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On January 11 2012 14:23 Probulous wrote:
STUPIDITY!
Just kidding.
Voting tally so far
CatsnHats (3) - Blurry, Paperscraps, Cephiro
Blurry (1) - Gonzaw
Paperscraps (1) - CatsnHats
If I had to make up mind right this instant I would lynch Paperscraps but I am not going to place my vote down yet because I am nowhere near certain of that. I will reread the thread and everyone's analysis again before making up my mind. We still have time.
Any reasoning behind why you would lynch me? I am curious how you are most certain of me than Cats.
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Sheesh, before I post anything longer I just have to say this.
WHY ARE YOU GUYS EVEN THINKING ABOUT LYNCHING XERIS WHEN HE IS GOING TO BE MODKILLED?
If he shows up before lynch time, then we can check into that again.
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On January 11 2012 14:32 gonzaw wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 11 2012 14:01 Probulous wrote:
Gonz, reading your case all you have proven is that his play is bad. I highly doubt he would create such a sophisticated plan to make a fluffy case against Sheth and then use that as evidence for towniness if he had to bus Sheth. Why would you assume that? How is it even a "sophisticated plan"? Shit, let's recap the "sophisticated plan": 1)Make a wishy-washy read on one of his scumbuddies 2)When his scumbuddy has a chance to be lynched, bus him 3)As for the reasons for doing it, just say that your previous wishy-washy read was a suspicion on him (1) Isn't even part of any "plan", it's just a regular scum behaviour of "not being sure" about your scumbuddies, in case you need to bus or defend them later on, and so you don't have to pressure them, talk to them, or have anything to do with them in the thread (2)Seems pretty straightforward, I don't need to explain to you why scum would bus each other when one has the chance of being lynched, right? (3)If this is "sophisticated" I'll eat my own ass. It's the easiest way for him to not make an effort in thinking up reasons to bus him. Actually it's stupid too, since eventually someone is bound to reread that and search for that "suspicion from the start" and figure out it's a bunch of fluff. Like I said where is the scum motivation. Tell me a story :p .....what? You want me to "tell you a story"? Do I have to make wild speculations about "what they may have thought" or some shit? What's the point? I am not here to entertain you guys. I won't start my posts with cute images, or format my posts like a book or something, or "tell stories" or whatever you mean. If I do that I waste time doing something unnecessary. Also, what do you mean "where's the scum motivation"? Isn't "be wishy washy about your scumbuddy so you don't pay attention to him, then bus him to gain town cred" enough? Isn't all that sheeping and regurgitation to lynch a townie (cookie/tea) without actually making an effort enough? Isn't all that "I'll emulate how other players post", and "I'm following my gut" to strip away any responsability and pressure from him enough? Your best point to date has been the lack of communication between them. Expand on that for me. Thanks mate, I appreciate your work! I think I expanded enough. I already pointed out almost all communication between them (I may have left some bussing from Sheth out though, but all of that can be generalised with the single post I showed). So, what do I have to "expand"? Why can't you do that on your own? Sorry for the aggresiveness, but....really? Why are you so sure Blurry is town? Also, why don't you let him defend himself? You are acting like his babysitter or something, if he's pressured let him react to it goddammit! Your play has been very weird lately Prob, shit.
Fair point Gonz, I will let Blurry defend himself. I am not sure he is town, he has played terribly. I just think others look worse.
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My fault Cephiro, I should never had mentioned it. I haven't been bold today but for your sanity's sake
WE ARE NOT LYNCHING XERIS TODAY
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On January 11 2012 14:11 Cephiro wrote:
@ Cats: Give me a list of the persons you are willing to vote for today. (Based on your current opinion.)
I think Paperscraps is the strongest lynch target right now, I've made my case and he is my #1. And I'll keep making it as he continues to post. I would vote for Xeris/Kronhjort but I fully expect him to be mod-killed, so that would be a waste of a vote/lynch. I think Blurry is town (and I've made my case for him being so), but there is enough suspicion surrounding him from others that I would vote for him if there was no other way to get a lynch. That would be a last resort though. Assuming Xeris is modkilled, Paperscraps>>>Blurry in my opinion. Reading town sentiment though, it sounds like it is going to come down between me and Paperscraps.
