EPTNothing really major I can contribute, have to dig through the whole thread and read up. Will post later.
Newbie Mini Mafia V
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
Nothing really major I can contribute, have to dig through the whole thread and read up. Will post later. | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
On March 02 2012 10:37 Mementoss wrote: Based on my little list above, I would like to purpose a Plan to the Town. Since voting is in the next 24 hours, I would like every one to post their top 2 scum reads within the next 12 hours. I want to know why they are your scum reads, quoting someone elses opinion is not acceptable. Must be backed up by some evidence, filter quotes, pyscological reasons why they would say that if they were scum, why their behaviour is scummy etc. Many people have said will post later scum opinions and never have. On March 04 2012 07:44 DimmuKlok wrote: My idea on fixing this problem is to force everyone post who they believe to be scum. All it needs to be is one person, and you don't have to put any effort into it if you don't want to. There's nothing against actually trying though. The reason this idea works is because it's so easy. Mafia can easily participate in any way they feel fit, but they are forced to participate. It also brings back discussion with updated information. Comply or be lynched. The only way I see this being exploited is if someone makes a simple post on someone and then lurks until it's lynching time. This behavior should be pretty easy to spot and pointed out by one of us, so I'm not too worried. On March 04 2012 08:08 Mementoss wrote: This post pretty much confirms town on DimmuKlok's part. All his posts have good content in it, and the game was at a current state where lurking was the majority and mafia could sit back and laugh to victory as for almost 6 hours since the lynch nothing significant has been posted. Not that many people have been claiming DimmuKlok as mafia, but I want to go back and check who actually did call DimmuKlok mafia. So DimmuKlok's proposal would have us naming scumlists, when nothing has happened and no one is going to have solid reads yet especially with all the new replacements, myself included. As shown in my quotes, this proposal is essentially one Mementoss proposed 2 days earlier. Mementoss then proceeds to support DimmuKlok as "confirmed town" with the game still at status quo. Can you elaborate on this? Throwing around confirm posts with no one being lynched or dead seems a little premature. For now, based on our last vote counts, we can still vote OtoshimonoU off since he hasn't been modkilled or replaced and hasn't defended himself against the claims presented towards him. Refute any of my points if inconsistent, I'm still new and may be missing logic somewhere. ##Vote OtoshimonoU | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
##Vote: OtoshimonoU | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
We have 3 people just jumping in, and it puts a lot of pressure on us if we're new to post something constructive or remain a lurker. If we are to continue playing as is, isn't it better to get rid of a bad town rather than risk a no-lynch again? | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
On March 04 2012 22:36 blubbdavid wrote: Analysis by blubbdavid In this first Analysis, I want to cover the two most suspected subjects Sufficiency and OtoshimonoU. 2. OtoshimonoU He looks like a bandwagoner: On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote: I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already. He opposes a Lynch. Which isn’t unsensible, but like we all know, for some reason lynching is better because we can get information. On March 01 2012 12:37 OtoshimonoU wrote: Or maybe I confused his words with the mafia guide... Anyway, if everyone is willing to random lynch I will too, Clear bandwagoning. He would cast aside his own views if the majority has other views than him. Otoshi catches the attention of some. So he tries to defend himself with this bigworded post: On March 02 2012 11:04 OtoshimonoU wrote: Just a small opinion, Mr.Maverick and Mementoss are controlling the game and thoughts of the game in the Town's perspective. It's possible that they are using an aggressive method of mafia using long persuasive paragraphs. I read Maverick's post and feel he has absolute trust and certainty in Mementoss's accusations and posts. Maybe they just have a connection and my theory is wrong. It's true that they do have a connection and it does to me, seem very strong even if they might be just fellow towns that understand each other's logic. I don't feel the suspicion from neither lurkers nor the accused, they are just new and will not be able to write long constructive ideas without a single clue of evidence nor understanding the underlying message of people's posts. So what I see Mementoss has been giving pressure and Maverick is the back up. As scums they have nothing to gain by saying nothing and not gaining the control of the situation whenever. Those two have most likely the highest amount of posts that will swerve opinions over people. Also Maverick, you need to write something about your own behaviors in your own organization sheet or you just seem to avoid any fault in your own posts. On the first glance his theory of mafia being bigmouthed may have a point. He is suspecting Maverick, who has indeed contributed much to this thread now. But if Maverick was scum, would he really make a big post about probabilities only to influence innocent townies? Would mafia make such a big effort? Furthermore, the other guy he has been suspecting, mementoss, has flipped town. So Otoshi’s theory of two scums covering eachother has lost its base and its meaning. Also Maverick, you need to write something about your own behaviors in your own organization sheet or you just seem to avoid any fault in your own posts. Why would Maverick need