EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXXIII - Page 53
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
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yamato77
11589 Posts
Do you have any thoughts about what I have said so far? | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On December 26 2012 08:36 yamato77 wrote: I'm lurking. Do you have any thoughts about what I have said so far? I agree with most of what you've said, except your read on FatChunk. I'll have my end-of-night post in a couple minutes. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
I think I've been overthinking this game a lot since day one. I've been looking for contradictions and for bad reasoning, but townies mess up too (see: Omni's VT claim). I have drunk deeply of the wine about defending the obvious lynch victim. I have made association cases in my head. It has not got me much of anywhere. Let's go back to the basics. Mafia start with more information than town. It is in the Mafia's best interest to keep town from finding information. Conversely, it is in the Town players' best interests for the Town to gain information. Therefore, Townie players:
By comparison, Scum players:
Scum players may in fact be forced to reveal some information so as to appear townie. They may ask other players questions to appear townie. However, the end goal of a Scum player is NOT to look townie, it is to deny town the information they need to lynch correctly. As such, they will reveal as little information as possible, and their questions are unlikely to have a greater and unifying purpose. One case in particular I'll mention: everyone is obliged to justify their votes, scum or not. Unless the explanation is spectacularly good or bad, the presence of any reasoning behind a vote is null for me generally. So, I've looked at everybody's filters with the following two questions in mind: Is this person willingly revealing his own motivations, reasoning, etc.? Is this person trying to obtain information from other players? No towny player could possibly be satisfied with the discussion so far, day two in particular. Anyone who wasn't attempting to generate more comes under serious suspicion from me. Shz + Show Spoiler + Is Shz willingly revealing his own motivations and reasoning? I'm saying yes to this one, but with the proviso that some of those reasons aren't entirely convincing. The best example of this would be the day 1 post detailing which of a Corazon, FatChunk and Threesr lynch would give the most information. link Lynching for information alone isn't really a good idea, but Shz is providing this insight into his thought process without being prodded. Could be mafia attempting to control the direction of play, but also could be honest town. He also defended Omni with his own ideas, not anyone else's. In hindsight I was a bloody idiot for sheeping on the Omni wagon, his defence and Shz's should have been convincing. I guess my point is here that these could be entirely fabricated thoughts, or they could be genuine. It's hard to tell. His reasons for jumping on the Spag wagon were pretty much nonexistent, but he argued his views strongly on the day two lynch. Is Shz trying to obtain information from other players? Yes. Not a huge amount, but he is asking some questions which lead in interesting directions. Not so many that he couldn't be scum and just making a good show of it, though. Other comments: Considering how much the tide had turned against Omni in day two, it would take a mafia player with some balls to stand by his defence of Omni. Again, it's not implausible that scum Shz could do this, but it's not the easy route (though beyond a certain point, turning on Omni would have looked very suspicious). He didn't make any other cases for the lynch, though. (otoh, towards the end he was only talking to Omni, Chromatic (who was shouting "Shz-Omni scum team!") and myself, who would he have made a case to?) Also, Shz was probably the next most likely lynch after Omni, so why would Shz defend Omni if Shz were scum? Just too much of Shz scum wouldn't make sense. Summary: Weak town read. This is the hardest read for me. Cakepie + Show Spoiler + Is Cakepie willingly revealing his own motivations, reasoning, etc.? Yes. So... much... text. Is Cakepie trying to obtain information from other players? Yes. Not a huge amount, and not much of it's on his scumreads I think. But it's there. Other comments: Scum would have to be really, really enthusiastic to post this much volume in this game. Summary: Town. Kickstart + Show Spoiler + Is Kickstart willingly revealing his own motivations and reasoning? Not a whole lot. He did give the beginnings of a case on Shz, but his case is the kind of half-assed thing I'd expect scum to make to put suspicion