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IPL5, winratios by race. Calculations ! :)

Forum Index > SC2 General
Post a Reply
1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 Next All
raQn
Profile Joined October 2012
Poland21 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-02 00:51:43
December 01 2012 22:02 GMT
#1
** Please read whole post or at least part where I explain "Overall" term used in my results thanks! ***
*** Thanks Jebediah for those mapstats, link to post http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17090758 ***

Hello, out of curiosity I've calculated winratios by race for winners bracket (1-5 round) and losers bracket (1-7 round) of IPL 5 Tournament, so its quite up-to-date info. If anybody interested I can send excel file in which every calculation was proceed. Just PM.

Other thing I want to tell is that I feel it is pointless to calculate winratios for Final Bracket of IPL5 because there is only one terran left Source of data that I was using is
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/IGN_ProLeague_Season_5/Main_Event

And please keep balance QQ as far as possible away from this thread! Thanks in advance.

Before we look into results, I want to explain few things.
Xrace wins% formula: sum of race wins in specific MU divided by amount of same MUs. For example Zerg wins% vs Terran = 13 zerg wins against terran divided by 19 TvZs (see source)
"Overall" result includes every win of specific race (even in mirrors) divided by all matches in analysed bracket.
Ok, let's go!

Results:
Winners Bracket round 1-5:

Matches (not maps) played: 59
ZvT played: 19
TvP played: 10
PvZ played: 16
Mirrors: 14
Above don't include walkovers

Zerg wins%:
- vT: 68,42%
- vP: 43,75%

Terran wins%:

- vZ: 31,58%
- vP: 60,00%

Protoss wins%:
- vZ: 56,25%
- vT: 40,00%

Losers Bracket round 1-7:

Matches (not maps) played: 54
ZvT played: 13
TvP played: 10
PvZ played: 13
Mirrors: 18
Above don't include walkovers

Zerg wins%:
- vT: 69,23%
- vP: 76,92%

Terran wins%:
- vZ: 30,77%
- vP: 50,00%

Protoss wins%:
- vZ: 23,08%
- vT: 50,00%

Average results (WB 1-5 + LB 1-7)

Zerg wins%:

- vT: 68,83%
- vP: 60,34%


Terran wins%:

- vZ: 31,17%
- vP: 55,00%

Protoss wins%:
- vZ: 39,66%
- vT: 45,00%

So.. that is all! Thanks for reading, I hope that at least one person find it helpful and/or informative. Also, I will gladly hear from you what to fix or add , Cheers
Zenbrez
Profile Joined June 2012
Canada5973 Posts
December 01 2012 22:04 GMT
#2
I hope that at least one person find it helpful and/or informative.
It's going to help a few hundred people to continue complaining about balance.

But I like it for the sake of knowing, with no intent to do anything with the information
Refer to my post.
corpuscle
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States1967 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-01 22:05:17
December 01 2012 22:04 GMT
#3
Um, seems to me like you're factoring in mirror matchups in the "overall" score, unless I'm missing something big... I don't really see how a 69% vT and 61% vP can average out to 52%, for example
From the void I am born into wave and particle
Jormundr
Profile Joined July 2011
United States1678 Posts
December 01 2012 22:07 GMT
#4
On December 02 2012 07:04 corpuscle wrote:
Um, seems to me like you're factoring in mirror matchups in the "overall" score, unless I'm missing something big... I don't really see how a 69% vT and 61% vP can average out to 52%, for example

That's the percentage of games won by the race out of total number of games played, not an average win %.
Capitalism is beneficial for people who work harder than other people. Under capitalism the only way to make more money is to work harder then your competitors whether they be other companies or workers. ~ Vegetarian
n0ise
Profile Joined April 2010
3452 Posts
December 01 2012 22:07 GMT
#5
glad to see it's all close to 50%
Viperbird
Profile Joined September 2010
United States118 Posts
December 01 2012 22:07 GMT
#6
On December 02 2012 07:04 corpuscle wrote:
I don't really see how a 69% vT and 61% vP can average out to 52%, for example

I don't understand either...
If at first you don't succeed, don't try skydiving!
Zenbrez
Profile Joined June 2012
Canada5973 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-01 22:10:46
December 01 2012 22:09 GMT
#7
On December 02 2012 07:07 Viperbird wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 07:04 corpuscle wrote:
I don't really see how a 69% vT and 61% vP can average out to 52%, for example

I don't understand either...

If I won 9-1 tvz, I have a 90% winrate.
If I won 1-4 tvp, I have a 20% winrate.

I have a 66.67% (10/15) total winrate, even though the average of the 2 is 55% (110/2).
Refer to my post.
raQn
Profile Joined October 2012
Poland21 Posts
December 01 2012 22:10 GMT
#8
On December 02 2012 07:04 corpuscle wrote:
Um, seems to me like you're factoring in mirror matchups in the "overall" score, unless I'm missing something big... I don't really see how a 69% vT and 61% vP can average out to 52%, for example


There were many mirrors among multirace MU's, so overall result is highly affected, thus downed. Formula for zerg: (wins vT+ vP+ vZ) / (ZvTs + ZvPs + ZvZs)
dUTtrOACh
Profile Joined December 2010
Canada2339 Posts
December 01 2012 22:11 GMT
#9
I don't think that the "Overall" is the average of vT & vP, it could just be combined total Win/Loss of all zergs in the tourney, maybe?
twitch.tv/duttroach
corpuscle
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States1967 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-01 22:14:19
December 01 2012 22:11 GMT
#10
On December 02 2012 07:07 Jormundr wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 07:04 corpuscle wrote:
Um, seems to me like you're factoring in mirror matchups in the "overall" score, unless I'm missing something big... I don't really see how a 69% vT and 61% vP can average out to 52%, for example

That's the percentage of games won by the race out of total number of games played, not an average win %.


