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Awaiting the ForGGeddon

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3811 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-05-05 10:20:19
May 02 2013 21:26 GMT
#1
[image loading]
ForGGeddon is a special situation with no precedence. Basically legend has it that once ForGG reaches rank 1, aligulac, TL, reddit and Twitter will implode from pure whine and hate towards any statistics rating system, thus ending the world as we know it.

Hello TL

Since Eivind (TheBB) is busy writing his PhD, and me myself having just handled in my BSc, and thus having nothing but time, I will be the one doing our BI-weekly write up for you guys.

First, before you start reading, and especially before you start posting, please read http://aligulac.com/faq/ to make sure your question hasn't already been answered.

Two weeks ago the Zerg rule finally toppled thread sparked a lot of discussion, and since we love a healthy discussion, I have chosen a less sensationalistic title for this thread.

Here's the top 10 for period 83:
  1. Life 1912
  2. ForGG 1873
  3. Polt 1841
  4. Leenock 1836
  5. PartinG 1804
  6. Bomber 1798
  7. Flash 1774
  8. LucifroN 1773
  9. HyuN 1755
  10. viOLet 1742
Life celebrates his eight period in the number 1 spot, although he is losing ground and doesn't look as dominant as he has been previously. BW favorite flash makes his 2nd top 10 entry while ForGG is back on 2nd, having played a huge amount of games and improving his TvT score beyond what seems realistic at this point. In general Terran (6%) still seems to be the OP race , and Protoss (9%) are still UP according to the games

Players not in top 10 most likely to enter it soon: INnoVation and sOs who currently seems to be some of the best the Kespa teams have to offer.

And the list excluding Koreans looks like this:
  1. LucifroN 1773
  2. Sen 1711
  3. VortiX 1683
  4. Happy 1616
  5. Nerchio 1614
  6. Snute 1610
  7. Stephano 1604
  8. Kas 1596
  9. Scarlett 1581
  10. Welmu 1553
LucifroN is still by far the highest ranked foreigner, gathering lots of points from the ATC and losing mainly to YugiOh, Strelok and coinflips.

Biggest over-performing foreigner this period was Thorzain, racking in 135 points, followed closely by the Swedish mouz recruit hOpe who pulled in an impressive 133 points

With the conclusion of April, the newest balance report is also out, the entire graph can be found here.
The TvZ match-up still seems to be going in the wrong direction, being 55.3% in favor of T. PvZ is as close to balance as seems possible, going up to 49.1% leaving the Zerg with only a slight advantage. Finally the PvT match-up have improved a lot going from 42.9% to 47.6%.

Finally we have a few cool new features. My personal favorite (because it was my idea) is the addition of stories to the player graphs. MC is the first player to have a few stories added to his graph, the idea is that, once we get time for it, we will show important events on players' graphs to create a way for people to identify how the rating performance and tournament performance correlates. These stories include major tournament wins, all-kills etc. We would love suggestions for good matches useful as "stories", however before you begin suggesting, the following will of course be added when we have time: GSL, MLG, IEM, DH, WCG, WCS, IPL, TSL etc.

The other great new feature is actually from Liquipedia. It is now possible to link a players aligulac profile from LP using |aligulac=xx , where xx is the players aligulac number, which can be found in the URL of each players profies. This works exactly like linking TLPD pages to a LP page. So if your favorite players doesn't already have his aligulac page linked on LP, get cracking

As always, if you want to contribute, we are always looking for more volunteers. If you have anything to contribute you can get in touch with us using:
  • This thread.
  • Twitter @Sc2Aligulac.
  • PM. Me or TheBB
  • IRC: #aligulac on quakenet.
  • E-mail to evfonn(at)gmail(dot)com.
  • Issue list on GitHub.
  • Pilgrimage to Zürich. TheBB will find you.


Shoutouts to the new guys nzcempin, Shellshock and netbattler. More bots and more programmers is always great. Also a shoutout to TLO who reached his highest aligulac rating last period.

Thanks for reading and we'll be back with more debate inflicting statistics in 2 weeks.

+ Show Spoiler [ForGG too high, Kespa too low?????] +
On April 18 2013 22:52 Grovbolle wrote:
Okay.

Since there are SO many wrong interpretations in this thread already, I will try to explain some things about the site. First off, the rating is based SOLELY on results, not playstyle, not total domination, not tournament results, and not on stuff like streams/replays as some guy thought. ONLY WINS MATTER. Meaning that a win in an online qualifier Bo3 is the same as beating someone in Ro4 GSL. However, the likelihood of facing a highly rated opponent in GSL is bigger than in WCS EU Qualifier Ro64.

