EPT[T] Dota 2 Mafia - Page 186
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
The wagon jumping D1 implicates him but the day 2 stuff doesn't really. I wasn't there for D1 so I can't really judge that given I'm missing the context. | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain17702 Posts
On October 26 2016 09:03 WaveofShadow wrote: Like I said, depending on HP values and between scum factional KP and abilities this is entirely possible, and I have no reason to believe the both of you didn't eat it tonight. I don't think they're spreading out damage to any real extent. They did enough to kill btdt, and hit me for 50+ damage. If I wasn't awesome, I would be dead. That lines up with their NKs on N1. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On October 26 2016 17:03 Bill Murray wrote: i like exo's ts read a lot why? | ||
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Acrofales
Spain17702 Posts
On October 26 2016 17:03 Bill Murray wrote: i like exo's ts read a lot I think his analysis of D1 voting behavior can be on point. I don't think we should try to read anything in D2 voting behavior. Scum already knew they could no-lynch, so would happily bus their buddy. In addition, the wagons were almost unanimous. I'll reread tubesock D1, but I remember I only really put him in my townpile based on later behavior. | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
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ptmc
Finland306 Posts
On October 26 2016 07:05 Dandel Ion wrote: also Players: 1 Bill Murray 2 Rels replaced by Artanis[Xp] 3 Koshi 4 iamperfection 5 Skynx 6 beentheredonethat 7 Lunaticman 8 HamazuraXTakitsubo 9 Dandel Ion 10 Koroko 11 ExO_ 12 Acrofales 13 Kurumi 14 Hopeless1der 15 Vivax 16 ritoky 17 Tubesock 18 ptmc 19 GlowingBear 20 Lord Tolkien 21 sicklucker 22 WaveofShadow Players: 1 Rels replaced by Artanis[Xp] 2 Koshi 3 iamperfection 4 Skynx 5 Lunaticman 6 ptmc 7 HamazuraXTakitsubo 8 Dandel Ion 9 Koroko 10 ExO_ 11 Acrofales 12 Kurumi 13 Hopeless1der 14 Vivax 15 Bill Murray 16sicklucker 17 ritoky 18 Tubesock 19 GlowingBear 20 WaveofShadow BM -> sicklucker ptmc -> lunatic sl -> vivax seem to be the only movements? I attacked Luna, yes. On October 26 2016 06:37 disformation wrote: Starting Day 3 the following ability becomes available: Track Using his elevated senses of sight and smell, Gondar's hits have quite a good chance of success. Track target player. This can be roleblocked, but not redirected. Cooldown - One phase. I.e. if you use this ability you can't use it the next phase. It becomes available again the phase after the next. Please submit a PM to the main host account as: ##Track: disformation WTH does this even do? On October 26 2016 09:31 iamperfection wrote: has to be cool-down or it be a one off on that shit so it shouldnt matter find out if koshi is lying or kill 2 scum right One-off abilities don't fit doto. On October 26 2016 15:49 ExO_ wrote: The first thing I notice is this. On day 1 we had: + Show Spoiler + On October 22 2016 03:39 disformation wrote: Vote Count - Day 1 Vivax (5): Tubesock, iamperfection, Hopeless1der, Lunaticman (4): ritoky, Koshi, HamazuraXTakitsubo, sicklucker, Koshi (3): Lunaticman, beentheredonethat, Skynx ritoky (2): Holyflare, Kurumi (2): WaveofShadow (1): Dandel Ion (1): Lord Tolkien (1): Kurumi Tictock (1); Vivax Rels (0): ptmc (0): Skynx (0): iamperfection (0): Holyflare (0): beentheredonethat (0): Hopeless1der (0): ExO_ (0): Not voted (4): Tictock, Rels, Eversince, WaveofShadow It looks like Vivax is about to be owned. Day 1 ends in at 21:00 GMT (+00:00) and resolves one hour later, at 22:00 GMT (+00:00). The voting thread is here and only votes in the voting thread will be counted. HF came in and voted TT, and then you have iamp, Tubesock, Dandel, Ritoky all within 5 minutes of each other. This made him the lead wagon at 7 votes, with lunatic man being 2nd closest at 3. Tubesock then bails for Koshi, a few other random votes happen, before BM/Koshi/bndt all come in to seal the deal. On day 2 Vivax was basically a lock, before lunatic started really picking up some steam. TS says some really interesting things in this time period: + Show Spoiler + On October 25 2016 02:48 Tubesock wrote: I don't think Lunatic is mafia. But I don't have any solid reasons. Mostly I didn't like the wagon yesterday. ##Unvote ##Vote: Vivax ##Vote: Skynx On October 25 2016 03:39 Tubesock wrote: I think Luna is town. I won't vote for him. Looking through his filter, I tried to gather his reads. Towns: beentheredonethat 1 of Koshi/Artanis (and only because of dead HF) I think that's it. Scums: HolyFlare Koshi (if not Koshi then Artanis[Xp] and 100% sheep of HF) I don't know Lunaticman. Never played with him. But if he is mafia, is he lunatic enough to tunnel hard on 2 strong willed players? Like right out the gate. He immediately votes Koshi, then still within the first 12 hours or so of the game he starts on HF. And Never leaves either of them the ENTIRE time. He's still on Koshi. Mafia or town, going headstrong on HF kinda means you just may die. Lunaticman attacks and goes after him. He doesn't veer off from them. WHich i think is towny too. I know when I start thinking strongly that someone is