EPThurray!
Newbie Mini Mafia III
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slOosh
3291 Posts
hurray! | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
"The Godfather has the ability to decide what role he will appear to be when a Detective role checks him" Since the cops can only find alignment this setup, does this mean he can only decide to appear as townie / mafia ? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 24 2012 13:37 Probulous wrote: Am I correct in saying that no-one knows whether there is a miller, even the miller themselves, until the miller flips? Holy hell that could cause some problems  Piggybacking off this question: Is this half open setup (roles are known but which ones and how many aren't)? Also, a question to the TL Mafia people in general: the in standard way for mafia to communicate night actions through pms? I'm not sure since I've only read games and some QuickTopics, but never any mafia pm threads if such things exist. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
From the two newbie minis I've read, it seems like inactivity was quite detrimental. Let's make sure that people don't get away with lurking! | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
It's slightly understandable given that it is Newbie Mafia, but to say our only options are randomly lynching or no-lynching seems a bit too much in my opinion. I base this on the other newbie minis where a plan (such as pressuring inactives) lead to discussion and therefore more information upon which the town made better-than-random lynch cases I don't like this defaulting to random lynch. It allows for WIFOM and general chaos in general as it is not built on something solid such as post analysis but , as its name suggests, something completely random. I don't think this is a pro - town idea. Promoting a good town atmosphere will lead to educated guesses, so I say we wait until people had a chance to read and post, then we pressure inactives and go from there. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum. To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are. Ok this post is really weird. 1) OP clearly states Mafia KP. On January 24 2012 08:35 dreamflower wrote: Mafia Goon Your goal is to eliminate everyone else in the town. Your ability, as a group, is killing off whomever you decide on at night and knowing the role of each other player in your mafia. You may kill your own members. Mafia killing power is always 1 until there are no mafia remaining. Of course this is a newbie game so y'know, people make mistakes. 2) This post doesn't actually give us anything new or that helpful. We can do the math and figure how many mislynches we have till Lylo, which isn't information you typically use day 1. I mean, unless you push for no lynch, how's that info help? 3) This is the part that got me from giving benefit of the doubt to feeling weird: On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are. What the heck? Who does this? Who addresses town? A town post would have started at "we need to post more ...". #FOS zelblade | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO On January 25 2012 19:22 zarepath wrote: I think the strongest argument against doing this is that, because of the high mafia/town ratio, we only have 2 miss-lynches before it's LYLO, as zelblade pointed out. On January 25 2012 23:55 zarepath wrote: Okay, forget random lynching. I still think targeting someone randomly and seeing how they respond is better than policy-lynching the quiet people, but I think it's a good point that with 4 mafia, we can only miss-lynch twice. I would like to stop this poor logic before it ingrates itself into the town's mindset: Knowing how many mislynches we have does NOTHING. You don't say, oh we have spare townies we can just make this questionable lynch, it's ok if we mess up since its not lylo yet. Also, I the idea of random lynches has been SHUT DOWN. We've discussed that it is a poor idea. We should stop discussing unless someone brings up a good counter point. Otherwise we have mafia getting away with agreement posts that are insubstantial but impress the notion that they are helping town and contributing. Fostering discussion is not the goal. Fostering good discussion is the goal. Talking about topics that everyone has already talked about and agreed upon is not discussion. It is clutter and an opportunity for mafia to pretend to contribute. Please stop. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Fostering good discussion is the goal where good is defined as catching and killing mafia. Everything we do should fall under this category and if it doesn't we shouldn't do it. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
12 out of 13 people have posted (TheFearedBeing has not). So 3 or 4 mafia have posted something. Yet I still see many people lurking and getting by without posting anything substantial. I invite you to take a quick glance at the player filters and see this for yourselves. Now I'm not going to point people out right now because I don't want to give mafia a chance to change the subject off the "FakePromise's 30%" - lynch, but I want everyone to be wary and NOT ASSUME the lurker problem is over. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
I've refrained from posting .... I'll be posting again in roughly 13~14 hours from now when I get out of class. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Since Simberto seems like the most pro town here, I want to ask for his/her opinion. I think I have a substantial case (better than the FakePromise case), but it is against someone who is slightly above that "barely more" level. Would it be good for us to go for this person or is it better for us to really pressure the harder lurkers? Hopefully will find sometime during the day to post, but if not I'll be there before the deadline for sure. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Until then I really want to see Chocolate and balt11t post. I don't want them to get away lurking until something big happens and they can pretend to contribute. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Say half the group does not vote and get modkilled. The remaining group can still decide to lynch as there is a lower, attainable majority lynch number. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
