RO16 Preview:
Two Days of the Best vs the Best
Probe1
If you asked me to predict the round of sixteen, I'd tell you that I bet with my heart while mumbling something about being in 5000th place of Liquibet. If you asked me again, I'd tell you the truth: I have no idea.
Look at the groups. My god. MMA, NesTea, Huk and Leenock. In a single group. It's a group you could imagine plotting to take over the world of SC2 Gaming and they're in direct competition for the round of eight. Groups B through D all show massive promise for entertainment, however Group A is the crowning jewel of this incredible lineup. MMA and Nestea facing off against each other on a macro Antiga with the gold bases missing? Yes, GOD YES! HuK facing Leenock on Crossfire? I do believe these match-ups are giving me the vapors! Top 3 control against the 16 year old wunder-Zerg. It's GSL at its finest. They're giving us semi-final worthy match ups before they even get to the quarter-finals. November 15th is worth canceling your plans, ignoring your phone and (if required) staying up all night to catch some incredible players match against each other.
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/images/maps/497_Calm%20Before%20the%20Storm_thumbnail.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/bVmvo.jpg)
Our new map, Calm Before the Storm, has already been played 15 times since it's inclusion in the GOM map pool at the start of November. At time of writing, it has been played on for 9 days straight. It was introduced back at the end of July by the good guys at SC2Prime, and I'll be honest: I really like this map. Every step away from using Blizzard created maps is a good step in my mind (so many bad memories of Kulas Ravine. Although now that I think about it... That one choke defending three bases, maybe it would have brought balance to Protoss). Extrapolating opinions from under 50 games is useless, however, and we'll just have to wait until it plays out to see how balanced of a map it is. But it certainly is a good looking map, and is providing some really fun games so far.
Bel'shir Beach (Winter Wonderland Edition) has followed the rest of the GSL November maps in losing its high yield expansions in return for an extra geyser and the removal of destructible rocks. Out of the 19 games played so far its been a bit of a nightmare for Zergs. What irony! The map that debuted as one of the most Zerg favored gifts the swarm had ever seen currently sits at 1-5 and 1-3 for ZvT and ZvP respectively. A part of me enjoys the reversal of fortune. However, all the other parts groan. Nestea dropped a game to sC, Curious and CrazymovING were both dismissed readily, and even July was sent away by Puzzle. There have only been two non mirror match wins for Zerg so far. They consisted of DRG doing what he does best against Supernova and CoCa showing Oz what it's like under the big lights all alone in the booth. As with all opinions based on small sample sizes, however, it's entirely wrong to assume the map is definitively favored one way or another.
Reminder: The Ro16 uses the old OSL Dual Tournament/MBCGame Survivor League format, or in the other words, the exact same format as the Code S Ro32. Players who place 3rd and 4th in their group will fall to the Code A RO24. The Code A Round of 24 isn't as bad as it sounds. It's not Code S, but you only need to win a single series to get back into Code S. And even if you lose, you are guaranteed a slot in the Up and Downs.
Ah, whatever. Let's give it a shot anyway. Here's how I think the RO16 will play out: For your viewing pleasure: I present to you:
November 15th
Group A
1.
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
2.
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
3.
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
4.
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
Waait, did you just list predictions following the group order? Well, yes with the exception of reordering Nestea to the top, I did. Let's get things straight: Huk is marvelous. His control is only rivaled by a select few champions. Leenock cuts swathes of nerds down and believe it or not has some of the most tried and most successful ZvT in Korea. But they aren't MMA. They aren't Nestea. Chalk this up to bad luck by being placed in the hardest group of the tournament. They're going down to the Code A Ro24.
Truthfully, Nestea hasn't had a fun time recently. But it's the rallying cry of all Nestea fans that he puts more effort and training into the GSL over any other competition. Whether you agree or not, it must be conceded that he does have nearly incomparable results in the studio at Mok-Dong. He'll prove again that he's more than just one of the oldest pro-gamers out there, but one of the best. MMA, in a similar but younger package, will dazzle spectators and his opponents alike with a demonstration of Terran ingenuity that could only be compared to one from the Emperor of old.
