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On March 13 2008 15:20 fusionsdf wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2008 15:14 aZnvaLiaNce wrote:On March 13 2008 15:05 GeneralStan wrote:On March 13 2008 15:04 fusionsdf wrote:
Note: I will be running for mayor regardless of my assignment later on.
By announcing it right now, choosing me is less likely to end up with a mafia mayor than someone who runs for mayor after roles are assigned.
VOTE FOR ME(When the time comes) This is the most nonsensical argument I've ever heard qft because mafia will want to be mayor obviously. so if 1/7 people are mafia, right now, by electing me when my behavior is both known and independant of role, there would be 6/7 chance that Im a townie. After the roles are assigned and mafia start gunning for office, it much more likely that a candidate will be from the mafia.
You're assuming that a higher percentage of Mafia than of townies will run for mayor, which is not necessarily true, and wasn't, in the last game.
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What do you expect?--be precise. That one mafioso will run for Mayor? Two? All of them? I agree with you that it's a smart strategy to have a Mafia candidate. It's not necessarily smart for the Mafia to have multiple candidates--in fact, I think that's a bad idea for a number of reasons. Townies will not have the same compunctions about multiple candidates. If a smaller fraction of the Mafia than of the townies runs for Mayor, then you've given us a reason not to vote for you.
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On March 13 2008 15:58 goldenkrnboi wrote:......... you forgot me chuiu. please add. kthx. 
You appear to be #25.
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On March 13 2008 16:02 evanthebouncy! wrote:
Wait whaa I'm not in?
I want in!!!
*sigh*
#59.
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Seems to me that linking to each day/night post in the OP is effectively just as good.
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OK, so far fusion, caller, and Empyrean have all said that they will run for mayor no matter what. That means that if they end up mafioso, the Mafia practically has to put them up for election, otherwise it will be clear that they are Mafia (why else wouldn't they run).
IOW, if the Mafia puts up, say, two candidates, and any of these three are in the Mafia, he will be one of the two candidates. Something to keep in mind.
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No. You keep saying that, but it's groundless. You're assuming that the Mafia will put up a higher percentage of its people for mayor than the town will, but there is no reason to think that that is the case.
1) Last game, when Chuiu closed the vote, 7/57 townies were candidates. 0/14 mafia were candidates. (link). That worked out fine for them, by the way.
2) It doesn't make sense for the Mafia to put up more than a couple of candidates:
a) The more people they put up, the harder it is to influence the vote for any one of them.
b) The more people they put up for election, the more people fingers can be pointed at down the line.
Townies, on the other hand, don't have to worry about these things.
3) You don't seem to realize that your reasoning cuts both ways: Sure, if you're right, and the Mafia will put up a higher percentage of candidates than the town, the odds favor voting for you, but if you're wrong, and the town will put up a higher percentage of candidates than the Mafia, the odds favor voting for someone other than you.
4) In any case, none of that is what I was saying in my above post. I said this: on that 1/7 chance that you are Mafia, you've locked yourself into being the Mafia candidate. That makes it slightly more likely, that between you and another candidate, you are the Mafioso. For argument's sake, take two people A and B. Assume the Mafia has at most one candidate. A has declared his candidacy beforehand. If neither is Mafia, that is that. If A is Mafia (1/7 chance), A is the Mafia candidate. If B is Mafia and A is not (~6/49 chance), B is the Mafia candidate. If both are Mafia (~1/49), A is the Mafia candidate, because he's already locked himself in. So everything else being equal, it is more likely that A is the Mafia's candidate.
You are A. You will probably not be Mafia (like any other given person), but everything else being equal, you are slightly more likely to be a Mafia candidate than someone else who is running.
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On March 14 2008 15:45 Ace wrote:
actually no he is right, this is nonsense.
...
What those 3 are saying is that they think they are SMART enough to lead the town, and in the Mafia games I've played and admined thats the kind of strategy I would go for as an innocent townie. A Mafia Mayor or Mafia Pardoner can be cornered if you know they have to be thinking logically.
Maybe you're right, maybe not, but that's not what fusion was saying. He was saying that the odds were better that he would be innocent than any other candidate; hence my post explaining why I think his reasoning there is flawed.
You say that the whole notion of trying to pick an innocent mayor is nonsense...I have to say I'm a dubious about that. Surely a good mafioso could use the mayoral position to his advantage. If nothing else--even if we lynched him, we wouldn't have a mayor, and that's a disadvantage itself. Besides, it's not that easy to co-ordinate detectives when we don't know who is one. What if all the detectives investigated the mayor the first night--that would be a waste of detection, wouldn't it?
As for your final point: "What those 3 are saying is that they think they are SMART enough to lead the town" (the implication being that everyone else is not?) OK, if that argument works for you, fine. I find it somewhat lacking.
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On March 14 2008 15:51 ahrara_ wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2008 14:38 qrs wrote:
OK, so far fusion, caller, and Empyrean have all said that they will run for mayor no matter what. That means that if they end up mafioso, the Mafia practically has to put them up for election, otherwise it will be clear that they are Mafia (why else wouldn't they run).
IOW, if the Mafia puts up, say, two candidates, and any of these three are in the Mafia, he will be one of the two candidates. Something to keep in mind. That doesn't make any logical sense. How would withdrawing their candidacy in any way make them look like scum?
