EPTPersonal risk analysis:
chance ha is mafia: 22-25%
chance ha is mafia given grush flips:44-55%
All of these percentages are based on "as of now"
Newbie Mini Mafia XVI - Page 12
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
KtheZ
United States813 Posts
Personal risk analysis: chance ha is mafia: 22-25% chance ha is mafia given grush flips:44-55% All of these percentages are based on "as of now" | ||
|
The_Zen_Man
Sweden202 Posts
| ||
|
Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
But I'm not really interested in how many percent chance you think it is for him to be scum, rather who you think we should lynch and why. You havn't really said why you think Ha236 looks scummy, only that you think there is a certain possibilty for him to be scum. Also would you be able to lynch into someone like Ha? Or are you only up for a grushlynch atm? | ||
|
Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On June 10 2012 06:46 The_Zen_Man wrote: Did you read my post? I merely posted my opinion on you, i didn't post ask question. But it is good that you answered my imaginary questions. The_Zen_Man : I assumed that those were questions. Why would you ever post it otherwise? You say it's your opinion but basically all you had done was copy paste Ha236 concerns on my post. Like LITTERALY the same post. Except your claim your are just opinions. But it still confuses the shit out of me. I had answered all of his questions. You did not include any of these in your post. why? was it: a) You didn't think the answers were good enough b) You didn't read it c) ??? Since I ''make up my own conclusions which aren't true'' to quote you, I'll let you answer the questions this time. | ||
|
The_Zen_Man
Sweden202 Posts
Then, with your second answer, you argue about the meaning of grush saying "I wouldn't be suprised if the 2 mafia are in those lurkers", which clearly means that he thinks that the mafia might be among the lurkers, not that they are definetly there. And no, it wasn't "LITTERALY" the same post, because if it had been that it would be one and the same. | ||
|
Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On June 10 2012 18:13 The_Zen_Man wrote: Lazermonkey, in my post i wanted to say that i supported ha236 that you made conclusion on grush that were not true, so it was bound to be similliar. I even said that it was what ha said in my post. Ha had already posed questions to you, but your answers were not very good. in one of your answers you agree that " might have been exaggerating a bit", which is basically saying that you were lying. That is not really a good answer. Then, with your second answer, you argue about the meaning of grush saying "I wouldn't be suprised if the 2 mafia are in those lurkers", which clearly means that he thinks that the mafia might be among the lurkers, not that they are definetly there. And no, it wasn't "LITTERALY" the same post, because if it had been that it would be one and the same. The case against The_Zen_Man So instead of writing ''I agree'', you took the time to write the whole case again? Not only is this useless and waste of time, it's also the way scum would play. You make it look like you post stuff of actuall value when it's in fact crap. You said my answers weren't very good. How am I suposed to know that? Because the concern here must lie in that you were unsatisfied with my answers, otherwise why would you post it in the first place? Yes I said I " might have been exaggerating a bit" but you are taking it completly out of context. I don't think you read my post very carefully if you said that. You make it look like I confessed that I lied. If you read the post this is clearly not what I did. You give 100% the exact answer that ha236 did once again here, regarding "I wouldn't be suprised if the 2 mafia are in those lurkers". I have already said what I think about this but still you don't inculde it in your post. Why is this? did you not like this answer either? am I suposed to ''assume this''? I don't get you ZenMan. You tunnel me like no tomorrow. But your cases are all crap. Either they are exact copies of Ha236 or they are over exaggerations and/or lies. None of that is good for town. You think grush is scummy, but you don't add thought behind that at all. You also put soft defense for him all over the place, but is very clear with that you still think he is scummy. You even say we should lynch him and ''then we can think about how to proceed once he flips.''. Bandwagon much? You don't think Ha236 looks scummy at all. You don't give any reasons at all for this. Still he havn't taken any clear stances anywhere? You don't think this is scummy? Is there a possibilty of you two being scumbros prehaps? Tbh you just fucking broke my scummo-o-meter. You don't write cases, at beast you copy them from Ha236, at worst you say things without a singel reference or post to back it up. You try(intentional or not) to pull the action away from both grush and Ha236 by posting crazy cases on me. I am willing to lynch grush or Ha236 if that is the only alternative but right now my suspicion on The_Zen_Man is tenfold my suspicion on those two combined. ##Vote: The_Zen_Man | ||
|
The_Zen_Man
Sweden202 Posts