The numbers still don't make any sense, though. If Terran is winning 31% of their vZ, 55% of their vP, and 50% of their vT (obviously), how does it end up as 24% overall?

If I won 9-1 tvz, I have a 90% winrate.
If I won 1-4 tvp, I have a 20% winrate.

I have a 66.67% (10/15) total winrate, even though the average of the 2 is 55% (110/2).


That's not how you calculate an average in a situation like that. You've played twice as many TvZs, so you use a weighted average, i.e. (2*90 + 20)/3 = 66.67
From the void I am born into wave and particle
WhiteSatin
Profile Joined December 2012
United States308 Posts
December 01 2012 22:11 GMT
#11
This simply confirms that TvZ is absolutely broken and in favor of Z.
Nothing new, but still interesting to have the stats supporting the claims.
-FmP-
Profile Joined October 2002
Canada85 Posts
December 01 2012 22:12 GMT
#12
Your "overall" winrates make no sense..
FLuE
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1012 Posts
December 01 2012 22:12 GMT
#13
Aside from being interesting using data like this from a single tournament is pointless. Sample size way to small.
xPabt
Profile Joined February 2012
226 Posts
December 01 2012 22:14 GMT
#14
Including mirrors makes no sense.

raQn
Profile Joined October 2012
Poland21 Posts
December 01 2012 22:14 GMT
#15
On December 02 2012 07:11 corpuscle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 07:07 Jormundr wrote:
On December 02 2012 07:04 corpuscle wrote:
Um, seems to me like you're factoring in mirror matchups in the "overall" score, unless I'm missing something big... I don't really see how a 69% vT and 61% vP can average out to 52%, for example

That's the percentage of games won by the race out of total number of games played, not an average win %.


The numbers still don't make any sense, though. If Terran is winning 31% of their vZ, 55% of their vP, and 50% of their vT (obviously), how does it end up as 24% overall?


Because we had much less terran games against other races, thus in general they will have less wins.
corpuscle
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States1967 Posts
December 01 2012 22:15 GMT
#16
On December 02 2012 07:14 raQn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 07:11 corpuscle wrote:
On December 02 2012 07:07 Jormundr wrote:
On December 02 2012 07:04 corpuscle wrote:
Um, seems to me like you're factoring in mirror matchups in the "overall" score, unless I'm missing something big... I don't really see how a 69% vT and 61% vP can average out to 52%, for example

That's the percentage of games won by the race out of total number of games played, not an average win %.


The numbers still don't make any sense, though. If Terran is winning 31% of their vZ, 55% of their vP, and 50% of their vT (obviously), how does it end up as 24% overall?


Because we had much less terran games against other races, thus in general they will have less wins.


...so are you calculating "terran winrate" as "number of games terran won"/"total games played in general"? It explains your numbers, at least, but kind of makes them useless...
From the void I am born into wave and particle
raQn
Profile Joined October 2012
Poland21 Posts
December 01 2012 22:17 GMT
#17
On December 02 2012 07:14 xPabt wrote:
Including mirrors makes no sense.



Imo, not at all. Because mirrors still stands for decent number of matches, so if we want to have realistic statistics we need to consider them. Of course ZvZ always mean that Z wins but if we want to calculate specific race wins in general we need to include all matches.
Zenbrez
Profile Joined June 2012
Canada5973 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-01 22:19:55
December 01 2012 22:17 GMT
#18
On December 02 2012 07:11 corpuscle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2012 07:07 Jormundr wrote:
On December 02 2012 07:04 corpuscle wrote:
Um, seems to me like you're factoring in mirror matchups in the "overall" score, unless I'm missing something big... I don't really see how a 69% vT and 61% vP can average out to 52%, for example

That's the percentage of games won by the race out of total number of games played, not an average win %.


The numbers still don't make any sense, though. If Terran is winning 31% of their vZ, 55% of their vP, and 50% of their vT (obviously), how does it end up as 24% overall?

Show nested quote +
If I won 9-1 tvz, I have a 90% winrate.
If I won 1-4 tvp, I have a 20% winrate.

I have a 66.67% (10/15) total winrate, even though the average of the 2 is 55% (110/2).


That's not how you calculate an average in a situation like that. You've played twice as many TvZs, so you use a weighted average, i.e. (2*90 + 20)/3 = 66.67

You're telling me that doing 10/15 does not calculate your total average win percentage..? Total wins / total games = total win rate. Don't need to weight anything. There is more than 1 way of doing simple calculations.


Aside from being interesting using data like this from a single tournament is pointless. Sample size way to small.

Sample size? He used the population. There can not physically be a bigger "sample".
Refer to my post.
Elroi
Profile Joined August 2009
Sweden5595 Posts
December 01 2012 22:19 GMT
#19
holy fuck 70% in zvt?! that is some serious payback from the BW days
"To all eSports fans, I want to be remembered as a progamer who can make something out of nothing, and someone who always does his best. I think that is the right way of living, and I'm always doing my best to follow that." - Jaedong. /watch?v=jfghAzJqAp0
Zefa
Profile Joined May 2010
United States297 Posts
December 01 2012 22:19 GMT
#20
Don't include mirrors in those calculations. There's no point.
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