on a townie. It rests on Shz' failure to justify his votes and nothing else. Other than that, Kick has only given information about his motives when directly asked. Even if he has very little time, I'd have expected him to push the Shz case harder if he believed it as much as he's said. Personally, there's no way I was confident enough on a scum read day 2 to just park all my suspicions and vote at the start of day 2 then leave, without even a pretence at pressuring anyone else. Is Kickstart trying to obtain information from other players? Nope. He didn't fish for reactions to the Shz case, he hasn't prodded anyone else... Other comments: Lurky as all hell. TBH is probably real life interfering. But there's no excuse for his failure to push his reads, 1-page filter or not. I want to emphasise this: even if you ignore his filter length, Kick's posting this game is unconstructive and not anything like I'd expect from him as town. There's an element of questioning which is just absent. This reminds me of his XXXI scum play - his activity was a lot better there, but again he tunneled hard on one person (esp. day 1) and didn't really pursue anything else. A quick readthrough of XXXII gave me a different impression of him, I think he was more investigative there - Syl and Yamato would be better suited to confirm this. Kick's tolerance for the poor town play this game is INCREDIBLY uncharacteristic of him. Summary: Very likely scum. And not only because his filter is less than a page. Chromatically + Show Spoiler + Is Chromatic willingly revealing his own motivations, reasoning, etc.? Yes. Posted a lot of the stuff what got Omni lynched (and, despite being wrong, I think it was good reasoning), and made his read on Shz very clear as well without prompting. Is Chromatic trying to obtain information from other players? Yes. Asks a fair few questions. Just read his filter. Other comments: I keep finding Chromatic posting the same thoughts I was having. I thought this about Sonic Death Monkey in XXXI - he was blindingly obvious town and got NKd night one and night two. Also, I've played against Chromatic scum - and this just doesn't feel like it. Unless his scum meta has changed dramatically in less than a month of obsing games, I can't see this as scum at all. And let's face it, if Chromatic was scum he'd have stopped pushing the town along a while ago. Summary: Town. cDgCorazon + Show Spoiler + Is Corazon willingly revealing his own motivations, reasoning, etc.? Yes. Corazon's reasoning has been out in the open all game, I think. Some of it, especially day 1, was not particularly good (his vote for me, "defending himself", jumps to mind here) but his reasons were out in the open. Is Corazon trying to obtain information from other players? Yes. Pushes Orange and Chromatic early day 2. Not so much day one, but given the circumstances that's understandable (if not ideal). Other comments: My gut read on Corazon's play is a rookie walking into day 1, drawing a lot of heat and losing his nerve. Talks to coaches over night 1, comes back with much, much better play. Summary: Rookie town. Became a much better player day 2 IMO. Orangeremi + Show Spoiler + Is Orangeremi willingly revealing his own motivations, reasoning, etc.? Nope. He's basically posted nothing unless asked a direct question. Is Orangeremi trying to obtain information from other players? Nope. Like I said, practically all he's posted are answers to questions for him. Other comments: No-lynch votes are null for me. Newby scum and newbie town can both not know why this isn't a good idea. Summary: Lurky scum. FatChunk + Show Spoiler + Is FatChunk willingly revealing his own motivations, reasoning, etc.? Very little. As far as I can tell, his only explanatory posts which were not in direct reply to questions or suspicions of him were his end of day one post (which could easily be trying to make points from Spag's green flip) and this post. In which he condemns Omni (who's since flipped town), Shz and Sylencia (for being lurking sheep). The latter are my townreads (not good ones, but still), and why isn't he just as suspicious of Orangeremi? Though he does mention Orangeremi here, I think this is mostly in response to Omni's vote on Orange. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=386911¤tpage=46#909 This post doesn't read town to me. "I'm going to have to vote for Omni tonight because lynching omni gives us the most amount of information"? I mean, there had been association cases drawn between Omni and other players, but really? Is FatChunk trying to obtain information from other players? Nope. No questions for other players, no pressure, nothing. Other comments: Summary: Scum here. + Show Spoiler + Is Threesr willingly revealing his own motivations, reasoning, etc.? Hilariously, yes, while he was playing. I almost wrote "lolnope" without even reading his filter, but I'm glad I did read it. He did keep throwing his vote on different people, and gave his reasons - which is VERY DIFFERENT from parking your vote on your one scumread and not moving it. He's expressing his suspicions and applying pressure. Is Threesr trying to obtain information from other players? Only through his pressure, but that's sufficent really. So yes. I'd be happier if he'd been fishing day 2 (when we really needed some more conversation) but, y'know, he wasn't here. Other comments: I have difficulty picturing a scum player completely flaking day two (unless personal issues came up, I suppose - if so, my apologies). I would certainly judge Yamato's play on its strengths alone. Oh, and this post by Yamato is almost exactly what I am thinking about this game. Town points. Summary: Somehow, I've reached the conclusion that Threesr was quite possibly town, and his day one play wasn't actually complete and utter trash. I'm actually not feeling nearly as angry about Threesr's play as I was (except for the whole "completely flake day two" thing). Sylencia + Show Spoiler + Is Sylencia willingly revealing his own motivations, reasoning, etc.? Yes, though only a little. Though Sylencia's filter is short, there are some posts which both contain information and were spontaneous (i.e. not answers to questions specifically asked). Specific example: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=386911¤tpage=34#673 Scum could have got away with a lot less content than that. Is Sylencia trying to obtain information from other players? No, not really. Other comments: I just can't see scum making this post. On December 24 2012 15:59 Sylencia wrote: ... Now, for day 3 coming - is it possible for the town to vote based on who they think is suspicious first - with some reasoning, followed by defenses and then switching of votes? I feel that in the first 2 days there were quite a few people who said X was their prime suspect but then voted for someone else because they were the majority. Leaving a suspect out of the firing line is the easiest way scum can get through the lynching phase and gives the enemy absolutely no pressure at all. When I read this, I realised it was exactly what I should have thought. And the rest of Sylencia's content just rings true to me. A quick bit of advice, Syl: I think you need to be more assertive to get more attention and response in the thread, if that's what you want. Push people harder. If you're scum, just carry on as you are  Summary: Town, about half this read is gut though. I think we've been searching for complicated solutions to a really quite simple problem. Three lurkers, hiding among the rest of the lurkers, seems to me to be a quite workable answer. After all, there's plenty of cover: Sylencia's been lurking a fair bit, Shz hasn't been a whole lot better (until later day 2) and Threesr disappeared entirely. While it seems a little odd that there wouldn't be at least one active scum on first glance, remember that it is just before Christmas: scum who planned to be active can be sidelined by real life, just the same as townies can. I can well picture a scum-team relying on Kick, say, to direct the town for them, only to discover that he's mostly unavailable. And let's face it, town has done a pretty good job leading ourselves down the garden path. Why should scum interfere? So I think at least two scum, and quite possibly three, are in {Orangeremi, FatChunk, Kickstart}. If more than one of them is town, there's just too much terrible play in this game to be believed (and some very convincing scum play). If there's scum elsewhere, my next guess would be Shz, followed closely by Cakepie and Sylencia. Threesr/Yamato I strongly doubt as scum, but without seeing more of Yamato's play I can't be sure. I'm very confident in Corazon and Chromatic as town. As for which one to lynch first, I really don't know. I feel scum from each of them about the same. But be very sure to lynch one of them. While I think it's *possible* that there's a single scum somewhere else, hunting for a single scum in six players inherently makes less sense than hunting for two or three in three players. If I die, come back in two days, and discover you've lynched Chromatic I will not be pleased. (Unless he flips red, of course, in which case I will be very impressed. But I'm positive he wouldn't.) The lynches on Spaghetticus and Omni made sense to me intellectually, but with these three I feel scum in my bones. While I still don't like association cases before a red flip, here's a couple of things I'll point out in case I die. Call this spoiler a time capsule, and label it "ONLY OPEN IN CASE OF RED FLIP ON KICK/FC/ORANGE" + Show Spoiler +