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Australia8532 Posts
On January 11 2012 14:36 Paperscraps wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 14:11 bkrow wrote:In my short time playing this game i learnt it is not worth it to waste a lynch on someone that is likely to get modkilled. It isn't worth the peace of mind since if his inactivity continues, greymist will do the deed for us :p Ok i feel like this is devolving into YOU ACCUSED ME, SO NOW I AM GOING TO ACCUSE YOU! So this may seem like old/obvious information, but i feel like it will put us on track Player ListAnxiousHippo Replaced by bkrow Cephiro Xeris Replaced by Kronhjort Gretorp Replaced by Paperscraps Gonzaw Blurry Probulous CatsnHats So basically from the above list there are 8 players left in the game. From that list we have 2 mafia remaining after the lynch on Sheth. That means we have 25% chance to lynch correctly based off ZERO reads or analyses. If we use common assumptions and reads into it (without personal bias) we have the following; Player ListAnxiousHippo Replaced by bkrow Cephiro (town vibe) Xeris Replaced by Kronhjort Gretorp Replaced by Paperscraps Gonzaw (probably town) Blurry Probulous (probably town) CatsnHats That means there are 2 mafia in a remaining 5 players; that is a 40% chance to lynch correctly. If we factor in personal bias i.e. i know that i am town, it increases to a 50% chance to lynch correctly. So from Kronhjort Paperscraps Blurry CatsnHats 2 are most likely mafia, from my perception of the game so far, and 2 are most likely town. If we minus Kronhjort for being a lame ass nonposterino we get left with 3 people. If Kron is mafia, we have a 1/3 chance. So now it is time to compare the cases for Paperscraps, Blurry and CatsnHats - ONE OF YOU WILL BE LYNCHED, THE QUESTION IS WHICH ONE? Case against CatsinHats: 123Case against Paperscraps 1Case against Blurry 1I am suggest to everyone, as i will be doing myself, to read very carefully through these posts before the deadline and come to a majority decision to ensure a lynch. I agree that lynching Xeris is stupid, but I would rather lynch him that lynch nobody at all. This is all fine and dandy Bk, but you have to form an opinion of your own! Post like these don't add anything we don't already know. Who are you leaning towards? Where do you stand? Also, you aren't out of the picture as well. 
1) I am trying to form an opinion based on reading through peoples posts, just because i don't cut and paste an image macro and insta-vote someone doesn't mean i don't have an opinion - you are my number 1 target based on Gretorp's earlier posts but i am trying to read what you are saying and see if it still fits with how i feel about you
2) I am not too sold on anyone else; that main analysis for people seems to be that someone is "wishy-washy" or "sheeping" neither of which i feel are solid indicators of anything, particularly in a newbie game; there needs to be more than that for me.
3) I like gonz's post about players that avoid conversation between each other and feel that deserves a closer look.
4) Posts like these do add something; a focus for the town. The last few pages was --> Blurry accuses Cats, Cats accuses Blurry, Someone accuses you, you accuse someone (haven't checked the exact order of events); i think the post i made at least provides the town (the majority) with a key focus point on 3 main targets (i know i am town, believe what you want based on my posts)
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Australia8532 Posts
On January 11 2012 14:38 Cephiro wrote:
Sheesh, before I post anything longer I just have to say this.
WHY ARE YOU GUYS EVEN THINKING ABOUT LYNCHING XERIS WHEN HE IS GOING TO BE MODKILLED?
If he shows up before lynch time, then we can check into that again.
The only one that suggested that was Probu; and 2 of us quickly suggested it would be a complete waste of a lynch
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On January 11 2012 14:37 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 14:20 Paperscraps wrote:
@Ceph: I wouldn't vote up anyone besides Cats or Xeris. This is the reason you are alright voting for Xeris Show nested quote +"If worst comes to worst and we can't get a majority on Cats, then I wouldn't be against lynching Xeris(Kron). If you are sure that Xeris or I are mafia, then I am sure that it is him. This would help my case towards being town and we would be one less inactive.
Lynching Cats or Xeris is win-win for me" Nothing about his play just that because I think one of you two are scum. I never said I was sure he was scum. You don't say you think he is scum, or have any reason to vote for him but you are adamant that only Cats or Xeris will get your vote  What happened to Blurry? I know you changed position on him but at least you had a case for voting against him. You attack Cats on being wishy-washy but this is blatant bandwagoning. You see an opportunity to get either Xeris or Cats voted off and save your hide so you jump at it with no reasoning behind your stance. Pick up your game.
