EPTTL Mafia LVII
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Kreb
4834 Posts
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 09 2012 02:30 austinmcc wrote: Welcome to hours before lynch in a cycle where we keep swapping targets and we've got a claim that might be fake and maybe another lynch target and a lot of other stuff going on! Thanks for replacing, and sorry you hopped into this situation. I just replaced into a similar spot and it took me a couple days to get my bearings. Thanks. Voting in 2h 45min right? I guess its a likely bandwagon for me then. I'll try to read through the last day until then. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 09 2012 07:13 Hapahauli wrote: Welp. Gotta grab a drink or something. My apologies to BKE. I have no idea what happened with the NK's night one. They put a single stack on BC and presumably suicide-bombed DrH. Might have been a medic-save somewhere N1 - that's the only explanation I have. Going to take a dive through some filters tonight. Ok, gonna have to start asking a bit of question here to get into things. First, who is DrH? Cant find any name or role fitting that. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 09 2012 15:10 Bill Murray wrote: Notice the capitalization of scum, and him seeming to have too much knowledge. Couple that with IIoA and I'm a little suspicious. I didnt get this at least. From that post you make out that he seems to know too much. How? To me he is just speculating, which might not be worthy of a post to begin with but doesnt seem scummy to me. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 09 2012 18:40 Shady Sands wrote: Kreb, BM is just trolling. Can you look at the DP/me/Hapa exchange in the past few pages and give us your thoughts? Well, I didnt ask him about the "lulz gay" post (troll post). I asked him about him finding someone suspicious, which doesnt seem like trolling to me. Anyway. Hapa apparently was a pretty big part in the mislynch against BKE, and then afterwards comes out strong with vig call on ShiaoPi. My first feeling is it would be pretty ballsy for a mafia to that (which is obviously a good reason to do it as mafia yea yea I get that). But continuing down the discussion I do think he seems quite (emotianlly?) invested in his scumhunting and his frustration is relevant for someone who is feeling he is being questioned more than he might deserve. Apart from that, a lot of your argument seems to be based on meta. His read on Shiao, your read on him not questioning you for your supposed off-what-you-normally-do-meta. I cant really comment on much of that since I dont have any meta reads at all on any of you. In addition I do like and agree with your reasonign on Grush. Giving him "free pass" is a bad idea to me because of what the situation might turn into should we get closer to mylo/lylo with him still in it. If we're gonna have to do a 75/25 guess on him at some point anyway we might as well do it earlier since it gives us an extra cycle to discuss whatever target we might go on should we give Grush a pass. A lot of this is apparently about meta too, but people seem to agree his play is always trollish/anti-townish so I'll go with that for now. And since we're talking meta anyway, whats the reason for your meta to be so off from your normal? I did see you mentioning a being busy at work in an earlier post, but not sure if thats the whole reason.. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 09 2012 19:26 Shady Sands wrote: Emotional involvement is a null tell. Scum get angry just as much as town (thank you Blazinghand). My read on Hapa basically boils down to two things: 1) Hapa is playing off his meta while ignoring my shift on meta. 2) Hapa is being very selective/arbitrary in his scumhunting, and so far has led us to mislynch someone. Note that neither part of #2 is scummy on its own, but when taken together, are a clear scumtell. As for my own quietness, I honestly was busy. Will still be busy tomorrow and the next few days. Of course scum get angry too, but it's most certainly a different type of anger in that case. Obviously hard to distinguish from a piece of text, but one can at least try and then match it together with other possible reads. And isnt your 1) and 2) the same? You consider his scumhunting selective (2) because him ignoring your meta (1)? Thats one read, not two. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 10 2012 04:21 austinmcc wrote: strongandbig asked for my thoughts on Forumite/your case. I've got him down as one of my stronger town reads. I think that was a good request for to make, and I've obliged. Is that the only thing you're basing a town read on? There has been at least few other cases of "Can I please get some opinions on this case here?". | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 10 2012 04:36 austinmcc wrote: I'll admit that I like the opinion request when made in this way, not "Can I get another opinion?" which just sits empty and people might or might not jump on, but rather "X will you comment on Y's case, Y on X's case?" Clear request. Ought to be answered. Gives information on X and Y, as well as on the strengths/weaknesses of their cases. A lot of the read comes from minor stuff though, posts that I felt came from a townie: + Show Spoiler + On September 05 2012 00:29 