The point is: they have said they are running. They have no reason to change that, unless they answer to someone else.
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On March 14 2008 15:51 Ace wrote:
3 - complete bullshit. There are no odds when it comes to voting for Mayor, especially if the last game is any proof.
Good, you agree with me. fusionsdf was the one who was saying that there were odds, based on certain assumptions of his. I pointed out that under different assumptions, the odds would point in the other direction. Honestly, I don't think that there's a really strong basis for either set of assumptions.
4 - also complete crap. Actually, it's not. Think about it.
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On March 14 2008 16:10 Ace wrote:
ok look to make this even simpler: I'm running for Mayor also.
See? Now even if any of us are Mafia we'll still run for Mayor and you can't figure anything out.
Yeah, that was basically my point. I didn't mean that there is any reason for the Mafia to make someone withdraw their candidacy; only that if there was a reason, they couldn't do it without looking suspicious. All I was saying was: assuming that 1) the Mafia will not cancel someone's candidacy, and 2) the Mafia does not want to put up more than X number of candidates, then 3) a candidate who had locked himself into running beforehand would have slightly higher odds of being Mafia than a candidate who hadn't.
Look, I'm willing to drop the subject: it's only a slight difference.
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Fine, fine. I wasn't the one who brought up odds in the first place. They probably won't be the main factor in anyone's vote, but they could be a factor between two otherwise equal candidates. I can see your point that they don't matter that much in the overall picture.
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On March 14 2008 16:18 ahrara_ wrote:
No qrs. What I'm asking is how you can draw the conclusion that someone is mafia just because they withdraw their candidacy. So if I decide to be a candidate and later withdraw it, you're going to lynch me? I understand the mafia don't want to split the vote, but there are enough legitimate reasons not to want to run for mayor it's not conclusive.
Heh, a lot of cross-posting going on here. All right, your point is taken too, ahrara. There may be legitimate reasons to change your mind about running, and that undermines the conclusion I wanted to draw. Still, if someone said he was running and then changed his mind, I would make a note of it.
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On March 14 2008 16:22 RtS)Night[Mare wrote:
the games hasnt even started and you're already pointing fingers. cmon. lol, isn't that the point of the game?
anyway, it's late here on the east coast: good night
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On March 14 2008 19:55 Empyrean wrote:
You didn't pass Statistics, did you :/
No fucking way is there an increase in chance of candidates being mafia if they decided before-hand that they would run for mayor no matter what. Especially since deciding to run before-hand is determined by the player and mafia status is chosen randomly by Chuiu.
It's not really worth getting into again, but my assumption was that a player's deciding to run beforehand would have an influence on the Mafia's decisions afterward (if that player was assigned to be Mafia). IOW, not that there is an increase in the chance of him being Mafia, but that there is a decrease in the chance of other Mafia running. If you don't agree, OK.
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On March 18 2008 18:50 Ace wrote:
ugh ok you people are really either acting slightly on drugs or something.
HOW does Araav knowing programming languages benefit us?
Seriously ask yourself that.
I know C/C++, Java, and Assembly but that really won't help me find Mafia members now will it?
Well, keeping track of the profiles, etc. does benefit us, but more to the point, he bothered to do it. If he was Mafia, that would be a questionable move: who knows how long it would take for us to get the information together otherwise? Therefore I think that araav's using his programming skills to help the town is an indication that he is a towny.
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All of this is irrelevant. The detectives can investigate the mayor whoever he turns out to be. It doesn't matter whether you call it part of your platform. If you are campaigning for mayor, tell us what you will do. How will you use double lynches, for instance?
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On March 19 2008 00:29 Ghar wrote:Show nested quote +Well, keeping track of the profiles, etc. does benefit us, but more to the point, he bothered to do it. If he was Mafia, that would be a questionable move: who knows how long it would take for us to get the information together otherwise? Therefore I think that araav's using his programming skills to help the town is an indication that he is a towny. At the consequence of what? Becoming mayor. There is nothing right now that can make anyone less suspicious than another. He's not guaranteed to become mayor. You're right, it doesn't prove he's a towny--we can play the double-feint game forever--but it's still something. At the end of the day, the Mafia doesn't want the list up, and if they can get away with no one posting it, they would prefer that.
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On March 19 2008 00:45 Ace wrote:
The Bodyguard Plan...
Now, that sounds like a good plan. Let me go you one better (unless this is what you meant): after the bodyguards are confirmed, let the mayor release one of their names publically. If it's a lie, the other bodyguards can call it. Now we have a guaranteed towny and all the detectives, etc. can PM their roles to him. In turn, he can forward them to the other bodyguards, so that even if the Mafia kills him, there will still be townies who know the important roles and can co-ordinate.
I'll consider switching my vote to you, but it doesn't matter that much. We can follow your plan whether or not you are the mayor.
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On March 19 2008 01:35 BWdero wrote:
Araav has a conservative double lynch platform. Something I find counterproductive. We should lynch early and often....
Any thoughts on this?
That's the main reason I voted for him (although my impression is that Ghar also wants to conserve double lynches). All things being equal, sure it's better to lynch the Mafia early on, but the most important thing is to use our lynches well, as we have a limited supply of them. That means not using double lynches before we have suspects (and if the last game shows anything, there will be suspects later on).
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EPT
