by Waxangel

Group H: Judgment Day
STX_Innovation, EG.Stephano.RC, MVP.DongRaeGu, ST_Hack

All things come to those who wait. For over a year, StarCraft fans had been waiting for Stephano to finally accept the ultimate challenge known as Code S. At every other tournament around world, up against opposition of the highest caliber, Stephano had proved beyond a doubt that he was the greatest non-Korean player in the world. His prowess against even top Korean players earned him an open invitation to the GSL, one that he declined season after frustrating season. Instead, Stephano chose to tease his fans, making remarks about retirement and taking brief trips to Korea that amounted to nothing. All the while he continued to stuff his coffers, deaf to the cries of fans in and outside of Korea who wanted him to move onto a pursuit more worthy of his skill.

It's been a long time coming, but now we will finally get our wish . With the Wings of Liberty chapter of the GSL coming to an end, Stephano has decided to grace Code S with his presence. Already the best non-Korean to play the game, success in Code S would make Stephano one of the greatest, period.

Some will complain that Stephano came too late. While he isn't slumping by any means, this is far from the ideal time to play in a Code S. In late 2011, his ling-infestor style would have confounded Korean Terrans. In early 2012, his 12-minute roach max would have annihilated Korean Protosses. Now, his once revolutionary strategies have been dissected, imitated, and absorbed into the standard Zerg playbook. Stephano's Zerg vs. Zerg, while never his strong suit, was never such a liability as it is now. But what can be done? Better late than never.

Still, there are strengths Stephano will always have, no matter how time passes. He has an incredible instinct for the game, and has unparalleled skill at engagements. Dustin Browder is right; skilled players will split up their units, use them in a more effective manner that clearly differentiates them from the rest. Watching Stephano maneuver his troops, set up in a perfect formation, and destroy his opponent's army will always be a thing of beauty.

His first opponent is one of last season's semi-finalists in STX_Innovation, who like many other KeSPA players is still awkwardly finding his place in StarCraft II. BW elitists and KeSPA loyalists (as well as SC2 fans who just want a breath of fresh air) have had a tough time finding the player to hold their banner. Rain looked like he was all but destined for greatness, but he has stumbled rather severely in recent weeks. On a smaller scale, that's been the story for most of the hyped KeSPA players, as they can look like the fastest rising player one week, and have all their flaws exposed the next. In Innovation's case, he had an amazing, out of nowhere run to the Code S semi-finals that briefly made him KeSPA's top Terran. However, he failed to be anything more than merely good in the proceeding Proleague season, a disappointment for a player who was supposed to be the next big thing.

This is exactly the kind of opportunity Innovation needs to take advantage of to recover his position. He needs to do what Soulkey did last night and make up for a so-so spell in the Proleague with a dominating beatdown of established SC2 players in the GSL. Everyone's eyes will be on this group to track Stephano's progress, so there won't be a more perfect opportunity for Innovation to rebound.

MVP.DongRaeGu happens to be in this group as well, and this will be one of the few times in his career where he's overshadowed. DongRaeGu has a great story as well, even if it is somewhat less compelling than that of the best foreigner in the world taking on a once in a lifetime test.

Many will be familiar with DongRaeGu's 'slump' that started after he won MLG Spring Championship last year. While he never fell out of Code S or could ever be called even an average player, he definitely dropped out of the top tier. Some will point out his OSL 2nd place run as a sign that he was still playing well, but there's another way to look at it. OSL was actually rock bottom for DRG, lower than his losses in the GSTL and GSL that prevented him from playing in his hometown of Busan. Rock bottom was going through a deceptively easy OSL bracket and making it to the final, only to be brutally destroyed by Rain in a series that vividly demonstrated he was no longer the player he was before.

That's when DRG's real rehabilitation started, and he began the process of regaining his old, top of the world form. Ever since, DongRaeGu has been placing slightly better at each tournament, but more importantly he's been beating better opponents and is just playing better in his games. DRG is starting to show a dominance we haven't seen since last summer, and if he can fully return to his Code S winning form from one year ago, then there are few who could hope to stop him in this tournament.

Poor ST_Hack! All he wanted was to show good games and further his career a little more. Sadly, he's going to end up being the guy who either ruins DongReGu's revival, or the guy who is sacrificed for its sake. Hack has slowly but surely improved his skill over the course of a year, staying out of the spotlight while improving his Code A and Up/Down finishes before finally breaking through into Code S. Hack definitely has a bit of sleeper potential in this group. He already surprised viewers last season by narrowly squeezing through his Ro32 group, and he looks to have improved since then if his IPL6 preliminary performance is anything to go by. He made it through Crank, HogU, Squirtle, and Losira to reach the semis of the second international qualifier, which is a very respectable result. Incidentally, DongRaeGu was in that qualifier as well, who beat Hack en route to winning it all and a paid trip to IPL6.

Overall outlook and predictions:

If only because of the prospect of a Stephano ZvZ, DongRaeGu is the favorite to top this group. No other player in the group can say he has a match that could be called even the least bit easy. Just in general, DongRaeGu has been in great shape, and the only player who's been able to stop him lately has been Startale's Life, who happens to be the best player in the world. Even though we haven't seen him play that much ZvT lately, DRG has given us reason to have faith.

With two Terrans in the group, Stephano has a pretty decent chance to qualify. It sucks for him that if he does play a Zerg, that Zerg will be an excellent ZvZ player at that, but it's not worth complaining about when he got a one Zerg group in a fourteen Zerg tournament. Stephano should be slightly favored over Innovation in a macro game, but Innovation's ability to execute deadly timing attacks and cheeses makes their head to head a fairly even one. Barring some incredible ZvZ epiphany gained in practice, Stephano will probably lose to DongRaeGu, which means he's going to have to win two ZvT's to advance. Not a great proposition, nor a bad one.

Overall, I would say DRG is favored, with Hack, Stephano, and Innovation all having a fair shot at making it through as well. Hack has a slightly disadvantage from having to face DRG initially, while it's a toss-up between Stephano and Innovation to get through, depending on who takes their head to head(s). The pick? Vive La Révolution!

Stephano > Innovation
DongRaeGu > Hack
DongRaeGu > Stephano
HacK > Innovation
Stephano > Hack

DongRaeGu and Stephano advance.