EPTI will not be banned in the first game Bluelightz is hosting
Dwarf Fortress Mini Mafia
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slOosh
3291 Posts
I will not be banned in the first game Bluelightz is hosting | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On August 06 2012 10:28 DoYouHas wrote: /in I will not be banned in the first game Bluelightz is hosting I was going to wait for GMarshal's game until I saw slOosh. We always have the most interesting games together  Oh my dear friend it has been quite a while. Hopefully we will recreate game #1 rather than #2 or #3 ... I think #4 was good until we both got shot N1/N2. Actually if #4 happens we can just join GM's next one so all is good and well  | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Anyways, any of the blue roles can be used to the "innocent child" effect. Scum are extremely limited in their ability to fakeclaim because it is a blue-wise open setup (we might not know the 2nd blue identity but we can still cc any blue claim instantly). I recommend whoever is blue to consider this and not hastily throw away a potential advantage here by claiming early (mainly tracker but same thing extends to watcher/cop). No go on double lynch. Too exploitable / volatile in a game this small. On August 08 2012 03:34 Mordanis wrote: I actually disagree that talking policy early on is bad. It is only bad when the policy talk tells scum how to get off free. "We will only lynch active players" tells scum that they can get one or two players to the late-game with as little content to hold against them as possible. On a similar note, it's probably not a good idea to discuss your heuristics for finding scum until you find examples of them in people's play. If you start talking about them right now, unless you list 173 of them, scum probably will actively avoid fitting your heuristic, thus ruining your chance of finding scum. On August 08 2012 05:23 Mordanis wrote: Wow, Forumite's accusation came much earlier than I expected. All Shiao had done was come out as anti-policy, and then when pressed came out against lying and lurking. What in that is scummy, I have no idea. I think its clear that Forumite has some type of plan hatching, but until we find out what the plan is, his early accusation is sort of weightless. It could be an attempt to draw scum out or to force townie mistakes in order to mislynch. Hey Mordanis, could you explain this contradiction? If this was an attempt to draw scum out, you have now just alerted them all with the second post, which goes against what you said in the first post. You said you are currently null on Forumite yet it seems like you are leaning a certain direction in your read of him. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
I do, however, have a question with one of your prior posts: On August 08 2012 10:08 sciberbia wrote: OK I've made brief notes on everybody. Here are the people I find sketchiest so far: Shiaopi I agree with Forumite that this post seems off. Shiaopi is no vet, yet he starts off the thread with this bravado, confidence, and authority. It just doesn't seem to fit with the more reserved Shiaopi I remember from NMM XIV. I see this post as a conscious attempt to look bold, which fits in more with scum goals than town goals. Here you take issue with the same post that your case on Forumite is based off. What are your current thoughts on ShiaoPi, and how do they play in relation with Forumite? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On August 09 2012 01:43 marvellosity wrote: my case against CL does not need to be furthered. I am unsure about aspects of Forumite which is why I particularly want it discussed. Now why don't you actually do so instead of nitpicking? Are you referring to Forumite's boldness at bringing back a potentially attention grabbing issue? On August 08 2012 20:21 Forumite wrote: Marvel, could you explain this? I had an early scumread and said so a few times, definetly not spamming the thread about it. I also said I preferred to keep the reason to myself for the moment. What was wrong about that? Why did you want me to either reveal evidence early D1 or stop with light pressure on a random townie? Because when you said the same thing to me in Movie Mafia (?), I never responded but just took it to note, thinking oh what I'm doing is being perceived as scummy better go about it a better way, and I did that as a townie. I agree it's strange but I don't see how it is an alignment indicative strange. But on that note now I find Forumite guilty of the exact reverse: the next time he mentions a scum (?) read: On August 09 2012 00:14 Forumite wrote: Clarification about my opinion of Mordanis Big posts but very few, talking about me, possible VT-claim and policy, with a lot of fluff. Overall lots of text but next to no content, which looks bad. His post about "funnily enough" asking CL feels off somehow. Mordanis needs to shape up, or at least post more. I'm anxiosly awaiting the time when CL gets back. He doesn't actually call Mordanis scum. He critiques his play in every way, but concludes with a "needs to shape up". A totally unnecessary bye for him, and moving onto waiting for CL. And he doesn't address scib's case against him but merely comments to me - either you see it as a townie pushing for your mislynch and you want that cleared up, or you think it's a scum push and you prove to everyone about it - dismissing it is a scum reaction. I think Forumite is a good D1 lynch. ##Vote: Forumite I also request that people start casting votes earlier if possible. The (for me) morning deadline is hard to be around and I want to be able to make the best decision prior. Plurality lynches are dangerous if we don't consolidate since scum votes have more sway in who they want to lynch, and I don't want my vote wasted. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On August 09 2012 02:10 marvellosity wrote: yeah - why would he bring it up with me again? It just goes to highlight the whole thing. What do you think? Like I said, it is strange but I don't find it a strong alignment indicative strange. It could be a town action trying to come to mutual understanding with another player, or it could be scum action fearful of repercussions if left unsaid and so addressing it early. I mentioned how I chose to internally take the advice (if I recall correctly), but scum could also do that in fear of being exposed. In either case I don't find it weighty enough to override my read on his general play. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Hey Hiro, could we get some current opinions / reads from you? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