First of all, i would like to say that i am not making this in respond to Lazermonkey voring on me, but rather that he said that i did not have any ideas of my own. On June 10 2012 19:00 Lazermonkey wrote: The case against The_Zen_Man So instead of writing ''I agree'', you took the time to write the whole case again? Not only is this useless and waste of time, it's also the way scum would play. You make it look like you post stuff of actuall value when it's in fact crap. You said my answers weren't very good. How am I suposed to know that? Because the concern here must lie in that you were unsatisfied with my answers, otherwise why would you post it in the first place? Yes I said I " might have been exaggerating a bit" but you are taking it completly out of context. I don't think you read my post very carefully if you said that. You make it look like I confessed that I lied. If you read the post this is clearly not what I did. You give 100% the exact answer that ha236 did once again here, regarding "I wouldn't be suprised if the 2 mafia are in those lurkers". I have already said what I think about this but still you don't inculde it in your post. Why is this? did you not like this answer either? am I suposed to ''assume this''? I don't get you ZenMan. You tunnel me like no tomorrow. But your cases are all crap. Either they are exact copies of Ha236 or they are over exaggerations and/or lies. None of that is good for town. You think grush is scummy, but you don't add thought behind that at all. You also put soft defense for him all over the place, but is very clear with that you still think he is scummy. You even say we should lynch him and ''then we can think about how to proceed once he flips.''. Bandwagon much? You don't think Ha236 looks scummy at all. You don't give any reasons at all for this. Still he havn't taken any clear stances anywhere? You don't think this is scummy? Is there a possibilty of you two being scumbros prehaps? Tbh you just fucking broke my scummo-o-meter. You don't write cases, at beast you copy them from Ha236, at worst you say things without a singel reference or post to back it up. You try(intentional or not) to pull the action away from both grush and Ha236 by posting crazy cases on me. I am willing to lynch grush or Ha236 if that is the only alternative but right now my suspicion on The_Zen_Man is tenfold my suspicion on those two combined. ##Vote: The_Zen_Man Now i would like to talk about your vote. First you say that i should have just written "i agree" in my post, which is what I basically did, I just referred to Ha236 post. But you seemed to think that i wrote this as my own post, which i did not. Then you later on say that i "tunnel" you, after i have just posted about 2 posts about you. Once again you exaggerate a lot. This is a typical scum play, to make small things seem very big, so that they can build on a case that is not really there. You go on to say that i put "sof defense" for grush. Where have i done this? This seems like a scum move also, fabricating facts that do not exists. I have stated my opinion on grush before. What is also interesting is that not long after ha236 posted about Lazermonkeys's flawed logic and "exaggerating", Solstice came and posted a "case" on ha236, which was imo very weak. Lazermonkey then jumped to this idea. Maybe Solstice and Lazermonkey are scumbros and tried to start a bandwagon? After i posted some more on Lazermonkey where i was suspicous of his post on Grush, he immediatly voted on me to turn the attention to me. This can be a scum move, as they can start to panic and direct the attention elsewhere Lazermonkey later goes on by saying that i pull the action away from grush, but that i am trying to start a bandwagon on him. This is contradictory. Why would i pull the action away from him if i wanted to bandwagon him? I am not going to vote for you because that would be to sink to your level. I prefer to stay calm instead of just voting for the other person, but you did rise on my scum reads. ##Fos: Lazermonkey | ||
|
Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On June 10 2012 20:14 The_Zen_Man wrote:First of all, i would like to say that i am not making this in respond to Lazermonkey voring on me, but rather that he said that i did not have any ideas of my own. That's cool for me.On June 10 2012 20:14 The_Zen_Man wrote: Yes, that's what you should've done in this case. Can you mention even one thing in this post that isn't already in ha236s post?Now i would like to talk about your vote. First you say that i should have just written "i agree" in my post, which is what I basically did, I just referred to Ha236 post. But you seemed to think that i wrote this as my own post, which i did not. On June 10 2012 20:14 The_Zen_Man wrote:Then you later on say that i "tunnel" you, after i have just posted about 2 posts about you. Once again you exaggerate a lot. This is a typical scum play, to make small things seem very big, so that they can build on a case that is not really there. I don't think it's an exaggeration. You've made 7 posts so far(not counting the /in-post).1 is about how you missquoted 1 is about how you think Ha236 is not scum(but this is a crap post as you basically only says that). 