what was supposed to be the main danger coming into these elections. They were insignificant until 4 years ago when they made a big splash in the European parliament elections, but struggled to maintain momentum afterwards due to internal fracturing.
USR - Eclectic reformist center-right party flirting with technocracy, this is where most of the young and educated votes go. They tend to win in the largest several cities but get very poor results outside of them. Also mired by fracturing and splits.
SOS - The other far-right party, this is a splinter from AUR led by an MTG-type loudmouth. She enjoys some popularity (~10%) but it's basically a one-woman party. Some of you Europeans may have seen her in the news making a ruckus in the European parliament.
--
A few months before the election these were the candidates with realistic chances to win:
Marcel Ciolacu - Current prime-minister and leader of PSD. Mostly focused on the old and rural votes, raised pensions with future money that we're expecting to be recouped by a VAT raise after the elections.
George Simion - Leader of AUR and former football hooligan. Banned in Ukraine and Moldova for his pro-Russian stances and unionist activism in Moldova. Tried bizarre populism schemes such as having people sign non-enforcible "contracts" for 35k Euro houses that he pinky promises he will build for them if he wins even though it has nothing to do with the president's office.
Elena Lasconi - Mayor of a small city and former news host, leader of USR only since this summer when the very poor results at the European parliament elections made them change guard. A very strange fit in the supposedly technocrat sort-of-progressive party. Wears a giant cross over her shirt and doesn't have any specialized knowledge, can hardly talk about foreign politics beyond "West good" despite that being one of the president's key responsibilities.
Mircea Geoana - Independent candidate, former PSD leader that lost the presidency by a hair in 2009. He was Jens Stoltenberg's deputy at NATO for the past 5 years. Had a better image than the current crop of leaders but quite a bit of baggage.
--
Geoana started with a sizeable lead in polls but very quickly tanked once he started campaigning. You'll notice a trend here, his lead was precisely because he was absent from internal politics for the previous years, as soon as he showed his face and started talking again people ditched the nostalgia and he dropped to 2nd-4th.
This left Ciolacu well in the lead and the only question between August and election day was who he's gonna be up against in the 2nd round. Remember how I said PSD struggle with run-offs? Before all those defeats, the last time their candidate won the presidency was in 2000 when their man was up against a nationalist cuckoo that was ahead of his time. Ciolacu's prospects didn't look good in a run-off against Lasconi or Geoana but he was expected to beat Simion due to the large overlap between the anti-PSD crowd and the anti-AUR crowd.
Something unexpected happened at this point, out of nowhere the Constitutional Court blocked the candidacy of SOS leader Diana Sosoaca with a very weak argument. They claimed candidates have to abide to the oath of the president even before being sworn-in and Sosoaca made anti-constitutional statements. The issue is that the oath very clearly uses the future tense and not the past tense. This was seen as PSD using the Constitutional Court politically to help Simion reach the 2nd round with Ciolacu by absorbing the far-right votes of the now banned Sosoaca.
And it looked like it worked, heading towards the election day Simion was very slightly favored to finish 2nd over Lasconi. But he made some mistakes of his own, he started getting worried that he reached a ceiling by acting like a baboon and toned down his discourse magically becoming a lot more moderate in the couple of weeks before the election. In hindsight, this backfired.
Now the eventual winner enters the scene, Calin Georgescu. He's also a former member of AUR but a very obscure one compared to Simion or Sosoaca. Half the country had not heard of him until yesterday, he entered the race late and had no billboards, no boots on the ground, wasn't in any of the debates or TV shows - completely invisible outside of his Tiktok corner and the Facebook and Whatsapp groups of his followers.
But he benefitted a lot from both PSD's and Simion's mistakes. The banned Sosoaca directed her votes to him rather than to Simion, and Simion toning down his rhetoric made some of his intended voters look for a "true patriot" instead.
Georgescu has a very different style than the other two, he's more Jordan Peterson than Donald Trump. He waxes poetic and has the image of an intellectual of the people. He endlessly quotes olden poets and thinkers and cites historical events. He usually does it to support an argument that the quote doesn't actually support or fit into, but those are details that your average person doesn't catch on to.
He says some pure nonsense such as that Latin and other European languages are derived from Proto-Romanian but he does it in a way that evokes "this guy knows his shit" to simpletons that want to belive they're from a special mystical nation.
