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Okay I've read the pages since I left yesterday. Jesus Christ some long-winded posts, and the improper quotation format from rsoultin/jarjar was annoying.
I think jarjar in a lot of his reads is suffering from confirmation bias. I'm not entirely sure where I stand on him right now. For now, I don't think I can consider him scum. Null
I'm strong town-reading HTS. Everything she's posted has been good in my opinion. She's asked questions I've wanted to know the answers to as I read the thread.
I think I'm still sold that Lightning Strike is scum. He has an OMGUS on shining today after shining voted him. I know he's saying his mother's medical problems are affecting him a bit, but I don't think it even comes close to being able to clear him as town. Strong Scum
Based on his day 1 play, I thought shining might've been scum. But he's really stepped it up since then. I think he's made some bad calls and reads, but I believe it's due to his newness rather than him being scum. I'd say he's more misguided town. Soft town read for now.
Going to quote directly from my notes: "Gumdrops is an inactive scummy fuck". He's not helping town at all. From his last post:
On January 08 2015 08:10 Gumdrop wrote:
I didn't agree with some of his thoughts on his only large scale analysis of peoples alignments, but thats neither here nor there now.
I was paralyzed with inaction, because I didn't know what to do and none of the options seemed like good ones. Taking a look at the votes, and based off the information on how tie votes are decided that Trfel gave us, it would have taken at least two people to make a not WarWaffle lynch happen.
First he offers a piss-poor "I didn't agree with his (WarWaffle) thoughts, without explaining what he means at all. Then this "paralyzed with inaction" not knowing what to do crap. If he didn't know what to do, why is he not posting in the thread asking questions and figuring out what to do?
Then there's Celestial. I think I'm starting to scum read him as well. I didn't like that he just parked his vote on jarjar. I also don't like how he seems to be going whichever way the wind blows. He's easily swayed with whoever is posting at the time. For example he hopped right on the LS train with me, then when I was gone for a while he backed off it, only to start agreeing with me more when I got back in the thread. Another example is he did a bit of an OMGUS on rsoultin after day 1, but immediately said he was willing to give he the benefit of the doubt. That's scum behavior in my mind. Scum read.
So thats my first thoughts. I'll also say it looks like we do not have a vigi, as I'd expect the vigi to shoot night 1.
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On January 08 2015 14:02 rsoultin wrote:
Something else came to mind as I was thinking. Why are Celestial and ExO mad at WW for softclaiming when they weren't voting for him in the first place? It's an idle thought but seems out of place from where I'm sitting now. I get the ones who were scumreading/lynching him being upset.
Hey, here, for a little bit. Your second question, I am trying to think through.
If WW claimed VT, that's poor because that helps scum narrow down potential power roles. Here I can see any town being arsed.
But as a PR, from a fellow town perspective, you should be claiming when you're well on your way to a lynch. I did that in Carol, granted I hardclaimed in that one, but the point stands. People removed their votes off me or moved it to Holyflare, the alternative target at that time.
Maybe these guys (in error) assumed that others would remove their votes if they hard claimed? There were a few who said they didn't believe him because it was a softclaim. ExO doesn't say either way from reading his filter and Celestial complained but I cannot find a reason from him either, not that I can see.
Soft claim vs hard claim I can understand the debate, although you clarified how his call was appropriate post-lynch for his specific role.
I could see someone assuming a blue role claiming too prematurely, like say D1, getting themselves killed, but this lad did not hard claim. Cops in particular are discouraged from claiming D1, but WW was obviously not cop.
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Yes ExO we just kept messing up the formatting >> Formatting is my fatal flaw or something. Among others.
Okay, since you're here, why so pissed at WW?
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On January 08 2015 14:02 rsoultin wrote:
HTS, you still here? I need someone to talk to who I'm not scumreading/feeling iffy about.
What are your impressions on the voting? I read your earlier post and can see you're not sure about LS or JarJar right now.
Something else came to mind as I was thinking. Why are Celestial and ExO mad at WW for softclaiming when they weren't voting for him in the first place? It's an idle thought but seems out of place from where I'm sitting now. I get the ones who were scumreading/lynching him being upset.
