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Awaiting the ForGGeddon - Page 4

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Scarecrow
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Korea (South)9175 Posts
May 05 2013 01:54 GMT
#61
On May 05 2013 06:29 TheBB wrote:
I've said it before, and I don't mind repeating, that I think people put too much weight on titles and prizes, and too little weight on steady positive winrates.

Well if Bear moved to SEA he'd have a steady positive winrate too, it's all about the caliber of opponents.
Yhamm is the god of predictions
GTPGlitch
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
5061 Posts
May 05 2013 02:21 GMT
#62
Why don't players lose points when they retire (ex Puzzle, Coca)

They just stayed at the level they were at through their LoL periods and I feel like that shouldn't really happen :<
Jo Byung Se #1 fan | CJ_Rush(reborn) fan | Liquid'Jinro(ret) fan | Liquid'Taeja fan | oGsTheSuperNada fan | Iris[gm](ret) fan |
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-05-05 07:22:28
May 05 2013 07:17 GMT
#63
On May 05 2013 11:21 GTPGlitch wrote:
Why don't players lose points when they retire (ex Puzzle, Coca)

They just stayed at the level they were at through their LoL periods and I feel like that shouldn't really happen :<

Since they haven't lost any points after coming back, they must have been performing at that level, so it seems justified to me, mathematically.
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
Emzeeshady
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
Canada4203 Posts
May 05 2013 07:20 GMT
#64
--- Nuked ---
Figgy
Profile Joined February 2011
Canada1788 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-05-05 08:45:44
May 05 2013 08:35 GMT
#65
On May 05 2013 05:50 WindCalibur wrote:
I feel like people should get banned or warned for saying the same thing about people rating too high etc again and again without reading more in the OP on how and why some of players are higher or lower than they should be.


They are way higher than they are because unlike Chess ELO, beating up on 1500 scrubs can get you up to 3k if you dodge every decent player in existance.

It's like if we get a Chess GM and throw him in a random Chess Club in the middle of nowhere where the top player is 2k rated.

He will never even come close to getting above 2400 even if he has a 100% win record until he faces other Grandmasters, but in this system ForGG will be 3000 and best on the planet despite never facing a decent player in his whole life.

I'm still curious why you don't just switch over to Chess ELO completely but adjust the amount of games for a stable rating and adjust for point decay. Wouldn't that just solve every single one of these ridiculous problems?

It would also make it so Kespa players don't have to play 30 games against other top Koreans just to get ahead of ForGG <_<
Bug Fixes Fixed an issue where, when facing a SlayerS terran, completing a hatchery would cause a medivac and 8 marines to randomly spawn nearby and attack it.
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3815 Posts
May 05 2013 08:40 GMT
#66
On May 05 2013 17:35 Figgy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2013 05:50 WindCalibur wrote:
I feel like people should get banned or warned for saying the same thing about people rating too high etc again and again without reading more in the OP on how and why some of players are higher or lower than they should be.


They are way higher than they are because unlike Chess ELO, beating up on 1500 scrubs can get you up to 3k if you dodge every decent player in existance.

It's like if we get a Chess GM and throw him in a random Chess Club in the middle of nowhere where the top player is 2k rated.

He will never even come close to getting above 2400 even if he has a 100% win record until he faces other Grandmasters, but in this system ForGG will be 3000 and best on the planet despite never facing a decent player in his whole life.

While I do understand you are just trying to make a point. No player has reached 2k under the current rating system.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Figgy
Profile Joined February 2011
Canada1788 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-05-05 08:48:16
May 05 2013 08:46 GMT
#67
On May 05 2013 17:40 Grovbolle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2013 17:35 Figgy wrote:
On May 05 2013 05:50 WindCalibur wrote:
I feel like people should get banned or warned for saying the same thing about people rating too high etc again and again without reading more in the OP on how and why some of players are higher or lower than they should be.


They are way higher than they are because unlike Chess ELO, beating up on 1500 scrubs can get you up to 3k if you dodge every decent player in existance.

It's like if we get a Chess GM and throw him in a random Chess Club in the middle of nowhere where the top player is 2k rated.

He will never even come close to getting above 2400 even if he has a 100% win record until he faces other Grandmasters, but in this system ForGG will be 3000 and best on the planet despite never facing a decent player in his whole life.

While I do understand you are just trying to make a point. No player has reached 2k under the current rating system.


No one has reached 2k under the current system because there are massively more games played under Chess ELO and 100 years worth of Inflation, it was an example.

Typical Chess GM is 2400+ ELO atm and due to inflation there are many more today than there were 60 years ago.
Bug Fixes Fixed an issue where, when facing a SlayerS terran, completing a hatchery would cause a medivac and 8 marines to randomly spawn nearby and attack it.
slowbacontron
Profile Joined October 2012
United States7722 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-05-05 09:27:35
May 05 2013 09:26 GMT
#68
One thing that is possibly bugging people is the fact that Aligulac ratings fluctuate pretty wildly compared to what one might be used to. Reading Figgy's post gave me this idea: Check a chess player's ELO over time and a SC2 player's Aligulac over time.