Here are my POV on some claims made:
ForGG is not 4th best in world: Agreed
Kespa players are underrated: Agreed


Picture the entire pool of points as one big circle

[image loading]

The circle only grows in one way, when new players enter the pool, this creates a bit of inflation (similar to chess ELO and amount of chess GMs).

How does a player gain points?
Simply by overperforming, meaning that if you are set to lose 2-1 against someone, and beat him 0-2, you gain points in the given matchup (vT, vZ or vP).

Why are the Kespa players so underrated?
The Kespa players have very few games compared to the rest, and they mostly play each other, meaning that the total "pool of points" that most Kespa players are playing for grows very slowly. Players like Flash, Rain, Innovation (Bogus), PartinG etc. are bringing points from the other "pools" into the Kespa pool, thus raising the amount of points being fought over.

Why is ForGG so highly rated?
It is true that ForGG recently plowed a hell of a lot of mediocre terrans, boosting his TvT to a somewhat suspicious high, the amount of games ForGG plays, plus the fact that he owned A LOT of 900-1200 rated players in the specific match up gave him a lot of points, which he is losing to higher skilled but still lower rated players.

The system had a huge shock with the entry of 100+ Kespa pros, who all started at 1000 rating, but who are arguably a lot stronger. It will take a significant period of time, and amount of games from these pros, to give the system time to "transfer" points to the Kespa players, and thus accurately reflect the skill level of the Kespa players in the ranking.

Basically, the best way for this system to be 100% accurate is when everybody plays everybody, so points transfer freely, however there is still a huge disconnection between local and global scenes, as shown by TheBB in this thread.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=396566

Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
May 02 2013 21:33 GMT
#2
Even though it's mentioned in the OP, people will still say something, so I want to point out that INnoVation's performance today has already put him into the top 10 if you look at the actual website. sOs is at 14
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
Kasaraki
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
Denmark7115 Posts
May 02 2013 21:36 GMT
#3
Not only do you understand math, you're also a wizard with photoshop. Kudos!
Weavel
Profile Joined January 2010
Finland9221 Posts
May 02 2013 21:40 GMT
#4
Really liking that story feature. Good job keeping Aligulac updated.
Life/Seed//Mvp/NaNiwa fighting! ZeNEX forever!
Sissors
Profile Joined March 2012
1395 Posts
May 02 2013 21:45 GMT
#5
Is there any special reason known for so few toss in the top 10? If you look at GM statistics toss has normal representation. So has toss some problems with a too low skill ceiling? Or is it just random that there are few toss in absolute top?
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3811 Posts
May 02 2013 21:47 GMT
#6
On May 03 2013 06:45 Sissors wrote:
Is there any special reason known for so few toss in the top 10? If you look at GM statistics toss has normal representation. So has toss some problems with a too low skill ceiling? Or is it just random that there are few toss in absolute top?

Great question.

Tosses doesn't seem to win consistently enough to enter our top 10. A player like sOs has been really good and consistent, and is currently working his way up the ranks and will most likely join PartinG in the top 10 in a few periods time. I haven't got nearly enough game knowledge to answer your question though. Tosses are good, only a few are top 10 good. (Currently)
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
a_flayer
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Netherlands2826 Posts
May 02 2013 21:48 GMT
#7
Where is Naniwa in the foreigner top 10?

Silly "statistics". Completely meaningless.
When you came along so righteous with a new national hate, so convincing is the ardor of war and of men, it's harder to breathe than to believe you're a friend. The wars at home, the wars abroad, all soaked in blood and lies and fraud.
ratbert
Profile Joined July 2011
Germany1041 Posts
May 02 2013 21:49 GMT
#8
ha! I've been eagerly awaiting another post like this since the last one. Thanks for doing this, I admire your work and dedication!
what if Nat Pagle and RNGesus are the same person?
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
May 02 2013 21:49 GMT
#9
On May 03 2013 06:48 a_flayer wrote:
Where is Naniwa in the foreigner top 10?

Silly "statistics". Completely meaningless.

