Disclaimer: I know that the Chinese reshuffle has yet to happen, but barring a ridiculous amount of reshuffling I feel that the invites for China are probably already set in stone; the biggest potential for an upset would be the qualifiers.
How are the Invites Determined?
Barring a huge change in the format for the International, I expect to see an invite structure similar to last year. With that in mind, we should first examine the shape of the field that Valve invited last year.
Team Breakdown by region: 1 America, 5 Europe, 4 China, 1 Southeast Asia.
The first thing to notice is that the invite structure was 6 western teams and 5 eastern teams. The +1 for the West is most likely due to the fact that Alliance, a Western team, had won the previous international. My interpretation is that the stable invite structure is probably 1 American, 4 European, 4 Chinese, 1 Southeast Asia, and 1 team that represents the best from the rest of the teams that are left, no matter where they are from.
So, for the rest of this blog post, we'll treat the breakdown to be that way. For each region, I'll talk about the probably invites as well as the potential for other teams to sneak in and take invites, as well as the possible looks for the regional qualifiers!
The Americas
Direct Invite
This is probably the easiest part of the whole post; Evil Geniuses will for sure be receiving an invite. They won DAC, they placed the highest out of any other western team at the last International, and they have had consistently amazing results against the best teams in the world all year, with perhaps a small hiccup at the D2L LAN finals right after their most recent roster change.
Are there any other teams in the Americas region that deserve a direct invite through the possible +1 that Valve could use? As of right now, I would say no. However, there is a small possibility that could change. Summer's Rift has been performing very well recently, as has Not Today (currently 8-2 in MLG and probably the best South American team). There is also an outside shot that eHug could earn a direct invite if they win the Major Allstars LAN that is coming up soon. However, their performance in other tournaments has been a bit lackluster recently, so outside of winning that LAN I don't see much hope for them.
Direct Invite:
Evil Geniuses
Possibility of direct invite if things break completely their way:
Summer's Rift
Not Today
eHug
American Qualifiers
This is where things get fun! The American scene has a ton of really solid tier two teams, so there is almost no room for any random teams to make a case for being included. Here's what I see for the qualifiers, in order, for the American scene:
1. Summer's Rift
2. Not Today
3. Team Tinker
4. Complexity
5. eHug
6. Wheel Wreck While Whistling
7. Void Boys
8. Leviathan
9. paiN Gaming
10. Boreal / Isurus / Monib Baray (Merlini's Team) / FIRE / Thundercats! (new Fluff stack)
I feel really confident in the top 9 of this list (baring a disband of Void Boys due to Pat Soul's supposed joining of Team Tinker, and even then they might stick around). The last slot is really tough to decide, and I think that if either Boreal or Monib Baray qualifier for the second stage of The Summit 3, they will possibly receive the last invite. It's also possible that Leviathan gets left out if they really bomb their playoff stage performance in The Summit 3, but they had a pretty good middle part of the year so I think they're pretty safe still.
This qualifier is crowded, and I don't see another American team getting an invite based on performance. It's possible, but unlikely. Sadly, some good American teams are going to be left out. Thems the breaks I guess.
Europe
Direct Invite
From one crowded region to another, the Europe Invites! It is pretty certain at this point that C9 and Secret will receive direct invites for sure. Beyond that, it can get a little bit dicey. There's a pretty clear second tier in Europe behind those 2 teams: Empire, ASUS.Polar, Ninja's in Pajamas, Hellraisers, and Na'Vi. Unfortunately for these 5 teams, at most only 3 of them will receive direct invites to TI5 (and that's if Europe gets the special +1 invite this year). So, let's do a comparison using two different ranking systems: joinDota's and Gosugamers! JoinDota rankings are listed first, while Gosugamer's ranking are listed second. These are current world rankings:
Empire 5 / 4
Polar 11 / 7
NiP 14 / 10
HR 15 / 6
Na'Vi 12 / 12
Well, this actually is pretty helpful. Both ranking systems put ASUS and Empire ahead of the pack, with HR ahead on the Gosugamers rankings by only a single spot. So, if the European region doesn't receive the +1 and only gets two more invites, then we're done and good to go. If Valve decides to give EU a +1 invite, this becomes really, really hard. Picking the team that should go between these three is tough... I would personally pick NiP at this current moment in time, but I believe each of these three teams holds their destiny in their own hands! Na'Vi winning the Major Allstars LAN would basically assure them an invite imo. HR's early exit from The Summit 3 was a tough break, and both NiP and HR are performing extremely well in MLG. This is a tough one folks! My predictions:
Direct Invites
Butt9
Secret
Empire
ASUS.Polar
Could get a direct invite if things break their way:
NiP
Hellraisers
Na'Vi
European Qualifiers
Oh man, and you thought the American qualifiers were crowded? This is going to be super, super messy. First, a list of the teams:
1. Ninjas in Pajamas
2. Hellraisers
3. Na'Vi
4. Power Rangers
5. Virtus Pro
6. Alliance
7. Meepwn'd
8. 4 Anchors
9. Vega
10. Balkan Bears
11. London Conspiracy
12. Moscow 5
13. Burden United maybe?
Super deep pool! Lots of good teams, and I think on a good streak any of the top 8 teams here could potentially make it to Seattle. I wish there was a way to fit BBC more easily in here, as they are a personal favorite of mine and have played really well in the MLG league, but there's just so many European teams that can claim that spot that there's not much I can say if they don't make it.