to do that? It’s obvious that he’s assuming that he’s town himself, so no need for some words. Imo, his post was a ditch attempt to evade getting lynched, by blaming others and not explaining his behavior. Although he was on the verge of getting lynched, he didn’t try to explain his behavior. On March 03 2012 12:45 OtoshimonoU wrote: Hi Sbrubbles! For Mr. Trackd00r, I must say that I cannot answer your accusations because I cannot understand what exactly your question is and it's been getting on my nerves and I will refuse to quote them. I won't think negatively of anyone that wants to bandwagon and not think for themselves. So basing on the posts I have made I could either be an extremely dumb mafia someone who would be so transparent to give out such easy suspicion or a random townie that was trying to get a feel of the game and gets bombarded with accusation and receive more accusations for defending myself. I will stand on my suspicion over mementoss and maverick, but also state that DimmuKlok is giving me an iffy feeling. "I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today" "##FoS: Rainmaker5" "I'm somewhat lost when it comes to Sufficiency" "##Vote: OtoshimonoU" Maybe he's just a townie that doesn't understand what he wants to do or just wants to follow the leader or someone that wants someone lynched. I can't get a clear view of him, all I see from him is throwing out random thoughts. I don't understand Tiystus either. Hopefully someone can find what we're looking for. And Sufficiency, you're just confused and lost your head. None of your posts making sense, but I don't find you scummy.(jk) Now look at this post, it’s a real goldmine. I won't think negatively of anyone that wants to bandwagon and not think for themselves. Dude, you have been one of the biggest bandwaggoner so far. -.-‘ townie that was trying to get a feel of the game and gets bombarded with accusation and receive more accusations for defending myself. You never tried to defend yourself. The rest of his post consists of accusing two further posters. The difference between Sufficiency and him is that Suff didn’t try to blend in at all. It was his luck that some people didn’t vote and so therefore his demise was postponed. For now I will cast my vote on him, because he is my scum read number one. If you are able to explain something, then maybe I will overthink it, but till then, OtoshimonoU, I will have my watchful eyes on you. After reading the latest responses, I'm now a bit baffled. The majority opinion is that either Sufficiency or OtoshimonoU are scum, and that those are our two choices for a lynch. So here are my thoughts on them. My opinion on OtoshimonoU: The active players were already pushing for OtoshimonoU's lynch prior to the replacements, with mementoss being targetted and flipping green, it doesn't make sense to me that Mafia would accept OtoshimonoU getting lynched in response unless he didn't want to play anymore, I would like to hear from him to see if he is actually still going to be active before I throw my vote. It feels like a mislynch to me because OtoshimonoU hasn't given much in the way for defense, it seems more apathetic than really bad scum play. As quoted, blubbdavid's post suggests that he is more of a bandwagoner than anything truly malicious, and everyone that is bandwagoning in response on him seems like it is being directed by one of the active mafia posters posing as town. Now I am new to Mafia, but if everyone is already against you, how can you defend yourself without incurring claims of OMGUS? My opinion on Sufficiency: Looking through his filter, he also seems pretty apathetic. Mostly one line responses, nothing substantial, hasn't posted on his reads at all either. He originally targets OtoshimonoU and then later switches to beorn1 a lurker who has since been replaced. Both of these are easy decisions to make to seem town, but he hasn't commented on anyone else. Still highly suspicious behavior, and I'd be more willing to lynch Sufficiency first than to stay on the majority opinion of OtoshimonoU. If we have 48 hours for this day cycle, we need to give time for the accused to start responding, especially to the new replacements, so we can get better/updated reads. We have to lynch someone to try and gain more information, and having two easy suspects is fine for that, but I'd be leery that this is what mafia wants, us to mis-lynch while being directed by someone who is masquerading as one of the most active town posters. Final opinion: Give time for the accused to respond, but otherwise, I'm voting Sufficiency. | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
We definitely have to get a successful lynch off on someone today otherwise mafia gets another free kill and we're still clueless. My top suspect so far is still Sufficiency, he still hasn't contributed anything meaningful and hasn't responded to any of the new accusations brought upon him. The other suspects proposed are OtoshimonoU and Rainmaker because he hasn't been active. I'm inclined to just leave OtoshimonoU alone for another day and vote someone else like Sufficiency or Rainmaker, but you guys are seriously pushing for OtoshimonoU... I am 90% confident that if we do decide to lynch OtoshimonoU he will flip green making the situation completely muddled. Better to get rid of someone who is barely active than a ridiculously easy target. If mafia were really pushing for his lynch than as stated, why has the vote been so hard to pull off? 3 Mafia + bandwagoning townies would have made it easy, the most likely reasoning is that we had too many lurkers fail to vote. That doesn't mean the Mafia are targetting him, that means that they are most likely content to just let us go after a mis-lynch on our own without trying to influence us too much. That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it. | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