And in the day one lynch: The final votecount: Spaghetticus (7): Aquanim, OmniEulogy, Mocsta, cakepie, Kickstart, Chromatically, shz cDgCorazon (2): threesr, Sylencia threesr (2): FatChunk, cDgCorazon FatChunk (1): Orangeremi OmniEulogy (1): Spaghetticus Scum votes spread all over the place on a day where none of them are under threat. Check. Aaaand the day two lynch: Final Votecount: Orangeremi (1): OmniEulogy OmniEulogy (7): Orangeremi, cakepie, cDgCorazon, Sylencia, FatChunk, Chromatically, Aquanim shz (1): Kickstart Chromatically (1): shz Not voting (1): threesr Scum votes a little more consolidated on the main target, and Orangeremi was under some pressure early on. Check. It's not that I'm saying "these three are scum on the basis of these associations, lynch them" - I think they're scum individually and there's nothing about their association which wouldn't make sense from scum. In particular, there's nothing here which stops there being a single scum elsewhere. Oh, and an afterthought: none of these three was particularly interested in either lynch. And if there's an SK... well, good luck with that, I suppose | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/FFxF5.jpg) Probably not actually what the killer looked like A young man rushed into the hushed confines of marvellosity's chamber. "My name is Yamato77 sire and I'm here to help you root out those amongst you who are not true believers in our heliocentric world" "Welcome, my son" said marvellosity "we could use your help" Before the gathered astronomers Yamato spoke and said "I accuse you Kickstart and you Orangeremi and maybe even you shz I accuse you all!" The men cheered him, and marvellosity patted him on the back. That night when the astronomers slept a dark figure crept into their sleeping quarters and quietly slit Yamato's throat. "you were getting too popular" he whispered as he slipped away into the night. Yamato as the Renaissance Man has been killed you have 48 hours to lynch, flips have been added to the OP. Best of luck and merry Christmas! | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
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yamato77
11589 Posts
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Aquanim
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Aquanim
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cakepie
985 Posts
My understanding of the OP is that roleblockers can target the same person on consecutive nights. Please correct me if I am mistaken about this. Alright guys, out with the roleblocked claims! There may be one more, if all D1 roleblocked claims were indeed true. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
So Cakepie, two questions: - Why Yamato? - What do you think about the issues raised in my wall above? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
I have had (not) enough of this guy. I don't like the notion of trying to apply meta in a newbie game, since people could be experimenting with playstyles, but he himself has thrown around his track record a couple of times: + Show Spoiler + On December 22 2012 06:36 Kickstart wrote: If you didn't expect that sort of post from me than you don't know how I normally post ^^. On December 22 2012 16:27 Kickstart wrote:check my games if you like But his posting here, while stylistically similar in the way he writes, pales in comparison to his other filters in terms of both volume and substance. Is he merely settling in with the lurky environment, or actually fostering it? The former is unlikely for a townie kickstart, he knows better than to do that: On December 19 2012 17:05 Kickstart wrote: [...] That kind of ties in with the "what would mafia do thing", my answer to that is they would try to blend in, so it is imperative that we as town generate meaningful discussion and that EVERYONE contributes (no one lurks) so that we have plenty of information to work with for everyone and we make it difficult for the scum to blend in. [...] DON'T LURK, LURKING BAD. His posts are so few we can easily summarize them in a dozen or so points: + Show Spoiler + 1. Policy fluff 2. uninformative answer to and uninformative question 3. asks FatChunk for more reasoning on threesr 4. "nothing much to add"; looking for scum on threesr wagon 5. onto the spaghetticus train 6. responds to chromatically question by spag > FC on basis of volume of posts available to develop a "solid read" --- end D1 --- 7. Shz case 8. retort against "did not expect that sort of post from you" --- end N1 --- 9. Flips out on my early pressure vote, calls me out for blue claim? 