mafia, I get more obstinate. It pretty much dominates my conversation if no one is listening or agreeing. There was shade on HF when he wasn't playing. Then he did and everyone thought he was town (otherwise why follow his TT case?). Lunatic still scum'd him till HF died. He had perfect opportunity to town HF and get off HF's bad side and still look good for going up against him. But town doesn't do that. I spoiled a few of his posts but not all. The ones I skipped either were repeats of earlier posts (like HF is scum for making him appear bad) etc. I think his main crime isn't putting in 12 hours a day here and only giving 5 player reads. Maybe a bit defensive but I've seen worse from town. Lunaticman is town. + Show Spoiler [1st post votes Koshi] + On October 20 2016 19:32 Lunaticman wrote: I just can't handle more of Koshi's platitudes. Obvious scum play as usual. #Vote Koshi + Show Spoiler [towns beenthere] + On October 20 2016 21:30 Lunaticman wrote: The tone of beentheredonethat reads as town to me, putting him in my town circle for now. + Show Spoiler [Fear reads HF, next post scums HF] + On October 21 2016 01:22 Lunaticman wrote: HF, looking like town but I'm not ready to buy what's on sale yet. Still have trust issues with you. On October 21 2016 04:37 Lunaticman wrote: That is some shady accusations without any reasons and I beg to differ greatly. I have been on point, I think you are trying to undermine my credibility. Typical mafia play. Second mafia is probably HF after Koshi. + Show Spoiler [angst spirit] + On October 21 2016 04:39 Lunaticman wrote: Stop sheeping and undermining me, I was meta reading Koshi independently from anyone, in fact bt was sheeping my read not the other way around. HF is obviously trying to make me look scum. + Show Spoiler [defensive] + On October 21 2016 04:46 Lunaticman wrote: I think I made at least 3 posts explaining why. On October 21 2016 04:50 Lunaticman wrote: haha yes you can say it like that if you want but it is more the way it was done. No reasoning just undermining my credibility with no reason and ignoring it as soon as possible, changing the subject from Koshi etc. + Show Spoiler [More HF Scum] + On October 22 2016 18:39 Lunaticman wrote: HF this entire post is just undermining town authority, not one real target just suspicion on an endless merry go around. Your playing exactly like Koshi. You also spend to much time mining credibility from other players making sure to get on their good side and playing on your reputation. For example why are there no townies on your list? That is more important than 6 different scum reads that amount to nothing. A more productive move would be to try to analyze how the wagon formed and why. That way we could probably see if Koshi was indeed saved by a scum mate or not. On October 22 2016 19:07 Lunaticman wrote: Chill, maybe I was a bit vague. I wanted you to elaborate a bit more on the "case" from your perspective and why the miss lynch was so successful. So I can analyze if you are indeed town or not. For example you look extremely scummy for saving Koshi and miss lynching. I also find it disturbing that even though you haven't contributed with anything productive for the town expect a miss lynch you still seem to want to be the town leader. Everything I have seen from you points to you being mafia, especially from a meta perspective. The only thing I find a bit lenient is that town tends to make more mistakes than mafia so that's nice I suppose. + Show Spoiler [Koshi/Art 1 is mafia] + On October 24 2016 00:10 Lunaticman wrote: There is one scum between Koshi/Artanis we have to put trust in HF:s read. I'm sorry I ever doubted you HF! <3 On October 24 2016 23:48 Lunaticman wrote: Also either of Art and Koshi are mafia so you remember when I die. The really interesting thing here is these posts are about 50 minutes apart. Instead of seeing something then drawing a conclusion based on what he saw, TS first drew the conclusion that lunaticman is town, then found the evidence to back it up. I find TS highly suspicious.He hops off the Vivax wagon (after being the first to vote him), and then he hops off the TT wagon day 1 as soon as it got a majority. He defends lunaticman as the lunatic wagon is gaining steam on day 2. And then surprise No lynch on day 2. I think this heavily implicates Tubesock. I could see Lunaticman being either scum or town here. It makes a lot more sense to me if Lunaticman is scum, as it would explain why day 2 ends without a lynch with the threat of Koshi's Double lynch. However for me to accept this idea Koshi has to be telling the truth. I can't stand playing with Koshi b/c of how intolerable he is to everyone. It makes me think he's a lying and scum even when he is telling the truth. On the other side of the coin, I could also see TS making a case for Lunaticman in an attempt to earn towncred for later. But then I'm left with the question: why did day 2 end without a lynch? Maybe scum didn't end the day maybe it was a 3rd party role? Or maybe Vivax is scum and the move was purely to keep him alive?...hmmm I'm not sure. Either way, my initial thoughts are that TS looks very scummy to me. I think I'm gonna check out Koshi now. But I think TS is my strongest