The content of his political beliefs is the usual anti-degenerate west spiel, it's the delivery that makes him more dangerous than the aggressive right wingers. He has that suicide cult leader magnetism. As usual, the biggest anti-degenerate west vote come from exactly there.
A month before the election he was polling at 5%, two days before the election he was polling at 10%, exit-polls had him as a giant surprise with 16% and close to 2nd place, and his final tally was 1st place with 23%. I have not seen anything like this before, my explanation is that this was a historically weak line-up of candidates which left a lot of people open to changing their vote in the 11th hour.
His core supporters had a large supply of short clips of him talking nicely about the country and about dignity and independence and yadda yadda which they could show to their friends/relatives/whatsapp groups when the subject of electoral disappointment inevitably came up. They didn't get to see the skeletons in his closet, just the flowery bite sized clips. All eyes will be on him now though.
As the openly pro-Putin candidate and the Tiktok candidate, it's very likely he received some external support in this sense. I've seen some material in this regard, but I don't want to overstate its influence. This can be done without Russia, the metagame has irreversibly changed.
|
On November 25 2024 22:42 Sent. wrote:
Any more info on the candidate who'll compete with the real real fascist in Romania? Is the vote going to be more about the left-right culture war or more about establishment vs anti-establishment camps?
That would be Elena Lasconi. She's not exactly a shining candidate, the perception about her coming into the 1st round was that she's not qualified for the role but that she's the most honest of the bunch. She's staunchly pro-EU and pro-Ukraine.
The party she's running for (USR) is also anti-establishment, they run on anti-corruption and major reforms to state institutions.
Though Georgescu's flavor of anti-establishment also considers things like medicine and math and women's rights to be "the establishment", so in a way I guess it can be described as establishment vs anti-establishment.
There is a culture war aspect but it's kinda manufactured, no party here is socially progressive in a western sense though that doesn't stop the far-right from being paranoid about us becoming degenerates. It's not super useful politically since they don't have actual "woke" policies to point towards.
From what I'm seeing today things are looking good, Georgescu is getting battered on all fronts. It's obvious he never expected to get this far so there's a whole treasure cove of videos of his insane statements that can be easily exploited and that are making the rounds all over the place right now. I'm expecting a historic beat-down in the run-off but these days you never really know for sure.
|
Thanks Dan. Writing a novel is useful when most of us know very little about Romanian politics.
Inequality as an explanation for the rise of (mostly but not exclusively right wing) populism seems more like a leftist reflex than reality. We're seeing the same all over the place including in countries where inequality went down.
|
thank you Dan. much appreciated.
May be the dissection (not sure if that is the correct word) should not be left vs right, but establishment vs anti-establishment.
Not sure how true that analysis is, but I have listen to an analysis of the french election that held in July if I remember correctly. The analyst said that the far left had more common in policy with the far right than the center. At the time, I find it interesting, then I heard someone said something approximately that to the point that the far left policy is the same as the far right without racism. So, the tradition left-right classification might not be very suitable / accurate to describe the political party now. We might need a new set of terminology? May be establishment vs anti-establishment be good enough?
As for voter voting "crazy" people, I don't blame them even though I would hesitant to do that myself. I think I would at least try to acknowledge the frustration (rightly or wrongly) of the people.
Interestingly, what zatic said looks at lot like the argument in the old vs young divide.
to zatic, please don't get me wrong, I absolutely am not trying to imply that you are old XD.
|
The problem with the framing of establishment vs anti-establishment is that rightwing populists aren't populists, they're on the side of the establishment as well and they're lying about where they stand in order to get elected. Trump can say he wants to drain the swamp all he wants, when he gets in power he'll mainly just give tax cuts to the rich and attack minorities, not change the american established system (at least that's what the establishment perceives, there's of course a chance that they are wrong and he turns the system into fascism, but fascism isn't populist either obviously).
I feel like descriptive words should portray reality accurately, and that's why I would like to stick to the left vs right as it answers in a simple way the most direct question of politics: what do you want to do with regard to the social hierarchies of society? => I want to destroy (far left) or limit their influence (centre left), I want to maintain them as they are (centre right) or increase their influence (far right).
|
Northern Ireland23085 Posts
Excellent writeup Dan! Of course I’m extremely au fait with Romanian politics already but I’m sure other folks will find it useful :p
How socially conservative/liberal is Romania more generally? Are there big geographic discrepancies there within the country?
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