strongandbig wrote: lol. If matt was going to defend himself he would have said something by now other than "hey guys maybe I'm a VT trying to draw scum shots lol". I've played a bunch of games with Mattchew recently and based on those, I think this is him as scum. For example, if I were going to fakeclaim miller as scum, I would do it very differently. However, you have to remember a couple things about Mattchew: - he's lazy as fuck as scum, except in themed games - he's pretty aggressive as town a lot of the time. The example I was thinking about was from him in TL Mafia LV, where he and I were both town. He lied about taking a shot, and then when I suggested that it made no sense for him to take a scum shot and he might have been vigged, he attacked me like a moron for the rest of the game. Unlike that, in this game his lie doesn't have any follow-up. If it was a planned-out pro-town lie, which I imagine is what he'll pretend it is, he would have been all over the first few people to attack him. Instead he just disappeared. It seems much more likely that what he did was the same thing I did in deathnote - claimed miller without first asking the hosts whether millers are self-aware, and got caught for it. The difference is, I did it in a game with a closed setup. ##vote: mattchew Gives a solid response here. There were some other "Mattchew scum cuz he's not defending himself" posts, but snb gaev a more detailed breakdown that I liked, that felt townie to me. On September 07 2012 19:18 strongandbig wrote: So why should I in particular be scared of you in particular? Is it because I should be quivering in fear of your particularly stellar scumplay? Cause something about the ridiculous way you died last game makes you seem a lot less scary, as irrational as that is. Now, I'm not sure how you think I'm buddying you. Unless you mean the "we're the only ones in the thread" thing - I see game-related buddying like 'ooh your reads are right on yeah way to lead the town' as being a lot scummier than 'hey man sup in the thread at this european hour or whatever', but whatever. I was actually just going to ignore this whole thing because there's really not much for me to say about it ("you're buddying me! No I'm not! Yes you are!" doesn't really help anything), but it made me think a bit about you this game vs last game, and I wanted to ask something. This is from last game - this game, instead it's What changed? And don't say your alignment, from how highly you talk of your own scum play I know you wouldn't be doing something as simple as coming down on different sides of a policy question as scum vs town. Now in terms of your process of elimination thing - the obvious biggest problem with that is that it assumes you're town. You've done this before, like when we were playing in mtg mafia. You even actually came right out when the last vet was dead other than you and said "but why would I say that as scum, it's setting myself up to be lynched later." That argument worked that time, but it also taught me to watch you when you start talking about vet balance. That said, I think forumite is looking scummier than you are atm. I still really don't like his "don't use meta on vets" comment, and I don't think that's been addressed since I brought it up last time Yeah I think the same person is looking bad as you do even though you just accused me of buddying you, deal with it. Stayed away from the buddying stuff, noticed a contradiction in Toad's policy posting. On September 08 2012 08:20 strongandbig wrote: Not letting someone get away with "Grush anti-town" or "Grush scum." I think this is major town points, and something I should have been doing harder. I don't like a thread filling up with people parroting a half-read when they don't seem to have taken the time to really substantiate their own thoughts with clear references to what the guy's been doing. lol i was worried toaaaaad why do you say grush is mafia? ps this is a serious question. grush is like by far the easiest rando free scumread to throw around. On September 09 2012 02:25 strongandbig wrote: I don't think grush is scum. As far as I can tell the case on him from toad started off as "grush is trying harder to look/be townie than he usually does, therefore he must be scum." The alternative explanation is that maybe he's just trying harder to look/be townie? I played/obsed the recent PTP game, where grush survived until almost the end - that game, trolly as it was, was the towniest grush has ever been. I'm still not entirely sold on BKE, but I feel much better about him than about Grush. The claim, I don't know about. It's a very easy claim for mafia to make, and we can't prove it false or true, especially since he'll be able to claim roleblocked. There's the fact that if he checked the person who was suicide bombed he should be dead, but I give zero weight to the argument that's been made by some people that his claim is too weird to be made by mafia. If the claim is fake, it's possible that he was the one who delivered the KP on BC - or one of the two if he was double stacked - and the claim is designed to be safe against trackers and real watchers. Anyway, I don't think we should ignore the case on him just because he claimed a PR. I agree with whoever it was up above who said that if we do that, then scum can just