Southeast Asia
Direct Invite
This is potentially a bit messier than the America Invite, but not as bad as Europe. Rave is currently the clear front runner after a great performance at DAC, which saw them getting 5th - 6th place and beating HR, iG, Tongfu, CDEC, and many other pretty good teams. MVP Phoenix most likely had a claim to this spot before DAC, but a sub-par performance by them and a roster change has made that possibility unlikely.
There are a couple of teams that are waiting in the wings, however. Can't Say Wips performed well earlier this year but has since gone downhill; a full recovery by winning the Major Allstars LAN or by advancing to the LAN stage of the Summit could put them back in contention for a spot. The same can probably be said for 5eva, who could parley the success of First Departure and some good results now during The Summit 3 into a direct invite slot (but their MLG record is lacking). Another possibility is the star power behind Ehome.MY getting a direct invite slot, but they are short on tournaments to participate in at the moment.
Direct Invite:
Rave
Could get a direct invite if things break their way:
Ehome.MY
MVP Phoenix
Can't Say Wips
5eva
Southeast Asian Qualifiers
Oh man, I love Southeast Asia because they have so many fun teams for the qualifiers! While this is a little bit harder to determine, I think you'll probably see a nice mix of teams from all over the place in this qualifier!
1. Ehome.MY
2. MVP Phoenix
3. Can't Say Wips
4. 5eva
5. Mineski
6. Invasion
7. Arcanys
8. Signature Trust (MiTH.Trust! My boys!)
9. MVP Hot6
10. Underminer
11. Nvidia Aces
12. G Guard (If they still exist)
13. Execration
Lots of teams to choose from here, and a lot of exciting ones too! The ESL Frankfurt qualifiers will have some bearing on this, as will the potential existence of these teams going forward (I'm looking at you, G Guard). This will probably be the most exciting qualifier because all of these teams have a distinct and very entertaining play style: the former Orange trio, Godot's Enchantress, March's Warlock, one of the best carries in DotA history in Lakelz on Signature Trust (though he's been off his game for a little while now), MVP Hot6 with the revenge angle on MVP Phoenix, and Aces with probably the best Wisp in SEA and one of the best Wisp players in the world!
China
Before we jump into China, I just want to say again this might be a tough region to talk about before we know all the details of the shuffle, but since it is unlikely that more than 1 or two players on a team are changing, I feel alright talking about the direct invites at least!
Direct Invite
This is pretty easy; you'll see all of the superstars of China invited, and I'm pretty sure they'll all be split up between 4 teams: Newbee, VG, LGD, and iG. We already have confirmation that Burning is going to iG, and I've heard rumors of Hao to LGD, Xiao8 to Newbee, and Rabbit to VG. I think it's safe to say that all of these teams will be invited, Newbee's awful DAC not withstanding.
Where the interesting story comes in is if there is enough left over talent from this shuffle to form a fifth all-star team. It's possible, but I think unlikely. I've heard rumors of rotK to CDEC, but Maybe's rumored to be leaving CDEC for LGD as well. I think, given past results as well as the rumors that I've heard from various places, that CDEC and EHome.CN (as former Lv Gaming, which won D2L) could potentially receive a direct invite. There's also plucky little Tongfu, which could look to make a move and performed equally with CDEC during DAC. There's also ZSMJ, waiting for something on HGT!
Direct Invites:
Vici Gaming
LGD Gaming
Invictus Gaming
Newbee
Could get a direct invite if they get the right players and things break their way:
CDEC
Ehome.CN
Tongfu
Hyper Glory Team
China Qualifiers
Honest, I have no idea what's going to happen here. This depends so much on the reshuffle that I can't give a clear picture, so I'm just not going to speculate that much on who might be here. A good guide for this might be the teams from the DAC Asian Qualifiers:
1. Tongfu
2. CDEC
3. Ehome.CN
4. Hyper Glory Team
5. Speed Gaming
6. Immortal Magneto Gaming
7. Lai Gaming
8. DK
9. Dream Gaming
10. Wings Gaming
11. Energy Pacemaker
So, there you have it! Now that we've waded a bit of the way through the waters, it's time for me to make a prediction!
Direct Invites
1. EG
2. Secret
3. Cloud9
4. Empire
5. ASUS.Polar
6. Rave
7. Newbee
8. LGD
9. VG
10. iG
11. Ehome.MY / Na'Vi / NiP / HR
I think you'll see the European team that distinguishes themselves from the rest of the pack take the final invite, and if none of them step up and take it I think you'll see Ehome.MY claim the final spot (baring a 5th Chinese super team, which I think is unlikely). Ehome.MY has the core of one of the best SEA teams ever at their disposal, and this group performed well in a limited time as Team Malaysia after TI 4 was over. I think they can ride that into a direct invite as long as no European team pulls off something amazing, like NiP or Na'Vi advancing to the LAN finals of the Summit or Na'Vi winning the Major Allstars LAN. Any of the teams I've listed above have a shot at getting there if things happen to go right for them, but this is what I see as the most likely scenario.
Just for fun, here's my qualifier winners and second placers as of today if the invite goes to Ehome.MY:
America 1st: Summer's Rift
America 2nd: Team Tinker
Europe 1st: NiP
Europe 2nd: Na'Vi
SEA 1st: MVP Phoenix
SEA 2nd: Invasion
China 1st: CDEC
China 2nd: Tongfu
Let me know what you guys think! I've enjoyed writing this, so I hope you've enjoyed reading it.