EPTMafia in the Himalayas - Page 207
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
| ||
|
LightningStrike
United States14276 Posts
| ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
As an opener, I assume we are all onboard with lynching Mig and HF? I recognise that there is a very minimal chance that HF is miller/was framed, but given that it's a red check from the confirmed cop, I think the odds are much better there than they would be with anyone else. Mig is a no-brainer, given that ritoky was suspicious of him (and this feels a lot like what happened in HG, when rit was suspicious of TT, who was mafia), and also the whole GB green-check bait. If people really aren't enthused about posting, we can play it out until then, as the NK's will further narrow the pool. | ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
| ||
|
ruXxar
Norway5668 Posts
If not read some of my arguments against both and reevaluate: mig 1 mig 2 mig 3 Holy flare Of course, read the arguments others have made as well and think through it. Think rationally and not emotionally. Emotions are easy to influence. After that, let's continue with discussion. To start off, I want everyone to give me their top mafia reads besides HF and mig. I want to hear from ALL of you. Mine is onegu as I've outlined here. I was a bit lazy yesterday so I don't have a 4th mafia suspect yet. I haven't looked into damdred, shockey and NHM yet, but I'll get to it before the end of this day. | ||
|
Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
| ||
|
Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
I haven't looked into damdred, shockey and NHM yet So what you're telling me is that when i made a case on damdred and you responded you did so without even giving a crap about damdred's filter?? | ||
|
Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
I recognise that there is a very minimal chance that HF is miller/was framed, but given that it's a red check from the confirmed cop, I think the odds are much better there than they would be with anyone else. You realise that this automatically loses us the game? It's not a "minimal chance" it's the actual fact of the matter. You need to reevaluate. I realise that having rsoultin in your qt is a detriment since she was so tunneled on wifom scenarios that she couldn't see the actual version of events that unfolded and repeatedly shut down any discourse for the correct version of events but still. I totally understand how hard it is to believe someone that has a red check on them but at least try what i did yesterday and make scenarios for the 2 eventualities that will unfold. "if hf is town mafia is x, y, z" "if hf is mafia then mafia x, y, z" because that way you won't be totally tunneled on the wrong situation | ||
|
ruXxar
Norway5668 Posts
On June 26 2015 22:50 Holyflare wrote: You realise that this automatically loses us the game? It's not a "minimal chance" it's the actual fact of the matter. You need to reevaluate. I realise that having rsoultin in your qt is a detriment since she was so tunneled on wifom scenarios that she couldn't see the actual version of events that unfolded and repeatedly shut down any discourse for the correct version of events but still. I totally understand how hard it is to believe someone that has a red check on them but at least try what i did yesterday and make scenarios for the 2 eventualities that will unfold. "if hf is town mafia is x, y, z" "if hf is mafia then mafia x, y, z" because that way you won't be totally tunneled on the wrong situation HF, I'd be happy if you'd read the post I made about you here, and responded to it. Take it all into consideration and try to imagine it from my point of view. The chance that you aren't mafia is so small that I can't see a reason to believe that you aren't. Of course you're going to say that you're town if you're mafia. Anything else would just lose you the game. Like tell me, if you were a betting man, would you put money on you being mafia or not? | ||
|
ruXxar
Norway5668 Posts
On June 26 2015 22:40 Holyflare wrote: So what you're telling me is that when i made a case on damdred and you responded you did so without even giving a crap about damdred's filter?? I skimmed over his filter to find evidence to support the points you made. I was not looking to make a total judgement of damdred at that time. | ||
|
ruXxar
Norway5668 Posts
On June 26 2015 18:21 Fidei86 wrote: Okay, with rsoult out it looks like I'm going to have to take up the reins a little bit. As an opener, I assume we are all onboard with lynching Mig and HF? I recognise that there is a very minimal chance that HF is miller/was framed, but given that it's a red check from the confirmed cop, I think the odds are much better there than they would be with anyone else. Mig is a no-brainer, given that ritoky was suspicious of him (and this feels a lot like what happened in HG, when rit was suspicious of TT, who was mafia), and also the whole GB green-check bait. If people really aren't enthused about posting, we can play it out until then, as the NK's will further narrow the pool. Fidei, I'd love to hear your thoughts on the situation. Who are your top mafia reads? | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Day 4 Vote Count Mig (5): ruXxar, Fidei86, VayneAuthority, LightningStrike, NydusHerMain Not voted (5): ShoCkeyy, Damdred, Holyflare, Onegu, Mig Clinging to the ledge, Mig hangs over the abyss. Day 4 ends in at 22:00 GMT (+00:00). The voting thread is here. Only votes in the voting thread will be counted. | ||
|
NydusHerMain
Canada492 Posts
| ||
|
VayneAuthority
United States8983 Posts
still undecided on holyflare. but it would make sense to slide him into GB's spot on my diagram as I was on the wrong side of the argument. I felt one had to be scum. So if we cross out my left diagram and go with the right we end up with ( | ||
|
ruXxar
Norway5668 Posts
On June 27 2015 02:00 VayneAuthority wrote: I have decided that damdred is 100% scum, truth (tm) read. still undecided on holyflare. but it would make sense to slide him into GB's spot on my diagram as I was on the wrong side of the argument. I felt one had to be scum. So if we cross out my left diagram and go with the right we end up with ( Care to give some reasons? | ||
|
Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
