Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VIII
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On March 11 2012 14:28 Gossemerr wrote: I would have to say that if we didn't lynch, we would just end up prolonging "day 1" and not have any new information to build on afterwards. That would be true if Mafia were not killing someone during the night. Currently out of 12 players we have 9 town and 3 scum so if we decide to do a random lynch, we have 75% chance of killing a townie and then on Day 2 we would be 7 town and 3 scum where in a no lynch scenario we would be 100% to lose only 1 person. Of course, it is hard to tell anything this early in the day, we will have to wait for everyone to post their thought before we make a decision but I will state right now that I am 100% against a random lynch because it is really too risky to do it this early in the game. I'm for a no lynch until proven otherwise. | ||
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On March 11 2012 20:18 Nova_Terra wrote: Please explain yourself. I dont like cosines play so far, his only post comes after someone accusing him of lurking. not only does he not bring anything new to the table, he confuses us and discredits others post (tofus) and calls it stupid. Here I don't see how he is different than you about posting just after being accusiing of lurking since your first post was just after FirmTOfu called the current people in the game that hadn't post at this time On March 11 2012 17:36 Nova_Terra wrote: Hey, Sorry, I was asleep for the last 8 hours and just woke up I agree with always pushing a lynch as long as there is aome evidence that shows that the person is likely to be scum. for instance lurkers, bad defenders, etc. i also agree with a no lynch as long as there is overwhelming evidence that shows lynch candidates as being townies. But I guess you're right since he didn't post at all since then, where you have. I just think that FOSing someone this early in the game (8 hour ago was early I mean) after only a single post is a bit suspicious but I do agree that he is not clear of suspicion with his one post, not worth a FOS yet though | ||
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On March 12 2012 04:17 Nova_Terra wrote: Isnt that exactly what i said? i just want him to start posting and defend himself. I dont/didnt consider FOS a big commitment, sorry if i confused anyone and made it seem like i was gonna vote him. i still think hes totally suspicious for all the things i just said. Yeah sorry, I just thought that FOS someoned base on a single post was a bit over reacting but I understand that you were in fact just stating that he was suspicious and as the day pass I agree more and more since he didn't post since then. Right now it's hard to make a decision though because there is many people that didn't post yet or if they did they just stated their position on the "no lynch/random lynch topics". We need more contribution to not make a mistake on our first lynch (if we decide to lynch that is) | ||
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On March 12 2012 04:38 Janaan wrote: Just got back from church, and caught up. I was honestly hoping for a little more activity. Of course, I don't like that we still have 3 total non-posters around. We're almost 18 hours into Day 1, so hopefully they all show up soon. And as for the scum slip of Cosine, I'm not sure if it was a slip or an honest newbie mistake with terms. I'll have to wait on his response before I can make a decent read on the situation. Yeah I agree, he was maybe just stating his opinion in a very bad manner. but it's been almost 12 hour since then and he didn't do anythind to defend himself nor did he post anything at all so now he is getting more and more suspicious in eyes as the time pass. | ||
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On March 12 2012 11:30 cosine wrote: please follow your line of thinking through to conclusion. if we no lynch day 1, then what? the scum are given a chance to nightkill. now what's our plan for day 2? how could it be different from day 1? statistically we'd still be likely to lynch town, so do we no lynch again day 2? when does it stop? well, it would stop when the scum won the game because we never even tried to lynch them. "you miss 100% of the shots you don't take..." Yeah but even in a no lynch scenario we can have some good information since we have an active enough town. Whatever we decide we can start to see the people that seems to stand out of the group, who bangwagon, etc. I agree though that a lynch with strong argument would be a lot better but right now I don't have enough suspicion on anyone to vote someone. As for the deadline I think that it's a good idea to make clear what we decide to do some hour before the actual deadline so that we can note who vote on vote and discuss based on that. If i'm correct we have about 22 hour left of day time so I suggest that we come out with a decision in 13 to 15 hour if we want to have a bit of time before the night. P.S. I reread my first post and I want to clarify that I stated a random lynch because I was afraid to have a not very active day 1 and I wanted to make it clear that if we were to lynch someone we had to discuss it in depth. | ||
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On March 13 2012 06:34 Nova_Terra wrote: Okay, gossemerr, read the post above. I dont feel that a lynch on firmtofu will have any non-town results. This is not trying to lynch you. I apologise for being so wishy washy and understand why people may not like this decision. Unvote: FirmTofu Vote: Gossemerr I think you would be better voting for a no lynch because voting randomly for someone like this seems a bit scummy in my opinion but i guess you just didn't notice that you could just vote no lynch I took time to read what was told after my last post and after rereading FirmTofu posts I kind of agree that it is strange since he didn't add very with those except for a list of lurker, but right now he is one of those who didn't post very much with only 2 posts. I feel he was just saying "ok i'm here so don't target me, target these one instead" it is kinda ironical that he didn't post at all after posting a list of lurker. So for now I guess ##Vote: FirmTofu P.S. Make sure that you wrote your vote in the correct format or else it will not count, I saw a couple of mistyped vote so be careful with that | ||
