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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
If you are town, your behaviour doesn't make sense to me for the reasons I described above, but if you were scum/SK I think you'd try to blend in a little bit more, or at least try to do something instead of complaining the minute you replace into the game, and do nothing at all and even acknowledge that Hmm, any thoughts on this people? Rad/Grey/Wiggles what do you specifically think of prphlz's behaviour and how it would fit in as scum/SK behaviour? | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On June 17 2012 06:22 gonzaw wrote: So your "scum+SK" list would be something like this then?: Scum: Palmar prplhz SK: Radfield My list for now would be like this: Scum: Palmar BrownBear SK: prplhz I'd go more into detail why I get the feeling BB is scum, but I want to lynch Palmar first and not distract town. Yeah, the SK I feel is one of Rad or GreY. How strongly do you feel prplhz is the SK though? I feel very strongly that he's mafia, but if you think he's the SK as well, it might be good to lynch him. The SK hasn't shot yet, so that means that there's two options to limit the KP against us. I'm going to do a little analysis of how we should lynch. The first option is to lynch both mafia consecutively today and tomorrow. Then: We kill 1 mafia, 1 mafia left. Mafia shoot tonight, 1 KP. We kill the last mafia, 0 mafia left. Then there's only the SK KP left over. 2 KP total that can hit the town. There's also the chance that scum hit the SK which could help us because it will block a KP. The other option is to lynch the SK today and then both scum. Lynch the SK. Mafia shoot, 1 KP. Lynch a mafia Mafia shoot, 1 KP. Lynch the last mafia, win. Both of these rely on being fairly certain of who the two scum are. For example, if we did something like lynch a mafia today, and then the SK tomorrow, we would lose. Right now it's 4-2-1. If we lynch scum today, but both SK and mafia hit town, then: 4-1-1 2-1-1 Then we need to lynch mafia to remove their kp: 2-0-1 Then lynch the SK. 2-0-0 If we hit SK instead of mafia: 2-1-0 1-1-0 after hits. If SK hits mafia after a mafia lynch: 3-0-1 Which puts us in a good position 4-0-1 if the mafia also hit the SK If mafia hit the SK after a mafia lynch, SK hits town: 2-1-1 or 2-0-1 In the first case, we need to hit the mafia to get rid of his KP, case 2 is LYLO. So, if we lynch mafia today, we must hit the other mafia tomorrow if the SK shoots town. So, we have to be sure of and agree on, who the second mafia is in the majority of cases, as lynching the SK could result in a loss. Now, if instead we hit the SK today, it will go: 4-2-0 3-2-0 after hits 3-1-0 lynch 1 mafia 2-1-0 next round of hits 2-0-0 lynch the second mafia If we hit the SK, we need to do a 1-2 hit on both scum with our lynches. So, lynching prplhz could be the best move today. I think he's mafia, you think he's the SK, but we both agree that he's scum. If we lynch him and he flips mafia, we just lynch Palmar tomorrow, and then hunt for the SK. If he flips SK, we still lynch Palmar, and then we look for the last mafia. Either way though, we don't get into a situation tomorrow where we disagree on who the last mafia is and end up potentially lynching town or the SK and then losing. What do you think? ##Vote: prplhz | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [About SK] + One thing about the SK is that if we misslynch today (I doubt it...but anything can happen), he can "help" us by shooting scum tonight so both town and SK have a chance to win in a 2-1 LYLO later. Kind of like this D3: 4-2-1 Misslynch N3: 3-2-1 If scum shoot town and SK doesn't shoot: D4: 2-2-1 Here scum can easily get the SK/town lynched, making it N4: 1-2-1 or 2-2 In #1 they shoot the remaining townie, the SK would shoot at scum (may miss and shoot the townie), and immediately vote for the SK as soon as the day begins (or if that doesn't count it's a draw). In #2 SK instantly loses. Even if in D4: 2-1-1 town+SK join together to lynch a scum, it would become 2-1-1, and 1-1-1 or 1s-1sk if the night shots go in a certain order, which means the SK would still not win (for him to win he'd need scum to shoot a townie and him accurately shooting the scum). The point is that I don't think a 2-2-1 situation would be good or comfortable for the SK, which leads me to: If we misslynch today, the SK should shoot someone he thinks is scum (it shouldn't be too hard for him) However, if in N3, the SK shoots scum, it's something like this: D4: 2-1-1 The SK can help us lynch the remaining scum, leaving us in a D5: 2-1 LYLO with the SK If we lynch the SK we'll be in 2 LYLOs in a row, and I don't like that. I want to lynch scum today, and as time goes by I get more confident Palmar is scum by him not showing up or acting satisfactorily. Wiggles, what do you thing about prplhz behaviour up there? And what about that question I presented to you guys in the top of the page? prplhz seems to just not care about anything right now, do you find that compatible with him being scum or SK? In what scenario? | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Today we lynch Palmar, he flips scum. Tomorrow we lynch prplhz: -If he's scum, we hunt for the SK -If he's SK, we figure out who the remaining scum is. Do you think Palmar may be town? Or even SK? If not then we lynch him. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
