Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VIII
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Velinath
United States694 Posts
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Velinath
United States694 Posts
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Velinath
United States694 Posts
On March 13 2012 04:19 Gossemerr wrote: At the moment I don't see how Eleanthas is acting any more scummy than others. Regarding FirTofu, I was going to make the same case as Mementoss, but was just waiting for more posts by him / her. So, I will add my vote untill / if other information becomes available. ##Vote: FirmTofu On March 13 2012 09:57 Gossemerr wrote: Since nobody is stepping up to defend FirmTofu, minus possibly the last post by kori and a earlier change of heart by nova, I have a feeling that FirmTofu is town. That is of course unless nova and possibly kori are scum as well. I'm not changing my vote, just putting that point out there. You should NEVER vote for someone who you think is town! This is something that came up in my last game (Newbie Mafia I, if I recall correctly). Gossemerr voted for FirmTofu, said he felt like FirmTofu was town, still voted for him. That's not good play - bad town at best, scummy at worst. On that note, I'm voting more based on what I've written here and less on Nova_Terra's case. I believe that there are significant holes in that case, mainly focused around the idea of "if the relationship exists between these three players, then this case is accurate". I don't believe that's a reasonable way of scumhunting, mainly because you run the risk of getting very sidetracked. In addition, I feel that if anything, post analysis was better for Eleanthas in Nova's case, and I do wonder why Nova didn't vote for Elea (or InfernOokami7, given that there was already one vote on Inf if I read the thread correctly). I'll just put this out there - I don't trust Nova_Terra. A case will be forthcoming, but I feel that Gossemerr is a relatively good lynch based on what I've presented above, not due to NT's case. ##Vote: Gossemerr | ||
Velinath
United States694 Posts
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Velinath
United States694 Posts
what is your feeling about my separate reasoning for voting Gossemerr? In addition, do you consider this Elea/Gosse/InfernOokami case to have merit given that it analyzes based on a specific scumteam? | ||
Velinath
United States694 Posts
the major hole in your case is that you're fixated on the idea that Elea, Gosse, and InfernO are related. This may or may not be the case, and you're basing a lot of your analysis on that. If even one of your assumptions are wrong the other two are greatly weakened, and that's not okay for a strong case. Seviro brings up an excellent point in his last post: we shouldn't let our vote be influenced entirely by connections, and connections cannot be read as meaning that people are scum. | ||
Velinath
United States694 Posts
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Velinath
United States694 Posts
On March 16 2012 07:03 Gossemerr wrote: @Vel: Please see what Seviro said already. I stated in my first posts that I didn't want a no lynch situation to prolong day 1. I don't really see how thats not valid. It's invalid because you stated that you believed FT to be town. If people were okay with voting people whom they believed to be town, scum would win every game and bandwagons would be a lot easier to start (as Day 1 in this game demonstrated). I'm going to go read Elea's stuff now. | ||
Velinath
United States694 Posts
Elea hasn't even posted today, as far as I can tell. Yesterday, he voted, left, and totally disappeared. Showed back up to talk a bit about Kori and Cosine, but I find it interesting that he is completely unwilling to commit to a stance on any player. Coupled with his hardcore lurking I'm willing to vote Elea if we can form a consensus on lynching him. That said, I am still suspicious of Gosse for reasons listed above. ##Unvote: Gossemerr ##Vote: Eleanthas | ||
Velinath
United States694 Posts
On March 16 2012 07:12 Gossemerr wrote: I did not say 100% that he was town.. also it was day 1 and i did not believe in a no lynch... Also why tell us you are going to real Ele's stuff? Fluff.. I'm sorry, I did overstate that. You said he was "probably town" which implies that you are leaning towards him being town. I told you I was going to read Elea's stuff so that you'd know why I didn't respond to you if you replied quickly. | ||
Velinath
United States694 Posts