I don't claim to know anything about Xeris, but one thing I do know is that I am not scum.
Also you said this Prob
On January 11 2012 13:48 Probulous wrote:
I am almost certain that either Xeris/kronhjort or Gretorp/Paperscraps is mafia and I can't tell because one of them has been inactive for most of the game.
Also I don't see how I was jumping on the Cats bandwagon? I posted my thoughts of him being scum(largely in part due to Jitsu getting killed and his supscions), before he was even voted up. So no bandwagon here.
Also the whole thing with voting up Xeris, was just saying that I would rather lynch him than have a no-lynch. Not bandwagon either.
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On January 11 2012 13:52 Paperscraps wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 13:04 CatsnHats wrote:
@Cephiro I included Gretorp in my analysis of Paperscraps because they are the same person. I would be remiss to leave out my opinion on Gretorp and just analyze Paperscraps, that would just be throwing away half of the available information we have on him/them. What are the things that you mentioned you did? Have you already analyzed Paperscraps? If so I missed it and apologize for that. Can you requote it to me? Also, you say Prob asked for my case on Blurry and that I didn't write it. But I did, it's at the top of my post on Paperscraps. I came up with the same conclusion that Prob did about Blurry (town for now), but with separate analysis from him. I've been taking Prob for granted up to an extent, but remember I did ask the town if we were following him too blindly. I have an overwhelming gut feeling that Prob is town. With the sheer amount of posting he done (like 8 of the 36 pages), he is either a really good town or the most ballsy scum ever. I think it's the former. I like the sucking up to Ceph here. Apologizing definitely isn't a scum tell at all. /endsarcasm
Really? I know apologizing can be a scum-tell but I actually missed/misunderstood what he was referring too, apologized for it, and he cleared it up. You're reaching.
On January 11 2012 14:00 Paperscraps wrote:If worst comes to worst and we can't get a majority on Cats, then I wouldn't be against lynching Xeris(Kron). If you are sure that Xeris or I are mafia, then I am sure that it is him.  This would help my case towards being town and we would be one less inactive. Lynching Cats or Xeris is win-win for me.
And of course lynching the lurker or me would be best for you, because neither of them are YOU. And that doesn't help your case towards being town. Alot of the grunt work analysis done on me was before you entered the game and I picked up my play, you have no claim to it other than bandwagon. And lynching a lurker gets no one town cred.
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On January 11 2012 14:51 Paperscraps wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 14:37 Probulous wrote:On January 11 2012 14:20 Paperscraps wrote:
@Ceph: I wouldn't vote up anyone besides Cats or Xeris. This is the reason you are alright voting for Xeris "If worst comes to worst and we can't get a majority on Cats, then I wouldn't be against lynching Xeris(Kron). If you are sure that Xeris or I are mafia, then I am sure that it is him. This would help my case towards being town and we would be one less inactive.
Lynching Cats or Xeris is win-win for me" Nothing about his play just that because I think one of you two are scum. I never said I was sure he was scum. You don't say you think he is scum, or have any reason to vote for him but you are adamant that only Cats or Xeris will get your vote What happened to Blurry? I know you changed position on him but at least you had a case for voting against him. You attack Cats on being wishy-washy but this is blatant bandwagoning. You see an opportunity to get either Xeris or Cats voted off and save your hide so you jump at it with no reasoning behind your stance. Pick up your game. I don't claim to know anything about Xeris, but one thing I do know is that I am not scum. Also you said this Prob Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 13:48 Probulous wrote:
I am almost certain that either Xeris/kronhjort or Gretorp/Paperscraps is mafia and I can't tell because one of them has been inactive for most of the game.
Also I don't see how I was jumping on the Cats bandwagon? I posted my thoughts of him being scum(largely in part due to Jitsu getting killed and his supscions), before he was even voted up. So no bandwagon here. Also the whole thing with voting up Xeris, was just saying that I would rather lynch him than have a no-lynch. Not bandwagon either.
You seem to be willing to vote for anyone who has half a case on them. My point is simple, you put effort into your case against Blurry than dropped it in favour of Xeris based on my post. I never said you were jumping on the Cats wagon, I simply want to know what makes Xeris so suspicious in your eyes that you are only willing to vote for him?
