EPTlast game was fun but i died too early
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
last game was fun but i died too early | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
On February 17 2014 08:37 OnceKing wrote: What do you think of the Amiko lynch and what are your reads on everyone involved? Sorry for the late reply, had a long day today and just got back home. The first vote cast on Amiko was by OnceKing with the main reason being he didn't like his initial post. I agree with him on that, but I don't think it's enough to warrant a lynch on Amiko. What I didn't like about Amiko's initial post was there wasn't really anything of substance, his town claim is unnecessary since at that point anybody can claim town and it doesn't mean anything. The vibe I'm getting from that is that he wants eyes away from him. I really don't like this line from Amiko: (1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate- I think most of us are new to the forum mafia game and sometimes mistakes can get a townie lynched (happened to me my last game). I just don't really see how we can use experience to evaluate anybody's alignment, if that's what Amiko means by evaluate. This line doesn't really give me a scum read on him, I just don't agree with his statement. But from his initial post, I lean very lightly towards a scum read on Amiko. As for others, I'll post a bit more later after I catch up and read through some filters. | ||
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theDragoon
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
After reading through Cavalinho's and OnceKing's posts, I'm starting to be a bit more convinced that Amiko is scum, however with so many inactives I will wait until they start posting more before casting my vote. Scum have a huge incentive to hide right now if Amiko is town. @Lord Tolkien: Me: obv town. If I were blue, it would only be Veteran because I can take a hit; otherwise, why would I risk my neck Day 1. You could also read me red I suppose; it's also a possibility. I just want to clarify what you mean by this post. What exactly was the risk you took and why would it be such a big risk that only a Veteran would take? | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
On February 17 2014 12:46 Amiko wrote: theDragoon & Valenius: I'm not sure. They have contributed a little but I don't have a read yet. I would like to ask both, if you were to pick someone other than me to lynch, who would you pick and why? If I am lynched and flip green, what will your thoughts be on Cavalinho & I've got my eye on Lord Tolkien at this point in time mainly because of this: On February 17 2014 12:28 Lord Tolkien wrote: I meant that if I were a blue. There's no reason for a cop or somesuch to be forward/active in Day 1, because it draws attention to themselves for a night kill from mafia. The only blue role (if I am a blue) that leads you to think I would be is a Veteran because I can soak a night shot. Assuming I'm not vanilla town or mafia, which are the other logical possibilities. I'm willing to bet the same thing generally with OnceKing, and probably Caval as well. Green, veteran, or mafia are the likely choices. The problem I have with this is the soft blue claim. He's saying that a cop or similar blue role wouldn't be active on day 1 for fear of drawing attention to themselves. Then he says if he is blue, then he'd be a Veteran. I'm not really buying the whole I'm active therefore I'm a veteran thing. I feel like any townie, green or blue should try to be active so that we can gather as much info as we can. So by trying to suggest he is a blue, he can avoid 2 things: 1) getting lynched if people believe his suggestion, this works well if he's red 2) if mafia doesn't have a roleblocker and they believe he is a veteran then he avoids getting shot, he's basically banking on mafia not having a roleblocker. He'd be one of my lynch targets on day 1 just because I want to see if he's scum pretending to be blue. If he does get lynched and ends up flipping blue then it looks bad on me. However, I don't feel too strong about this one to vote him just yet. | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
OnceKing said: AND you say that you don't think IAmRobik is scummy, just inactive when you've clearly called out some of his posts as making him scummy, so what gives? I believe he is correct. Can you tell me why you strongly believe OnceKing is mafia? He started the vote on Amiko, which gained a bit of ground then switched to you. If he was mafia, why would he switch from Amiko, who was getting a lot of suspicious looks from people, including yourself. He said he wanted to split votes to generate more discussion, which isn't really a scum move and it favors town since mafia can't easily bandwagon. | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
On February 18 2014 00:26 IAmRobik wrote: Pages 4 and 5: This post is super scummy: This post is super towny, which is why I rescinded and said that he's town: Whereas some people find this post by Amiko to be scummy, I think the opposite. I like this post a lot: Up to this point, there's no scummier post than this one: I don't know what this says about OnceKing's alignment, but the fact that he jumps on Amiko's post is pretty meh in my opinion. Amiko makes, what I consider to be, a good post and onceking focuses on the fact that it's long and has no content? Besides length, none of the posts really have content up to this point...I will say though that I like the fact that Onceking actually provided some conent here. Probably more towny, but still don't like this post overall: Not gonna quote the end of the page, but Cavalinho is securing himself as my top town read based off of how freely he is speaking with regard to the Amiko situation and how openly he is aligning himself with OnceKing. This doesn't mean that I think OnceKing is town, but I don't think that Cavalinho's logic would be so easy to follow if he was mafia. I don't like the first four parts of this post where Robik just labels posts as either scummy or towny without providing any reason why. Can you tell us why you think those posts are scummy/towny? | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