Gosse: Your last post concerns me; we can never afford to completely rule out players as you suggest. I don't think that lurking to the point of being modkilled indicates either scum or town. Case in point: one of the scum players in NMM I got modkilled for inactivity, but we had Elea, who hadn't posted in 27 hours before coming in to vote for you, flip town. Lurking as hard as these two are probably doesn't indicate anything about their alignment. phagga: That's the second time Gosse's voted a bandwagon that he doesn't really believe in. | ||
Velinath
United States694 Posts
Nova_Terra On March 11 2012 17:36 Nova_Terra wrote: Hey, Sorry, I was asleep for the last 8 hours and just woke up I agree with always pushing a lynch as long as there is aome evidence that shows that the person is likely to be scum. for instance lurkers, bad defenders, etc. i also agree with a no lynch as long as there is overwhelming evidence that shows lynch candidates as being townies. I'll just throw the EBWOP in here so it makes more sense as I go. On March 11 2012 17:44 Nova_Terra wrote: EBWOP: FirmTofu, i think the one problem with lynching lurkers is that we dont really know if they are a lurker. my point is, that when people see your last message, they are going to post, right? especially if they are scum who are lurking. if a townie just doesnt show up (so isnt lurking) i find him more likely to be killed by your list than any mafia. That being said, I think we should continue to suspect all people on that list. I guess that even includes myself. i just have a feeling that ~2 scum could be in there and will step up when their buddies tell them, "You gotta post, man!" Read this as "Lynching lurkers is a good idea except when it's not, and if they're acting like lurkers they might not actually be lurkers, so if they didn't show up and post they're not actually lurking". That's, like, the definition of lurking. NT goes on to just say "let's suspect everyone on that list just in case". We're 6 hours into the game at this point, there isn't nearly enough posting to justify a pure town read on ANYONE...of course we should be suspecting everyone this early on. This is useless filler. Okay, let's talk about this FOS mess on day 1. On March 12 2012 01:57 Nova_Terra wrote: Yeah, it was a funny coincedence that he posted that right before i woke up. i also pointed out the post before how the suspicion should also be on me. The thing is though, his post was extremely messed up and seemed very scummy. i definitely think it is worth an FOS seeing as nothing else was happening and i want him to clarify it up. its not like i voted for him yet or anything. Might as well just use this entire post rather than quoting everything that's nested inside it. First of all, reflex FOS after one post? That goes a little far, I think (never mind that FOS does nothing in this game, just inflames people and is essentially a push for early votes). Same sentiment could have been expressed as I have already - I've said already that I have a negative read on NT without making some big stink about it. Pressure plays should be vote based, because an FOS does nothing. On March 12 2012 07:16 Nova_Terra wrote: This clarifies things substantially. Lylo: a situation where town must lynch mafia or they lose. FoS: finger of suspicion. Basically trying to get you to post to defend yourself. The point i was trying to make about sloosh's play was that that other playstyle should not be overlooked, as it was a vexing position to be in as town. Thanks for the compliment about liking my play, if you meant/included me in that statement. feels nice as i've been trying to justify my apparently hastily made Finger of Suspicion. Dont think that flattery will change anything on my end though. I'll be watching... I agree with building cases on peoples posts rather than the alternative, but i am confused as to why you didnt say just that. To me it came across as if you were trying to make his post seem invalid in the eyes of others by calling it stupid. in the games i have read through, this played a big part in how the town functioned around some certain players. unrelated side note, I have a nasty trigonometry class tomorrow, might need your help cosine xD All jokes aside, I think cosine is relatively cleared of suspicion for the most part. Next, eleanthus (or something along the lines of that): The main thing that bugged me about his post was just the "lynching lurkers maybe" thing. was wishy-washy, he presented nothing new to us and we couldnt even be sure of what his decision was. also, it slightly irked me that he totally seemed to ignore pretty much everything that had happened so far. I dont find it extremely suspicious or anything, but i want him to make a nice big post like cosine's so we can read into his thoughts so far. Lastly, Lurkers and/or lurker lynches. In this case, if we cant get anything out of eleanthus, then he is likely