EPTEuropean Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 1390
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12381 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States23594 Posts
Doesn't seem like Europeans have given any thought to how far they would let Trump go before drawing some sort of red line for themselves when they would demand their government do something. Doesn't seem like there's some obvious redline for their governments either. Could end up with Trump and Putin forcing a peace negotiation in Ukraine and make a deal with European right wing parties that they can get credit for the windfall of the dropping of sanctions and rebuilding/modernizing what's left of Ukraine. I suppose that would be more provocative to Europeans than any crime against humanity Trump could commit domestically? | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18198 Posts
On October 13 2024 06:49 GreenHorizons wrote: For clarity, I was talking about my original inquiry: How fascist can the US get before Europeans demand their politicians cut off relations/start sanctions/etc? Doesn't seem like Europeans have given any thought to how far they would let Trump go before drawing some sort of red line for themselves when they would demand their government do something. Doesn't seem like there's some obvious redline for their governments either. Could end up with Trump and Putin forcing a peace negotiation in Ukraine and make a deal with European right wing parties that they can get credit for the windfall of the dropping of sanctions and rebuilding/modernizing what's left of Ukraine. I suppose that would be more provocative to Europeans than any crime against humanity Trump could commit domestically? Why do we have to entertain what-ifs? If Trump is elected and if he tries to force a peace negotiation and if my government doesn't respond in an adequate way, then is the time to act. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23594 Posts
On October 13 2024 07:07 Acrofales wrote: Why do we have to entertain what-ifs? If Trump is elected and if he tries to force a peace negotiation and if my government doesn't respond in an adequate way, then is the time to act. I mean, that's how planning works? Pondering reasonably likely scenarios and thinking through them as to consider various potential outcomes and ways to influence them. As opposed to reacting in the moment, perhaps emotionally, and/or with less information and consideration for possible consequences. Just for all the hype about being an election for democracy, Trump-Putin, etc... no one actually seems that concerned. If Trump's VP is right and Trump is the US's Hitler (or close enough/his harbinger), it sure doesn't sound like Europe is up to the task of doing anything about it and is just going to go along for the ride. | ||
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Dan HH
Romania9156 Posts
On October 13 2024 07:48 GreenHorizons wrote: I mean, that's how planning works? Pondering reasonably likely scenarios and thinking through them as to consider various potential outcomes and ways to influence them. As opposed to reacting in the moment, perhaps emotionally, and/or with less information and consideration for possible consequences. Just for all the hype about being an election for democracy, Trump-Putin, etc... no one actually seems that concerned. If Trump's VP is right and Trump is the US's Hitler (or close enough/his harbinger), it sure doesn't sound like Europe is up to the task of doing anything about it and is just going to go along for the ride. "Reacting emotionally in the moment" right now would be to pre-emptively antagonize Trump for lines he didn't cross. "Considering potential outcomes and ways to influence them" would be to talk to Trump and try to reason cordially with him, which is what Zelensky has done. It "seems" that he isn't that concerned because he's playing the game correctly. Same goes for everyone else. Not burning bridges is a higher priority than their concerns and plans becoming visible to you. Even if attempting to reason with him turns out being useless, the alternative of trying to influence the election has higher odds of backfiring than helping. But you got your answer in the very first reply by Gorsameth, just look at Europe's relations with China. The Trump worst case scenario is basically the US becoming China-light in terms of democracy and international alignment, so why would you expect more to be done about Walmart China than what is being done about China? | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23594 Posts