scum read after Vivax. Will look at TS. About the no-lynch I am fairly certain that it would be used on cooldown. If vivax is scum: he gets saved for one day, town wastes one lynch.. If he is town: he gets saved for one day, town wastes two lynches. Either way mafia win, and to not use this ability is stupid. On October 26 2016 13:04 Hopeless1der wrote: My thoughts on Koshi: So i feel the need to say that the fact that Koshi failed to produce a double lynch is not *necessarily* his fault. He proclaimed it to the world and it got struck down. A) he thought it was nearly foolproof (and is town) B) he's scum C) hes 3p (super unlikely, this is only here for the sake of addressing all options...at this point Planar Dragon is a thing) So, while it'd be great to be able to just lynch him and be done with it, the flavor/end of the day strongly suggests the presence of Balanar (nightstalker). If we are approaching LYLO/MYLO territory, then sure lets get rid of him on the chance the he is in fact responsible for causing the no-lynch. However, I still think Koshi is more likely town than scum and I dont want to remove him, especially since he claims to have taken so much damage and is liable to die to random aoe damage without our intervention anyways, so we dont need to look at him for lynch for a couple days imo.. I'll spend more time worrying about the rest of the game after Vivax dies, but I at least want to say that I think Koshi is town atm. If I die in the meantime, oh welp, I'm not that strong imo, so not a huge deal to me. I've been hitting acro, 'protecting' lamp and annoying dandel so far this game. On October 26 2016 13:08 GlowingBear wrote: We were probably hitting Mafia yesterday. Darkness indicates it On October 05 2016 09:20 AFK Jungle wrote: Clues: There are no clues. All flavor is just that-- flavor. I mean, sure, the flavour could be a clue, but I personally would take offense to that. On October 26 2016 16:09 Acrofales wrote: Too many mental gymnastics. They stopped the lynch to prevent Vivax from getting lynched, and obviously frustrating the hell out of town. Added bonus, if koshi is town then they have a double reason to no-lynch: wasting town ultimates is always good for scum. @koshi: can you confirm you still have your vote-damage/double lynch ability? If so, i trust WoS and we need a 2nd wagon on gb by the end of the day. On October 26 2016 15:14 sicklucker wrote: i also checked his hp and its low. have at er boys I want the second wagon on someone with actual hp, that we can not finish off easily with our kp. On October 26 2016 09:00 WaveofShadow wrote: ##vote: Vivax My list as of last night still stands, except without the giant bold red letters on sicklucker. Assuming most (if not all) of the town believes I am town as well, why exactly did so many people still shoot into LT tonight? I suppose I can't blame you guys entirely, but Tubesock you especially (assuming you did the brunt of the damage) wasting a massive KP for town on him when I didn't list him as scum----especially when you've had me hard town forever? Bleh. Anyway, THIS LIST, in case people have ignored it so far: Vivax Glowingbear Lunatic Kurumi Exo Hamazura (???) Artanis sicklucker Koshi They all need to die. In something like this order, preferably. (I added Exo) Glowingbear is scum. I have confirmed this, and no, you don't need to know how. Why am I claiming this now when Vivax is already up? In case other people have some daytime stuff we can do to remove him. I'd give Koshi a chance here to do his thing today, but the reason he is on the list, is as I stated last night, it is nearly impossible to tell if he performed the no lynch action himself or if it was instigated by scum. If he is able to do it again today, we'll obviously know but until he proves himself town somehow (since a secret vote-damage-killing ability is not even remotely solely pro-town like he says) he needs to be on the block. As I believe he is likely at low life, this shouldn't be difficult. There are probably one or two people I'm missing and maybe someone who's wrong on there. The lurk makes things fairly difficult, but I don't believe I am massively wrong. The people who are under some amount of suspicion like Ritoky (who I have zero reason not to believe his claim), Skynx, Tubesock and Bill Murray I am fine with. As far as sicklucker---ugh. What I said about him last night is basically true. He's in Koshi tier right now because I can't be absolutely certain he isn't being the ballsiest scum ever---I could swear he has flat out claimed or made massive fakeclaims as scum before and had it work out for him. I don't know why I think this either but I'm not going to do the legwork involved. If somebody else wants to they're more than welcome. In any case, probabyl low priority right now but eventually he may have to be removed. Iamp you're in HF tier for me right now---that is I'm a little paranoid. You're universally townread I believe and since you can't be 3P anymore (probably) the fact that you're still alive and mostly unscathed is concerning, but not to such a degree that I;m willing to even remotely focus on you above anyone else I've listed. Just some thoughts for the future (and I say HF tier because