to be the candidate of choice for lynching. however, in the high probability chance of him doing exactly what cosine did, and having no other major scum slips come out of anyone, we will likely be put into the situation where we have to lynch one of these three to avoid a no lynch. Can i propose that we should decide which one of these three (or eleanthus) we should lynch no less than 8 hours before the deadline? this means that there wont be any last minute scrambling that results in a no lynch, and also provides enough of a time buffer that we should all be able to get votes in on that person before the deadline. This also leaves them plenty of time to come back and post before this decision. Reasonable? okay, im out for the night, see you all in a few hours. I found this quote funny because A) he accuses Eleanthus of being wishy-washy on lurker lynches when I believe I've done a fairly good job of illustrating that he did the same thing with his early post, and B) we've gone from "maybe we shouldn't lynch lurkers because they might not be lurking" to "hey, let's look at lynching lurkers if we need to, in order to get a lynch in". He then goes on to move his vote off of FirmTofu later because he doesn't think that FT's lurking is actually lurking - so we're back to his first viewpoint. On March 13 2012 01:08 Nova_Terra wrote: No, I did not accuse him, however i did say that if he didnt post again and was lurking after a suspicious post that he had made, he would be a good lynch candidate. Its no more than suggesting we lynch a suspicious lurker during the day. I insisted once again on explaining the motives for my change of atitude because you seemed to ignore it and continue along your train of thought. felt that i had to clarify again so you would be sure to understand my motives. Now if you were suspicious of someone, and then somebody called you suspicious for being suspicious of that person, then went on to say the exact same reasons for also finding the person you accused of being suspicious of suspicious, wouldn't you be frustrated too? It just doesn't make sense to me. like, " This makes you seem guilty, but yeah i agree for all of the reasons you just said." And where did i threaten you? The fact that i was working on showing why i found your post to be suspicious isnt a threat. Its just what i was working on already. I didnt do it as a result or becoming mad or anything, i just wanted to show why it was strange. And once again it appears that you seem to have completely ignored my post. You should go back and read/respond to it. @Mementoss, yeah, im mad. Its because I dont understand why the rest of the town is thinking differently than me. or thinking the same and yet finding me suspicious for thinking in the way i am. It just doesnt make sense to me Eleanthas has my vote currently, until he posts up, and i think that he is the best candidate as the other 'lurkers' posted and his post was widely found suspicious. ##Vote Eleanthas So much to talk about in this post. NT OMGUS's after Sbrubbles brings up the point that his recent posts had already been defensive. The reaction's totally out of proportion to what's going on here. The interesting thing that I see here is that NT keeps on emphasizing "I didn't accuse cosine!" I disagree. On March 12 2012 01:57 Nova_Terra wrote: his post . . . seemed very scummy (emphasis mine) On March 12 2012 01:59 Nova_Terra wrote: EBWOP: and if cosine doesnt post and we dont get any other leads i feel that he would be a good lynch candidate. That's an accusation. Let's move on to the OMGUS reaction in the post @ 14:58 (it's nested). Sbrubbles sums up the post sequence rather nicely in his first post where he points out that NT accuses cosine (I've already discussed why this is an accurate portrayal), and then immediately goes on the extreme defensive when people start asking questions. How is this suspicious? I have absolutely no idea, because NT's explanation doesn't make a ton of sense. I just want to point out like posts like this are scummy. Not making any “accusations” or anything. 