*Disclaimer: I am a massive Nestea fanboy.
Group B
1.
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
2.
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
3.
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
4.
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
It's a big world Oz, and you're about to find out why there are no easy groups in the GSL. You've landed yourself in the good ol' boy group and Happy is going to wreck you for it like he did DRG. Killer will stay in Code S. It's what he does regardless of who stands in his way. He was the only Protoss remaining in the round of 16 last month and after tonight he'll have extended the streak. aLive was a dangerous mainstay of Code S that just refused to fall down to Code A. This month and this format should be what it takes to finally break the chains attach him to Code S. But that won't matter much to you Oz, I'm sorry. You've got a big heart. It's just not in the cards for you. IMHappy is a sick monster of TvT, and holds his own against the best even if his results are usually disappointing. As long as he keeps his nose clean and gives Protoss the truncheon, it will be smooth sailing for him against aLive.
November 16th
Group C
1.
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
2.
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
3.
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
4.
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
Need I explain? GanZi is a boss. AOL finalist, Code A Winner; He has what it takes and he's been graced not to have placed in the same group as MVP. I've showed a lack of faith in other Code A up and comers but this one I'm ready to put my weight and words behind. One month after Code A he has already placed in the semi finals of Code S. One week from now he'll be back to the Round of Eight. MC is more difficult to predict. Will we see the President? The Bosstoss? Or dismay at some stale timing-attack and cringe as he backs down to Code A. With no Zergs in his group I feel comfortable saying one of the winningest PvT progamers, MC, will finish 2nd over his contemporary Puzzle and a dangerous sC.
sC, the Terran that has defeated MC twice recently and taken games off the twin gods of the Swarm (Nestea and Losira). He is a potent competitor and has been immortalized by his prior performances. Could he upset my predictions completely by defeating everyone in the group, including GanZi? An argument could be made for that..
And Puzzle!
Group C takes the coveted title of 'most infuriatingly difficult to predict.'
Group D
1.
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
2. Moe
3. Larry
4. Curly
Group C is the group of uncertainty but D is the polar opposite. MVP is going to LOL all over the group. Sorry. It's worth noting that his opponents' names are
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
MVP vs Jjakji: MVP, inspired by his second game against MKP in WCG, takes to the sky and masses ravens, cattlebruisers and vikings.
MVP vs CoCa: Upon deciding that blue flame hellions ARE good, he decides to make only blue flame hellions. 800 seconds later, he defeats CoCa by hard countering roaches with 30 hellions and proceeds to tickle roast all things that swarm and creep in the night.
MVP vs GuMiho: MVP pulls out all the stops with a Gheed tested and approved worker rush.
It's worth mentioning I had this crazy theory. When MC went to the up and downs I had a tingly feeling in the psychic part of my brain. Out of no where I madly predicted he would drop out of the GSL, go on to win MLG and return right back to Code S with a fat paycheck for his efforts instead of the grueling labor of Code A. I was close. He only managed to get second at MLG. But there's something to be learned from my slightly off, completely nuts prediction.
MC is a champion. He had the ethic of a champion before. Whatever happened that made him slump was not present on November 1st when he savagely beat Ryung twice. He stands with as realistic a chance of making it to the Round of 8 as every other competitor. If you're an MC fan you don't believe his time ever stopped being at hand. But if you like MC and had doubts over the last month- stop doubting now. This Christmas the Boss Toss is BACK.
![[image loading]](http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft/images2/thumb/d/db/Irongsl3.png/92px-Irongsl3.png)
GSL November Power Rank
Fionn & Fishuu
"But MVP lost the GSL finals! He lost to MMA! That means MMA is the bestest in the world!"