I guess I'll just switch my vote to OtoshimonoU now to make sure it goes through, but I still think it's a mistake. | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
On March 06 2012 08:36 Maverick32x wrote: I know I say 'significantly' like its a huge amount of people, but I really think that it clears both sufficiency (who I'm HIGHLY suspicious of, and burbbles) Which is a larger step than we've taken so far... and I'm sure if we look at the filters we may be able to pull some conclusions as well... one of the things that would confuse me if he flipped town.. why killl Mementoss? Either way, we'll have some answers in a couple hours... See this is what bugs me. It really doesn't clear anyone. Sufficiency is currently voting for a no lynch and Sbrubbles is voting Rainmaker. How is OtoshimonoU flipping green going to clear them when if they were Mafia, they would know if OtoshimonoU is town and if we have enough votes without Mafia pitching in to get rid of him. We have multiple people who were already dead set on OtoshimonoU, and then we have a couple others (myself included) who are willing to switch our votes to make sure a lynch 100% goes through. Now we have at least 3 people who are not voting OtoshimonoU. If we didn't have the swing votes, the lynch wouldn't go through AGAIN. This is clearly what the Mafia wants, us to be indecisive and confused while we keep losing key members during the night. If we mis-lynch we mis-lynch, but don't overstate how much information we're going to get. I already stated my opinion on Mementoss being targetted earlier as well, I think it was more he was the most active poster than for anyone in particular he had suspicions on. | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On March 07 2012 03:03 DimmuKlok wrote: Why I called out Willz: Willz was the first person to vote for Oto. In this post he states clearly that he's completely ok with the current case on Oto and willing to lynch him. He even throws in a scapegoat for funzies(He's new). He then states here, as confusingly as possible, that he thinks lynching Oto would be a mislynch. Later in the post saying he's more ok with a Sufficiency lynch than Oto, because of Blubbdavids post. Here at the beginning, I point out that I have not played a single game of Mafia, and even worse I am a replacement coming in after a really poor Day1. I had no direct interaction with anyone, I was under the burden of making a case based on what was already written, and based on that I agreed with the OtoshimonoU case and supported it. + Show Spoiler + On March 05 2012 04:23 willz22912 wrote: Just saw that OtoshimonoU just voted for himself, I think he's just giving up at this point because it's too hard to defend yourself if everyone already is on you. If he is that uninterested in the game, lynching him now seems really pointless and won't give any information. He's now sure that Oto is town and lynching him will give no information. I bolded it for importance. If Oto was mafia, obviously him getting lynched would give us plenty of information. All of these point of views are not incriminating yet, but important to keep in mind when you read this: This is where he begins to try to prove his innocence, while still getting rid of Oto. When you read this post, it's made very clear to you that he thinks Oto is green. I'd go even further to say that he knows that he's green. But alas, "That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it." Yea, lets get that information out of him that you said there wasn't any of... Here is after OtoshimonoU finally responded (by voting for himself) after not even trying to defend himself with any critique on the analysis done against him. This changed my opinion on him to being a townie with everyone against him rather than a true Mafia. That opinion was stated, but I also acknowledge that it is suspicious of me to flip-flop by agreeing in the beginning, changing my vote to Sufficiency, and then changing back to OtoshimonoU to make sure the vote goes through. I should have been more steadfast in my opinion and continued to vote against OtoshimonoU once I made my position/thoughts clear. I now know better for the future. + Show Spoiler + On March 06 2012 08:15 willz22912 wrote: Adding on/clarifying for my last sentence. If it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU again, then yeah we may as well see what his flipping will give us for information. I guess I'll just switch my vote to OtoshimonoU now to make sure it goes through, but I still think it's a mistake. This post was made immediately after. He has the inherent feeling that he needs to defend his choice without anyone accusing him. Remember, it's for the information. As stated above, I posted that I believed with a 90% certainty that OtoshimonoU was town based on his reactions to the accusations and keeping in mind everyone is a general newbie. I was trying to empathize with his situation and see that I would probably have done the exact same thing in his case, because the momentum was completely against me and it was already too late to convince any of the replacements of my innocence. That being said, my posts were as a response to Maverick, arguing with him over OtoshimonoU's case, and debating the amount of information to be gained. My opinion was that it was too late to try and save OtoshimonoU, even though I personally believed in his innocence. In that case, a mis-lynch would at least show that he was town, and cast suspicion on those who initially voted for him. However, I could not say with 100% certainty that he was town, so there was also a case of OtoshimonoU actually being truly Mafia, which would have justified everything and made my read incorrect. Either way, a lynch was needed to gain the information we have, whereas if I did not vote for OtoshimonoU I'm not sure the vote would have gone through, leading to no new information gained again. In the event that if I did not vote for OtoshimonoU and caused a