1. Throws the blame onto others, as if I was the scummy acting one, whereas this was his first post and the point of it was to throw suspicion onto me. 2. Seemingly purposely not understanding my argument to provoke meaningless discussion 3. Discrediting posts by calling it inexperience/carelessness 4. Not wanting to actually point a finger at me or to throw enough blame that anyone would be suspicious. First of all, calling someone a scummy poster is apparently not the same as saying they're scum. What? Secondly, I think I've made the point clear already that NT's been acting scummy in this thread. Why wouldn't Sbrubbles point out suspicions based on reading the thread - that's kind of the point of the game. Defensive, OMGUS reaction - that says scum to me. Sbrubbles isn't misunderstanding an argument when he uses NT's own posts to make his point. He's pointing out an inconsistency. I'd say TN's making a pretty clear finger point especially after his second post. Let's not forget this gem: On March 13 2012 01:10 Nova_Terra wrote: EBWOP: also, why would Sbrubbles want to pressure me for a response? compare to: 4. Not wanting to actually point a finger at me or to throw enough blame that anyone would be suspicious. I'd also like to point out at this point that Mafia is a game of information. Eliciting responses from other players helps the town; why would NT dislike the application of pressure if he was town? On March 14 2012 02:30 Nova_Terra wrote: I am in agreement with those three being good suspects for a dt to check. I want them (as well as everyone else) to come and post more. The trend seems to be posting some excuse for not posting and then not posting again. I have a couple other minor suspicions right now, but nothing worth noting, until i have a bit more to work with. DT lists are a terrible idea, because A) it gives scum the opportunity to react, knowing that the DT will be checking the people on the list and B) the DT should be investigating and breadcrumbing his own results, not going off a list that could be influenced by scum. While I do have a town read on phagga, nothing's guaranteed - what's to say that's not a scum list? Plus, you're not even taking into account the possibility of a framer. Endorsing this list is scummy play. On March 14 2012 14:53 Nova_Terra wrote: Okay, i dont have time for a long post right now, but i will come on in a few hours and hopefully respond to everything in this post. Lets just think about this for a second. Forgive me if i am wrong, but Sbrubbles didnt really present us with anything other than suspicion about me. he did it twice, i believe, and both times it was noticable. Then he dies. Of course it makes sense to suspect me, but Thats just the point. What would the mafia gain from his death if he died? nothing really, and his only big suspicion was on me. Therefore i would seem suspicious. its like framing without a framer, i guess. I voted for Gossemerr instead of tofu because i thought tofu was a townie and therefore not the target to lynch. it makes sense to avoid lynching someone you suspect as townie. By thinking Eleanthas i meant that i agreed with whoever suggested a vote on him unless he stepped up, which he did. I meant that i would probably go with him of nothing else came up and he didnt post. I apologise, i should have clarified what i thought more. sorry, i will post in a couple hours, just dont have the time, and i hate typing on an ipad. First of all, let's talk about Sbrubbles. NT does a great job WIFOMing his way out of this. "Well, it couldn't possibly be because Sbrubbles suspected me, it's because the mafia wanted me to be under closer suspicion!" We have only his word on this, and I'm not inclined to take it. WIFOM is not credible. By killing Sbrubbles, the mafia gain the benefit of silencing someone who was already suspicious of one of their members. Occam's Razor - the simplest explanation is usually the most credible. I think this applies even more here because this is a newbie game. I doubt there are going to be the same level of mindgames here as there would be in a game full of vets. NT uses the excuse of "Well, I decided Tofu was a townie" to justify his vote switch, but honestly, his vote switch was completely meaningless. The result was already set, so he could switch with impunity - in fact, you notice that he says things like On March 13 2012 05:09 Nova_Terra wrote: Truthfully i have a feeling that this vote will end up mislynching a townie. I think a mafia would be defending themselves right now. even so, i dont see how we could get much of a better lynch.... after the majority's already locked in on FT. At this point, he's able to backfill and make these posts, since it doesn't matter whether he votes for FT or someone else. Was he the motivator of this vote? No, but he certainly didn't object until after there was already a majority. He even states himself that it was "too close to the lynch deadline" to stop the bandwagon rolling. Alright, now we get to come back to that point I made earlier about the Eleantris vote on day 1. I want to point out that NT's already made clear his early suspicions of Elea, and then posts his case on a Gosse/Elea/InfernO scumteam (It's a lot of words, I won't quote it here). He then proceeds to vote for...Gossemerr. Why? I have absolutely no idea, considering he already had his suspicions of Elea on day