1 is your introction post 4 is about me So basically you have two useless posts, 4 about me and one that is not. So 80% of your posts of substance is about me. On June 10 2012 20:14 The_Zen_Man wrote:You go on to say that i put "sof defense" for grush. Where have i done this? This seems like a scum move also, fabricating facts that do not exists. I have stated my opinion on grush before. ##Fos: Lazermonkey First you told Release to ease the pressure on grush. Then you also accused my case against grush of being bad. You are also one of the few people that havn't yet put any pressure on grush. This is ''soft defense'' in my eyes. You havn't said you don't think he is scum but if he flips green then you will be among those who looks least guilty.On June 10 2012 20:14 The_Zen_Man wrote: It's intresting that you keep saying that the case on ha236 is so weak when there are already a couple of people willing to vote for him. Surely there must be at least something with his play that is suspicous? ''Lazermonkey then jumped to this idea. Maybe Solstice and Lazermonkey are scumbros and tried to start a bandwagon?'', so the fact that I thought there were something worth of notice in his post makes us both scum? eh...What is also interesting is that not long after ha236 posted about Lazermonkeys's flawed logic and "exaggerating", Solstice came and posted a "case" on ha236, which was imo very weak. Lazermonkey then jumped to this idea. Maybe Solstice and Lazermonkey are scumbros and tried to start a bandwagon? On June 10 2012 20:14 The_Zen_Man wrote: After i posted some more on Lazermonkey where i was suspicous of his post on Grush, he immediatly voted on me to turn the attention to me. This can be a scum move, as they can start to panic and direct the attention elsewhere Lolwat. This is like the opposite of what I did. Your first posts was insanly strange and with lack of logic. Yet I didn't post a case on you. It was only after you had posted no more than 3 posts against me, all filled with crap that I wrote the actual case. On June 10 2012 20:14 The_Zen_Man wrote: Lazermonkey later goes on by saying that i pull the action away from grush, but that i am trying to start a bandwagon on him. This is contradictory. Why would i pull the action away from him if i wanted to bandwagon him? I don't know, that is for you to decide as you are the scum : ). I can think of plenty of alternatives. This also adds up to my point about your indecisiveness of grush. You pull the action away from him, doesn't push him at all yet you say we should lynch him without giving any alternatives? On June 10 2012 20:14 The_Zen_Man wrote: I am not going to vote for you because that would be to sink to your level. I prefer to stay calm instead of just voting for the other person, but you did rise on my scum reads. ##Fos: Lazermonkey Why so scared of voting me? Why would I write this case if you were a townie? Either admitt your very flawed logic or you should belive that I am scum. You did neither. And you even said earlier in the post that my play was much like scum play and also you thought there was a chance for me and s0Lstice to be scumbros. And yet you don't vote me... I have answered all you questions. You however failed to answer one of mine. Why do you not think Ha236 looks scummy? | ||
|
Vivax
21682 Posts
I opened this thread with the expectation of everyone pointing his finger at me for lurking so heavily the first half of day 1, for which I apologize now. I have had a REALLY shit day yesterday, and I didn't have any motivation whatsoever to get into the internet. I am not very willing to specify what happened yesterday since this is still the internet, I'll just mention that it involved me driving. Now that it's Sunday, I can lean back a bit, gonna have quite some shit going on from tomorrow on, but I feel that I can keep contributing to this game in spite of the circumstances, but don't expect me to be online whenever you are. Oh, and you should also know where I'm located to know the times I'm posting at: Austria/CET. Time to start Top-down: Like I already mentioned, I expected everyone to suspect me cause of policy lynching. Surprisingly, that's not the case. The policy talk quickly resulted into Release squeezing grush like a lemon throughout the game, but grush results to be a pretty dry one, just releasing unjuicy drops which only help to fortify the suspicions against him. Frankly I think Release has a really aggressive playstyle reminding me of my own last game, it's a great way to gain transparent information from other people and to a lesser extent from the accused ones, but also involves risks of all kind. The subsequent posts regaridng this case all revolve around the initial posts as tells. My verdict is: Release looks like he's tunneling pretty hard with the aggressive style, on the other hand I have to give him credit for getting out so much information from this case, town really IS busy due to this. Grush, well, if he's town I would be able to understand his somewhat angry, resignated answers as follow-up. If he's scum I would also be able to understand his high amount of one-liners with the least possible amount of information. However, his first posts really weren't helpful to town, so I'll treat him as suspicious, but not definitely guilty. I feel it's too early for me to cast a vote on him, he kind of reminds me of + Show Spoiler + superouman If he's the only alternative to a No lynch, you'll have my vote nontheless. I'm going to post more very soon, I'd prefer to keep my posts focused on single cases since I have to post a lot at once. | ||