no-lynch, leaving OtoshimonoU alive is also not a very good response, seeing as how he had 0 credibility and was still going to be the most suspicious suspect for a lot of people and seemed unenthusiastic about continuing to play in his situation. + Show Spoiler + On March 06 2012 09:22 willz22912 wrote: This post is the most telling. He tells everyone what he knew all along. Oto flipping green will not give information. He also knows that Oto is going to flip green, and that explains all the effort he put in to make sure that he would not be a suspect after his death. His last 3 posts were shortly before the lynch, and all pushed the same message. Oto being lynched was the perfect way for Willz to look innocent and to stay out of the light. It was too suspicious not to bring up. After thinking about it, a DT check on Willz wouldn't be too bad of an idea either. This part, I don't really understand either. I was again disagreeing with Maverick about his opinion: "I know I say 'significantly' like its a huge amount of people, but I really think that it clears both sufficiency (who I'm HIGHLY suspicious of, and burbbles) I was stating that in the event of OtoshimonoU flipping green (which was the case), it doesn't clear anyone of suspicion because the lynch took 2 days to accomplish and required new votes from the replacements who could or could not be Mafia. Everyone is still under scrutiny for voting for OtoshimonoU in my opinion because it was such an easy case to make to gain credibility as looking "town." In the emphasis you made about me knowing information, I felt based on my read that OtoshimonoU was green, and was continually harping on that in my discussion with Maverick. Personally, I can see the case you're trying to make against me, but it really seems like you're taking my conversation/responses to Maverick out of context more than I was trying to look innocent. In fact, I was going to continue with Mementoss' thought that you were town, but now you have given me pause to reconsider my opinion of you. I will follow up on this with my own counter-analysis, but it involves part of what Sbrubbles already posted. | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
I was continuing with the read made by the late Mementoss that DimmuKlok was town. However with his attack on me, while justified in a certain degree with my behavior, I find that he has overextended himself and shown his true colors to be scum. Now let's go over his post history. I'm not going to quote the filler posts here, so don't accuse me of picking and choosing, this post is already going to be super long without me adding everything DimmuKlok ever said added on to it. + Show Spoiler + On March 02 2012 07:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Because some of you are starting to look at Mementoss, I'm going to post my opinion on him quickly and post my scum reads a bit later. Mementoss's posts thus far seem pro town to me. He's been either giving his opinion on the topic at hand, pointing out inactives, and posting his scum reads. Look at this quote for example. + Show Spoiler + On March 02 2012 05:46 Mementoss wrote: No, random lynch is not good at all. Better to go on some hunch. We already have a few little hunches that I would rather go on then just nothing at all. We also have someone who is inactive thus far. Those are 2 better options then random lynch. Also, looking at Pablols filter, Stance: Random Lynch, lynch someone who opposes the lynch. --> Labels first post of the game as suspicious. 1 liner, no real logic to why its suspicious. Filler really. --> Sentences like this " Looking at the numbers it seems as if we should play passive until we get more information since there is a high chance of lynching a townie, however, don't forget that we must take risks." that say nothing, and generally contradict themselves. -->"In my opinion, it is probably better to pick someone at random. " - Again contradicting to passive play, also lacks care of his stated high chance of getting a townie. -->Also he is trying to derail discussion of the actual person we should look to be lynching, by trying to bring up an old discussion that has already been over with. The idea of random lynching. The general consensus of those without scummy tendencies have been to try and figure out a good candidate to lynch or lynch no one at all. He is really trying to push a lynch no matter what, risky play. As the townie mafia numbers get closer, the mafia advantage rises significantly. Two bad lynches could be game. Logic should be our weapon, not rolling the dice. All in all lynching someone with no basis is an absolutely terrible option in this situation. Some circumstances in the game where you cannot risk the scum even getting 1 up, and you have no leads is a good situation to pick someone at random. This is not the case. We currently hold our people advantage and there is no desperation at this point in the game. That being said I think we have some decent information to come up with the best lynchable candidate and we should try to keep discussing to get as much information out there as we can based on peoples post behavior. Here are my top picks for scum right now: OtoshimonoU Pablols Sufficiency (although trackd00r brings up a point about his sloppy posts) Not counting Beorn cause I think it might be cause hes a noob and just forgot about the game starting to be honest. But he is in my mind too. Even if all his scum picks were wrong, it's still pro town to put it out there. It forces responses from the accused, which brings more information to the table. He first establishes his credibility in the beginning by defending Mementoss, who was one of the most active posters in the thread and who was killed off Night1. If he was Mafia, he would look town by defending Mementoss, but now there's a reason that Mementoss was targetted first. By killing Mementoss off early right after he posts supporting DimmuKlok and "confirming town" he removes suspicion from himself, and can use his previous support of Mementoss to defend himself. Pretty scummy behavior here, I hope everyone else agrees. + Show Spoiler + On March 02 2012 17:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Sufficiency, while you're here could you explain to me in more detail why you chose OtoshimonoU and gunman103? On March 02 2012 20:36 DimmuKlok wrote: Fair enough... I was hoping it was something a little more elaborate, but ok.  