NO
NO, MMA FAN! NO!
Yes, MVP lost the GSL finals, and yes, the GSL is weighted above the other leagues heavily, but one title does not put you over MVP. It might put you over Nestea, but MVP is still, even after the loss, the best player in the entire world. After losing to MMA, he went onto win $50,000 against Nestea in the Blizzcon finals. Oh, and just because his wallet was large enough, he won the Korean Qualifier for the World Cyber Games and Arena of Legends, after coming back from 0-2 against Ganzi, for another $10,000.
MVP went through his November GSL group like it was another day on the ladder, and he is in prime position to make his third finals in a row. While MMA, Huk, Leenock and Nestea have to kill each other in the Group of Death, MVP should have the stamina to get out of his group and make the quarterfinals. Right now, the scariest player to face in the entire world is MVP, and he has the aura of someone who can't be beat when he is 100% and focused solely on his opposition.
"So does that mean MVP is a bonjwa?! YEAH! HE WON BLIZZCON, ARENA OF LEGENDS, AND WCG! BONJWA!!!"
NO
NO, MVP FAN! NO!
Okay, MMA fanboys and girls who would kill me in my sleep if I didn't put him at least second. After a traumatic first GSL finals, getting swept by Polt [*approximately 250 words until the first Polt reference] in four straight, MMA fought back in Anaheim, using the crowd support and extra practice to take down MVP. You can really notice the increase in maturity and overall evolution of MMA in these past few months from his first and second finals. The MMA that played Polt would have never used such risky strategies and went for the kill like he did. He played with the confidence of a champion and it paid off in the end, beating MVP 4-1 and capturing his first title. He outwitted MVP on the night and rightfully deserved his trophy.
For an encore performance, he entered this season's GSL and cleaned house, just like MVP, and made it through his group without much of a sweat. Now, with the first round of the way, he is going to have to step right into the fire, going up against Nestea in his first match of the Round of 16 group play. If you thought that was bad, he has to face one of the best ZvT players in Leenock and MLG Orlando champion Huk, who has 2-0'ed MMA before in the GSL and was the main reason why it took so long for MMA to get into Code S. If MMA wants to keep his second spot on the Power Rank and even look up to the heavens for first, he is going to have to impress in this group. Can he do it?
"Of course he can, idiot! HE BEAT MVP IN THE GSL FINALS! HE SHOULD BE #1! HE IS THE SON OF THE EMPEROR!"
Okay, that's enough from you, MMA fan. I'm locking my PM box and if you keep bugging me, I will pick him to win the entire tournament like I did with poor Supernova.
What can I really say about Nestea this month? Last tournament, like usual, he met MVP and got beat. This time he did get closer, getting to the fifth set before losing. He also met MVP at the Blizzcon Invitational in the final and lost (or threw...or fell asleep...or something), making their overall tally against each other something like MVP 9,456 and Nestea 3. Still, even with his continual GSL losses to MVP, you can't say that he still isn't one of the best players in the world. If he wasn't matched up against anyone other than MVP, he more than likely makes the finals for the past two tournaments.
Unlike the two above him, he had a somewhat rocky opening group, getting banshee cheesed in his first game against sC and losing, having to win two in a row against asd and his teammate Losira to get out of the group. Like mentioned above in MMA's section, Nestea will have to face the reigning champion in his first match of the second round. They have met in the past two GSL's, MMA winning in August and Nestea in October. Now, in the rubber match, these two will battle once more to see if MMA's drops can really take down Nestea's stellar macro play.
Looking back at last month's Power Rank, putting Ganzi in the top ten and saying he had potential to go far was probably one of the only smart picks I made. I had DongRaeGu at third (oops); Ryung in fourth (bigger oops), Bomber in fifth (gigantic oops); Polt in sixth (I stand by this decision); Losira in seventh (meow oops), and finally, the worst of all, TOP, who I put in the ninth spot and now he is entirely out of the GSL. The four people who weren't mistakes, MVP, Nestea, MMA and MVP, are the top four for this month and the only ones from last month who remain in the Power Rank. Obviously this just shows how volatile the scene is at the moment and not that I'm cursing them somehow by putting them in the Power Rank.