always claim PRs and get free extra life by claiming to be roleblocked. So I'm back to the original core of the case against him - his scummy shift in position on Mattchew before and after Palmar's post in the thread. Sure it's not 100% a sure thing, but I like that case better than the case on Grush, and so ##vote: broodkingexe pre-edit Reading over Austin's post right above mine it looks like some decent arguments on z-boson as well - big lists, not following up on his own stuff, inconsistency, etc. Also someone to consider. Again, finds Grush townie. Which I like. Notices the weakness in any kind of case on Grush. Is wishy-washy on BKE, bad, but goes through some reasoning as to why, chooses a decent line of reasoning to vote on - what's the case before the claim. Not my favorite, but all right. Agreed on the "feeling" townish. But I cant help noticing S&B seemed to be opposed to Toads claim of him buddying Toad, and then follows it up by "voting Toad for mayor". Though maybe thats all small talk. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
I was just done reading strongandbigs filter, and I did notice a lack of cases on anyone throughout the thread. So I do agree on that point, but mostly was gonna keep it in mind until later while I just commented on the buddying thing. But I dont quite see the problem with his reasoning on why to vote on BKE over Grush. He had two main options, liked one more than the other and there are plenty of reason not to start a completely new case from scratch even had he had one. Why doesnt it make sense? | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
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Kreb
4834 Posts
Also, it is fair to assume mafia doesnt have a vig at this point? On another topic, Murray seems town with his vigi read and the way he handled it. At least for now its believable. Forumite still really need to answer to the accusations of Toad from a while back though, which I assume he is going to. But even though people seem to be backing off the Forumite wagon I dont want that case Toad posted to go unanswered. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 10 2012 12:19 Bill Murray wrote: Ill answer that. I'd rather lynch imallinson today, contrary to what most of you believe. I'm leaving Toad/Forumite for now. If they're town, it will help the town. Actually, thinking some more about it, I retract my town-read since 10min ago on BM, at least until I get some more answers. @Murray Why would you leave Forumite considering what you (and Toad) had posted on him before? A very large part of the case against him was "town-forumite is helpful, Forumite this game isnt helpful, as such he is scum". However, now you're saying If they're town, it will help the town Why would you come to the conclusion it will help town considering hes been unhelpful so far? Also, supposing you are town, how could nailing another mafia be a bad idea? Lets look at some options: You town, Forumite anything. You should be happy to push the case on Forumite considering he's unhelpful alive. You mafia, Forumite town. If Forumites case gets pushed by someone else, you get towncred for backing off. Forumites gets left alone, you can always come back to the case later. You mafia, Forumite mafia. You try to save your mafia friend from a lynch with the reason that "he will be helpful if hes town", but should the case go to a lynch anyway, you can fall back on your read of him being scummy and can easily bus him while leaving the perception that you successfully scumhunted him. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 11 2012 07:34 Mementoss wrote: I read all of day 3 and no one gave a good reason why they are voting forumite. Can someone explain? I will get to reading through the game eventually but, the way this day is going its just killing discussion. Read Toads filter. Theres a pretty big post about it there. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
As for my own reads, (which arent really reads I guess) Im mostly annoyed with the one-line posters which you cant really get an answer out of (Murray, Grush). Murray still hasnt answered the question Z-Boson asked, and I cant say Im satisfied with his reply to me either. Apparently that fits with their meta though, which together with all the vet talk and people making posts for the sake of provoking reactions seemingly all over the place makes me very hesitant to try to push anything myself. I cant say Im familiar with what tactic generally is considered best to deal with such players either. But there has been a few cases on BM and lots of people seem suspicious of Z-Boson, so whats your take on those two Forumite? Also I do hope that we could get around to pressuring lurkers/non-contributors more too. I dont feel Im really saying much useful stuff at all and Im not committing to anything, so had I been mafia I bet I wouldve felt pretty good with all the discussions about vets/boson going on while I bandwagon with 10+ other people. And there plenty of others I dont really get a feeling for at all because they dont really contribute much at all either. Granted, Forumite kind of fits the category of non-contributors though even though he might not be lurking, so that is another reason why Im fine with that vote too. I'll ask Toad since for now he seems to be the head scumhunting dude: Whats your take on everyone not contributing? Just leave them for later? You listed 4 fairly active players as non-town (S&B, Boson, BM, Foru), supposing all of these are non-town there likely gonna be very few mafia left after that, isnt it a pretty good reason to believe theres several mafia hiding among the silent majority? | ||