|
ha236
Sweden36 Posts
It's intresting that you keep saying that the case on ha236 is so weak when there are already a couple of people willing to vote for him. Surely there must be at least something with his play that is suspicous? ''Lazermonkey then jumped to this idea. Maybe Solstice and Lazermonkey are scumbros and tried to start a bandwagon?'', so the fact that I thought there were something worth of notice in his post makes us both scum? eh... This part stands out to me. You're basing your suspiscion on the fact that solstice and Release have said so? I might have misunderstood this but the reason people think I'm suspicious is because I've softly defended grush. If I havn't allready let me go over it again; I don't think grush is scum. In my opinion there is not enough information to decide this, basically the only thing grush has posted about is trying to defend himself against Release's relentless nitpicking of his posts. I've said it before and I'll say it again, you overestimate the value of that conversation. Anyone in their right minds understands that encouraging the rest of the players to not post (not exposing any information) so you're stuck at square one for the whole game pretty much labels you as mafia instantly. It's way to simple to lynch him because of this. He felt obligied to defend himself since he didn't want to end up in the situation (that he's in now anyway) where he's look suspicious because he hasn't answered peoples questions. | ||
|
Vivax
21682 Posts
s0lstice prefers to go on with policy discussion in the first posts and goes on with it until he outs for the night. When he's back, he completely drops grush and the policy discussion and puts his FoS on ha2etc. Release thinks grush is guilty. Pretty much everyone agreed on grushs post about 'nothing to discuss' being a really bad suggestion for town play. Many dropped the case or defended grush in spite of this. KtheZ notices the overconfidence of Release against grush and points out the danger of tunneling. But he also believes grush to have made scummy moves. I find his semi-calculations pretty strange tbh, but I guess it's his way of FoSing. ShiaoPi has one post in which he says people should stop tunneling grush and instead pressure ha2etc. . What strikes me here is that he wants to pressure ha2etc. for actually defending grush. I find this to be contradictory. Lazermonkey notices grush's suspicious posts and focuses on the people defending him in consequence after placing his FoS on grush. ha2etc. soft-defends grush. The_Zen_Man soft-defends grush. I'm keeping my summary of the swedes in this thread rather short cause there are complex cases developing around them and I think these deserve an in-depth analysis before a summary. | ||
|
grush57
Korea (South)2582 Posts
On June 10 2012 16:23 KtheZ wrote: ha: I've looked through his posts and, besides a soft defense of grush, he doesn't appear that scummy to me. Personal risk analysis: chance ha is mafia: 22-25% chance ha is mafia given grush flips:44-55% All of these percentages are based on "as of now" K, we all know ha is mafia and that post pretty much tells who the scum team is. Besides defending a suspicious player and being very suspicious, he isn't scummy to me. Random ass numbers. He isn't making a bold move and a clear opinion on things. Very scummy. As town you have to stick to your guns like Release.That's why Release is my only 100% town read. Also, all the people somewhat defending me right now are town as well, as I know I'm town. The mafia are going to push me as I'm the most suspicious and somewhat defending Ha like KtheZ is. | ||
|
Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On June 10 2012 21:56 ha236 wrote: No, that's not really what I meant. I find it odd that The_Zen_Man is able to say that the case against you were weak, without a singel motivation even though there are people willing to lynch into you for that. This part stands out to me. You're basing your suspiscion on the fact that solstice and Release have said so? I might have misunderstood this but the reason people think I'm suspicious is because I've softly defended grush. If I havn't allready let me go over it again; I don't think grush is scum. In my opinion there is not enough information to decide this, basically the only thing grush has posted about is trying to defend himself against Release's relentless nitpicking of his posts. I've said it before and I'll say it again, you overestimate the value of that conversation. Anyone in their right minds understands that encouraging the rest of the players to not post (not exposing any information) so you're stuck at square one for the whole game pretty much labels you as mafia instantly. It's way to simple to lynch him because of this. He felt obligied to defend himself since he didn't want to end up in the situation (that he's in now anyway) where he's look suspicious because he hasn't answered peoples questions. | ||