On October 13 2024 10:28 Dan HH wrote: China receives a fair amount of sanctions and condemnations from Europe. There's an Arms Embargo against China for example. "Reacting emotionally in the moment" right now would be to pre-emptively antagonize Trump for lines he didn't cross. "Considering potential outcomes and ways to influence them" would be to talk to Trump and try to reason cordially with him, which is what Zelensky has done. It "seems" that he isn't that concerned because he's playing the game correctly. Same goes for everyone else. Not burning bridges is a higher priority than their concerns and plans becoming visible to you. Even if attempting to reason with him turns out being useless, the alternative of trying to influence the election has higher odds of backfiring than helping. But you got your answer in the very first reply by Gorsameth, just look at Europe's relations with China. The Trump worst case scenario is basically the US becoming China-light in terms of democracy and international alignment, so why would you expect more to be done about Walmart China than what is being done about China? So part of my question is at what point would the European posters here call for something like that regarding a fascist US? Seems like Trump could roundup a bunch of "undesirables" into concentration camps and Europeans wouldn't even be demanding such an embargo, let alone something functional. Just affirms my suspicion that Europeans will be of no help should Trump go full blown fascist and start cracking down on political opposition/"undesirables" so long as they can rationalize it with economic pettifogging. | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12381 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States23594 Posts
On October 13 2024 11:29 Nebuchad wrote: Yeah I'm not with you on this one GH, seems a bit contrived. It's only contrived if you think the hype about the US election having democracy on the line and general threat to global stability Trump presents as articulated by his political opposition is also contrived/exaggerated. | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France7953 Posts
If Trump is elected, the best Europeans can do is to try to ride the wave, just like they did last time. Starting to threaten a candidate would be complete insanity. And also a gift to Trump. Imagine how much he would spin that at every meeting. | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12381 Posts
On October 13 2024 11:40 GreenHorizons wrote: It's only contrived if you think the hype about the US election having democracy on the line and general threat to global stability Trump presents as articulated by his political opposition is also contrived/exaggerated. Meh, I don't know about that. Just seems like you're trying very hard to get where you want to get in the conversation. We can't even get Macron to make a leftist government after we vote for a leftist government, so I don't really see a good reason to draw a connexion between what Europeans demand and the politics that Europe will have, and maybe especially not with regards to foreign policy. Most of Europe is also just about as likely to get far right governments as you are. Not expecting much help from Europe should just be the default position. I didn't look at every detail but I don't think it's a large exaggeration to state that democracy might be on the line with Trump, the thing is I just don't think that makes this election very special at all. You win this one, the next guy will be just as bad, and eventually the Dems will lose. "Delay fascism" is not really a slogan I can muster a ton of enthusiasm for. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23594 Posts
On October 13 2024 12:06 Biff The Understudy wrote: Don’t really get it either. I mean it would be a colossal blunder to start telling the world that they won’t work with a potential future president. If Trump is elected, the best Europeans can do is to try to ride the wave, just like they did last time. Starting to threaten a candidate would be complete insanity. And also a gift to Trump. Imagine how much he would spin that at every meeting. I think you guys are really missing the point of the inquiry. It was whether you Europeans here had given any thought to what would be too fascist for you personally. It's abundantly clear at this point that none of you have. I don't think you all are a perfect representation of Europeans generally, but I don't think you're all too aberrational either. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18198 Posts
On October 13 2024 12:16 GreenHorizons wrote: I think you guys are really missing the point of the inquiry. It was whether you Europeans here had given any thought to what would be too fascist for you personally. It's abundantly clear at this point that none of you have. I don't think you all are a perfect representation of Europeans generally, but I don't think you're all too aberrational either. Why do we have to worry about "too fascist America" in advance? We have 0 power to change it. Let's say I look at Trump's plans and say that's too fascist for me. I organize a protest against Trump in front of the US embassy. All of Spain agrees and there's a mass mobilization of millions of people surrounding the American embassy in Madrid and all the consulates in other cities. Eggs get thrown at Apple stores. Trump shrugs and uses the footage in his ads. Because <insert other group> hating him is kinda his whole shtick. But let's say it has an impact and my own government listens. Pedro Sanchez cuts ties with America and sends the embassy packing. Then what? Spain, of course, has its own