I'm mad at WW for bad play. He has a blue role. but he's inactive as hell, and when he does post his reads are bad and filled with wrong information. Then he soft claims blue when he's about to die. I know I'd try to fake claim if I was a mafia and looking like the inevitable lynch, and that's what this looked like to me.
So I'm mad that an important town player couldn't take the time to play the game, potentially fucking the rest of us over. I didn't switch my vote over to him because I didn't need to. But I was around at EoD and you better believe I was watching for last second shenanigans. If I saw people moving votes at the last second, I would've jumped on to the WW train.
I still believe LS was the better vote. I still believe LS is scum now. But the case on WW was decent in my opinion.
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On January 08 2015 14:28 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2015 14:02 rsoultin wrote:
Something else came to mind as I was thinking. Why are Celestial and ExO mad at WW for softclaiming when they weren't voting for him in the first place? It's an idle thought but seems out of place from where I'm sitting now. I get the ones who were scumreading/lynching him being upset. Hey, here, for a little bit. Your second question, I am trying to think through. If WW claimed VT, that's poor because that helps scum narrow down potential power roles. Here I can see any town being arsed. But as a PR, from a fellow town perspective, you should be claiming when you're well on your way to a lynch. I did that in Carol, granted I hardclaimed in that one, but the point stands. People removed their votes off me or moved it to Holyflare, the alternative target at that time. Maybe these guys (in error) assumed that others would remove their votes if they hard claimed? There were a few who said they didn't believe him because it was a softclaim. ExO doesn't say either way from reading his filter and Celestial complained but I cannot find a reason from him either, not that I can see. Soft claim vs hard claim I can understand the debate, although you clarified how his call was appropriate post-lynch for his specific role. I could see someone assuming a blue role claiming too prematurely, like say D1, getting themselves killed, but this lad did not hard claim. Cops in particular are discouraged from claiming D1, but WW was obviously not cop.
Can see that, actually. Thanks. It probably will always feel off to me, but at least I can see how it could be genuine.
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Rasputin, my impressions on the voting, to sum my post up from last night (page 19) is that there was likely one mafia on the leading wagon, one mafia that was in isolation, and the third, could be either, or the counterwagon. Again, I'm under the assumption there are three. If there are more than three, we are in serious trouble. In which case, I'd say it's likely there are two mafia on the leading wagon.
And I am trying to use other means of reading people to dissect what went into their votes.
Read development is a method that Vivax used successfully in Carol, and I am trying to use that as part of my basis.
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Well! Soultin took pity on me and told me about the Filter function. Let me tell you...that helps so much. (Who knew that going page by page out of all of these was a 'bad' idea? XD)
So, I think first and foremost...I owe a recap of what I think everyone is!
The Shining: You, my friend, are getting scum votes all over the place! And I'm not entirely sure what to make of you just yet. Part of this is certainly my inexperience, but I felt you defended yourself relatively well here in your second post. The first ones you gave flipped back and forth, but it looks like you're backing your decision this round. I'm neutral, leaning towards towne.
HTS: You asked my motivations and thoughts on what's transpired so far. Personally, my first thought is 'Crap, we're getting picked off!". In regards to Waffle, you're right, I sheeped (I believe this means when we're following the votes of others rather than something else, right?). I did this because the cases being made were more reasonable to me at the time. When I was scumming ExO and Gumdrop, I wanted to give them the opportunity to respond before I condemed. I can't say I tunneled, but the sudden silence on Waffle's part made me more suspicious than anything.
As for how I feel about you? (Sheesh I wish we didn't keep missing each other! Well, if I survive til the weekend, I have that off? =D) You've been very consistent and straight forward. You are a straight on town read for me. What are your assessments currently?