On March 03 2012 03:24 DimmuKlok wrote: I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today. This is pretty amusing to me and pretty blatant suspicious behavior. You question Sufficiency, he gives a very vague response "gutty feelings", and you don't follow up on that, but then you agree with Sufficiency on lynching Beorn without question? This is even more damning when reading the following post: + Show Spoiler + On March 03 2012 06:50 DimmuKlok wrote: Defending Mementoss was simply me trying to get the conversation in a more productive direction and off someone I thought was innocent at the time. Bandwagoning with Sufficiency actually had nothing to do with Sufficiency at all. When Sufficiency posted that he wanted to lynch Beorn, I quickly agreed and threw my vote on him. This was done in order to pressure Beorn out of hiding. In the post I hint at exactly what I want him to do, and that's to "contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate". I suspected him as scum so his response was going to give me a lot of information. I even make another post to put the pressure back on Beorn and get some information out of him here: My vote was not initially intended for Beorn, nor did I intend to keep it on him, because I didn't think he would get enough votes before the deadline. I'm changing my vote to Oto, who I originally intended on voting for. I want to state however that we cannot let this continue after today. We will always be more conformable with lynching someone who we have a read on, but we need a way to get lurkers to post. Consider this scenario... mafia without any consequences of not contributing can just chill day after day while everyone kills each other. On Day 2 I think we should seriously consider lynching lurkers, or start conversation on how to get them to post more. So now we see that DimmuKlok was agreeing with Sufficiency only to "draw Beorn out of hiding" but really he wanted to vote for OtoshimonoU the whole time, because he knew that Beorn wouldn't get enough votes and he wanted to make sure OtoshimonoU got lynched? Remember this behavior when I bring up how OtoshimonoU finally got lynched. Beorn ended up being a lurker and was replaced, targetting him was an easy move for any Mafia trying to blend in and pointing out obvious targets. The interaction between Sufficiency and DimmuKlok is pretty telling, DimmuKlok wasn't trying to bandwagon and support his fellow Mafia at all! + Show Spoiler + On March 03 2012 07:18 DimmuKlok wrote: I'm somewhat lost when it comes to Sufficiency. I can't tell if he's smart and trying to get reactions out of people with his posts, or one of the many other things I've considered. If people are interested I can make a more detailed case on my opinion of him, but even I'm not too confident in my read on him. Pretty cute/telling here as well. He realizes that his interaction with Sufficiency has been pretty non-existant so he posts this to make sure there are no assumptions on them working together. He offers to post a more detailed case on him (which no one asks for) so he gets away scot free. + Show Spoiler + On March 04 2012 09:57 DimmuKlok wrote: My idea and Mementoss's idea are actually very different. His idea was to force everyone into coming up with 2 very detailed cases on 2 different people. There were lots of problems with this plan. One of which he states right after he tells everyone the plan: All town need to participate and the cases need to be damn good or they will get accused. This meant that the mafia simply didn't have to participate and all it took was one town player to not put in the effort. If you were going to participate you needed to put in a lot of effort, therefor not many people contributed and the idea died. Not surprising considering 4 people didn't even put in the effort to vote, and at least one was town. This idea has none of those problems. You can choose to benefit the town by making a more detailed post on your scum read, but you don't have to. What you do have to do is post. Don't, and we'll simply lynch you. I'm not going to lie, the major problem with this plan is that we can't lynch someone that we have a case on unless we are nearly 100% sure he is mafia. Simply because we need to have consequences for not participating, and that's getting lynched. Even that one problem is minor, though. A townie will not want to be lynched, therefor he will at least post. That will continue to narrow down the list of lurkers until you would have to be stupid not to accuse someone in order to not get lynched. If everyone is smart, everyone will post, and we can get new information out there and everyone participating. In the chance that we have 1-3 lurkers when it comes time to vote, we'll have to pick which we feel is the best to lynch. I don't see that happening though with how easy it is to keep yourself from getting lynched(Post a scum read). When and if there are no lurkers, we can go back to voting for who you want to lynch. So this was posted after Day1 and the unsuccessful lynch of OtoshimonoU. He tries to keep pretending his pro-town stance here by proposing this "everyone posts 1 scum read." It is important to see this in context as well from what we know now. Mementoss had the original idea and I called him out on this and he defended himself by saying "well it's not really the same." Sure what you wanted us to do compared to Mementoss was in the details different, but again, the