I think prplhz is SK, you think prplhz is scum. Why isn't Palmar a better lynch by that reasoning of yours? | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
gonzaw is not scum and no matter if he is SK or town he wants to lynch scum today. He's also putting in quite a bit of effort so maybe he's right. Palmar isn't doing much and I don't really have a huge town read on him. He just seemed townie when I read the game. Anyway, lets just roll with this Palmar lynch today. I'm just going to sheep gonzaw on an opinion I don't really agree with but that's how it's going to be for now. ##Vote: Palmar If gonzaw is scum then gg wp. You should try replacing into a game where everybody thinks you're scum by default, it's not really all that fun. | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
On June 17 2012 08:30 prplhz wrote: Okay screw that. gonzaw is not scum and no matter if he is SK or town he wants to lynch scum today. He's also putting in quite a bit of effort so maybe he's right. Palmar isn't doing much and I don't really have a huge town read on him. He just seemed townie when I read the game. Anyway, lets just roll with this Palmar lynch today. I'm just going to sheep gonzaw on an opinion I don't really agree with but that's how it's going to be for now. ##Vote: Palmar If gonzaw is scum then gg wp. You should try replacing into a game where everybody thinks you're scum by default, it's not really all that fun. Its LyLo, now is not the time to sheep votes you don't believe in. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On June 17 2012 08:44 Mr. Wiggles wrote: The point is that if we lynch mafia today there are situations where we must lynch the other mafia tomorrow. If we dont we lose. We disagree about the last mafia, so that means we could lynch the wrong one. Lynching prp assures that we either have both scum, or that we have two cycles to find the last one. What youre saying to do is wrong because it relies entirely on the actions of the mafia and the sk. Youre taking the power out of our hands and putting it into scums which is dumb. My plan works in all possible scenarios regardless of what kind of scum prp flips as and regardless of what actions scum take tonight. Yours relies on the sk or mafia taking certain actions so that we dont lose Wait..how does lynching scum today "relies on the sk or mafia taking certain actions so that we don't lose"? If the SK shoots a townie tonight? I doubt the SK is that stupid, unless he's in great danger of getting lynched instead of scum or something, but then again if that was the case he'd have the chance of getting lynched in that 2-1-1 situation you mentioned. I think having a "safe" lynch on prplhz because maybe the SK shoots a townie tonight and maybe scum shoot a different townie tonight and maybe the SK gets himself lynched or we misslynch a townie on D4, then we'd lose. Palmar is scum, we lynch scum, end of story. I'm actually not that convinced on prplhz either, I'm not convinced he's scum...and to be honest I'm not that convinced he's SK either because of his behaviour (nobody answered that questions I posed above, explain prplhz' behaviour to me from a SK or scum perspective). On June 17 2012 08:30 prplhz wrote: Okay screw that. gonzaw is not scum and no matter if he is SK or town he wants to lynch scum today. He's also putting in quite a bit of effort so maybe he's right. Palmar isn't doing much and I don't really have a huge town read on him. He just seemed townie when I read the game. Anyway, lets just roll with this Palmar lynch today. I'm just going to sheep gonzaw on an opinion I don't really agree with but that's how it's going to be for now. ##Vote: Palmar If gonzaw is scum then gg wp. You should try replacing into a game where everybody thinks you're scum by default, it's not really all that fun. You are not making things any easier. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
I think having a "safe" lynch on prplhz because maybe the SK shoots a townie tonight and maybe scum shoot a different townie tonight and maybe the SK gets himself lynched or we misslynch a townie on D4, which would mean we lose, is not a good plan at all either | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
I'll say this only once: I want to lynch scum, both in succession preferably Palmar is scum →I want Palmar lynched I don't want to follow plans that says "Oh prplhz might be SK in which case even if he was we'd still be in a good position, so lynching that guy who has less chance of flipping scum but could still flip either scum or sk is better than lynching the guy that's basically confirmed mafia" | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
Grey, Rad (BB perhaps) post your thoughts about prplhz and this "plan" of Wiggles. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
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