About people thinking too much about exact roles, Lord Tolkien does this as well in one of his latest posts: On February 18 2014 09:10 Lord Tolkien wrote: I already stated I was unsure if he was just pointing fingers and just letting town tear themselves apart with no firm commitment himself as a godfather, or just a townie who's just directing town attention instead of actively participating with definitive reads and reasoning He also previously talked about certain players possibly having blue roles, such as him suggesting he's a veteran. I just don't see how it helps us too much focusing on figuring out specific roles, we should be trying to find scum, not trying to figure out game set up and possible roles, there's time for that later. It benefits scum more to try to find out the blue roles more than town. He also says this about discussing roles: I still don't see why commenting on roles is a bad thing for town (mafia will be doing it anyways in their QT) The bolded part I think is a slip and is probably the biggest tell for a scum Lord Tolkien. ##Vote Lord Tolkien | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
On February 18 2014 09:14 OnceKing wrote: More and more I'm growing dissatisfied with the way that Cavalinho is responding to pressure. He's lashing back out at Amiko saying that he's being tunneled upon but I can't agree -- though yes, the bulk of Amiko's case is indeed on Cavalinho he's also discussed other people like LT. Not only that but his actual defenses are just really indignant statements ("You're saying I can't do X? I'm not allowed to say Y?"). I agree that N1k0 has not contributed enough if really at all despite IAmRobik's statement that he has, but neither has Beneather. I can't see any contradiction in N1k0's post, just uncertainty in his vote placement. In addition he himself is now OMGUSing despite talking so much about it being bad earlier... what's up with that? Regarding Cavalinho OMGUSing on N1k0 and not really posting his reason on why he has a scum read on N1k0 is a bit suspicious. At the point where Cavalinho votes for N1k0, he doesn't mention anything to support his scum read on him. Also, I dislike his insults toward Amiko, there's no reason to insult anyone, especially one you think is town. If I'm interpreting it correctly, he's leaning on Amiko being town based on this post: On February 18 2014 08:41 Cavalinho wrote: I stand by the fact that N1k0 is our best lynch target right now. He has contributed nothing and contradicts his own reasoning for pushing a lynch. Amiko, at the very least, tries. What he's saying is stupid and wrong, but he's trying. I've had a strong town read on Cavalinho up to this point but as others mention some of the scummy actions and posts he's made I'm starting to have second thoughts. Question for Cavalinho: Why did you quickly switch your vote to N1k0 without picking apart N1k0's posts for the contradictions he's made on his post? | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
On February 18 2014 11:46 OnceKing wrote: Err... how is it a slip for LT to say that scum are probably discussing something on their QT? I see it as speculation at worst, I mean it's stated in the OP that scum have their own QT lol. Care to elaborate, theDragoon? I called it a slip because I wasn't really thinking of the mafia QT and the fact that he mentioned it could imply that he's been using it. I might be reaching with this but that was my thought process behind it. | ||
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theDragoon
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theDragoon
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Valenius lists his town and mafia reads. The part that struck out to me was his mafia read on IAmRobik and his reason behind it, which he said was “just a gut feeling”. His posts after that are targeted towards Robik since he thought that Valenius was super scummy. He then votes for Robik but I have yet to see his reason for wanting to lynch Robik other than Robik calling him scum. Rather than looking for other scum, Valenius has complete tunnel vision on Robik, not sure if it’s because he panicked that Robik got an accurate read on him or he just OMGUS. I would really like to hear Valenius’ reason to keep his vote on Robik, despite not having a sufficient argument for his scum read. Also, Lord Tolkien made a good point with this: Both of the votes on N1k0 are dead, but it might just be mafia exploiting the situation to get a mislynch going. With a mafia read on Valenius, it makes sense that Robik was their target for the night kill. Val’s vote on Robik didn’t gain traction and they saw the opportunity to implicate N1k0 with a mislynch since both players who voted him are now dead. This would also suggest that N1k0 is town if Val is mafia. If Val and N1k0 are scum partners then I don’t think they would have shot Robik since it makes N1k0 look very suspicious.As of now my strongest scum read is Valenius. | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
Can you clarify this part of your post: I have utter conviction that two out of three are mafia given our stances on the Amiko case, and my and OnceKing's spat. It may be masterful play if two of us were able to pull it off to throw everyone off their game (in which case, I think that you two have won the game already). In this case, I feel the best play is to look at lurkers, because I'm fairly certain there's at least 1-2 in a pool of 4, and a 0-1 chance in a pool of 3. Better odds, so to speak. It may be late and I'm just tired but I'm having a hard time understanding what you're trying to say there. Specifically the bold part because at the first part it sounds like you're talking as mafia then the part with brackets sound like you're talking town. Also, is it pretty much guaranteed that it's 2 mafia rather than 3? With 7 players remaining it would be difficult to win the game 4v3. | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
