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@Sylencia
What's worse:
1. mislynch kick and scum shz remains in the game, or
2. mislynch shz and scum kick remains in the game
(this by no means implies that I think only one of them is scum)
Also:
On December 26 2012 19:30 Sylencia wrote:
Danger of leaving him really depends on how much information we can get out from voting someone else - at the current moment it'll probably be shz or FC.
Please explain: why would the information gain from some other lynch affect the threat level of a scum kickstart left alive for another day?
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First one is worse, because shz has more influence in the town, and the reason why it depends on what happens from another lynch is because either we'll get some sort of idea who is scum from the deaths, or the scum will mislead town by pointing out things which don't exist. So as an example, say I suspect X, and I have been an active roleplayer throughout this game (I haven't been, but let's say I have). X was one of the first votes for me, and suddenly the scum are suspecting he was pushing for a mislynch and then X gets targetted the next day. In this case, Kick just gets a free pass to live, and everyone jumps on X. Now, there's not too many people who could get lynched where this situation would probably occur, but there's always a chance that Kick can get by just by lynching.
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@Sylencia anything for me before I call it a night?
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@cakepie
My lynch candidate will depend a lot on how they act today. This is why I don't think that we should form a consensus on Kick too early, FC and Orange need to post too. Right now my ordering is Kick ==> FC ==> Orange, but that will change.
What I see in FatChunk:
He's disappeared when the pressure is off of him, which is troubling. He posted a lot of fluff that didn't really help at the beginning of the game, but hasn't done anything since then. He resisted the Spag lynch hardcore, possibly trying to look good after the flip, and jumped on the Omni wagon, specifically lynching for information. This specific post feels weird:
On December 23 2012 06:15 FatChunk wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2012 09:08 cakepie wrote:
I was roleblocked. With Mocsta's flip I feel that it is thus more likely that this comes from Robert Bellarmine (scum RB) than Martin Luther (town RB). I'm just curious, why would you assume it's scum RB? ...
The way that he prefaces his question with "I'm just curious" makes it sound like he's trying hard to distance himself from the scum rb. If he is the scum rb, he would be nervous about being too curious about the roleblocks. I know that I (and several other players) would just directly ask him the question, using curiosity as an excuse feels bad.
Like the Kickstart posts, not a dealbreaker, just something that felt weird.
I'm really waiting for the lurkers to start posting.
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I feel like we need to make the lynch question today "Who is the safest lynch today?". I feel we have gotten a bit off-track from this. It seems like when we made a mistake and lynched a townie on D1, everyone sort of panicked and jumped on OE's erratic (but not lurky) play style.
We need to go back to our roots and find the player who is most likely to be scum. The scum are afraid to put any direction to the town, meaning that their posts should not be very helpful, and their votes should really either not help the town, or hurt the town.
While kick's activity D1 was okay, he has kind of not done anything since. He put in a weak vote for Shz to make it look like he did not agree with the OE lynch, meaning that he would have been in a better position for town brownie points. While it sounded like a good idea, 6 people voted for OE, and not all of them can be scum.
He has given us no new leads, no new information, no points of view, no anything that would be remotely helpful to the town. He has been lurking in the shadows for most of the game. I feel like Kick's lynch is the safest because his lurking is the most black and white out of all of the candidates. Some have popped in and out, but kick has consistently been hiding since the end of D1.
He is the safest lynch because the only thing we have to lose with lynching kick is numbers. He is of no value to the town, and does not look to have any value going forward. He is the safest lynch today, and the most likely to be scum. If he is not, then he is a bad town and slimming down the odds of who is scum is more valuable right now than anything he has contributed.
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We still need to remember to lynch whoever will probably flip scum. We have two tries to get a scum lynch, and a successful lynch tomorrow will be nearly impossible. Lynching Kick because he's the most lurky isn't good, we need to lynch the scummiest lurker. This very well could be Kick, of course, but we shouldn't lynch on activity alone at this point.
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To me, their activity levels (Kick, Orange, and Shz) are all kind of at the same point. However, Shz has shown slightly more promise with some of his recent posts.
You guys have said it: kick's lack of activity is not a trademark of his town play. If he was only inactive for a couple of days around Christmas, that would be ok. However, he has basically been a non-factor in the scumhunt since D1.
In my mind, it is Orange or Kick. I would be happy with lynching either of them today, and the other one next. They both have not stepped up enough to the scumhunt to be a part of this town.
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On December 27 2012 01:25 cDgCorazon wrote:
To me, their activity levels (Kick, Orange, and Shz) are all kind of at the same point. However, Shz has shown slightly more promise with some of his recent posts.
You guys have said it: kick's lack of activity is not a trademark of his town play. If he was only inactive for a couple of days around Christmas, that would be ok. However, he has basically been a non-factor in the scumhunt since D1.
In my mind, it is Orange or Kick. I would be happy with lynching either of them today, and the other one next. They both have not stepped up enough to the scumhunt to be a part of this town.
I've already said this: Kick's lack of activity is not a trademark of any of his play. His meta does not support this play from either alignment, it's a null point.
Why not FatChunk?