You have presented no reasoning why he deserves your vote other than trying to save your own hide. That is not a reason to lynch someone, you lynch them because you believe they are scum. I have my reason for believing that either you or Xeris are scum but you have not presented yours.
Why do you think Xeris is scum?
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+ Show Spoiler +On January 11 2012 14:47 bkrow wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 14:36 Paperscraps wrote:On January 11 2012 14:11 bkrow wrote:In my short time playing this game i learnt it is not worth it to waste a lynch on someone that is likely to get modkilled. It isn't worth the peace of mind since if his inactivity continues, greymist will do the deed for us :p Ok i feel like this is devolving into YOU ACCUSED ME, SO NOW I AM GOING TO ACCUSE YOU! So this may seem like old/obvious information, but i feel like it will put us on track Player ListAnxiousHippo Replaced by bkrow Cephiro Xeris Replaced by Kronhjort Gretorp Replaced by Paperscraps Gonzaw Blurry Probulous CatsnHats So basically from the above list there are 8 players left in the game. From that list we have 2 mafia remaining after the lynch on Sheth. That means we have 25% chance to lynch correctly based off ZERO reads or analyses. If we use common assumptions and reads into it (without personal bias) we have the following; Player ListAnxiousHippo Replaced by bkrow Cephiro (town vibe) Xeris Replaced by Kronhjort Gretorp Replaced by Paperscraps Gonzaw (probably town) Blurry Probulous (probably town) CatsnHats That means there are 2 mafia in a remaining 5 players; that is a 40% chance to lynch correctly. If we factor in personal bias i.e. i know that i am town, it increases to a 50% chance to lynch correctly. So from Kronhjort Paperscraps Blurry CatsnHats 2 are most likely mafia, from my perception of the game so far, and 2 are most likely town. If we minus Kronhjort for being a lame ass nonposterino we get left with 3 people. If Kron is mafia, we have a 1/3 chance. So now it is time to compare the cases for Paperscraps, Blurry and CatsnHats - ONE OF YOU WILL BE LYNCHED, THE QUESTION IS WHICH ONE? Case against CatsinHats: 123Case against Paperscraps 1Case against Blurry 1I am suggest to everyone, as i will be doing myself, to read very carefully through these posts before the deadline and come to a majority decision to ensure a lynch. I agree that lynching Xeris is stupid, but I would rather lynch him that lynch nobody at all. This is all fine and dandy Bk, but you have to form an opinion of your own! Post like these don't add anything we don't already know. Who are you leaning towards? Where do you stand? Also, you aren't out of the picture as well. 1) I am trying to form an opinion based on reading through peoples posts, just because i don't cut and paste an image macro and insta-vote someone doesn't mean i don't have an opinion - you are my number 1 target based on Gretorp's earlier posts but i am trying to read what you are saying and see if it still fits with how i feel about you 2) I am not too sold on anyone else; that main analysis for people seems to be that someone is "wishy-washy" or "sheeping" neither of which i feel are solid indicators of anything, particularly in a newbie game; there needs to be more than that for me. 3) I like gonz's post about players that avoid conversation between each other and feel that deserves a closer look. 4) Posts like these do add something; a focus for the town. The last few pages was --> Blurry accuses Cats, Cats accuses Blurry, Someone accuses you, you accuse someone (haven't checked the exact order of events); i think the post i made at least provides the town (the majority) with a key focus point on 3 main targets (i know i am town, believe what you want based on my posts)
@Bk
1.Understandable to feel that way about me. Gretorp didn't leave me in a great spot. I am trying to redeem myself though and be active.
2.Yeah I agree that the analysis isn't great, but you can't expect too much from a nooby game haha. We are all learning.
3.Yeah I am liking gonz more and more now. He is direct and concise. Sometimes he gets a bit heated, but his heart is in the right place. I am doing my best to answer to everyone addressing me. Everyone as a whole needs to start calling people out for avoiding. (We have been with Blurry alteast)
4.Competent players should be doing this though anyways. We all have a general feel or who is going to be on the chopping block tomorrow. Honestly though we should just narrow it down to Cats or Me if Blurry stays inactive.
I believe you are town as well, I just wanted to see a bit of analysis or opinion. We have to work with what we've got.