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On March 12 2012 19:56 koritora wrote: Well to answer your first question, the one liner is not exactly foretelling as to whether or not Eleanthas is part of the mafia or not. However, it is suspicious that he hasn't posted anything since--means to try to draw suspicion away or something. In reference to Cosine, well it's hard to read what his motives are. His words are a little contradictory in my opinion. He was all for lynching without a cause since no lynch would be bad, then a few posts later he says that people misunderstood. As for me not posting anything of value, well, my bad. Still learning the ropes of this game which is why I joined this one. Plus, It's hard to read people day 1 anyhow which is why I was for lynching the lurkers. And yes, it was a rhyme, but a truthful one. Besides the lynching of lurkers, it would not be beneficial to lynch unless some sort of evidence exists for it to occur. For someone that talk about Cosine's word being contradictory he does a good job of contradict himself. I mean he said that a no lynch would be ok if we had no lurker and nothing on anyone but in my eyes FirmTofu was lurking. Someone that post only at the start of the day and never after is what I call a lurker. Hell, he didn't even vote. It's sad tho that he was a townie since he would've probably been replaced after his no vote. I guess we'll have to wait for the mafia kill to get some more information depending on who they kill. | ||
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At first I was like why kill him, he was not really active, did not really help the town the first day and I didn't see him being a threat for anyone. Now after looking at his filter, his death give me some pointers. First, only 2 post of him contain some sort of analysis/suspicion. + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 10:45 Sbrubbles wrote: Sup guys! My first post in this game, sorry it took so late! It's hard to read someone based on the first half of the first day. On this whole Nova Terra/Cosine discussion, the only thing that stood out to me was Nova Terra's behavior, accusing and pushing on cosine (in a somewhat impatient manner), turning defensive when he's called out on it and then forgiving cosine after his post, seeming willing to go to the next topic. Being overly aggressive is not a usual day 1 mafia trait, but quickly turning defensive if called out some something is. Still, he is being active, so time will tell whether it was just a bit of town inexperience/carelessness or something more. + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 23:29 Sbrubbles wrote: You didn't accuse him? Short of actually voting for the fellow, threatening to vote for someone is as accusatory as it gets: + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 01:57 Nova_Terra wrote: Yeah, it was a funny coincedence that he posted that right before i woke up. i also pointed out the post before how the suspicion should also be on me. The thing is though, his post was extremely messed up and seemed very scummy. i definitely think it is worth an FOS seeing as nothing else was happening and i want him to clarify it up. its not like i voted for him yet or anything. On March 12 2012 01:59 Nova_Terra wrote: EBWOP: and if cosine doesnt post and we dont get any other leads i feel that he would be a good lynch candidate. Also, why so angry? Why do you insist (once again) on explaining the motives for your change of atitude? I pointed out that you were quick to turn defensive (or frustrated, as you say) when you were called out on it and it is my opinion that this is suspicious behavior, but that this doesn't matter for now because it is not worth it to push on a talkative (potential) mafia because there will be plenty of time for you to slip up later on if you really are scum. Now your answer is to threaten me, calling me suspicious? Anyway, question here: if the we agree to lynch a lurker, how are we gonna go about it? Bandwagon on the first non-replied accusation? At this point, besides Elean, we can consider a Inferno as a lurker. His post may not be contradictory like Elean (as in, he doesn't call himself worthless and suggests himself to be lynched), but he also hasn't contributed to the thread. Firmtofu looked like he was gonna participate but also hasn't said anything. In both of them, he state his suspicion on the early behaviour of Nova_Terra, maybe he was on something here. So I looked up Nova_Terra's filter and noticed so good thing. + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 14:58 Nova_Terra wrote: What is your point here? I didnt accuse him, i fos'ed him. two co pletely separate things, at least in my eyes. The pyshing on him was wanting him to respond, as was the point of my fos. I also wanted other people, like yourself, to come out of their lurking and post on this. I got frustrated when they started saying Nova_Terra is extremely eager to FoS because i was like... OH Really?!?! and then they went on to use my logic to say that he was suspicious. thats why i was mad. not exactly defensive, but frustrated at the town. Then, cosine posted exactly what i had been looking for, generating intelligent discussion. if by "willing to go onto the next topic" you mean "making new ideas that help the town and dont tunnel one person" i agree. please dont discredit my posting by calling it "inexperience/carelessness or something more" especially when this