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On December 26 2012 14:45 cDgCorazon wrote:
##Vote:Kickstart
I also feel like everyone needs to contribute to the scum hunt. Everyone needs to be all-in at this point. Lurking is absolutely not acceptable at this point. I would additionally like for the contributions to be toward the scum hunt and giving us new information, not just summarizing things or giving ambiguous posts. For that reason:
FOS: FatChunk
FOS: Shz
FOS: OrangeRemi
On December 26 2012 15:57 cDgCorazon wrote:
My most suspicious people, in order, are as follows:
-Kick
-Orange
-FatChunk (I feel like while he has given some reads, his activity level has been sub-par. However, less sub-par than the above two)
-Shz (Activity level has increased quite a bit since the start of Day 2, but has not given very many clear opinions on other players. The list was somewhat helpful, but in reality only organized info and did not give out much new info.)
I feel like FatChunk has contributed slightly more than the above two. While his contributions have not been the best or the most logical, he has given us his reads and his views on a few people. In my eyes, that makes him slightly more valuable to the town. Compared to the other two:
Kick- Jumped on the Spag wagon (however, his reasoning was very solid on this one), and has basically disappeared ever since. Almost 0 contribution
Orange- Given us nothing, except saying that he has "a few scum reads". Inactive until Day 2. Again, almost 0 contribution.
I feel like one of these two should be lynched today, and the other one lynched tomorrow if they do not step up and contribute to the scumhunt. Then, I feel like we should take a closer look at FC and Shz.
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Okay, I do think that FC has contributed more than Orange. I don't think that Orange is playing like scum as much as FC is.
Orange:
On December 24 2012 02:37 Orangeremi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2012 02:11 OmniEulogy wrote:
##Vote: Orangeremi The only "active" lurker throughout the game who hasn't made a case on anybody in nearly 100 hours. I'd like to argue that I haven't made a case in over 100. All game, even.
Why did you post this?
Still waiting for our lurkers to come out with who they want to lynch...
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On December 27 2012 04:30 Chromatically wrote:
Okay, I do think that FC has contributed more than Orange. I don't think that Orange is playing like scum as much as FC is.
Maybe because Orange is more of a mystery. FC has posted reads and opinions, and from those actions you get suspicious. Orange hasn't done everything. Could it be that you are less sure of Orange's scumminess because you do not have much to observe his actions off of?
Orange could be sitting back in the shadows and confusing actions to town because he wants the chaotic environment to thrive, and that he is hoping to fly under the radar because there are others whose actions have already look scummy than his. Hard to read someone that doesn't give you any useful information to work with.
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He's posted pretty safe opinions, and his votes especially have been super safe (voted threesr and Omni when the heat was on them). Orange isn't even trying to blend in, FC definitely could be. FC also posted when there was pressure on him, but disappeared soon after, something I find suspicious. Some things that Orange says don't really show a scum mindset to me. I'd like to hear Orange post before I go on about those, though.
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In my opinion, FatChunk has said very little all game except when directly asked, directly pressured, or justifying a vote.
Still waiting on FC or Kick to say anything. And this is Orange's only contribution:
On December 26 2012 18:51 Orangeremi wrote:
Apparently I've been roleblocked.
I'm gonna read up on the thread, be back soon.
He never came back. Confirmation bias tells me there's only one explanation for this.
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On December 26 2012 15:42 cakepie wrote:
OrangeRemi: Please play the devil's advocate, and try to knock holes in the arguments against shz laid out by Kickstart, myself and others. Are there good townie hypotheses that would explain how he voted? What of his early D2 defense of Omni, which ceased despite the lynch gaining momentum? Does this give you a overall town vibe or scum vibe on him?
I found it difficult to knock any holes in the case. As town, starting the game with a vote for someone is a great way to trigger discussion and get things off in the right direction. Very possibly his intention. I see no townie explanation for the way he voted Corazon, possibly laziness. With Spag, he just hopped on the wagon. Nothing special for scum or town. And I think his vote for Chrom is justified to throw another opinion/point of view on the table (although rather poorly, not that I'm one to talk.)
I don't understand why he would give up on defending Omni. His defense was perfectly sound, especially when Omni flipped town.
Overall, I'd suppose a scum vibe. Although looking over his posts it wasn't at all my initial thought. His post voting for Chrom seemed townie to me, and his more recent advocation to go after lurkers seems so as well.
On December 27 2012 04:30 Chromatically wrote:Orange: Show nested quote +On December 24 2012 02:37 Orangeremi wrote:On December 24 2012 02:11 OmniEulogy wrote:
##Vote: Orangeremi The only "active" lurker throughout the game who hasn't made a case on anybody in nearly 100 hours. I'd like to argue that I haven't made a case in over 100. All game, even. Why did you post this?
Good question. Looking back, it's rather pointless. I suppose I just wanted it to be accurate that I haven't posed a case towards anyone. I don't know why.
On December 27 2012 06:47 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On December 26 2012 18:51 Orangeremi wrote:
Apparently I've been roleblocked.
I'm gonna read up on the thread, be back soon. He never came back. Confirmation bias tells me there's only one explanation for this.
Something tells me confirmation bias would be wrong.
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So, Orange, who do you think we should be lynching today?
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PS: I really shouldn't have had to ask that question.
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On December 27 2012 08:08 Aquanim wrote:
So, Orange, who do you think we should be lynching today?
Yes Orange, would you like to give us actual opinions for the first time in the game?
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On December 27 2012 08:08 Aquanim wrote:
So, Orange, shz, Kickstart, and FatChunk, who do you think we should be lynching today?
FTFY
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What do we do if none of them give an answer?
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EPT