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On January 11 2012 14:58 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 14:51 Paperscraps wrote:On January 11 2012 14:37 Probulous wrote:On January 11 2012 14:20 Paperscraps wrote:
@Ceph: I wouldn't vote up anyone besides Cats or Xeris. This is the reason you are alright voting for Xeris "If worst comes to worst and we can't get a majority on Cats, then I wouldn't be against lynching Xeris(Kron). If you are sure that Xeris or I are mafia, then I am sure that it is him. This would help my case towards being town and we would be one less inactive.
Lynching Cats or Xeris is win-win for me" Nothing about his play just that because I think one of you two are scum. I never said I was sure he was scum. You don't say you think he is scum, or have any reason to vote for him but you are adamant that only Cats or Xeris will get your vote What happened to Blurry? I know you changed position on him but at least you had a case for voting against him. You attack Cats on being wishy-washy but this is blatant bandwagoning. You see an opportunity to get either Xeris or Cats voted off and save your hide so you jump at it with no reasoning behind your stance. Pick up your game. I don't claim to know anything about Xeris, but one thing I do know is that I am not scum. Also you said this Prob On January 11 2012 13:48 Probulous wrote:
I am almost certain that either Xeris/kronhjort or Gretorp/Paperscraps is mafia and I can't tell because one of them has been inactive for most of the game.
Also I don't see how I was jumping on the Cats bandwagon? I posted my thoughts of him being scum(largely in part due to Jitsu getting killed and his supscions), before he was even voted up. So no bandwagon here. Also the whole thing with voting up Xeris, was just saying that I would rather lynch him than have a no-lynch. Not bandwagon either. You seem to be willing to vote for anyone who has half a case on them. My point is simple, you put effort into your case against Blurry than dropped it in favour of Xeris based on my post. I never said you were jumping on the Cats wagon, I simply want to know what makes Xeris so suspicious in your eyes that you are only willing to vote for him? You have presented no reasoning why he deserves your vote other than trying to save your own hide. That is not a reason to lynch someone, you lynch them because you believe they are scum. I have my reason for believing that either you or Xeris are scum but you have not presented yours. Why do you think Xeris is scum?
Ok lets say we know that for 100% certain that either I or Xeris is mafia. Due to inactivity on Xeris' part I can't provide analysis on his posts. I know my role though, which is town. Thus that leads me to believe that Xeris would be mafia right?
I am not saying that he is, because we can't be certain at this juncture. But if it were up to just me or him. Then it would have to be him. I hope that makes sense.
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+ Show Spoiler +On January 11 2012 14:55 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 13:52 Paperscraps wrote:On January 11 2012 13:04 CatsnHats wrote:
@Cephiro I included Gretorp in my analysis of Paperscraps because they are the same person. I would be remiss to leave out my opinion on Gretorp and just analyze Paperscraps, that would just be throwing away half of the available information we have on him/them. What are the things that you mentioned you did? Have you already analyzed Paperscraps? If so I missed it and apologize for that. Can you requote it to me? Also, you say Prob asked for my case on Blurry and that I didn't write it. But I did, it's at the top of my post on Paperscraps. I came up with the same conclusion that Prob did about Blurry (town for now), but with separate analysis from him. I've been taking Prob for granted up to an extent, but remember I did ask the town if we were following him too blindly. I have an overwhelming gut feeling that Prob is town. With the sheer amount of posting he done (like 8 of the 36 pages), he is either a really good town or the most ballsy scum ever. I think it's the former. I like the sucking up to Ceph here. Apologizing definitely isn't a scum tell at all. /endsarcasm Really? I know apologizing can be a scum-tell but I actually missed/misunderstood what he was referring too, apologized for it, and he cleared it up. You're reaching. Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 14:00 Paperscraps wrote:If worst comes to worst and we can't get a majority on Cats, then I wouldn't be against lynching Xeris(Kron). If you are sure that Xeris or I are mafia, then I am sure that it is him. This would help my case towards being town and we would be one less inactive. Lynching Cats or Xeris is win-win for me. And of course lynching the lurker or me would be best for you, because neither of them are YOU. And that doesn't help your case towards being town. Alot of the grunt work analysis done on me was before you entered the game and I picked up my play, you have no claim to it other than bandwagon. And lynching a lurker gets no one town cred.
1. You agree that it is a scum-tell. I don't really think I am reaching then. I think you just made my case for me. Can't be reaching if you agree with it, haha.