He's 12th because he hadnt been performing as well the last few months but made a big resurgence with dreamhack
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
Wintex
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Norway16838 Posts
May 02 2013 21:50 GMT
#10
go fOrGG

Thanks, Aligulac updaters.
The Bomber boy
GranDGranT
Profile Joined April 2011
Sri Lanka2141 Posts
May 02 2013 21:52 GMT
#11
Wish ForGG wasn't such a baby
All Dota 2 casters are bad at their job
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3811 Posts
May 02 2013 22:01 GMT
#12
On May 03 2013 06:36 Kasaraki wrote:
Not only do you understand math, you're also a wizard with photoshop. Kudos!

If you look closely, you can see that it is MS Paint being used. But you have to look VERY closely. Also, TheBB understands math, I am just a wizard.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Qwyn
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States2779 Posts
May 02 2013 22:19 GMT
#13
I just love the title. ForGGeddon, ROFL.

<3 me some ForGG. All these top players are awesome.
"Think of the hysteria following the realization that they consciously consume babies and raise the dead people from their graves" - N0
fezvez
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
France3021 Posts
May 03 2013 03:21 GMT
#14
Good job team Aligulac.

Your stats are probably the most accurate anyway.
Goldfish
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
2230 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-05-03 03:28:20
May 03 2013 03:27 GMT
#15
On May 03 2013 06:49 Shellshock1122 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 03 2013 06:48 a_flayer wrote:
Where is Naniwa in the foreigner top 10?

Silly "statistics". Completely meaningless.

He's 12th because he hadnt been performing as well the last few months but made a big resurgence with dreamhack


Yeah, plus the data rates consistency.

Just because a player owns at one tournament, doesn't mean they're top 10 already.

Only if they can keep doing well at tournaments, will they eventually move up in the rankings and be listed as such.

Statistics like these need time to work out.
https://connect.microsoft.com/WindowsServerFeedback/feedback/details/741495/biggest-explorer-annoyance-automatic-sorting-windows-7-server-2008-r2-and-vista#details Allow Disable Auto Arrange in Windows 7+
docvoc
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States5491 Posts
May 03 2013 03:43 GMT
#16
On May 03 2013 06:49 Shellshock1122 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 03 2013 06:48 a_flayer wrote:
Where is Naniwa in the foreigner top 10?

Silly "statistics". Completely meaningless.

He's 12th because he hadnt been performing as well the last few months but made a big resurgence with dreamhack

nani will be #1... or at least higher than Thorzaine, either way.
User was warned for too many mimes.
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-05-03 03:48:42
May 03 2013 03:44 GMT
#17
On May 03 2013 12:43 docvoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 03 2013 06:49 Shellshock1122 wrote:
On May 03 2013 06:48 a_flayer wrote:
Where is Naniwa in the foreigner top 10?

Silly "statistics". Completely meaningless.

He's 12th because he hadnt been performing as well the last few months but made a big resurgence with dreamhack

nani will be #1... or at least higher than Thorzaine, either way.

He's already pretty far ahead of Thorzain. The last few months were even more unkind to him, but like the op says, he did have the largest gain in the last period.

rankings filtered for foreigners
http://www.aligulac.com/periods/84/?page=1&sort=&race=ptzrs&nats=foreigners
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
docvoc
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States5491 Posts
May 03 2013 04:00 GMT
#18
On May 03 2013 12:44 Shellshock1122 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 03 2013 12:43 docvoc wrote:
On May 03 2013 06:49 Shellshock1122 wrote:
On May 03 2013 06:48 a_flayer wrote:
Where is Naniwa in the foreigner top 10?

Silly "statistics". Completely meaningless.

He's 12th because he hadnt been performing as well the last few months but made a big resurgence with dreamhack

nani will be #1... or at least higher than Thorzaine, either way.

He's already pretty far ahead of Thorzain. The last few months were even more unkind to him, but like the op says, he did have the largest gain in the last period.

rankings filtered for foreigners
http://www.aligulac.com/periods/84/?page=1&sort=&race=ptzrs&nats=foreigners

Oh wow, Nani is really far ahead O.o, by 31 positions. Nani is one of my favorite foreigners, partially because his twitter is hilarious :3, so this is awesome! Thanks SS .
User was warned for too many mimes.
Vasoline73
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States7816 Posts
May 03 2013 04:16 GMT
#19
FORGG WILL RISE AGAIN! ARENA MSL <3
Blargh
Profile Joined September 2010
United States2103 Posts
May 03 2013 04:19 GMT
#20
Lucifron > Innovation! ^_~
Does playing more tournaments and getting top 8 bring the rank up more than placing first in one tournament? I suppose Aligulac uses a more long-term ranking system.
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