is your FIRST POST. later on i will come and explain why YOUR post seems suspicious to me. for now, im thinking eleanthas. In this one, he confront Scrubbles after he called him out on his early agressiveness, saying that it was to have some sort of conversatioin going out but also adding that he was frustrated by the town for not agreeing with him. Then he add to not "discredit his post by calling it inexperience/carelessness" where in fact Scrubbles was in fact only giving him some sort of excuse for what he posted earlier. As Scrubbles said, being defensive over such a small thing is suspicious to me. He then end his post on a semi-random call on eleanthas by saying that he is "thinking him". This way of wording it is like he want us to start pressuring eleanthas ourselves without stating it. That one-line call bugs me out a lot. He then tell why he thinks Scrubbles post was suspicous. + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 17:09 Nova_Terra wrote: I just want to point out like posts like this are scummy. Not making any “accusations” or anything. 1. Throws the blame onto others, as if I was the scummy acting one, whereas this was his first post and the point of it was to throw suspicion onto me. 2. Seemingly purposely not understanding my argument to provoke meaningless discussion 3. Discrediting posts by calling it inexperience/carelessness 4. Not wanting to actually point a finger at me or to throw enough blame that anyone would be suspicious. As you can see, these are all things that one may notice when reading a guide as to how scum should play. 1. Throws the blame onto others, as if I was the scummy acting one, whereas this was his first post and the point of it was to throw suspicion onto me. Why would Scrubbles throw the blame on him when he was not even targetted at all. I mean it's not like Scrubbles was our main target and he wanted to put the spot on another one whereas it is exactly waht Nova_Terra is doing by turning his post against him. 2. Seemingly purposely not understanding my argument to provoke meaningless discussion. He is dodging the fact that Scrubbles want more explanation about his early FOS by implying that there is nothing more to add and that Scrubbles is just wanting to bring up old discussion whereas it was legitimate of him to want some more since he was not convince of his innocence yet. 3. Discrediting posts by calling it inexperience/carelessness See point 2, that is exactly what Nova do. 4. Not wanting to actually point a finger at me or to throw enough blame that anyone would be suspicious. What he did before on Eleanthas. Also, that was not what Scrubbles was doing he just happen to have come online after the veil of suspicion was lifted on Nova and he just wanted some clarification. As you can see, these are all things that one may notice when reading a guide as to how scum should play. So well at this point pretty self-explanatory. Finally I will quote myself. + Show Spoiler + On March 13 2012 08:36 Seviro wrote: Oh god i'm late to the party today, Real life can be a whore I think you would be better voting for a no lynch because voting randomly for someone like this seems a bit scummy in my opinion but i guess you just didn't notice that you could just vote no lynch I think by voting on someone else since Tofu was most likely dead anyways, he wanted to not be associated with his death since he knew he was a townie (if he is a scum of course) and that kind of worked. + Show Spoiler + On March 13 2012 22:48 phagga wrote: So, the bandwagon on FirmTofu was rolling to easy. There was no opposition. As scum profits from mislynches, I am sure we will find at least 1 if not 2 scum on the voters of FirmTofu. Here's the final voting stand on FirmTofu again: FirmTofu (7): phagga, Eleanthas, Janaan, Gossemerr, Mementoss, Seviro, cosine, Janaan: He agrees on FirmTofu, and brings up Koritora as new suspect after the lynch with good reason. Does not look suspicious. Gossemerr: Trying to be active and helpful, lacking some content. Went a bit overboard with the "specific scenario" argument vs Nova_Tera IMO, but I think that's not an issue. Also brought up that noone is defending FirmTofu, although he again was not the first one to do so. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. Mementoss: Very active, posting analysis. Brought up Eleanthas, stated his position on several players. Does not look suspicious. Seviro: another rather active player, although content may be debatable. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. cosine: He speaks out several times vs a lurker lynch on Day1, but then jumps easily on the FirmTofu bandwagon to lynch a lurker. Besides defending himself, he did not add anything substantial. I don't like that. Eleanthas: His posting is still lacking, he actually only reiterated the wordings of others. His only longer post is this one: 1 + 2 Apologizes for not posting earlier, then calls his own first post stupid, although the post itself was not that bad. The fact that he did not post more after this short oneliner was bad. 3 Seviro, Mementoss and Sbrubbles already pointed out the exact same thing. Actually, just take a look at Mementoss phrase: Eleanthas post is the same content with different wording. 4 Was brought up in a similar form by Mementoss. 5 Was brought up by pretty much everyone active in the thread at that time. So, he actually said nothing. The comments on each of his 3 "suspects" are really short and only repeat thoughts brought up by others. For me, he is one of the more suspect persons in the game. ##FoS: Eleanthas in his post Phagga write a global analysis of everyone that vote for the lynch without touching to those who didn't. If I'm correct, that was quite a nice play from Nova. So Nova_Terra I can't wait for your answers. That said, I'm going to bed ##Big FOS:Nova_Terra | ||