I'm sure you could be thinking the same about me if you're town---this is how HF and I play every game together. Neither of us ever truly trust the other.) I can't be certain if protection was used on me last night (well I can, but you guys don't need to know how I'd know that either) but I didn't take any damage. Don't claim if you helped me out. Random thoughts: Scum KP likely works (I hope) similarly to how I did it in LoL mafia. There is likely some large amount of factional KP (whether this has to be delivered is a hosting choice I guess, and only somewhat relevant right now), and hopefully this can be reduced once we finally start picking them off. I would say if they can somehow prevent Vivax from dying AGAIN today we're probably super fucked because it seems as though they decided to chunk a few people last night instead of outright killing any one person just in case of protection. As such, use protection accordingly. I should be able to do a bunch more going forward assuming I'm not silenced again or somebody does something real derpy. I know this was kinda disjointed but I wanted to get some thoughts out while they were somewhat fresh. There might be more. I'm still not certain on you, but i can agree with the list. So let's go! | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
Vote Count - Day 3 Vivax (10): Skynx, Acrofales, Hopeless1der, Dandel Ion, iamperfection, Tubesock, WaveofShadow, Bill Murray, sicklucker, Artanis[Xp] sicklucker (1): Kurumi WaveofShadow (1): GlowingBear Not voted (7): Vivax, ExO_, Lunaticman, HamazuraXTakitsubo, ptmc, ritoky, Koshi It looks like Vivax is about to be owned. Day 1 ends in at 21:00 GMT (+00:00) and resolves one hour later, at 22:00 GMT (+00:00). The voting thread is here and only votes in the voting thread will be counted. | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
how do you feel about it if it was a lie tho On October 26 2016 12:12 WaveofShadow wrote: I wouldn't waste a cc on him. I bet there is something he's not telling us but overall he does seem fairly harmless, and if he helps us kill scum I'm cool with him idk he's already doing fish things. it's not wrong we need to lynch a couple mafia before worrying about it too much so w/e. On October 26 2016 13:05 GlowingBear wrote: He was suspicious of WoS, called Exo lunatic and Skynx mafia. Also called dandelion Mafia. On October 26 2016 13:07 GlowingBear wrote: WoS, dandelion, skynx, Exo, lunaticman Probs mafia team so this is about btnd i guess. and you're basing your entire read on the game on his. now that seems like top tier critical thinking to me. On October 26 2016 16:59 ExO_ wrote: I swear to god this happens in literally every single game I play on TL. Every time I think I make a really good case it gets dismissed and not discussed. Every single time. Its so frustrating. Am I really making that many leaps of logic with my read? I don't think so at all yet nobody will even give my case time of day have you tried KISSing yet | ||
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Acrofales
Spain17702 Posts
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
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ptmc
Finland306 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
Can't say much about my wincon other than that there's a bunch of them and if I claim them they become invalid so I can't :|. They're mostly related to characters so I have no idea if those are town or mafia. It's why I've been smugly saying "not scum" every time wave pinged me  | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On October 26 2016 19:13 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Game is boring, and I'm lazy. Claiming 3p. Can't say much about my wincon other than that there's a bunch of them and if I claim them they become invalid so I can't :|. They're mostly related to characters so I have no idea if those are town or mafia. It's why I've been smugly saying "not scum" every time wave pinged me So you have several win conditions, but can't discuss any of them. How can we know your win conditions are town aligned? What incentive do you have to work with town to find and kill scum? | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
On October 26 2016 19:34 ExO_ wrote: So you have several win conditions, but can't discuss any of them. How can we know your win conditions are town aligned? What incentive do you have to work with town to find and kill scum? They're related to dealing with certain heroes. Since I have no idea who they are or what alignment they are I mind as well work with town to find scum. My incentive is to have the game last longer so I can actually achieve said wincons. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On October 26 2016 19:36 Artanis[Xp] wrote: They're related to dealing with certain heroes. Since I have no idea who they are or what alignment they are I mind as well work with town to find scum. My incentive is to have the game last longer so I can actually achieve said wincons. Then tell us some of the hero names. That could potentially be a big help. If we know some of the other heroes we can maybe work out potentially what they might do. | ||
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