As just an example, here's how Anand (first player to pop into my head) has been doing http://ratings.fide.com/id.phtml?event=5000017 Since February, Anand has played 29 games that count toward his ELO. What is the net change over that time? Three points (I think, I'm not sure how I should interpret the graph). Now see ForGG's rating history http://aligulac.com/players/34-ForGG/period/83/. Over a mere 13 days and 19 games, his rating has changed fifty-five points! That is a huge difference.

Now, I am NOT trying to solve any problems here. I know that Kespa's ratings are changing with the same parameters as ForGG's, and I also am aware that ForGG has been playing SC2 for months whereas Anand has been playing chess for literally decades. But I am just saying that this high ratings change might be one source of shock to people who see Aligulac.
jjakji fan
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3815 Posts
May 05 2013 10:03 GMT
#69
On May 05 2013 18:26 slowbacontron wrote:
One thing that is possibly bugging people is the fact that Aligulac ratings fluctuate pretty wildly compared to what one might be used to. Reading Figgy's post gave me this idea: Check a chess player's ELO over time and a SC2 player's Aligulac over time.

As just an example, here's how Anand (first player to pop into my head) has been doing http://ratings.fide.com/id.phtml?event=5000017 Since February, Anand has played 29 games that count toward his ELO. What is the net change over that time? Three points (I think, I'm not sure how I should interpret the graph). Now see ForGG's rating history http://aligulac.com/players/34-ForGG/period/83/. Over a mere 13 days and 19 games, his rating has changed fifty-five points! That is a huge difference.

Now, I am NOT trying to solve any problems here. I know that Kespa's ratings are changing with the same parameters as ForGG's, and I also am aware that ForGG has been playing SC2 for months whereas Anand has been playing chess for literally decades. But I am just saying that this high ratings change might be one source of shock to people who see Aligulac.

While I do agree. People also seem to want every "flavor of the month" player to be in top 3. How does one do both?
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
CamoPillbox
Profile Joined April 2012
Czech Republic229 Posts
May 05 2013 10:06 GMT
#70
who is lucinfron?
Czech Terran(Hots) player
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3815 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-05-05 10:20:57
May 05 2013 10:10 GMT
#71
On May 05 2013 19:06 CamoPillbox wrote:
who is lucinfron?

http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/LucifroN
Edit: Yeah I both spelled it right and wrong in the OP. Confusion complete
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Kihshra
Profile Joined July 2012
178 Posts
May 05 2013 10:56 GMT
#72
On May 05 2013 05:46 Nerchio wrote:
If a guy that doesn't scout in more than 50% of the games gets even close to rank1 it means something is wrong with your ranking.

I know you're angry at ForGG cause he kicks your ass all the time, but that's not a reason to come here and bitch about it.
hastur420
Profile Joined March 2013
Belize178 Posts
May 05 2013 11:02 GMT
#73
On May 05 2013 07:02 Greenei wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2013 05:46 Nerchio wrote:
If a guy that doesn't scout in more than 50% of the games gets even close to rank1 it means something is wrong with your ranking.


Or maybe you should read the fucking OP...


or maybe one could think even if there is an explanation for it, that the rating is worthless if such a thing happens

funny how dorks jump on the opportunity to be an ass with a progamer just because they can
Scarecrow
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Korea (South)9175 Posts
May 05 2013 11:03 GMT
#74
On May 05 2013 19:56 Kihshra wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2013 05:46 Nerchio wrote:
If a guy that doesn't scout in more than 50% of the games gets even close to rank1 it means something is wrong with your ranking.

I know you're angry at ForGG cause he kicks your ass all the time, but that's not a reason to come here and bitch about it.

3:2 over the last period is hardly an ass-kicking.
Yhamm is the god of predictions
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3815 Posts
May 05 2013 11:19 GMT
#75
Actually, Nerchio has a winning record against ForGG. (Not sure on their ladder shenanigans)
http://aligulac.com/results/search/?op=search&after=&before=&players=forgg
nerchio&eventtext=&bo=all&offline=both&game=all
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Kihshra
Profile Joined July 2012
178 Posts
May 05 2013 11:26 GMT
#76
On May 05 2013 20:19 Grovbolle wrote:
Actually, Nerchio has a winning record against ForGG. (Not sure on their ladder shenanigans)
http://aligulac.com/results/search/?op=search&after=&before=&players=forgg
nerchio&eventtext=&bo=all&offline=both&game=all

I'm talking about ladder games
slowbacontron
Profile Joined October 2012
United States7722 Posts
May 05 2013 19:43 GMT
#77
On May 05 2013 19:03 Grovbolle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2013 18:26 slowbacontron wrote:
One thing that is possibly bugging people is the fact that Aligulac ratings fluctuate pretty wildly compared to what one might be used to. Reading Figgy's post gave me this idea: Check a chess player's ELO over time and a SC2 player's Aligulac over time.