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On March 15 2012 03:26 Janaan wrote: Seviro actually looks a bit scummy to me, not enough to come out with any sort of case on him, but I'm keeping close watch on him. Bits like after Day 1 ended, implying that we should simply wait until after Night 1 is over before doing anything, wasting 24 hours, doesn't look good to me. Then his accusation of Nova_Terra was full of WIFOM argument, and possibly confirmation bias. Indeed that look quite suspicious but to be fair I thought that the myslynch was not very informative since there was a lot of bandwagoning and FirmTofu had post only 2 posts so that was hard to start a conversation based on his death in my opinion, whereas the night kill was most likely to be one that give us some insight. As for the WIFOM, I didn't knoe it was a bad tihng to do (first game ever), I looked up what it meant and I agree that most of what I said was based on that, I just thought that if we try to think like a scum we could get them, I guess I was wrong. | ||
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On March 15 2012 04:54 Mementoss wrote: I still have my suspicions about you, but way less than before. Right now I think you are active and sparking discussion which is good for town regardless. There are better cases to go after. Such as "the lurkers": @Korita: + Show Spoiler + On March 13 2012 14:06 Janaan wrote: GG FirmTofu I think we need to use this night phase to get some cases rolling. We don't have much to go on as far as cases go from Day 1, so we've got our work cut out for us. One thing I noticed from the votes that I found very interesting was Koritora's No Lynch vote. Here's one of his early posts: Then he turns around and: First he says that he's suspicious of anyone who is against lynching on day 1. Then he's all of a sudden against lynching on day 1? This seems like a huge contradiction to me. Is it possible that he's trying to take away suspicion since he didn't vote for the mislynch? I'm not sure, but it's definitely possible. I think he's definitely worth a closer look. The case by Janaan was mentioned a long long time ago. Korita so far has decided to just ignore this Korita has been heavy lurking for a long time. Waiting for other discussion to bury the Korita case or for people to just plain forget? Or just an inactive townie. He seems scummy to me. @Infern0: The ultimate lurker in this game so far to me. Longest without a post currently. Drops in posts 4-5 posts that are either edits or just fluff/saying the same thing. Gives a quick explanation for his vote than peaces out for the whole night. Hard to really make a case for him other than he is the biggest lurker. If you want to lynch a lurker to keep an active town or cases are not coming together, I would say he is the number 1 lurker lynch. @Cosine: Another lurker, but he actually proved that he can come back and respond with somewhat of an opinionated post to defend himself. This is the only place he gets a + in my books. Hasn't done much for the town otherwise, and the response being half decent and logical is the only reason he's less suspicious than the other two. Basically I agree with Eleanthas view on him, kinda confused to his motives, but at least he responds... sometimes. Top scum thoughts: 1. Kori 2. Infern0 3. Cosine The case of the lurkers is a hard one, as we saw with FirmTofu we can't really tell if the are scum or town based on that but since they voted for the lynch where TOfu didn'T since he had real like issues that makes them a bit more suspicious I agree. The fact is that the town is not very active since now since we are now only 10 and 3 are lurking hard. Let say 1 or 2 scum are among the active one then they can have a big impact on the town decisions. That said, I agree that there is most likely one of these three that is a scum but I can't really tell who. While I agree with your top 3 even if cosine is a bit more active than Infern0 and Kori it doesn't make him less suspicious in my eyes. Oh and Nova to answer your question. On March 14 2012 20:32 Nova_Terra wrote: Please clarify. I do not understand what you mean. When you said 2. Seemingly purposely not understanding my argument to provoke meaningless discussion. You were in my eyes discrediting his post by implying that he didn't read the thread before your post and that he had no reason to come back on this topics. I was not actually saying that you said it was carelessness and inexperience from Scrubble, only the discrediting part. As for the rest of your defense, you answered most of the point in a not overly defensive fashion as stated above so that is some good pont for you but I want to come back on a point you missed. + Show Spoiler + Seviro wrote Then he add to not "discredit his post by calling it inexperience/carelessness" where in fact Scrubbles was in fact only giving him some sort of excuse for what he posted earlier. As Scrubbles said, being defensive over such a small thing is suspicious to me. I still don't know why you took that so seriously, why defend against something that defend you. All in all you defense was quite correct, we can go on but i'll keep you on the back of my head. I agree that we should make the lurkers participate more and taht even if you're scum, at least you are being active. | ||
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I agree with the "I'm new" kind of post, i'm one of those that think that it's not an excuse to not know, but what can I say, it was really this. And your right about Infern0, he's just like following the groove. The only post that seemingly had some sort of opinion was On March 13 2012 06:22 InfernOokami7 wrote: @Nova_Terra, for someone so opinionated about the everyone else's absence from this tread, I'm surprised you have such little to say about FirmTofu's absence, only than to say that you're not confident in with the everyone trying to lynch him. Why is that? I feel that FirmTofu's first few comments were to produce discussion from those who hadn't contributed to the game (myself included on that list). I don't find fault in that initial posting, but his absence from that point is suspicious. His post drew attention to everyone else in the thread, while he could sit back and watch everyone on that list try to make a case for themselves not to get lynched. ##Vote: FirmTofu But again, he was just reformulating what everyone said without adding anything meaningful. | ||