Also, in answer to your last post you popped up...I have never played this game before. I am a complete newbie and this is game number 1. (Soultin had been talking about Mafia games continually and I told her I'd try it out). So if it's hard to read me, believe me when I say I find it difficult to read all of you. I'll keep trying though. =)
LS: You are a constant poster, and points to you for that. You do a great job keeping other posters engaged and getting people talking and questioning. I looked through your filter through the beginning. (talk about a read!). Currently, looking through your posts, i'm reading a lot of generalization and little to no specifics on your reads at the moment. I'm growing steadily suspicious of you, particularly with your votes following the 'sheeping trend' (hee...I like that phrase), but I'm seeing little to nothing else. Can you tell me how you're feeling on the people here in, in what way you're leaning and why?
JarJar: I'm not sure what EOD means, but yes, that whole crazy paying the bills thing is biting me in the rear at the moment. Now then...let me bump back to replying to your post at me. That being said, I'm not sure if you just called me out on being scum or not. So, I'll respond as though you did and if you didn't? Weelll...bonus information? =D
I'm discovering one of the hardest things about defending yourself from that view is activity with posting. To compensate, I do my best to post when I come home and before going to work. THAT said...my vote on Waffle was indeed sheeping with Rsoultin. She wrote a good defense and looking back through the posts (which I was going page by page at the time...gosh I love filters) it made logical sense to me. And for me, that matters. That said, in defense against being scum, while I sheeped a vote, I have not tunneled towards anyone and I've been open and honest about what I thought and why.
So let me direct a question or two towards you. You aren't out of the suspicion waters yet with me! =P Following what you said about voting LS, what is your reasoning for it? What ranks him above Tube or Shining?
Gumdrop: I have to admit, I'm more than a little concerned about you not posting,my friend. When you show up, share your thoughts! Who's suspicious? Who isn't?
Celestial: You're been prolific in your posting, and it's led me to think town for you at first. The throwing away of your vote (as you put it) still puts a redmark on you to watch. I think my biggest fret is the free town passes early, straight to the vote...and then I'm not seeing much here about trying to contribute for the town and it feels floaty about-ish. Is Rsoultin your biggest target right now? Why?
Tubeshock: I'm just neutral on you. You put thought into short bits of words. I'd be really interested in knowing what you think of everyone at this point too. Are JarJar and Shining still your top picks?
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o.o Holy canolies, Batman. Another page appeared while I was posting!
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On January 08 2015 14:33 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2015 14:02 rsoultin wrote:
HTS, you still here? I need someone to talk to who I'm not scumreading/feeling iffy about.
What are your impressions on the voting? I read your earlier post and can see you're not sure about LS or JarJar right now.
Something else came to mind as I was thinking. Why are Celestial and ExO mad at WW for softclaiming when they weren't voting for him in the first place? It's an idle thought but seems out of place from where I'm sitting now. I get the ones who were scumreading/lynching him being upset. I'm mad at WW for bad play. He has a blue role. but he's inactive as hell, and when he does post his reads are bad and filled with wrong information. Then he soft claims blue when he's about to die. I know I'd try to fake claim if I was a mafia and looking like the inevitable lynch, and that's what this looked like to me. So I'm mad that an important town player couldn't take the time to play the game, potentially fucking the rest of us over. I didn't switch my vote over to him because I didn't need to. But I was around at EoD and you better believe I was watching for last second shenanigans. If I saw people moving votes at the last second, I would've jumped on to the WW train. I still believe LS was the better vote. I still believe LS is scum now. But the case on WW was decent in my opinion.
I stand by the soft claim being the right choice for the vet. However WW was inactive and his reads were bad, can't argue that. The inactivity was why I voted him in the first place. Your anger makes more sense in that context.
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The thing is I don't think soft claiming blue was the correct decision in this case, except if you are doctor.
As doc if you hard claim you're dead at night regardless, so soft claim is better.
As vig if you hard claim you can still get your night kill off, and doc may protect you.
As Veteran if you hard claim, yeah you can't absorb a mafia hit anymore but now we have a confirmed town. This is a good thing.
As Cop if you hard claim, doctor can protect you at night.
I know it's not 100% sure thing we have a doc (chances are we don't have a doc and a cop tbh, the combo is too good), but I think in every situation but doctor you hard claim if you are going to be lynched.
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Maybe.