As just an example, here's how Anand (first player to pop into my head) has been doing http://ratings.fide.com/id.phtml?event=5000017 Since February, Anand has played 29 games that count toward his ELO. What is the net change over that time? Three points (I think, I'm not sure how I should interpret the graph). Now see ForGG's rating history http://aligulac.com/players/34-ForGG/period/83/. Over a mere 13 days and 19 games, his rating has changed fifty-five points! That is a huge difference.

Now, I am NOT trying to solve any problems here. I know that Kespa's ratings are changing with the same parameters as ForGG's, and I also am aware that ForGG has been playing SC2 for months whereas Anand has been playing chess for literally decades. But I am just saying that this high ratings change might be one source of shock to people who see Aligulac.

While I do agree. People also seem to want every "flavor of the month" player to be in top 3. How does one do both?

Well, it seems to me that ForGG is not most people's flavor of the month I don't know.
jjakji fan
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3815 Posts
May 05 2013 20:53 GMT
#78
On May 06 2013 04:43 slowbacontron wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2013 19:03 Grovbolle wrote:
On May 05 2013 18:26 slowbacontron wrote:
One thing that is possibly bugging people is the fact that Aligulac ratings fluctuate pretty wildly compared to what one might be used to. Reading Figgy's post gave me this idea: Check a chess player's ELO over time and a SC2 player's Aligulac over time.

As just an example, here's how Anand (first player to pop into my head) has been doing http://ratings.fide.com/id.phtml?event=5000017 Since February, Anand has played 29 games that count toward his ELO. What is the net change over that time? Three points (I think, I'm not sure how I should interpret the graph). Now see ForGG's rating history http://aligulac.com/players/34-ForGG/period/83/. Over a mere 13 days and 19 games, his rating has changed fifty-five points! That is a huge difference.

Now, I am NOT trying to solve any problems here. I know that Kespa's ratings are changing with the same parameters as ForGG's, and I also am aware that ForGG has been playing SC2 for months whereas Anand has been playing chess for literally decades. But I am just saying that this high ratings change might be one source of shock to people who see Aligulac.

While I do agree. People also seem to want every "flavor of the month" player to be in top 3. How does one do both?

Well, it seems to me that ForGG is not most people's flavor of the month I don't know.

Personally, I believe that INnoVation is probably the best player in the world right now.
People need to realize that no rating system, which isn't being tampered with, can put him #1 so fast without giving up on the prediction power. Then factor in all the Kespa players we know close to nothing about and we have the issue.

Honestly, as soon as a few players beat ForGG in TvT, it should stabilize.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
slowbacontron
Profile Joined October 2012
United States7722 Posts
May 06 2013 00:01 GMT
#79
On May 06 2013 05:53 Grovbolle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2013 04:43 slowbacontron wrote:
On May 05 2013 19:03 Grovbolle wrote:
On May 05 2013 18:26 slowbacontron wrote:
One thing that is possibly bugging people is the fact that Aligulac ratings fluctuate pretty wildly compared to what one might be used to. Reading Figgy's post gave me this idea: Check a chess player's ELO over time and a SC2 player's Aligulac over time.

As just an example, here's how Anand (first player to pop into my head) has been doing http://ratings.fide.com/id.phtml?event=5000017 Since February, Anand has played 29 games that count toward his ELO. What is the net change over that time? Three points (I think, I'm not sure how I should interpret the graph). Now see ForGG's rating history http://aligulac.com/players/34-ForGG/period/83/. Over a mere 13 days and 19 games, his rating has changed fifty-five points! That is a huge difference.

Now, I am NOT trying to solve any problems here. I know that Kespa's ratings are changing with the same parameters as ForGG's, and I also am aware that ForGG has been playing SC2 for months whereas Anand has been playing chess for literally decades. But I am just saying that this high ratings change might be one source of shock to people who see Aligulac.

While I do agree. People also seem to want every "flavor of the month" player to be in top 3. How does one do both?

Well, it seems to me that ForGG is not most people's flavor of the month I don't know.

Personally, I believe that INnoVation is probably the best player in the world right now.
People need to realize that no rating system, which isn't being tampered with, can put him #1 so fast without giving up on the prediction power. Then factor in all the Kespa players we know close to nothing about and we have the issue.

Honestly, as soon as a few players beat ForGG in TvT, it should stabilize.

Definitely true, but what if, as Figgy pointed out, ForGG simply stays in his region and beats up on Europeans that aren't as good as he is? Aligulac continues to predict 2-1s for many of his matches, and as long as he can 2-0 them, his rating will rise to impossible heights. We should start a campaign to fund ForGG's travels to more Korean tournaments
jjakji fan
DusTerr
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
2520 Posts
May 06 2013 00:24 GMT
#80
On May 05 2013 19:56 Kihshra wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2013 05:46 Nerchio wrote:
If a guy that doesn't scout in more than 50% of the games gets even close to rank1 it means something is wrong with your ranking.

I know you're angry at ForGG cause he kicks your ass all the time, but that's not a reason to come here and bitch about it.

I still remember Stim to the Win finals where Nerchio roach rushed a blind cc-gas-rax build by ForGG in 3/4 wins! :D
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