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Kreb
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Kreb
4834 Posts
Heh, truth be told Im feeling pretty useless atm. Its all meta-reads going on over my head and seemingly all active posters going to town becaues they played 50 (?) games vs each other. Hopefully we get down to the point where I can try and provide reads from within the thread and feel relevant. | ||
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Kreb
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Kreb
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My vote will be on BillMurray for now. Few reasons: - This post made by Hapa before he died. It did kinda get left alone given that Toads case on Forumite was posted later same page (page 77). + Show Spoiler + On September 10 2012 01:26 Hapahauli wrote: First off, I don't buy ShiaoPi's excuse. If Shiao is moving into university as he is suggesting, I find it hard to believe he'd sign up for a Mafia game if he knew his schedule. He was also plenty active to respond to Maverick's suspicion against him - and much more frequently than the "10 minute loading time" per page he was suggesting about his internet earlier. Finally, Shiao's only standing read is an OMGUS against Maverick. Strongly suggest shooting him tonight. Also, I won't be as active for the next few hours, so I wanted to comment on... Bill Murray This is mostly based on his actions (inactions?) during the BKE lynch. Right around when I dropped the case on BKE, Bill Murray had a burst of 6 short posts, all compiled into one larger one for your convenience: I summarized the case for him and never heard back from him. The only post he made between there and after the lynch is this weak-sauce soft-push of BKE: This is the only post he makes during the BKE push. Note that he doesn’t take a stance and simply disagrees with BKE’s defense. Then, after the BKE lynch... All of a sudden, he acts as if he was against BKE the whole time. Now I’m not sure if BillMurray is capable of doing stuff like this as town (his normal posting is scummy after all), but this specific thing seems scummy as hell to me. - His unwillingness to reply to this post, to Bosons post questions or to my question. There might be more occasions but probably not needed. - Me generally disliking that way of posting. If you purposedly post scummy (which people have claimed he always does) you just make it way too easy for yourself to hide. - Him not really committing to anything and switching opinions about people all the time. He said he'd back off Forumite, voted on him anyway. He had also gone back and forth about Maverick in his filter (without explaining the reasoning of course). - Toad seemingly agreeing BM needs to die. Toad is the one one who seem to have the meta knowledge about the others, and even though he's preferring Boson/Forumite, at least it doesnt mean the meta-argumentation clears Murray of anything. - Me having a bad feeling about the Forumite case and how its unfolding. Maverick explained it well + Show Spoiler + I don't like the way these cases are being played out. By there being more than just a dominant voice of "Everyone pile on this person"- having another option forces people to choose. If everyone just says "vote for this person" and no one is offering an alternative- scum is safe to just follow along since there wasn't a realistic option. That would be about it. Im very open to change my vote should he make an effort to defend himself though, but I've got a feeling that wont happen. Short opinions about Maverick and Boson and why I dont want to vote on them for now. Maverick: With the 10 or more people I have no feeling for at all, Maverick at least made two recent posts I very much agree with as town. Not enough to put him as a clear town, but enough to not make me wanna vote on him now. Boson: I think the best explanation of his play so far was him being 3rd party. So I'll stick to that opinion about him for now. ##Vote Bill Murray | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
On September 11 2012 22:25 imallinson wrote: What would be really helpful is if you actually made a case now. You said before that you thought day three was going to be a waste now. Surely you actually contributing something, besides saying a few people are scummy, would help to alleviate that. You posting vague reads on people doesn't help town lynch scum which is the reason everyone is voting for your lynch in the first place. If you're looking for something alternative to Forumite, theres been cases last 2 or 3 pages on both him, Z-Boson and Bill Murray. You should really try and read some of those rather than just leaning back and demanding him to do the work. If he had anything to say in addition to whats been said Im sure he'd mention it. If he doesnt have anything else to add, you should read through them and make your own opinion. | ||
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