fascist problem, as does every country in Europe. Pedro Sánchez prematurely cutting ties with the US would just get him ridiculed in parliament. The army would need a giant investment, because half of the equipment is US stuff. That's money the government cannot spend on reforming the housing or labor market, two things they are currently working on. And not doing that angers the coalition parties, making it likely the government will collapse and Spain will have new elections, in which the fascists will gain ground (and the right will probably win). Doing all of that to stand with central American Spanish speakers, who are being thrown in Trump's concentration camps when all GH's nightmares have come true, is when maas protests causing Pedro Sanchez to cut ties with fascist America is probably more useful. Oh, and if you mean at EU level, it's a non-starter. Between Orban, Wilders and Meloni, there's plenty of fascist-loving European leaders that anything remotely anti-Trump is getting vetoed. | ||
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BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States23594 Posts
On October 13 2024 15:28 Acrofales wrote: Why do we have to worry about "too fascist America" in advance? We have 0 power to change it. + Show Spoiler + Let's say I look at Trump's plans and say that's too fascist for me. I organize a protest against Trump in front of the US embassy. All of Spain agrees and there's a mass mobilization of millions of people surrounding the American embassy in Madrid and all the consulates in other cities. Eggs get thrown at Apple stores. Trump shrugs and uses the footage in his ads. Because <insert other group> hating him is kinda his whole shtick. But let's say it has an impact and my own government listens. Pedro Sanchez cuts ties with America and sends the embassy packing. Then what? Spain, of course, has its own fascist problem, as does every country in Europe. Pedro Sánchez prematurely cutting ties with the US would just get him ridiculed in parliament. The army would need a giant investment, because half of the equipment is US stuff. That's money the government cannot spend on reforming the housing or labor market, two things they are currently working on. And not doing that angers the coalition parties, making it likely the government will collapse and Spain will have new elections, in which the fascists will gain ground (and the right will probably win). Doing all of that to stand with central American Spanish speakers, who are being thrown in Trump's concentration camps when all GH's nightmares have come true, is when maas protests causing Pedro Sanchez to cut ties with fascist America is probably more useful. Oh, and if you mean at EU level, it's a non-starter. Between Orban, Wilders and Meloni, there's plenty of fascist-loving European leaders that anything remotely anti-Trump is getting vetoed. Ironically, that's not true (if you believe in US democracy). It's a turnout election and you guys are allowed to phonebank for Harris. In an election that could easily come down to hundreds/thousands of votes, TL Euro libs alone could potentially make enough calls between now and the election to change the outcome. They just don't seem to actually care/feel threatened enough by the notion of Trump winning to expend that level of effort. I don't think that's going to suddenly change if/when Trump starts executing people that insulted him on Twitter or whatever other absurd fascist dictator type shit he could do. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18198 Posts
On October 13 2024 16:20 GreenHorizons wrote: Ironically, that's not true (if you believe in US democracy). It's a turnout election and you guys are allowed to phonebank for Harris. In an election that could easily come down to hundreds/thousands of votes, TL Euro libs alone could potentially make enough calls between now and the election to change the outcome. They just don't seem to actually care/feel threatened enough by the notion of Trump winning to expend that level of effort. I don't think that's going to suddenly change if/when Trump starts executing people that insulted him on Twitter or whatever other absurd fascist dictator type shit he could do. Not sure why that's ironic. But that's something absolutely nobody knows about! That said, I tried to sign up to join on https://events.democrats.org/event/664004/ and was willing to give it a try. However, it told me I need a valid US phone number. So I'm not sure you're right. There's also the issue of English fluency. I am pretty confident that my English is fine and my accent won't be too weird (I speak British English with a slight Dutch accent), I don't know whether a European phoning random people might not have the adverse effect: not many people like to be told what to do and that message goes down even worse when it comes from an "outsider". All the same, I'm sure Harris's team could have a good script for this type of call, and I'll keep trying some other ways to see if I can put in a bit of time doing this "phone banking" thing (which, for the record, just outright doesn't exist over here). E: I found Democrats Abroad, that organizes phone banks abroad (mostly from Sweden, by the looks of it). Unfortunately they say that to participate you need to be a US citizen, so I am not sure you're right in asserting anybody can phone bank. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland26225 Posts