2. Lynching the lurker is a non-issue anymore. Lynching you would be beneficial to me, because it is not me. More importantly though, because I am pretty certain you are scum. I can admit to joining a bandwagon against you. I mean truth is truth. Would you not vote me up, just because you thought you were joining a bandwagon? I don't think so. I voted you up, because people have made good cases against you and it is the most logical choice right now.
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Alright, since I am leaving for school soon and don't know if I will have time to post before the deadline I am going to argue a few more points.
First off let us look at the cases presented against Cats and I:
Paperscraps:
1. Sheeping (via Cats)
2. Bandwagon (via Cats)
vs
Cats:
1. Sheeping (via Blurry)
2. Bandwagon (via Blurry)
3. Wishy-washy play (via Everyone)
4. Rapidly changing play-styles (Obvious)
5. Apologetic (via Paperscraps)
6. Sudden change of heart to not offend others. (via Blurry, Paperscraps, Ceph)
Secondly:
Cats only answered part of my Post here. Obvious dodge.
On January 11 2012 14:55 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 13:52 Paperscraps wrote:On January 11 2012 13:04 CatsnHats wrote:
@Cephiro I included Gretorp in my analysis of Paperscraps because they are the same person. I would be remiss to leave out my opinion on Gretorp and just analyze Paperscraps, that would just be throwing away half of the available information we have on him/them. What are the things that you mentioned you did? Have you already analyzed Paperscraps? If so I missed it and apologize for that. Can you requote it to me? Also, you say Prob asked for my case on Blurry and that I didn't write it. But I did, it's at the top of my post on Paperscraps. I came up with the same conclusion that Prob did about Blurry (town for now), but with separate analysis from him. I've been taking Prob for granted up to an extent, but remember I did ask the town if we were following him too blindly. I have an overwhelming gut feeling that Prob is town. With the sheer amount of posting he done (like 8 of the 36 pages), he is either a really good town or the most ballsy scum ever. I think it's the former. I like the sucking up to Ceph here. Apologizing definitely isn't a scum tell at all. /endsarcasm Really? I know apologizing can be a scum-tell but I actually missed/misunderstood what he was referring too, apologized for it, and he cleared it up. You're reaching. Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 14:00 Paperscraps wrote:If worst comes to worst and we can't get a majority on Cats, then I wouldn't be against lynching Xeris(Kron). If you are sure that Xeris or I are mafia, then I am sure that it is him. This would help my case towards being town and we would be one less inactive. Lynching Cats or Xeris is win-win for me. And of course lynching the lurker or me would be best for you, because neither of them are YOU. And that doesn't help your case towards being town. Alot of the grunt work analysis done on me was before you entered the game and I picked up my play, you have no claim to it other than bandwagon. And lynching a lurker gets no one town cred.
Lastly:
On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:
Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter.
Even after Jitsu is killed and confirmed townie, he calls him "suspected"? Sounds pretty scummy to me.
Then he comments on my filter being small, which wasn't in my control at the time, being a replacement and all. I can't be held accountable for joining mid-game. Another scummy thing to stay.
Good luck hunting scum today town.
May the best man win!
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The idea that me immediately voting for Sheth was somehow a mafia plan to make me innocent in the town's eyes is rather stupid. I am not a good player by any stretch of the imagination so why would he sacrifice himself to try and help make one of the weakest players in the game look more innocent. It was not clear that he was going to be lynched. May I remind you that the vote for him succeeded by just one vote. If I had been scum I would have either feigned inactivity and not voted, or perhaps voted for Cats who was already under a lot of suspicion at that point.
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Probulous has been keeping good track, but I thought I would throw in a Mod Votecount for you guys:
CatsnHats(3): Blurry, Paperscraps, Cephiro
Blurry(1): Gonzaw
Paperscraps(1): CatsnHats
The day ends in about 3 hours and 40 minutes from now. With 8 players alive it takes 5 to lynch!
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On January 11 2012 13:52 Paperscraps wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 11 2012 13:26 CatsnHats wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 12:02 Paperscraps wrote:On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:
Much better than Gretorp, but that isn't saying much. His reads are pretty interesting though. He picks Xeris, a bigger lurker than Gretorp, and Blurry, a player already under an eye of scrutiny. This is an easy thing to do. And he doesn't give any reasoning for his picks. Sheeping/ghosing, call it what you will. It definitely isn't original though. 1.Xeris is just a hunch, but really a non-factor as long as long as you are still alive. I had to post something to show I was active. It takes time to get caught up, and re-reading filters definitely reveals more and more as time goes on. Kinda making my case. Just because you wanted to show you were active doesn't mean you have to post no-analysis sheep filler.