general idea was posting scum reads, which was originally proposed by Mementoss. You are staying in his shadow to keep looking town. + Show Spoiler + On March 05 2012 08:27 DimmuKlok wrote: GG Mementoss, it's been fun. OtoshimonoU, what is your read on Sufficiency? Also, who is your top scum read right now and why? On March 06 2012 04:08 DimmuKlok wrote: Oto is either a useless towny or mafia, I'm voting for him. I tried to get more information out of him before we lynch him, but he apparently has 0 reads... So here day 2 rolls around, Mementoss gets killed off so DimmuKlok needs to make sure the suspicion is still on OtoshimonoU. He calls him out, OtoshimonoU obviously did not respond very well, therefore there was no need for DimmuKlok to post anything except that "he is either a useless towny or mafia" as his justification. And that he "tried to get more information! But alas, OtoshimonoU was not sufficient in his defense and therefore it's still an ok lynch. Keep this in mind as well for later for when he calls me out and votes OtoshimonoU. + Show Spoiler + On March 07 2012 03:03 DimmuKlok wrote: Why I called out Willz: Willz was the first person to vote for Oto. In this post he states clearly that he's completely ok with the current case on Oto and willing to lynch him. He even throws in a scapegoat for funzies(He's new). He then states here, as confusingly as possible, that he thinks lynching Oto would be a mislynch. Later in the post saying he's more ok with a Sufficiency lynch than Oto, because of Blubbdavids post. He's now sure that Oto is town and lynching him will give no information. I bolded it for importance. If Oto was mafia, obviously him getting lynched would give us plenty of information. All of these point of views are not incriminating yet, but important to keep in mind when you read this: This is where he begins to try to prove his innocence, while still getting rid of Oto. When you read this post, it's made very clear to you that he thinks Oto is green. I'd go even further to say that he knows that he's green. But alas, "That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it." Yea, lets get that information out of him that you said there wasn't any of... This post was made immediately after. He has the inherent feeling that he needs to defend his choice without anyone accusing him. Remember, it's for the information. This post is the most telling. He tells everyone what he knew all along. Oto flipping green will not give information. He also knows that Oto is going to flip green, and that explains all the effort he put in to make sure that he would not be a suspect after his death. His last 3 posts were shortly before the lynch, and all pushed the same message. Oto being lynched was the perfect way for Willz to look innocent and to stay out of the light. It was too suspicious not to bring up. After thinking about it, a DT check on Willz wouldn't be too bad of an idea either. Ahh my favorite part, where he has over-extended and now has shown his true [red]scum colors. The reasoning behind him attacking me is fairly obvious, I was being flip floppy over my vote and choices, he called me out on it. I am now a valid target for lynching day3 and an easy case to make from his opinion. However, it backfired because it was a weak argument, and I was defended by blubbdavid and Sburbbles (who was killed Night2). This leads to: + Show Spoiler + On March 07 2012 12:24 DimmuKlok wrote: GG Sbrubbles. Looking forward to it, Willz. I admit my accusation wasn't the most solid. I stand by everything I said, but I accept the explanation you have given. I'm going to see what I can put together with the information we gained with Sbrubbles and Rainmakers death. So he sees that the case against me isn't going his way, more people are suspicious of him than me, realizes his mistake, and posts this in rebuttal? "Oops I guess my accusation wasn't the most solid?" This is also after Sbrubbles gets killed off, one of my strong defenders and one of the people who calls out DimmuKlok. He makes this post to bide his time and await another chance to make new accusations. If he was really town, he should be defending his stance a lot more than meekly backing down. So finally in summary: DimmuKlok pretends to be town and proposes many pro-town things, and shields himself by defending Mementoss. Note his behavior Day1 that Sburbbles compiled: + Show Spoiler + On March 07 2012 06:40 Sbrubbles wrote: No, my line of thought is that he switched into voting for Otoshi to try to lynch him after it was clear that a bandwagon was under way (like he did day 2). Of course, it wasn't enough on day 1 because we had 3 people (discounting myself and Otoshi, of course) who failed to vote. His initial vote was Beorn. For reference: + Show Spoiler + On March 03 2012 10:03 kitaman27 wrote: Day One Final Count OtoshimonoU -6 trackd00r Mementoss Rainmaker5 Maverick32x DimmuKlok gunman103 Beorn1 -1 Sufficiency Tiystus -0 No Lynch-1 Sbrubbles Pablols, Tiystus, OtoshimonoU, Beorn1 have all failed to vote. I will be pming them to see if they require a replacement. If I'm unable to do so, they will be modkilled. + Show Spoiler + On March 06 2012 10:35 kitaman27 wrote: Day Two Tally OtoshimonoU -7 blubbdavid Maverick32x OtoshimonoU gunman103 Pablols DimmuKlok willz22912 Sufficiency -0 No lynch -1 Sufficiency Rainmaker5-2 Sbrubbles trackd00r Rainmaker5 still need to vote. Thirty minutes remain DimmuKlok initially votes Beorn1 a lurker agreeing with his buddy Sufficiency here. However, he sees that the vote is more likely to go in favor for OtoshimonoU and changes it accordingly. Day2 he doesn't post any new reasoning behind staying for OtoshimonoU, and calls me out for changing my vote to OtoshimonoU even though it was my opinion that OtoshimonoU would be town. Now that OtoshimonoU was successfully lynched as a mis-lynch he is looking for new targets, and the case against me is made to start suspicion for a day3 