I’d also echo that it think it’s probably unwise to target Trump ahead of the elections. See what happens after, hopefully it’s not that scenario. ‘These liberal Europeans don’t want me to be President and they’ll even interfere with our elections’ is absolute manna from Heaven for Trump to play with, and I don’t think you see an associated boost for Harris. As you say yourself quite frequently, and to which I degree, the idea of the international rules based order frequently falls down when brought into conflict with ‘might means right’, or where huge socioeconomic concerns are involved. I imagine many Europeans share that sentiment as well | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12381 Posts
On October 13 2024 22:09 WombaT wrote: There’s also a certain fatalism, I mean if collective Europe can’t rein in a nation like Israel, what hope the US? Yeah definitely agree with this. The kind of thing that I did as a result of having given thought to the rise of fascism in the US and more generally to the wealth of bad things that are likely to happen in the future is not have kids, make sure that I'm not necessary in any way, and make as few preparations for retirement as I was allowed to. As opposed to, like, phone bank for an election that's not really going to bring much change at all. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23594 Posts
On October 13 2024 18:22 Acrofales wrote: Not sure why that's ironic. But that's something absolutely nobody knows about! That said, I tried to sign up to join on https://events.democrats.org/event/664004/ and was willing to give it a try. However, it told me I need a valid US phone number. So I'm not sure you're right. There's also the issue of English fluency. I am pretty confident that my English is fine and my accent won't be too weird (I speak British English with a slight Dutch accent), I don't know whether a European phoning random people might not have the adverse effect: not many people like to be told what to do and that message goes down even worse when it comes from an "outsider". All the same, I'm sure Harris's team could have a good script for this type of call, and I'll keep trying some other ways to see if I can put in a bit of time doing this "phone banking" thing (which, for the record, just outright doesn't exist over here). E: I found Democrats Abroad, that organizes phone banks abroad (mostly from Sweden, by the looks of it). Unfortunately they say that to participate you need to be a US citizen, so I am not sure you're right in asserting anybody can phone bank. Not sure the Harris campaign is facilitating it itself, but it's certainly a thing. Clinton supporters in 2016 looked pretty hard for a way to stop foreign Sanders supporters from participating to no avail. I'd recommend sticking with GOTV type stuff though so you're just talking to Harris supporters to remind/motivate them to vote for the candidate they already support. Pretty low risk. These tips from an old phonebank may be useful: When you register to call with the DNC, you will be asked to submit a US phone number. This number will simply be used for things like reminders, recruitment outreach, etc. If you do not have a US phone number, the phone number they use does not need to be a legitimate phone number! For example, 000-000-0000 would work, so on and so forth, with the caveat that it must be a unique number that is not in use by another caller. www.democratsabroad.org May require a little ingenuity, but it's hellova lot better than having to storm a beach to stop fascism. EDIT: On October 13 2024 22:14 Nebuchad wrote: Yeah definitely agree with this. The kind of thing that I did as a result of having given thought to the rise of fascism in the US and more generally to the wealth of bad things that are likely to happen in the future is not have kids, make sure that I'm not necessary in any way, and make as few preparations for retirement as I was allowed to. As opposed to, like, phone bank for an election that's not really going to bring much change at all. Yeah, this isn't aimed at folks like you or I who recognize the futility of US democracy to address the rise of fascism. It's for the people still suspending disbelief. | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12381 Posts
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KwarK
United States43505 Posts
On October 13 2024 15:46 BlackJack wrote: If you don’t vocalize exactly how tolerant of American fascism you are then how do you expect GH to be able to point out that he’s less tolerant of fascism than you and thus an overall better person. It's baffling that people still entertain this nonsense. Especially given GH is extremely tolerant of fascism and Israel etc. He never does anything about any of it. | ||
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