|
Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On June 11 2012 02:31 grush57 wrote: K, we all know ha is mafia and that post pretty much tells who the scum team is. Besides defending a suspicious player and being very suspicious, he isn't scummy to me. Random ass numbers. He isn't making a bold move and a clear opinion on things. Very scummy. As town you have to stick to your guns like Release.That's why Release is my only 100% town read. Also, all the people somewhat defending me right now are town as well, as I know I'm town. The mafia are going to push me as I'm the most suspicious and somewhat defending Ha like KtheZ is. Very bad logic here. If scum smell that a lynch is going your way they could easily put up defense in favor of you. Then if we still misslynch you(assuming you are town now...) they gain town cred for defending you. Also this post contain contradiction. You say Release is 100% town read for you but also that scum would push you because you look suspicous. Release have been the one pushing you hardest this far. How can you have 100% townread on him then? | ||
|
Release
United States4397 Posts
On June 11 2012 02:31 grush57 wrote: K, we all know ha is mafia and that post pretty much tells who the scum team is. Besides defending a suspicious player and being very suspicious, he isn't scummy to me. Random ass numbers. He isn't making a bold move and a clear opinion on things. Very scummy. As town you have to stick to your guns like Release.That's why Release is my only 100% town read. Also, all the people somewhat defending me right now are town as well, as I know I'm town. The mafia are going to push me as I'm the most suspicious and somewhat defending Ha like KtheZ is. nice one. | ||
|
grush57
Korea (South)2582 Posts
On June 11 2012 02:42 Lazermonkey wrote: Very bad logic here. If scum smell that a lynch is going your way they could easily put up defense in favor of you. Then if we still misslynch you(assuming you are town now...) they gain town cred for defending you. Also this post contain contradiction. You say Release is 100% town read for you but also that scum would push you because you look suspicous. Release have been the one pushing you hardest this far. How can you have 100% townread on him then? Because he is actually bold and knows how to play town. Town makes mistakes too. | ||
|
Release
United States4397 Posts
On June 10 2012 21:56 ha236 wrote: This part stands out to me. You're basing your suspiscion on the fact that solstice and Release have said so? I might have misunderstood this but the reason people think I'm suspicious is because I've softly defended grush. If I havn't allready let me go over it again; I don't think grush is scum. In my opinion there is not enough information to decide this, basically the only thing grush has posted about is trying to defend himself against Release's relentless nitpicking of his posts. I've said it before and I'll say it again, you overestimate the value of that conversation. Anyone in their right minds understands that encouraging the rest of the players to not post (not exposing any information) so you're stuck at square one for the whole game pretty much labels you as mafia instantly. It's way to simple to lynch him because of this. He felt obligied to defend himself since he didn't want to end up in the situation (that he's in now anyway) where he's look suspicious because he hasn't answered peoples questions. No, it's because you said what Lazermonkey said was strange, and then agreed with him. Are you claiming that he is or isn't scum in the second bold? You said earlier that there is not enough information was now you say "way [too] simple to lynch him..." So the reasoning is obvious, therefore you don't want to lynch him? | ||
|
Release
United States4397 Posts
And KenMan, that FOS was the most ridiculous shit i've ever seen. Should have been a vote. | ||
|
KtheZ
United States813 Posts
I like to use numbers because it indicates the degree of suspicion i currently have toward specific persons. I think its much more useful to town if they know my current standings toward people in a numeric form, and can convince me otherwise. As for Grush: I think this is the first time you have finally made an accusation up front, that ha is obviously mafia. It strikes me as awkward that you would attack someone who soft defended you. Enough about you, lets talk about me! Why would you not advocate me providing more information to town: that is, my current suspicions in numeric form and my thoughts. Looking at my suspicion percentages, I am following my policy to NOT TUNNEL. I'm not sure who is mafia, and my percentages reflect that. I'm keeping an open mind. You really need to stop OMGUS-ing anyone who suspects you. All I said there is a probable chance that you're mafia. P.S. "Besides defending a suspicious player and being very suspicious, he isn't scummy to me." What the heck? If someone is suspicious they are scummy. This is another contradiction in your post. | ||
|
The_Zen_Man
Sweden202 Posts
| ||
| ||