lynch. As for the night kills and how they help DimmuKlok. DimmuKlok built his credibility by defending Mementoss, Mementoss was also one of the most active posters and even commented saying DimmuKlok was "confirmed town". By killing him that Night1, he retains his credibility and removes one of the most dangerous threats to people noticing his inconsistency. Night2, killing Sbrubbles aside from being our medic, was one of my defenders, and even called out DimmuKlok for his more suspicious behavior. Removing him would weaken any arguments I make because I could not use his future support. I truly believe that DimmuKlok is truly [red]scum and I would highly suspect Sufficiency as well. If town is to win this game, we need to not have a single mis-lynch, and we can only do that by agreeing on the most likely suspects. I hope you agree with this case and choose to vote DimmuKlok for day3. This post was already super long, but please take a look at my supporters blubbdavid and Sbrubbles and their evidence against DimmuKlok as well. ##Vote: DimmuKlok | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
On March 08 2012 03:15 DimmuKlok wrote: Willz, your case on me comes down to me looking like a town and behaving like a town, therefor I'm mafia in disguise. You said yourself we can't have a single mislynch, yet your proposal is to lynch the guy who's so pro town he's suspicious. The most surprising part of your post is that you were actually willing vote for me immediately after it. I'm guessing it's a scare tactic. If I was worried about being considered mafia, I wouldn't be so open with my posting. If you look at my posts from a town point of view, it's very easy to see my agenda in every post. I'm going to post again soon with any info I can come up with. Lets try to keep it as active as possible for this day. To DimmuKlok: So what's your read on Sufficiency that you promised to post if anyone asked, and can you explain what I quoted about your interaction with him Day1 and blindly agreeing with him to vote Beorn1 even though you contradict yourself later and say you were planning on voting for OtoshimonoU all along? That's town behavior in your opinion, if it is, then why'd you call me out for doing the same vote changing on OtoshimonoU? You're still my top pick for scum, sorry. As for everyone else, I can see trackd00r's case on gunman, but then trackd00r hasn't posted anything at all regarding DimmuKlok's accusations towards me, and neither have the other lurkers. So we take our chances picking a random lurker like gunman based off one person's case? With probably little to no rebuttal? I at least presented some serious points against DimmuKlok, but if you people want to roll the dice, then I'm not changing my vote this time. On March 08 2012 04:13 blubbdavid wrote: Let me check some points of your post willz. The death of Mementoss indeed built up some cred. But not so much like Otos death did for Scrubbles. Killing a townie after he supports you is a risky tactic, wouldn't it be better if Mementoss lived to support Dimmu? And by killing Scrubbles, wouldn't it make it obvious to take a look at Dimmu? I mean Scrubbles was against Dimmu. By killing Scrubbles, Dimmu would easily get the suspicion of us. That's just something that worried me about your analysis. But I pretty much like the rest. But I will stay on gunmaker for now. To blubbdavid: How would killing a townie after he supports you be a risky tactic after the poor events of Day1? There was hardly any participation, the majority of players Day1 had low post counts, DimmuKlok and Mementoss were one of the most active. Would anyone have any good reason why Mementoss was targetted or any supsects? No, of course not, there was little information, and no reason to suspect DimmuKlok at this time. Do you really think that all mafia just try and lurk as much as possible? It's fairly obvious to go after lurkers, but it is not obvious to go after people who are the most active. Being active does not and should not give you the automatic feeling that someone is town, nor should it be a defense. Take a look at DimmuKlok's filter yourself and see how much useful information he really does post. It's not a lot, but hey he's active right? By removing the only other active poster and having so much credibility, DimmuKlok dispels a lot of suspicion towards him, which is what Mafia would want! But even if you disregard how the Night kills may or may not have affected DimmuKlok, can you explain his behavior with Sufficiency, or the fact that he called me out and then retracted it with a "I guess my case wasn't that strong" when numerous people jumped to my defense? Why make a case against me at all then if you're not confident in your read. He says my vote against him is a scare tactic, at least I'm willing to stand by my case and defend it until he posts a convincing defense besides one paragraph. In fact, I'm interested in seeing DimmuKlok's opinion on who we should vote for, considering you all believe he is still town. | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
I have no other read on Sufficiency besides his lack of posting and his previous behavior, and it seems like he's our only concrete suspect at this time. Guess we'll see who gets killed off this Night... | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