Next post. Blurry stays scum. Xeris changes to null (probably because he's caught up with everyone's opinion Xeris by now), and I am town. Keep this in mind. He also posts the 3 clearest town reads as his own. Nothing original. When Probulous questions him on his reads, Paper agrees and changes his mind about me, claiming he will re-read my filter. Xeris is also off his radar completely. Most interesting however is the fact that he sticks to his case that Blurry is scummy. 2.I still am not quite sure about Blurry, he hasn't really done anything to justify himself as of yet. Also your sudden change of heart about him isn't helping that either, because you are the scummiest read town has at the moment. I justified my change of heart with analysis to support it, so you shouldn't have a problem with my new opinion other than to scrutinize it with analysis of your own.Paper claims that:
"Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy."
Blurry acutally did post analysis on Sheth. Even though it was scant, it was correct, and he was the only one up to that point other than Prob to question Sheth. Paper, as scum, knows that Blurry is town, so he's neglecting facts to cast a shadow on a suspected player. 3.This is what I was referring to. Blurry is clearly is leaning towards town on Sheth. + Show Spoiler +On January 05 2012 08:28 Blurry wrote:2: Sheth Theres one post by him that caught my attention: Show nested quote +Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read This for me could mean one of two things: A. A subtle claim to not being scum based on the logic that Jitsu would know immediately. Or B. I will be able to tell whether or not Jitsu is or is not scum. Other than this he has been aggressive in terms of trying to get people on the defensive (CatsnHats) which I like as holes will show in peoples stories. Right now I'm feeling like he would be town rather than scum but I think time will tell. On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter.
With my new opinion that Blurry is town, I think Paperscraps is scum sheeping against the two questioned townies, me and Blurry.
Because of all of this reasoning above:
##Unvote: Blurry
##Vote: Paperscraps
I look forward to your response Paperscraps.
And at this point I think Xeris/Kronhjort is going to get mod-killed, and if he flips blue/green, I will be PISSED. 4.Basically this all sums up to a redirection or deflection of scrutiny that is on you Cats and Blurry. I am positive that Cats in scum now, because he is scared that I suspect him of it and now gives some pretty trivial/wrong accusations against me. Sounds like he is getting desperate. This also further makes Blurry look bad. All of a sudden Blurry is clean in your eyes? or maybe he is your scum buddy! I am guessing that latter. I bet this was your plan for the whole day to vote up Blurry, then have some sudden revelation and vote up a townie who isn't even responsible for half of his time in the game yet. Again I backed up my change of heart with analysis, something you yourself cannot claim. Also nice job saying that I am redirecting scrutiny from myself and Blurry when I just finished claiming you were doing the same to us. Come on, that's blatant OMGUS and you know it. And that is a definite WIFOM hypothetical if I have ever seen one. ##Vote: CatsNHats Overall this is a poor rebuttal Paperscraps. My answers are bolded and underlined. 1. I don't really get how posting my initial feel and stance on the town leads to you thinking I am scum. I posted, because I didn't want people to think they had another lurker/inactive ruining the game for them. 2. As for your analysis of Blurry: Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:Probulous you probably weren't expecting this, but I'm about to change up my read. The more I read Blurry's thread, and I've read through it multiple times now, the more I think he is just a lurker newb not sure how to contribute. Even when he sheeped against me so hard recently, he admitted that he was doing it immediately. He was the 2nd person to vote for Sheth (and he had a surprisingly good read on him for posting so little). And the WIFOM posts I called him out on earlier make more sense in light of the fact that he says he has been using his gut alot since he feels his analysis isn't up to par. Your gut is the only way to make a decision about a WIFOM situation. I feel like I can read newb play, being that I was/still am one, and Blurry definitely strikes me as a lurker newb town now. Thats being said, he still needs to post more. I can actually agree with this. I wish he would post more. He has you pegged as scum, so that makes him a little less noob though, haha. 3. Blurry does call out Sheth. I skipped over that because he does it in a shy way though and never follows through with analysis. 4. I had suspicion of you long before you voted me up, this isn't retaliation or OMGUS. I don't know what WIFOM hypothetical you are talking about either. + Show Spoiler +On January 11 2012 13:04 CatsnHats wrote:
@Cephiro I included Gretorp in my analysis of Paperscraps because they are the same person. I would be remiss to leave out my opinion on Gretorp and just analyze Paperscraps, that would just be throwing away half of the available information we have on him/them. What are the things that you mentioned you did? Have you already analyzed Paperscraps? If so I missed it and apologize for that. Can you requote it to me? Also, you say Prob asked for my case on Blurry and that I didn't write it. But I did, it's at the top of my post on Paperscraps. I came up with the same conclusion that Prob did about Blurry (town for now), but with separate analysis from him. I've been taking Prob for granted up to an extent, but remember I did ask the town if we were following him too blindly. I have an overwhelming gut feeling that Prob is town. With the sheer amount of posting he done (like 8 of the 36 pages), he is either a really good town or the most ballsy scum ever. I think it's the former. I like the sucking up to Ceph here. Apologizing definitely isn't a scum tell at all. /endsarcasm
What out of this post am I dodging, exactly? There isn't really a question posed to me. For #1, it's good that you posted and are active, but you were just echoing the past (very vocalized) concerns of other players, so it doesn't really do anything to help you. I love #2. "As for your analysis of Blurry, I actually agree with it." Haha I thought you were going to shoot holes in it, but oh well. And in #3, you admit to skipping over the evidence that debunks your argument (that Blurry thought Sheth was town), that just doesn't sit well with me. As for #4, the WIFOM hypothetical is you saying this in the post where you vote for me (section bolded):
On January 11 2012 12:02 Paperscraps wrote:
4.Basically this all sums up to a redirection or deflection of scrutiny that is on you Cats and Blurry. I am positive that Cats in scum now, because he is scared that I suspect him of it and now gives some pretty trivial/wrong accusations against me. Sounds like he is getting desperate. This also further makes Blurry look bad.
All of a sudden Blurry is clean in your eyes? or maybe he is your scum buddy! I am guessing that latter. I bet this was your plan for the whole day to vote up Blurry, then have some sudden revelation and vote up a townie who isn't even responsible for half of his time in the game yet.
##Vote: CatsNHats
This whole scenario is impossible to prove and is pretty outlandish if you ask me. WIFOM like this does nothing to help the town. It is a good way for scum to deflect pressure though.
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On January 12 2012 06:12 Blurry wrote:
The idea that me immediately voting for Sheth was somehow a mafia plan to make me innocent in the town's eyes is rather stupid. I am not a good player by any stretch of the imagination so why would he sacrifice himself to try and help make one of the weakest players in the game look more innocent. It was not clear that he was going to be lynched. May I remind you that the vote for him succeeded by just one vote. If I had been scum I would have either feigned inactivity and not voted, or perhaps voted for Cats who was already under a lot of suspicion at that point.
These are very good points Blurry, glad to see you are posting again. What do you think of my case against Paperscraps (my new thoughts on you are included in that post)? Would you be willing to vote for him, or are you dead set towards only voting for me this lynch?
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On January 12 2012 05:43 Paperscraps wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 05:23 CatsnHats wrote:
Paperscraps then busses Jitsu, using his death during N2 as evidence for Jitsu being correct about me being scum. This is sheeping against the most suspected townie. Paperscraps next two posts are further sheeping of Jitsu's analysis of me. There is no reason to quote them, they are one-liners and are easy to find on his small filter. Even after Jitsu is killed and confirmed townie, he calls him "suspected"? Sounds pretty scummy to me. Then he comments on my filter being small, which wasn't in my control at the time, being a replacement and all. I can't be held accountable for joining mid-game. Another scummy thing to stay. Good luck hunting scum today town. May the best man win!
What is this Paperscraps? Isn't it obvious that the "most suspected townie" I'm referring to is me? You can't sheep AGAINST a dead player, a townie at that. And what's wrong with me calling your filter small? I know you joined midgame, but "small" is the correct adjective to describe your filter. I didn't say, "his small filter filled with nothing but shitty shit shit garbage." The way I used it has no connotation. The way you perceived the way I used it is negative. You're really really reaching here.
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@Cats, for now I will stick with you as my scum vote. You are still my best bet for who should be lynched today. Keep in mind, if you are indeed town, and you get lynched, you dont lose the game. Your death will give us valuable information on who was pushing for your lynch.
For now tell me what you think about Gonzaw.
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EPT