I still don't see the value in lynching a soft blue claim on Day 1, personally, while I could see it later in the game. But maybe that's just me.
The problem with any claiming in this game is the lack of knowledge of which roles are actually in the game :/.
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Eh, doesn't really matter that much anyway. I've mostly thrown out scumreads based on how I think town should have reacted there. Thanks for answering my questions.
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Ahh, so not all of the roles are known? I thought the list at the beginning was definite.
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ok, to bed with me. Take care everyone.
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On December 28 2014 05:40 kitaman27 wrote:
[center]24 Mafia
Setup Information:
This is a semi-open set-up meaning that while all of the roles possible will be displayed the number of each role in game is unknown. All roles are not guaranteed to be present. The mafia team has one factional kp per night that cannot be roleblocked.
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EBWOP:
Yet another formatting snafu for you ExO xP
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I really don't like how LS is maneuvering around me. RSoultin is being very blatant about the fact that if I flip scum, LS will, too. By that same logic, if I flip town(which mafia knows I will), LS will flip town, too(which I don't believe).
On January 08 2015 13:08 LightningStrike wrote:
Also I do think maybe mafia also could frame Shining and Me with that Night Kill on to Tfrel since he voted for but idk I will filter dive Tfrel in the morning because I really sleepy right now so I will get back with you guys in the morning!
It's convenient to group us together and call the framing ahead of time, since it's likely exactly what will happen here.
HTS, to answer you, I do not know Silverarte, unless she goes by another name that I'm unaware of. The only people that I know I've played with before are Jar Jar, RSoultin and ExO. As for why I gave Silver a town read, I looked through her filter as I was doing my vote analysis. It came down to her and LS. Her posts up until now, although not the highest number, have all done a good job of showing she's reading the thread when she can and answering questions and suspicions directed towards her pretty well, when possible. As opposed to LS, who I've made my case against already. I don't think the mafia is dumb enough to have 2 members on the main wagon so I had to choose between the two and Silver leans slightly more towards Town.
Also, another page will probably appear while I'm posting this so more to follow.
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JarJar. I've been your #2 scum for a longtime. You've "yelled" at the others.
Why have you not come at me yet?
Why did Trfel die? I think we will find more answers here than we will in voter analysis. More specifically, I'm going to concentrate on answering that question while you guys continue talking about voter analysis. We need both.
I'll be here for another hour or two, then bed, then much of the day tomorrow.
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Can't sleep. EoD timing for me is 3pm so I think I'll be awake around 10 or 11.
I'd like to talk about the possible nk's targets. I don't understand nk picks so, I really want feedback on my reasoning. If I were scum, I think I'd kill the biggest threat. This would be either the best players (hardest to lynch) or who are on the right track.
-Celestial- is universally townread at least till the lynch. Probably a doc save. Bad choice. The next towniest people I think are including their targets:
2. ExO_ His only real scumread was LightningStrike and to a lessor extent WarWaffle.
3. Rsoultin Scumming The Shining and I think LightningStrike, also fine with killing Warwaffle
4. Half The Sky Scumming LightingStrike and The Shining
5. Tubesock murdered Warwaffle and voiced next targets as JarJar, The Shining, and LightningStrike
6. Trfel no targets. sheep voted The Shining. Repeatedly defended LS and The Shining.
The rest of you are either lynch targets or lurkers.
In a world where mafia picks the nk based on reputation of play (assuming -Celestial- would get the save), I have a hard time believing that Rsoultin or Half The Sky live. HTS in Carol was amazing. She had 3 jailkeeper (I think that's the generic term for her role) saves, then layed a trap, hard claimed, and then within seconds it seemed mafia conceded. It was BEAUTIFUL. Rsoultin had gorgeous cases, AND a great thread presence with influence. Her reads were not 100% correct but she had a very strong role in winning that game. Trfel helped win the game because he was able to cop check a towny and get it out before he was killed n2 and he had a good case on our first mafia kill that tipped the scales for the lynch.