one. I'll also note here that he was one of the first people to swap his vote to Elea, and I'd actually argue that him doing so really got the bandwagon rolling, considering we really needed a lynch Day 2 (we were already at 3 on Gosse, and then everyone followed TN to Elea). Lastly, I'd like to quote phagga: On March 16 2012 08:32 phagga wrote: Nova_Terra: No offense, but I think you are reading to much into the connection between Gossemerr, Eleanthas and inferno. That case won't hold with those arguments, I'm afraid. I really didn't want to put this into my case if I was the only one saying it, but phagga's right there with me. This whole "connection analysis" thing that NT's pushing is very weak. I don't think it's a legitimate case, and it's meant to distract us from scumhunting. I'd also like to take into account the lynch results of Day 2. Eleantris was TOWN. NT's been busy being "suspicious" of Elea since Day 1, and obviously nothing's changed since that point as far as his feelings have gone (see his day 2 case, as mentioned earlier). If you count Sbrubbles, that's two townies that have disappeared after attracting NT's attention - on this one, he even admits leading the mislynch. Interesting. | ||
Velinath
United States694 Posts
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Velinath
United States694 Posts
To at least start to dissect your post: calling someone's post scummy and him a good lynch candidate is an accusation especially coupled with an instant FoS. I never said Sev's case was credible but your defense was completely WIFOM and that's what I'm pointing out. Your weird relationship analysis half-case led us right off a cliff. As you said it was your fault. You can argue townie making mistakes but I definitely see it as scummy. | ||
Velinath
United States694 Posts
This is on the basis of my case. I have put forth basically the only significant post-based case so far, and I'm willing to put my vote down based on that. | ||
Velinath
United States694 Posts
On March 17 2012 17:19 Nova_Terra wrote: Also i fully responded to seviros case without using wifom in the next post, not sure if you saw. In your case the one thing that botherd me is that you took small portions of my posts without my backing it up, and it makes it seem way more suspicious than it actually is. same with you using quotationmarks in your analysis of my posts to state your opinion on what my posts meant, when it isnt actually what i said/ thought. This death interests me. I would have thought that mafia would have kept phagga alive so as to keep suspicion on a Nova Phagga Janaan connection. Perhaps a play to make it seem as if i wanted him dead to make myself seem inno? I hate WIFOM. gonna go through phaggas filter to see if i can find anything useful that i can pick up on. Did you even read what I said after you posted your defense? And stop WIFOMing, it doesn't get us anywhere. phagga said something good before he died - nightkills get us nothing until we lynch a scum. | ||
Velinath
United States694 Posts
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Velinath
United States694 Posts
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Velinath
United States694 Posts
On March 17 2012 23:53 Nova_Terra wrote: 1. I thought that phagga was leaning town and 2. I thought that the targets on his list were good ones to check. Also, even if it doesnt get is closer to a lynch target, it is something valid to discuss because a possible insight into mafia thinking is one thing that town can take from the mafia. if we can know how they think blues might be able to predict what they will do, etc. And then scum does the exact opposite of what you expect because you discussed what their likely next targets will be. We're at, what, 5-3 right now? We can't afford to get distracted. If you want to discuss anything go make a case. A real case, not some half-baked relationship analysis that only served to distract people and lynch a townie (thanks for that, by the way). Base it on posts. Effective scumhunting has been sadly lacking this game. | ||
Velinath
United States694 Posts
On March 18 2012 00:43 Nova_Terra wrote: @ Velinath You're welcome, and i'm glad we got some information out of it. I am slightly less suspicious than i was about Gosse, due to the Ele flip, but at this point i am really not sure who to vote. I think you missed the context of the post, specifically the part where I called your "case" yesterday bad and only serving the purpose of distracting town. Go make a real case. I still think you're probably scum. Prove me wrong by actually filtering someone and analyzing - until you do that I have no reason to begin to trust you | ||
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