In particular our votes are split pretty evenly which is worst case scenario. We should look at consolidation with what we have now - D1 lynch matters people. I'll be catching up on thread reviewing the other cases, but unless people are finding issue with the case on Forumite I urge you to consolidate. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On August 09 2012 13:01 HiroPro wrote: Why are you so unwilling to name names and call out people? I have limited time and going through the thread to make a list isn't a productive use of my time. Why are you so intent on drawing discussion away from him again? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
I'm finding general inconsistency in his posting, almost like he is making stuff up as he goes along. Explanations seem more convoluted than the situation calls for. Furthermore, he is also of the party that has not talked about the scib's case, and by his tone it seems he is null / town on Forumite, which would warrant defense of him yet he doesn't do that, i.e. doesn't care who gets lynched. Only thing I'm iffy on is the of the case against him runs directly counter to the case on Forumite and people's general excuses and hesitation to speak on the matter. I feel much more comfortable with a Forumite lynch. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Everyone should say something about Forumite. Votes should accompany whatever stance you take. Additionally, votes should start consolidating. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Which leads me to look into the prplhz lynch group based on that heuristic of being fearful of getting caught on a mislynch, where I find some independent agreement with my analysis. This will probably serve as my deadline post as I am not confident in my ability to wake up early. marvellosity: General wishy-washyness on D1 lynch I find marv to be extremely laid back / on the fence this game. He was pretty on the fence about Forumite and I thought it could have been reasonable town confusion / indecision. However as CL has pointed out, as he invites people to discuss the case he then quickly follows up with a case and vote on CL. On August 09 2012 00:16 marvellosity wrote: People should be discussing scib's case/Forumite today please. On August 09 2012 00:31 marvellosity wrote: In short, Custos Luna doesn't give a shit about town. His original quote-post of scib's was unexplained with his own opinion and served to disrupt the thread by making people talk about an irrelevant non-contradiction. He excuses himself for scumhunting. He is currently my favourite lynch target. ##Vote: Custos Luna It doesn't matter if he was truly ninja'd or not. His train of thought doesn't align - he is confused about Forumite and wants more discussion, which is totally fine, but then he follows with a case and vote on CL. On August 09 2012 00:50 marvellosity wrote: you misread: scib's case = Forumite, not scib AND forumite. i.e. I want people to be discussing Forumite (something you have avoided doing three times already on this page) but you were my current strongest read. Clear? On August 09 2012 01:43 marvellosity wrote: my case against CL does not need to be furthered. I am unsure about aspects of Forumite which is why I particularly want it discussed. Now why don't you actually do so instead of nitpicking? He calls CL his strongest read. However he doesn't push that for a lynch despite being uncertain about Forumite. Looks like he wants to be seen as involved with the case but doesn't quite take a stance, nor pushes something which is more certain to him. On August 09 2012 05:24 marvellosity wrote: I'm going to look more into the Forumite situation. Need to mull over what slOosh said to me and also see if I can make anything out of what seems to be a lot of 'meh' from people about it. On August 09 2012 08:02 marvellosity wrote: ugh this Forumite stuff is soooo dense. Ends up leaving his vote on prplhz without a final stance on Forumite we can hold him accountable to. Discrediting Mordanis while calling him town There is also the issue with the way he pressures: On August 09 2012 19:03 marvellosity wrote: Long story short, its either the worst "scum-tell" in history or a pressure vote. First off, lurking/inactivity is a really bad scum-tell. One prominent example comes to mind+ Show Spoiler + Mufaa/Skware in NMM 14, where one player was replaced because he didn't post at all in a cycle or two, and his replacement posted a total of like 4 times in 4 cycles, and 3 of them were in the first cycle he replaced into. He literally didn't post for at least 2 cycles and missed at least 2 votes, and he was town. this is so frighteningly bad I can't believe it. carry on mordanis. On August 09 2012 00:31 marvellosity wrote: In short, Custos Luna doesn't give a shit about town. His original quote-post of scib's was unexplained with his own opinion and served to disrupt the thread by making people talk about an irrelevant non-contradiction. He excuses himself for scumhunting. He is currently my favourite lynch target. ##Vote: Custos Luna This is the exact same reason that marv first votes for CL!!! Not only that, notice that he calls him bad. Again, he does it: On August 09 2012 19:34 marvellosity wrote: I'm perplexed by Mordanis's cases so far (on me or otherwise), and sorry bro, I don't know your posting well enough to understand if it's scum motivation or if they're just awful and full of contradictions. This is of course on someone who has a "town" read on. On August 10 2012 08:46 marvellosity wrote:As for Mordanis. The meta read I get off him at the moment is town because of the fact he made a case on me. The game I remember him winning as scum he basically blended into the woodwork. Taking me on doesn't seem like the kind of risk or play he'd make as scum I don't think. Notice the subtle contradiction. He is content calling Mordanis town, but is willing to openly call him bad as to discredit anything he has said / will say. This is treatment usually reserved for scum if done at all, yet this is what marv does. All in all I find marv to be scummiest out of the bunch. I'll be here for lil bit (cafe closes in ~15 minutes), and then probably try to squeeze in some posting around lunch time tomorrow. Internet problem should be fixed by the weekend though if I live that long. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