Of those three nk targets (Rsoultin, HTS, Trfel) Rsoultin and HTS are strong towns in this game. Trfel hasn't really done much. He is a basic lurker. I don't think he'd be a threat.
Unless The Shining and LightningStrike are town. Every single majority read towny is either building cases or scumming hard The Shining and LightningStrike. Those two are buried. They will flip town. Which means get rid of the guy who could stop those miss lynches. Which goes back to Trfel.
On January 07 2015 07:06 Trfel wrote:I guess I don't like lynching TheWarWaffle, LightningStrike, or The Shining. Yay. Not super convinced that any of them are scum. So I suppose that I prefer a lynch on The Shining over the other two, since The Shining has been reasonably inactive, despite constantly saying he will play more. I like some of the points rsoultin brought up (primarily the constant references to posting more soon... I get it the first time, or the second time, but now it seems like stalling to try and avoid getting lynched... kind of mad that I didn't notice that for myself). The other reason to vote The Shining is to sheep Half the Sky and rsoultin. From my experience, both are very good players, and they think that The Shining is mafia. They have also kept up with the thread better than I have. Is he saying he's basically townreading WW, LS and Shining? But due to not being caught up, he's going to sheep Rsoultin and HTS? It explains his ##Vote: The Shining+ Show Spoiler +
I realize that the timing of this vote switch seems really bad. I am still suspicious of LightningStrike, and am perfectly fine to explain why I voted for him in the first place. The primary explanation is that I wanted somewhere to place my vote, in case something happened and I didn't end up moving it by the deadline (I know that I am town, so I will take a ~25% chance of lynching scum over a 100% chance of a town!Trfel being modkilled, and a vote is easy to move). The reason I voted for LightningStrike is because he asked a lot of generic questions ("Hey you, what are your reads, with explanations please"). I don't remember him doing much questioning in the past, but I could be wrong. Still, asking primarily generic questions makes it seem even more like he is trying to appear useful while really doing nothing. In addition, he likes to use pretty fast meta reads, and didn't provide reads on any of the people he has played with before for quite some time. I feel that it was longer than I am used to.
Anyway, those are my thoughts at the moment. I'm switching votes to The Shining. Meanwhile, I will start looking into other lynch options (open to suggestions), and will be waiting for feedback and pushes.
I'm getting the impression that Trfel basically townreads TheWarWaffle, LightningStrike, and The Shining. He soft defends them but also talks about how he hasn't really read the thread, is not super confident in reads etc. He's not going to waste his vote so he knows he needs to be on a legitimate wagon (unlike Gumdrops on ExO_ for instance). Presumably, he sheeps his strongest townreads Rsoutlin and Half the Sky.
Moral of the story, if The Shining or LightningStrike are mafia, then one of Rsoultin, Half The Sky, or ExO_ would be dead. I don't see a world where they would nk Trfel. My bad play murdered a claimed role so I think it would be stupid to nk me.
And for the love of God, when I ask you what you think about my case/thoughts be more forceful on why I'm wrong. We fucking killed a blue. The only person who really articulated it being bad was Trfel. No one on WarWaffle moved. Even after the claim, people still said it was a probable fake claim. WarWaffles play was so scummy most of you disregarded his claim. None of you thought the lynch was bad enough to do a yelling all caps post telling us we are idiots for lynching a town/blue.
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That is not a bad post there, Tube. Trfel was reluctant on all the wagons, but didn't have a better option to present the thread Day 1. I still think he could have been targeted as a possible role...but I'm not nearly as comfortable with a Shining lynch as I was earlier because his play has improved significantly, despite the lying at EoD.
Also @Shining...I'm not really ruling out anyone on being possible scum based on a flip right now. I'm just saying I probably would automatically look to LS if you flip scum. Not that I think you flipping town clears him. His play troubles me. The main reason I'm not 100% sold on him being scum is his scum game (if this is a scum game for him) has gotten much less timid since the last time when I pushed his lynch.
Tube...you're talking about why you think Trfel was killed, suggesting that LS and to a lesser extent Shining probably aren't scum, but you haven't said anything about who you think is scum. Do you have anyone in mind?
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EPT