The worst thing we can have is clutter; the thread is the only means of town communication. Now as we've seen, there are already many players who are suspect. - Zelblade's timidity and apologetic tone - FakePromise's 30% and general apathy - small time posters e.g balt11t, CosmosXAM and Chocolate etc. HOWEVER, reading kitaman27's Newbie Mini Mafia left an impression on me. While we are so focused on catching lurker mafia, there can be outspoken, active and seemingly helpful mafia disguising as town that fly under the radar and whose influences are not well noted (Ciryandor in the game linked). We have a bunch of lurkers, but lets not devote all our attention and resources trying to pick off which is which. While we should go after lurkers (p.s. I suggest if we have any vigis that we use those shots on them, Ace's vigi / cop guide) we should not ever assume that active players are town confirmed. This is the mindset with which I read over the thread. I will now push forward the Zarepath Lynch. ##Vote Zarepath Zarepath's filter. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Case I: + Show Spoiler + Zarepath opens the day's discussions with a random / no lynch proposal. We've discussed how it is a poorly thought out, Anti-Town plan. However, read between the lines with me (set 1 is italicized , set 2 is bolded, set 3 underlined) + Show Spoiler + On January 25 2012 13:28 zarepath wrote: So, the first question I think has to be this: What do we want to accomplish on Day 1? We either no-lynch or randomly lynch, as far as I can tell. We don't have much game history to draw upon as far as deciding who to cut early. I see several possible outcomes: Randomly lynch a mafia/red: This is clearly the best possible outcome. If we have worthwhile hunches to go on, it's possible we can lynch a mafia on the first Day. From what I've read it's unlikely, but still possible; it all depends on what kind of discussion we see today. Randomly lynch a townie/blue: Bad. The only upside is that we can then use the information from that lynching to determine likely mafia. Who was most excited about randomly lynching that particular person? Who bandwagonned on? Who were the last few votes who made the lynch possible? No-lynch: We don't get a mafia, or confirmation of who isn't mafia. Because there's no risk of lynching a townie/blue, this seems to be very safe. But what I wonder is this: if we don't lynch anyone today, our information for Day 2 is limited, and we give the mafia a night to kill someone. We end up with 1 dead townie before we're willing to make deductions. Maybe it's riskier to not lynch someone on the first night, because we'd have less information to go on. So what I'm suggesting is this: we lynch someone randomly. Say, by reverse-alphabetical order. There's no reason at all for us to suspect this person. But by deciding to lynch them, we'll either see a lot of defense (ie, they're mafia), or a lot of people agreeing with killing that person (ie, those people are mafia.) Once that person flips blue or red, we'll know who was who. TLDR; I suggest that we randomly lynch zelblade, or seriously discuss it, and see what happens from there. Set 1 (italicized) This isn't a hard slip up but it isn't quite null tell either. The question is good. What do we want to accomplish. He doesn't answer his own question though. He offers a plan and sweeps the question under the rug. Don't think he is a mafia, but I start to watch out for him. Set 2 (bolded) Look at his mentions of alignments (mafia, blue, town). Look past the plan itself and observe his word choice. Did you see what I saw? "Once that person flips blue or red". You KNOW it was NOT a typo since one paragraph above he uses the phrase "1 dead townie" and that he considers the two factions mafia and townie/blue. I believe he has blue hunting on his mind and it leaked out. I am definitely suspicious and decide a full blown analysis is worth investing into. Set 3 (underlined) This is a recurring theme that doesn't make sense. Set 3 will continue well into his other posts. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Case 2: + Show Spoiler + Set 1 bolded set 2 italics + Show Spoiler + On January 25 2012 19:22 zarepath wrote: The point is that upon flip, we have much more to go on. Anyone irrationally defending you now, if it turns out you're mafia, has a solid chance of also being mafia. So no, not anyone defending you is necessarily mafia, and not necessarily anyone accusing you, but upon flip, we can figure out which side of that we can throw our suspicions. After reading others' responses to the idea: no, a RNG lynch would NOT be as useful to us, because we don't learn anything from it (as has been pointed out). By me randomly accusing someone, that person is forced to speak, and others are forced to defend if mafia/bandwagon if he's not. I argue that the process has already begun, based on the content of some of these posts. I think the strongest argument against doing this is that, because of the high mafia/town ratio, we only have 2 miss-lynches before it's LYLO, as zelblade pointed out. Lynching lurkers is not as great a strategy as it sounds. As others pointed out, mafia can just decide to post more, and then suddenly we're looking at lynching the less-active townies just because they don't talk enough. People who don't post at all get modkilled anyway, and seeing as how this is a newbie game, there are probably several lurkers who just don't know where to get started. I also agree that we should go after suspicious people. And I think we'll find out who they are by continuing to pressure zelblade. Set 1 (bolded) He is pushing for a kill for information. Information!! He doesn't care if its not a mafia, because he wants information! He uses the word "necessarily" twice, and after the flip the information can help town "[cast] our suspicions". He doesn't even value the information gained from the flip that highly. Set 2 (italics) Zelblade points out that town has 2 mislynches to Lylo (which I think is unhelpful information but that is beside the point). Zarepath uses this information. If you use someones info, it means that they are contributing. He ends the post saying that we should go after suspicious people, namely Zelblade. He uses information provided by someone who he thinks as suspicious. He calls for pressure on zelblade that he does not create himself . Please go read his filter right now. Here's a quick example. On January 25 2012 23:55 zarepath wrote: Okay, forget random lynching. I still think targeting someone randomly and seeing how they respond is better than policy-lynching the quiet people, but I think it's a good point that with 4 mafia, we can only miss-lynch twice. But we need something to go on; some way of getting info. I have a few ideas but there are still a lot of people we haven't heard from. Quiet people need to speak up soon. Again, this quest for info (obtained by killing innocents or mafia he doesn't care) and self contradictions. What happened to the pressure Zelblade plan? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Case 3 (last one bear with me guys): + Show Spoiler + It's really messy to show this without going through all the posts so I'll show you one example and you guys can read the filter yourselves. This has to do with the discrepancy in actions and words (like the zelblade pressure) + Show Spoiler + On January 27 2012 00:47 zarepath wrote: I don't know what WIFOM is (these newbie games should have a list of acronyms at the beginning). And that's not a contradiction or flipflop. Mafia would tell him to defend himself because they couldn't be seen defending such an awful argument; but they'd help him defend himself a little bit, at least, which obviously didn't happen. You can count my post as an invalidation of that reasoning, but Fake's safety isn't my prime concern here; mis-lynching is, and with three votes tallied against him, I had to step in before the votes got out of control and we mis-lynched (according to my suspicions). I think that Cosmos is the stronger candidate. Ok. So he says he is concerned with mislynch. As in, lynching people who are not mafia. He says that Fake is not mafia very adamantly On January 26 2012 22:00 zarepath wrote:"I do NOT think that FakePromise is a mafia." yet look at his wording at the end. First, "I think". Not, Cosmos is the stronger candidate, but "I think". Where did that conviction go Zarepath? Furthermore, look at his voting pattern. After he posts his "FakePromise is an inexperienced town" at January 26 2012 22:00, he waits for Simberto to agree and vote first before he casts his own vote 6 minutes after at January 27 2012 03:05. 5 Hours and after someone else goes first. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- OK. Now LISTEN Don't post unless you have either - Analytical arguments against MY Case. I don't care if you want to lynch lurkers. Everyone does. But unless you either refute my case or build another as substantial as mine, which probably can't be done against few-post lurkers, please don't sidetrack or clutter discussion. - Or you are Zarepath defending yourself. I partially DIDN'T want to post this because it would give mafia an easy out of lurking by just agreeing with me and blah blah blah. So to prevent that, please clear the way for Zarepath to speak, or speak on his behalf. Again, I make my stance and vote clear: ##Vote Zarepath | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
If you agree with me just Vote. Don't let him weasel out of this. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
If every slight misuse of the term "blue" is supposed to mean you're mafia, we're going to have a hard road figuring things out. It's your choice of using "blue" to represent town alignment that is questionable, especially considering you used the phrase "townie/blue" several times in the same post. It's not a slight misuse to say that blue means town. Using green to represent town is common. No one uses blue to do it. Except you. I don't see the problem with this, either. Yes, I do. This is semantics. "Necessarily" means that I'm not implying that both accusers and defenders are guilty of being mafia; "necessarily" means that it's one or the other, and upon flip, we know which one. Lynching for info is dumb. We get info regardless of who is lynched, and yet you keep using this excuse to push forward lynches. It is clear that we have thrown out no-lynch as a poor choice. It is illogical to use this excuse of information gathering to support lynching specific people. I'm the ORIGINAL pressure on zelblade. All zelblade pressure originated from me calling for his lynch at the very beginning. Yea, sure: My post, Zel's response, then yours 3 posts and 5 hours down. Who was the one with the FOS ???? Vote timing is hardly an indication of me being mafia. Wouldn't it have been more suspicious for me to wait for someone to disagree, and then back off my "FakePromise is innocent" argument? Honestly, the least-suspicous timing would have been for me to vote exactly when I posted. This wasn't one of the cases I pushed, but you use WIFOM very often. Wouldn'ts and woulds don't help us. Vote timing IS an indication. If you really believed it to be true then you stick with it. Much like I am sticking my neck out gunning for you. If you can't even make the first vote on your own analysis then clearly you don't believe it, you aren't acting on your words and that is called deception - something only a mafia would do. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 27 2012 11:18 Simberto wrote: Apparently, we won't get a lynch on zarepath in time, so i will change my vote back to FakePromise. At least this way we have one less lurker and absolute noncontributor. And if he flips red, we need to really take a look at zarepath. If he does not, we need to really reconsider our assumptions. I would suggest everyone with a vote on zarepath (or those random useless votes) to do the same, since voting ends in 45 minutes and we only have 4 of 7 needed votes on zarepath, while there are now 7 votes on FakePromise (which would be enough, but is not really safe). ##unvote Zarepath ##voteFakePromise FakePromise flipping either one does not dissolve my analysis and arguments. It might add weight to the other side, but my case still stands as the only real analysis argument. A good mafia looks like town and it is a critical error to let them blend in and look over those tells and motives that indicate that they aren't town . | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Looks like a bus in action. (Bussing is when a mafia who knows that they will die and so try to give credibility and influence to another mafia member with their death. In this case I think mafia is bussing Fake to make zarepath look better.) I want to emphasize that fakepromise flipping whatever does not throw my analysis out the window. It does not. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
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