On February 18 2014 10:45 Beneather wrote: As the deadline comes closer, the scummiest person that I have read so far is Valenius, he doesn't contribute anything to town's efforts of deciding on a scum and just posts nothing of actual value. He brings up IamRobik and votes him but does not bring any reasons except that IamRobik has a problem with Valenius' posts, which is not a solid argument. I believe that Valenius might be scum because he is just posting things that look like it has contributions but in all honesty have no value. They are just restating the post and not providing any information and also has a lot of side tracking in it. As far as right now I believe that Valenius is mafia. A lot of his posts are just him defending himself but not bring any value to the discussion. That seems very scummy, just showing up for the occasional defending but then disappear before attracting too much attention and just sit back and watch town try to lynch each other. ##VOTE Valenius I don't really have a strong scum read on Beneather because he's posted so little, so there's definitely better lynch targets than him. N1k0 has slightly more analysis than Beneather and some parts do look towny, but some are a little bit scummy. In particular I found that his mentioning of Amiko being godfather was rather scummy (which I previously mentioned) but says later that Amiko's posts swayed him towards a town read on Amiko. He was wrong about his scum read on Cav though, but he does make a decent argument for it. I'm waiting for his next post where he says he'll reply to Amiko, but as of now I'm not getting a strong scum read on him. I've already mentioned my thoughts on Valenius and with OnceKing and LT making their case against him, it's only made my scum read on him stronger. He's also posted very little value despite his number of posts. At this point, I think we need to start looking for scum pairs, if we get the right lynch today it might give us a lot of information on who to lynch on day 3. ##Vote Valenius | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
On my previous post I said I don't have a strong scum read on Beneather but if Valenius flips red I started thinking about his most likely partners and Beneather looks to be the most logical choice. If you read through Val's filter, a lot of it his him asking Robik why he thinks Val is scummy. Val also voted for Robik because he pretty much didn't like Robik's read on him. However, Val never mentions Beneather at all despite Beneather actually having a solid case, and an actual vote on him. I was a bit hesitant to make this connection because I thought if they were mafia teammates then Beneather wouldn't have such a solid case against his partner. So the question is, why did Val OMGUS Robik, who didn't have a solid case against him and ignored the only guy with a real case on him with Beneather? My guess is they planned this to keep themselves apart, to eliminate any possible connections between each other. Beneather knows that Val won't get lynched since he was mainly off town's radar and votes for him so that it's less likely that we make the connection between the two. Another thing to note is that neither of the two jumped on any of the possible bandwagons on day 1: Cavalinho, Lord Tolkien, and N1k0. Again, this supports the idea of them trying to distance themselves away from each other, and with the lack of a bandwagon it makes it easy for them to just watch town go at each other. The three way tie between Cavalinho, LT and N1k0 was also in their favor since any one of the three being lynched results in a mislynch for us. | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
My reads on IAmRobik were based on what i’ve discussed earlier, his jumping on me when.. please correct me if i’m wrong.. there wasn’t a massive amount of suspicion on me at the time. So you're main reason for having a scum read on IAmRobik is because he jumped on you? He said you were scummy because of this post: + Show Spoiler + This post is super scummy: On February 16 2014 12:21 Valenius wrote: Good evening  I'm heading to bed now, UK Time (03:00), see you all in a bit!He also said the same thing to me + Show Spoiler + Up to this point, there's no scummier post than this one: On February 16 2014 16:06 theDragoon wrote: Nice, we finally got this started, all that early voting made me lol a bit. Gonna hit the sack soon, see ya'll tomorrow The difference between our reactions is night and day, I pretty much dismissed that accusation because there was no substance behind it. Yet, you use that post to fuel your case on Robik being scum, which isn't a good case at all, especially now that we know that Robik was town. You questioned him about that post and you continued to pursue the lynch on him. This is really scummy because up to the point where you cast your vote on Robik, you had no real case towards him being scummy other than him thinking your post was scummy. I think the main reason why you wanted Robik lynched was because he put a little pressure on you and you overreacted, which is something mafia is more likely to do. It also makes sense that he was shot during the night after your lynch attempt on him didn't gain traction. | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
As I stated previously, I have a slight scum read on N1k0, however I have a stronger scum read on Valenius, which is why I voted him. Also, until after I read OnceKing's case against N1k0, I didn't really notice how he mostly piggybacked onto other people's posts without contributing anything original and this does make him look very scummy. I can see that being poor town play and analytical skills or just straight up mafia play. If N1k0 gets lynched today and flips red this makes Valenius more likely to be town because he is the first player on day 2 to vote N1k0. There’s no way a mafia Valenius would initiate the lynch on his teammate who has already gotten suspicions from everyone. If Valenius is mafia, then his vote would be cast later after he sees N1k0’s situation unsalvageable. But if N1k0 flips green, then Valenius is definitely the best lynch target on day 3. Mod question: If Beneather doesn’t post and gets modkilled does he still get replaced? | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
On February 21 2014 06:45 Valenius wrote: theDragoon, i'm still looking for an answer to this earlier question: OnceKing, LordTolkien: You've both been the most vocal throughout this game so far, yet you've been very quiet for the last half day. What's up? What are you reading on the current situations? I cast my vote on you before I read OnceKing's case on n1k0 and at the time you were far and away the scummiest person remaining. Right now based on what others have said about N1k0 (mainly OK's post) I have both of you as my top scum reads. To answer your question, I am willing to change my vote to n1k0 to have a majority vote on him. | ||
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theDragoon
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