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On March 15 2012 06:52 phagga wrote: So we have three heavy lurker in town, which have gone for almost 2 days. While there might be other scum around, I don't really want to tolerate this behaviour. Looking through the filters of all of them, I find InfernOokami7 the most unhelpful. Also, he should have actually been in my list of people who voted for FirmTofu, but I missed that he just misformatted his vote. His filter is so empty of content that his bandwagoning makes him quite suspicious. I will therefore put my vote on him for the time being. ##Vote: InfernOokami7 I hope others will follow with voting for their suspects, so we might be able to come to an agreement on who to lynch soon. Personnaly, I don't want to vote yet, first because I don't know at all for now and second, if I vote and for some reason I can't log on to change my vote tomorrow I could end up voting for someone that got clear of suspicion in the meantime. For this reason I will wait at least tommorrow to post some kind of vote. | ||
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On March 15 2012 19:20 phagga wrote: Sorry, forgot to answer to the second part of your post: I'm a "he", just for the record. 1 Right, and you analyzed everyone in the game. Oh wait, you did not, the above paragraph is the only analysis you have done so far. So, what exactly is wrong with me analyzing "only" 6 of 10 people? 2 I never said he was town. I stated that there is 1-2 scum in the group of FirmTofu voters, which means there is also 1-2 scum in the group of non-FirmTofu voters. And I can't believe you bring this up again after Nova_Terra and I both explained this very point to Mementoss. 3 If noone is talking about the lurkers, they will be forgotten and get by with it. It has happened in other games, it can happen here. 4 And you said so much more, right? Let's see... You - call cosine suspicious with a daring argument - have disagreed that Eleanthas looks scummy (without giving a reason) - in the same post agreed that FirmTofu looks scummy, reasoning that you wanted to make the same case as Mementoss (but never presented one) - call out Janaan for having a "weird timing" - try to make up a connection between me, Janaan and Nova_Terra And you think you have contributed more than Janaan? I mean, he is lacking content too, but you are definitely the wrong one to call him out on that. You are desperately looking for arguments to connect the three of us when there is nothing to connect the three of us. I could, with the very arguments you used, claim that you and Eleanthas have a secret connection. Actually, that would even make sense, because you are both halflurking and barely contributing. What do you say about that? That actually make a lot of sense to me, I thought about it overnight. If Nova is not a scum then the kill on Scrubbles had for cause to make us suspect him and possibly lynch him right away today. Now, who've been in that aim of Nova during day 1. At first it was cosine. + Show Spoiler + On March 11 2012 20:18 Nova_Terra wrote: Did you actually just say that no lynch is sometimes better than lynch in a situation where town loses if they dont lynch mafia? By those sometimes do you mean (hypothetically) when you are mafia? Please explain yourself. I dont like cosines play so far, his only post comes after someone accusing him of lurking. not only does he not bring anything new to the table, he confuses us and discredits others post (tofus) and calls it stupid. Also i disagree with the point about see sloosh's play in newbie mini mafia IV. says nothing when it doesnt matter. once the discussion gets more substantive does he appear and work the town. ##FOS: cosine But he then retract his position after Cosine answers him + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 07:16 Nova_Terra wrote: This clarifies things substantially. Lylo: a situation where town must lynch mafia or they lose. FoS: finger of suspicion. Basically trying to get you to post to defend yourself. The point i was trying to make about sloosh's play was that that other playstyle should not be overlooked, as it was a vexing position to be in as town. Thanks for the compliment about liking my play, if you meant/included me in that statement. feels nice as i've been trying to justify my apparently hastily made Finger of Suspicion. Dont think that flattery will change anything on my end though. I'll be watching... I agree with building cases on peoples posts rather than the alternative, but i am confused as to why you didnt say just that. To me it came across as if you were trying to make his post seem invalid in the eyes of others by calling it stupid. in the games i have read through, this played a big part in how the town functioned around some certain players. unrelated side note, I have a nasty trigonometry class tomorrow, might need your help cosine xD All jokes aside, I think cosine is relatively cleared of suspicion for the most part. Next, eleanthus (or something along the lines of that): The main thing that bugged me about his post was just the "lynching lurkers maybe" thing. was wishy-washy, he presented nothing new to us and we couldnt even be sure of what his decision was. also, it slightly irked me that he totally seemed to ignore pretty much everything that had happened so far. I dont find it extremely suspicious or anything, but i want him to make a nice big post like cosine's so we can read into his thoughts so far. Lastly, Lurkers and/or lurker lynches. In this case, if we cant get anything