I'll be rereading in light of the flip and also the 3 deadline posts from CL, Keirathi and HiroPro, and hopefully have some thoughts ready by early today. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On August 10 2012 23:08 Custos Luna wrote: Since you've all heard my original case on Mordanis, I will start with HiroPro. Hiro's D1 posts were pretty useless. His entire filter is mostly 1 to 2 liners. He jumps on the prplhz wagon. He wants to distance himself from his scumbuddy. Could you explain how this is scummy? Because if you can't it means your read on HiroPro is entirely based off prplhz's unknown alignment. On August 09 2012 13:51 Keirathi wrote: -- Mordanis -- His play fits the way he played as town in NMM XXII so far. However, his lack of scumhunting is kind of bothering me, because even despite the verbosity and the absurb "discussion" case to start the game, he still had a reasonable case (or two?) before day 1 deadline. He did end up having good reads in that game though, once you waded through all the verbosity, so hopefully he gets some cases out soon. What's your opinion on Mordanis in light of his marv case? Also Shiaopi in general. Catching up on DYH's case. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
I think scum are quite unlikely to pull off a double lynch hammer ever since it is a 1 for 1 trade (cause it assumes you can get a mislynch without it) ... but DYH is definitely correct that giving lynch decision to your scum read makes absolutely no sense and is shirking responsibility. Shiaopi what do you make of the Mordanis - CL issue? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On August 11 2012 21:16 sciberbia wrote: on Custos Luna That said, I'm not comfortable with the overwhelming anti-CL sentiment in the thread right now. There are several things in his filter that suggest to me that he is townie. But before I try to dissuade anyone from voting him today, I'd like to see his response to DYH's case. I think it would be good if you brought them out. I'm wavering on him because his end of N1 reads included HiroPro, whom I have also had suspicions on but not yet voiced. He did it before people started to openly express that suspicion, indicating that it was probably not a temperature gauge of picking who the town thinks is scummy and going after them. @CL - Could you clarify what exactly you found suspicious in HiroPro's posting? I want to see if your train of thought is similar to mine or if you just took a stab in the dark and got lucky. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
To everyone who is dismissing Mordanis' suspicious play solely because his posting looks like that regardless of his alignment, how are we going to catch him as scum? For instance, On August 11 2012 00:04 HiroPro wrote: Mordanis is probably town. His early case on ShiaoPi was not good at all and his posting style annoys me but I feel that he's legitametly sharing his thoughts and honestly I have a hard time believing that any scum team would let Mordanis post that ShiaoPi case. I looked up Mordanis' scum play in Newbie Mafia XIV and in the scumQT he never ran anything by for double check analysis. It turns out I also happened to spec the game (guess I just forgot that I did), and from what I recall, he wasn't someone who had an inherently difficult to understand playstyle. This is a totally unwarranted excuse to call Mordanis and alleviate suspicions on him. sciberbia could I get your thoughts on CL soon? I'm wondering if this is indeed a misdirection away from Mordanis onto an easy lynch or if CL was caught doing something scummy and is backpedalling. To everyone who defended Mordanis on meta, could you please re-clarify how he is town? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On August 12 2012 08:54 Keirathi wrote: Mostly because in my thorough read-through of filters during the night phase, I started thinking that there's a much higher chance of Hiro being scum if prplhz is. If prplhz is scum, then the few actual things that Hiro did on d1 point towards him being scum as well. But why would scum Hiro feel the need to change his vote from prplhz to Forumite when town was basically evenly split? Not that its impossible for Hiro to be scum without prpl, but it makes much more sense to me to lynch prplhz first. I have a huge problem with this - it's essentially lynching for information. We either lynch HiroPro because he looks scummy regardless of prplhz or we lynch prplhz because he looks scummy regardless of HiroPro. Suggesting a pair of lynches like that in a specific order is extremely dangerous. On August 12 2012 08:18 sciberbia wrote: @slOosh I just gave my thoughts on CL, and I think now would be a good time for you to clearly state your opinion of him. I've looked over your post and reread filters and what is still left unaddressed with CL is this - he has dropped his HiroPro read in favor of the prplhz lynch, which was one of the big town cards in my mind. Words are easy - votes and lynches are where you put your money where your mouth is. He hasn't done this. I find HiroPro more scummier than CL and would vote him but I do not wish to cause an accidental double lynch. I'll be on for another hour or two if people are willing to swap from CL to HiroPro. If people are opposed or we don't have enough time I'm fine with lurker lynching prplhz. | ||
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