10. responds to my denial of a blue claim !!. conspicuously quiet despite being invited to scrutinize further 11. sticks to Shz case with no new arguments, conveniently talks about threesr -- not informative, but tries to cast threesr as scummier lurker than himself 12. has nothing useful to add about me when asked about it, other than not liking my posting. - And then a few short, uninformative posts - refuses to provide more ("I wrote what I thought about SHZ already") - Shz vote, because "nothing changed for me" Compared to other lurkers, he comes across as being very measured about how much he posts. Almost as if he was carefully making sure to stay ahead of the lurkiest. He has made only one case and has not been forthcoming at all about his other suspicions, unlike most other players who have been willing to talk about bits of suspicions even in the absence of enough for a solid case. He has been selective in answering questions directed at him. In particular, anything asking for a read or even to elaborate on suspicions has been ignored or rebuffed. In (9)-(10) he reacts because of a vote, and perhaps due to the "blue claim" that he perceived? Why does he care so much about a lone pressure vote so early in D2? And why would he read this hard into my posts to find a blue claim that was not even there? Surely he is the sort who would read the OP carefully. He conveniently slinks back into the shadows with my vote taken off, and wrong about the hasty "blue-tell". This was my mistake, in hindsight. I think it can be best summarized by this: On December 22 2012 06:36 Kickstart wrote:I am easy lurker lynch-bait for mafia to role with at this point. This is no coincidence. By staying in "lynch-bait" territory he has positioned himself so that he can counter any lynch attempt by being "just sufficiently active", and can fend off any suspicion or scrutiny by pointing to any number of other candidates. Conveniently, Kickstart himself would rather "push scum reads over policy lynches", so as long as he can find someone to target as scummy. This he has done so, but offering one target, and no more than that. And unlike others who may admit that it is hard for them to have strong reads, he has flat out refused to share any suspicions beyond one case. This is in spite the position that town is in, where we must look to the smallest suspicions in the hope of a beginnings of a case with which more pressure can be applied. Too convenient. This is still a pressure vote for now, but it is a far more serious pressure vote then before -- it comes with enough FoS that I am willing to turn this into a lynch. It is backed by even more unsatisfactory contribution from you in D2, and not just D1. I will not be easily bullied out of it this time. Give us substance and so establish your townie-ness, or scum you be. ##Vote: Kickstart | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
##Vote: Kickstart This substance had better be really good. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
FoS: Orangeremi FoS: FatChunk If Kickstart somehow manages to convince me he is town, you are next. Get in here and start posting, pressuring and hunting. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 26 2012 09:24 Aquanim wrote: #notaroleblockclaim So Cakepie, two questions: - Why Yamato? - What do you think about the issues raised in my wall above? ----- Yamato brought very useful fresh perspectives and clarity of thought to a town that was getting muddled by equally lousy looking lurker lynches, and brought fresh conviction where we are getting perhaps too wary of mislynching. Perhaps he came too close with his reads? I don't think this was an attempt to off a blue role, because threesr's play hardly supports a blue hypothesis. Rather, it suggests that Yamato was seen as a big threat -- much bigger than any of us original players -- who could establish solid town cred and lead a strong and correct lynch. In fact, even before Yamato started posting much, I had already shifted him from null- to mildly town, since threesr hardly had any reason to ragequit out as scum (he would be doing a fantastic job being the bus candidate). It says a lot to me that the scum team felt that it was more useful to kill Yamato now, as opposed to, say, you (aqua), chrom, cora, or even myself, who have been more active over the duration of the game. =/ <--- I cannot overstate this enough: they don't fear us as much as Yamato coming into the game fresh. ----- I haven't had a chance to digest your wall yet, will get to it after I grab some breakfast. Feel free to leave other questions in the meantime. | ||
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
Yamato seemed to back up my thoughts on Kickstart playing the opposite game to his usual, which is not something I would expect - so for now my vote goes to Kickstart since he was my 2nd most suspicious player after Omni. ##Vote Kickstart | ||
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