out of eleanthus, then he is likely to be the candidate of choice for lynching. however, in the high probability chance of him doing exactly what cosine did, and having no other major scum slips come out of anyone, we will likely be put into the situation where we have to lynch one of these three to avoid a no lynch. Can i propose that we should decide which one of these three (or eleanthus) we should lynch no less than 8 hours before the deadline? this means that there wont be any last minute scrambling that results in a no lynch, and also provides enough of a time buffer that we should all be able to get votes in on that person before the deadline. This also leaves them plenty of time to come back and post before this decision. Reasonable? okay, im out for the night, see you all in a few hours. In between these two post, he agree Mementoss that the first few posts of Eleanthas were suspicious + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 06:28 Nova_Terra wrote: I was trying to make it seem to him like i was aggressive against it in hopes that he would post quickly if lurking. Also, i picked up on the Eleanthas thing as well, but didnt really want to mention that as well. i agree with your suspicion list currently. After this, the discussion go on another topic but in each of his post he states that he will most likely vote Eleanthas On March 12 2012 14:58 Nova_Terra wrote: for now, im thinking eleanthas. On March 12 2012 17:09 Nova_Terra wrote: Arguably, you are contributing on close to the same level as Koritora. The main thing is that you don’t really add anything except with disagreeing with other people. To you as well, what are your thoughts on cosine and Eleanthas in particular? It seems that you ignored most of the discussion relating to this. On March 12 2012 19:02 Nova_Terra wrote: I agree with your lynch candidates, and I think that Eleanthas should be our main target until he posts. I was also wondering about tofu, I hope he shows up and weighs in on everything. Thanks Probulous for the filters On March 12 2012 20:14 Nova_Terra wrote: Okay, thanks for the insights. Just continue to try to post often and discuss things just like what you wrote above. It would be better if you could recommend a course of action relating to your deductions regarding certain people. I.E.How we are likely to lynch Eleanthas if he doesnt post up. And then the day was going near his end so he posted his "first" official vote On March 13 2012 01:08 Nova_Terra wrote: Eleanthas has my vote currently, until he posts up, and i think that he is the best candidate as the other 'lurkers' posted and his post was widely found suspicious. ##Vote Eleanthas And after that he follow the bandwagon on FirmTOfu to finally randomly voting Gossemer. If we add that to what you said about a possible connection between Eleanthas and Gossemer, we can deduce that if they are both indeed Mafia it would make sense for them to want to kill Nova. I'm starting to think heavily that the kill on Sbrubbles was a setup against Nova so that they could indirectly inflence today's vote. okay, the last part was heavily WIFOM but I think it makes sense. I also want to point out the only post of Eleanthas on day 2. + Show Spoiler + On March 15 2012 04:13 Eleanthas wrote: So about Koritora: I have really mixed feelings about him. I don't really like, how he starts the game. ''No proof, don't lynch'' attitude makes him look really scummy. On other hand, why would any mafia say that on first post? Seems like careless townie to me. Action after that seems to nothing too special, but voting made me really curious. ''But sine either hasn't spoken up lately...'' Inferno had really posted much more. Tough his posts had been him trying to state his earlier posts. Still Inferno had come about 3 hours earlir and defended himself and told, why we should lynch FirmTofu. It seems to me, that Koritora is trying to play it save right now. I hope that he comes and speaks up for himself. His actions look bit scummy, but really atleast I want to hear more about him, before starting really to point my finger towards him. And Cosine: He seems really confusing. I get mixed feeling about his past with mafia. Seems like he isn't new with mafia but just really odd how he still messes up with terms etc. Or are the terms really Team Liquid spesific? I don't really have other problems with Cosine. I think his justificatios for lynch were fine and he has been responding to suspects and discussed fine. Now he seems to have dropped out from the discussion. Hope he shows up soon. Now I'm trying to look over discussion going on now and post about it hopefully soon. Once again from him, another longish post that add nothing. He just talk about the three lurker as if they where the only suspect at the moment. He completely ignore what is going on stating Now I'm trying to look over discussion going on now and post about it hopefully soon As of now, 10 hours later, he didn't post yet. So now, if what phagga said is true, which is quite possible, I think a lynch on Eleanthas would be beneficial for us. I know that it is not 100% sure that he is a scum but I think his lynch will give us the informations that we need to go on. That said, in my opinion he has the behaviour of a scum so either he is a scum or a bad townie both of which are bad for the town. ##Vote: Eleanthas | ||
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On March 16 2012 04:59 Nova_Terra wrote: @ Velinath I put my vote onto Gossemerr because i find that in his posts, he is the most dangerous player out of the three. I find that his posting has some qualities that make his arguments seem plausible and valid, and shares his ideas/information (when he has any) in the most comprehensive manner out of the three, which is why i find him more dangerous. While I agree on that, I feel like if he flips town we would lose a big contibutor of the town whereas if we lynch Eleanthas there is 2 possibilities: 1. he flips Town and we lose a semi-lurker that didn't help the town at all since the start of the game 2. He turns out to be indeed scum which then we can safely say that Gossemer is most likely a scum as well. I feel like Eleanthas is the safest lynch for today, hence my vote. As for the third possible scum, I don't have a clue yet but if these two are indeed scum that would make it much more easier to find him based on their post. | ||