On June 26 2015 23:12 ruXxar wrote: HF, I'd be happy if you'd read the post I made about you here, and responded to it. Take it all into consideration and try to imagine it from my point of view. The chance that you aren't mafia is so small that I can't see a reason to believe that you aren't. Of course you're going to say that you're town if you're mafia. Anything else would just lose you the game. Like tell me, if you were a betting man, would you put money on you being mafia or not? Your reasons are silly and tunneled. I am clearly a miller or framed, stop judging by scenarios and judge by my actual play! Where have i pushed mafia things? I've only pushed what i believe to be the case. Gb said he checked lightningstrike but town read him on n1. He then checks me when he said all of my mafia reads that i had been pushing were his mafia reads? Then mig reveals he's tracker. I believed the sensible option and was wrong. See how that works? The most obvious is not always the case. I was supremely tunneled on gb being mafia and my vote was already on gb before mig claimed tracker. Like you said. Mig claiming gets a free cop death or ends in his death anyway. Gb said he had to go to school and then mig claimed without the resistance. It's not hard to reason that mig took that chance. Onegu could be mafia anyway and he didn't "need" mafia to do it and i'm not sure why you say mafia must be on it when the majority of the wagon was town. You yourself even started to believe the claim, are you saying you are mafia too? None of your reasons point to me being mafia. If i'm a tunneled towny and see the person i call mafia all game promote the shittiest reads and checks with bad reasons amd then i see something to convince me I'm right what would i do in that situation? The exact same thing. | ||
Mig
United States4714 Posts
On June 27 2015 01:44 NydusHerMain wrote: Can we like expedite this day/night phase? We all know MiG is dying and then we'll see tomorrow You want to give up 24 hours in Lylo? Sounds smart. Is no one concerned at how easily I am being lynched here, there is 0 resistance. Ask yourselves is it really more likely that I am going to flip red than hf who has a red check on him? Or Damdred who convienetly hasn't be around for every single lynch? I took a shot and it didn't work out but I think most people havent even read my posts this game. | ||
|
Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
| ||
|
Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
So many situations and you only pick one | ||
|
ruXxar
Norway5668 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On June 26 2015 23:12 ruXxar wrote: HF, I'd be happy if you'd read the post I made about you here, and responded to it. Take it all into consideration and try to imagine it from my point of view. The chance that you aren't mafia is so small that I can't see a reason to believe that you aren't. Of course you're going to say that you're town if you're mafia. Anything else would just lose you the game. Like tell me, if you were a betting man, would you put money on you being mafia or not? Your reasons are silly and tunneled. I am clearly a miller or framed, stop judging by scenarios and judge by my actual play! Where have i pushed mafia things? I've only pushed what i believe to be the case. Gb said he checked lightningstrike but town read him on n1. He then checks me when he said all of my mafia reads that i had been pushing were his mafia reads? Then mig reveals he's tracker. I believed the sensible option and was wrong. See how that works? The most obvious is not always the case. I was supremely tunneled on gb being mafia and my vote was already on gb before mig claimed tracker. Like you said. Mig claiming gets a free cop death or ends in his death anyway. Gb said he had to go to school and then mig claimed without the resistance. It's not hard to reason that mig took that chance. Onegu could be mafia anyway and he didn't "need" mafia to do it and i'm not sure why you say mafia must be on it when the majority of the wagon was town. You yourself even started to believe the claim, are you saying you are mafia too? None of your reasons point to me being mafia. If i'm a tunneled towny and see the person i call mafia all game promote the shittiest reads and checks with bad reasons amd then i see something to convince me I'm right what would i do in that situation? The exact same thing. Holyflare wrote: + Show Spoiler +Your reasons are silly and tunneled. I am clearly a miller or framed, stop judging by scenarios and judge by my actual play! On June 24 2015 06:42 Holyflare wrote: it doesn't matter, i'll flip vt or miller and then you make sense of his claim later really don't think mafia would frame me in this case On June 24 2015 23:04 Holyflare wrote: like seriously this is mafia's thought process if you think i was framed and gb is town: "yeh gb is fake cop or whatever cz that mig check totally bad, who should we frame guys since he's not the cop? OH that guy that looks pretty towny and shit and will probably never ever get checked?????????" On June 25 2015 00:21 Holyflare wrote: If you believe mig is mafia and GB didn't get rb'd or killed because they thought he was fake claiming, then they would never ever in their life frame me since GB is the only one that would ever check me. On June 25 2015 01:27 Holyflare wrote: but this doesn't matter, they'll see my flip and go straight for you btw to everyone else, if he ever ever ever claims that i must be framed, do NOT believe that bull shit Clearly you were not framed. So the *only* reason you were redchecked is that you're a miller. Holyflare wrote: Gb said he checked lightningstrike but town read him on n1 I agree that this didn't make much sense. Holyflare wrote: Onegu could be mafia anyway and he didn't "need" mafia to do it and i'm not sure why you say mafia must be on it when the majority of the wagon was town. The only reason there was so many town people on that wagon was because VA outed himself. If VA didn't confirm that he went to bugs, I doubt very few town people would've actually switched to GB. I know I would never even have considered it if it wasn't for VA. There is *no way* that mig could've expected that "support" from VA. Hence he needed support from other mafioso to even have a shot. Otherwise he would've just let you die. I already showed you why mig wasn't in danger. ----- Everything else aside, you want me to take the 1/13 chance that you are the miller? That is a 8% chance. I'm not taking those odds. | ||
| ||