Myself: I made a poor case of defending OtoshimonoU, I overly accused DimmuKlok, and I haven't contributed to this thread much targetting any other player. My vote on gunman was bandwagoning 100%, I wanted to push DimmuKlok but could not convince the majority, and I did not disagree with the read on gunman and I didn't want to waste my vote. Objectively, I can say that this is suspicious behavior and warrants more scrutiny, I can only hope that you can see that it's more poor town play than Mafia behavior, but I freely state that I should be a valid suspect for a Day4 lynch. Sufficiency: Probably mafia. You can see through this posts that he hasn't put that much effort. He says that playing Mafia is too time consuming, and personally I agree with that, but there is no other read to make other than either really poor town play or scum, but we can't afford a mis-lynch, so this gets tricky. DimmuKlok: Possible suspect. I made a case against him earlier using his interaction with Sufficiency as one of my key points. I honestly don't know about him now. If he was Mafia, he definitely bus'd gunman so that we would just finish ourselves off with a mis-lynch. However, he could just be town and I misread him, I really can't say and as stated, we can't afford a mis-lynch so we have to be really sure. Maverick23: Probably town. One of the more active posters, but a lot of his posts reading through filter were pretty useless. He was also one of the ones who tunneled really hard on OtoshimonoU, so I was initially very concerned and kept him in mind as a possible suspect. Still, looking through his behavior throughout the game, the only thing I can really accuse him of using his own words is being a too "bloodthirsty" townie. He made several good points on other people like besides OtoshimonoU that I do agree wit trackd00r: Neutral, possible suspect. The stunt you pulled last minute was pretty annoying to me to be honest. I was trying to keep track of the thread's activity in between doing schoolwork, and was lurking the thread for a good couple of hours to keep up to date on any shenanagins. Then I wasn't on the computer close to the deadline and you made your switch case. This really set off my suspicions, but if you say it was a bait tactic, I'll have to take your word for it. I feel like your analysis of Mafia's possible options to be pretty spot on, but I think you're discounting the fact that vote was a mis-lynch = town lose situation. In that case, I think gunman was not worth saving if he was such a strong suspect for everyone, and a radical vote change to save him would be too obvious for his teammates . All Mafia need to do at this point is lie low and drive us to a mis-lynch. So your proposal was neat, but it was highly doubtful they were going to take the bait... but if you were Mafia it would give you the opportunity to show town goodwill while still bussing gunman103, so now you're a suspect to me, or I just read everything in a too suspicious doublethink measure (been reading 1984 for class ;p) blubbdavid: Probably town. Defended me along with Sbrubbles against DimmuKlok's case. Don't know what else to make about that behavior when he could have easily supported DimmuKlok and made me a possible lynch candidate for Day3. He also threw valid holes in my counter-case against DimmuKlok, so he isn't a blind bandwagoner, even though he did end up "liking my case" a lot. I can't read this as anything besides town behavior towards me and in general. | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
He came into this thread as a replacement and with some strong analysis against Sufficiency and OtoshimonoU. As we've seen Oto flipped green, making this suspect now. Other than that, he hasn't posted that much except in my defense. He was one of the ones who started the vote against gunman, and was the one I listened to after I asked who to vote for Day3. I don't have a good read on him other than how he's interacted with me, and pointing me towards gunman seems like town behavior. I apologize but this is my first game and I came in as a replacement. I also have been getting busier with school so I would like to wrap this up win or lose pretty fast, and I just don't have time to really read over every single world everyones ever said. I have played pretty poorly so far in my own opinion and I can't really offer much in the way of evidence against anyone except for the case that I made against DimmuKlok which is too risky to pursue until we see how Sufficiency flips. In summary as well, I'm most likely going to vote Sufficiency Day4 unless major information is obtained on who gets killed this night that gives us a better suspect. | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
On March 11 2012 11:45 DimmuKlok wrote: Ok, I think that's enough lurking for everyone. It seems like everyone didn't want to post their opinion on Maverick before the night came. Understandable, but we need to begin discussion again. If you look at my counter post against Maverick, it should be pretty easy to see that he is one of the remaining mafia. I need to hear what everyone thought about my post. Asap, because I don't want to waste time. Why are you rushing a vote on Maverick before Sufficiency? We have 48 hours. What time are we wasting? You bring up some interesting points yes, but why push this before someone we all agree on? Do you still agree that Sufficiency is Mafia? If so, both of you do agree with that, so one of you is lying and willing to bus your last teammate, which is still a win for town. Sufficiency first, and then we smoke out the last member. Otherwise this is pretty damning evidence against you DimmuKlok. | ||
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willz22912
United States255 Posts
On March 11 2012 13:28 DimmuKlok wrote: Yes, in case you were wondering, that is me saying willz is the other mafia member. Gee I'm glad your time wasn't wasted, we have ~44 hours left to vote and you immediately know who to vote for. Thanks. I'll redo my case against you with the new evidence you kindly provided. You're being pretty desperate to pull this stuff with so much time left on the vote. There's only 5 of us, to get a successful lynch off you need 3. Me and Maverick clearly won't vote against ourselves, which leaves you, blubb, and sufficiency. 2 of you are Mafia. Give me a good reason why you pick me because of my post, when it could have been ANYONE town who called you out on your ridiculous notion of not wasting any time. | ||
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