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On March 16 2012 05:57 Velinath wrote: Seviro, what is your feeling about my separate reasoning for voting Gossemerr? In addition, do you consider this Elea/Gosse/InfernOokami case to have merit given that it analyzes based on a specific scumteam? About Gossemerr voting for someone that he thought could be town, It was day one, and there was no strong case about anyone, we were discussing about lynching lurkers and FIrmTofu was one of the biggest at that time (in fact he was not lurking only was not able to participate due to real life but we didn't know that at this time). I mean Of course he thought that there was a posibility for Tofu to be a town but Gosse didn't want to risk a no-lynch on day one. On March 11 2012 14:28 Gossemerr wrote: I would have to say that if we didn't lynch, we would just end up prolonging "day 1" and not have any new information to build on afterwards. On March 11 2012 14:38 Gossemerr wrote: Well like you said, if the there is a good amount of evidence that those being voted on are townies; then of course a no lynch would be best. I'm guessing that we will not be certain either way. There was no evidence that Tofu was indeed a town so I don't think Gosse voting for him even he could have been a town is that suspicious. For your second point, the case of nova on Eleanthas/Gossemerr/InfernOokami connection I don't think it is the good approach yet. Of course if Elean or Gosse turns out to be scum that will be a good idea to find what connection they had with other people but for now we are sure of nothing. As Mementoss stated, we could see a connection between Phagga and Nova as well + Show Spoiler + On March 14 2012 21:52 Mementoss wrote: Also I noticed something else that was a bit weird. Maybe just a coincidence. The connection between Phagga and Nova_Terra 1. Only 2 people to have suspicion on Sbrubbles. Phagga and Nova_Terra. I've already shown Nova's so here is Phaggas post. + Show Spoiler + On March 12 2012 18:33 phagga wrote: Where is FirmTofu? He posted a lurker list 5 hours into the game (which is VERY early for a lurkerlist) and has not posted since then. If we would hold him up to his own standard, he is lurking very hard. You can see his filter here I read through all the filters, and besides FirmTofu the following people are rather suspicious to me: - Eleanthas (Only posted a one liner) - koritora (not posting anything of value) - sbrubbles (only two posts in rapid succession where he basically calls out lurkers and fluff, only to disappear again). IMO, if there is a DT out there, these four would be possible check targets. What do you guys think about it? Also, if none of them adds anyhting significant in the next 6 hours, my vote will go to one of these four. Soft deadline 8 hours before is ok with me. Also, as a heads up, I generally won't be around on deadline, as it is at 3 am in my timezone. By final vote will normally be casted around 5 to 3 hours before deadline. --> Also maybe trying to push a waste of DT check onto Sbrubbles? 2. Another agreeance on the DT check, again maybe trying to lure out a Blue or waste a check? + Show Spoiler + On March 14 2012 02:30 Nova_Terra wrote: I am in agreement with those three being good suspects for a dt to check. I want them (as well as everyone else) to come and post more. The trend seems to be posting some excuse for not posting and then not posting again. I have a couple other minor suspicions right now, but nothing worth noting, until i have a bit more to work with. 3. First to defend Nova_Terra + Show Spoiler + On March 14 2012 18:47 phagga wrote: Seviro, while I like your analysis on a first glance, I would like to note that you start your case with some heavy WIFOM. We have no idea what the motives of the mafia are for killing sbrubbles. We can only speculate. And if we speculate wrong, we might start hunting and lynching people for the wrong reasons, we will get WIFOM, it will create more uncertainty than facts. The only ones profiting from it will be the mafia. There is no benefit in guessing what the mafia is up to. Also, it does not matter. Whatever the mafia wanted to achieve, we just need to make sure that we can lynch them, then we win. However, I think your case is not only base on WIFOM, so I will go through it later when I have more time. --> Doesn't really go into the case, just dis regards it because it has some WIFOM. When really, there was a lot of WIFOM but there were some other good points too, that he didn't post his opinion on. Adds some fluff about trying to guess what the mafia is up to is useless. Well usually finding what the mafia are up to leads to them, and it all starts making sense. Or you find a mafia, then you find what they were up to and make a connection that way. So yes eventually mafia motives are relevant. 4. Leaves Nova_terra out of his analysis because of the vote switch. + Show Spoiler + On March 13 2012 22:48 phagga wrote: So, the bandwagon on FirmTofu was rolling to easy. There was no opposition. As scum profits from mislynches, I am sure we will find at least 1 if not 2 scum on the voters of FirmTofu. Here's the final voting stand on FirmTofu again: FirmTofu (7): phagga, Eleanthas, Janaan, Gossemerr, Mementoss, Seviro, cosine, Janaan: He agrees on FirmTofu, and brings up Koritora as new suspect after the lynch with good reason. Does not look suspicious. Gossemerr: Trying to be active and helpful, lacking some content. Went a bit overboard with the "specific scenario" argument vs Nova_Tera IMO, but I think that's not an issue. Also brought up that noone is defending FirmTofu, although he again was not the first one to do so. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. Mementoss: Very active, posting analysis. Brought up Eleanthas, stated his position on several players. Does not look suspicious. Seviro: another rather active player, although content may be debatable. I hope to get some analysis from him soon, currently a null read. cosine: He speaks out several times vs a lurker lynch on Day1, but then jumps easily on the FirmTofu bandwagon to lynch a lurker. Besides defending himself, he did not add anything substantial. I don't like that. Eleanthas: His posting is still lacking, he actually only reiterated the wordings of others. His only longer post is this one: 1 + 2 Apologizes for not posting earlier, then calls his own first post stupid, although the post itself was not that bad. The fact that he did not post more after this short oneliner was bad. 3 Seviro, Mementoss and Sbrubbles already pointed out the exact same thing. Actually, just take a look at Mementoss phrase: Eleanthas post is the same content with different wording. 4 Was brought up in a similar form by Mementoss. 5 Was brought up by pretty much everyone active in the thread at that time. So, he actually said nothing. The comments on each of his 3 "suspects" are really short and only repeat thoughts brought up by others. For me, he is one of the more suspect persons in the game. ##FoS: Eleanthas Even though the vote switch does not prove innocence or town so this seems a bit odd. Unless it was pre-planned. FirmTofu already had the majority, so Nova_Terra could switch. Phagga could then post an analysis post, to look town, while leaving out any analysis of his scum buddy Nova_Terra, without looking suspicious because of the vote switch. These are just some things I noticed and my thoughts for now. But as of now, I'm leaning towards ##FOS: Nova Terran Even if there is some sort of connection between 2 people, that doesn't mean that they are both scum. It can be : 1. 2 Town agreeing with each others and liking each other way of thinking 2. 1 scum agreeing with a townie that is on the bad track 3. 2 Scum defending each others. All in all, I don'T think that we are at a point where connection are all that important, sure it can help for future analysis but we shouldn't let our vote be influenced only by it. | ||
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On March 13 2012 14:06 Janaan wrote: GG FirmTofu I think we need to use this night phase to get some cases rolling. We don't have much to go on as far as cases go from Day 1, so we've got our work cut out for us. One thing I noticed from the votes that I found very interesting was Koritora's No Lynch vote. Here's one of his early posts: Then he turns around and: First he says that he's suspicious of anyone who is against lynching on day 1. Then he's all of a sudden against lynching on day 1? This seems like a huge contradiction to me. Is it possible that he's trying to take away suspicion since he didn't vote for the mislynch? I'm not sure, but it's definitely possible. I think he's definitely worth a closer look. Then, in his vote post he seem to agree with my case on you and found it strange that Jaanan protect you like this. While these accusation are debatable, I don't think that he had no reason to vote on Janaan whereas Eleanthas is much more a semi-lurker as he never really stated his own opinion about anything. | ||
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On March 16 2012 06:13 Nova_Terra wrote: @ seviro, i think the same reasoning applies to Gosse. Take a look at his filter; he really isnt a big contributor. at all. he barely has more posts than ele, and spreads doubt regarding members of the town better. in those 2 cases: 1. he flips town and we lose a semi lurker whos best case is just a few lines suspecting janaan without much reason to back it up 2. he turns out to be a scum which means we can assume that ele is scum as well, which likely makes inferno a scum. I agree with either of the two as a lynch target, but there is something to be said for eliminating the more dangerous player first. I will be on for another ~30 minutes where i can answer questions or change my vote (between those 2). Sorry for any typos, typing on an ipad. 1. he flips town and we lose a semi lurker whos best case is just a few lines suspecting janaan without much reason to back it up Well to be fair I think he had somthing to back it up. First, he point out that Janaan bring up his suspicion on Koritora after the lynch has been done. Had he post that before the end of the day that could have saved FirmTofu. Also the fact that Janaan wrote his post suspecting Koritora right after the night post as if he wanted to lead the discussion. + Show Spoiler + On March 13 2012 14:06 Janaan wrote: GG FirmTofu I think we need to use this night phase to get some cases rolling. We don't have much to go on as far as cases go from Day 1, so we've got our work cut out for us. One thing I noticed from the votes that I found very interesting was Koritora's No Lynch vote. Here's one of his early posts: Then he turns around and: First he says that he's suspicious of anyone who is against lynching on day 1. Then he's all of a sudden against lynching on day 1? This seems like a huge contradiction to me. Is it possible that he's trying to take away suspicion since he didn't vote for the mislynch? I'm not sure, but it's definitely possible. I think he's definitely worth a closer look. Then, in his vote post he seem to agree with my case on you and found it strange that Jaanan protect you like this. While these accusation are debatable, I don't think that he had no reason to vote on Janaan whereas Eleanthas is much more a semi-lurker as he never really stated his own opinion about anything. | ||
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