Ganzi made it all the way to the semifinals in October, making a statement that he is clearly one of the best terrans in the world and shouldn't be forgotten like his teammate Ryung. He did lose to MVP in the semifinals with a score of 1-3, but he showed great promise in the games and made MVP play to his very best. The two would then meet again in the Arena of Legends final, Ganzi getting a two game lead before losing three straight to the best player in the world not named Clide. He continued his promising play this tournament, getting out of one of the harder groups 2-0, beating Ensnare in a romp and Polt in possibly the best game of the tournament so far. Hopefully for Ganzi, this fourth spot won't be a curse like his teammate Ryung last month.
MiniVP continues in his master's footsteps, rolling through different leagues with high level mech play and making himself known as one of the strongest mechanical players in the world. In October he got to the semifinals, losing to eventual champion MMA, and delivering a great set of games that he could have won with a bit more experience and luck. In his third Code S, Happy has shown even more excellent mech play, beating DongRaeGu with one of the most imaginative builds that I have seen recently in the GSL and beating down Gumiho in a one-sided TvT.
Looking forward, he is put into a tough group, having to take on the two strongest protoss against terran at the moment, Killer and Oz, and the Ladder Master himself, the man with the voice of a tiny, tiny bunny rabbit, Alive. With Happy's current play, he should have a good chance at advancing. He won't be able to use his top notch mech against the protoss, but he has won four straight against Aiur and is getting better every game he plays. Before long, we might have to stop calling him MiniVP and give him a real nickname.
The Mecha Terran? Tank Dude? Game Shark Terran? Yeah, I can't think of a good one. Your job for this week as a community is give Happy a new nickname. I am counting on you to give him a good one.
If you have noticed a pattern so far in the Power Rank, you are correct. We have had three Incredible Miracle players and two Slayers so far, and we're about to add another Slayers card to the deck. Coca has come on strong the past few months, getting to two quarterfinals in recent GSL's and getting to a final at MLG Raleigh. Surprisingly, his overall record is still under .500 in Korea, but he has an undefeated streak that hasn't been snapped yet in the GSL with his dynamic ZvP. With all five protoss getting out of the first round, Coca might have a field day if he can get matched up with one in the quarterfinal or beyond if he gets that far.
Coca's first round group in November might have not had MMA, Nestea, or MVP, but it could definitely be considered the Group of Death for the first round, housing the always reliable Nada, surging protoss Oz, and the Korean Weekly King, Coca's own teammate, Taeja. Coca took down Oz, like he does with all protoss in the GSL, and then played Taeja in an exciting back-and-forth duel, finally putting down his teammate after a long struggle.
If Coca can get some luck in the draw, not get a Happy or Nestea in the quarterfinal like he has the past two and maybe get stuck with a toss, the top zerg from Slayers might have a chance to get farther than he has ever been in the GSL. And with that, we can wave goodbye to the Incredible and Slayers portion of this Power Rank and go forth towards a race that we haven't seen in a while.
Terrans of the world: Hey Killer, you're washed-up, are degrading in skill, and will never get to a semifinal in your career. You can talk big all you want in group ceremonies, but in the end, you will always end up losing to us and look like a fool. Why don't you just give up and become a hair model?
This would be the part where Killer looks at all the terrans in the world, shakes his head, puts on his sunglasses (to protect his eyes from getting his victims' blood on them) and then rams his fists down every single terran throat without mercy. That is the Code of Killer. No terran from this day forth will ever look down on him again. If you mess with Killer, you will die. He has evolved. He has ascended to new heights of manliness. I heard a rumor on the Korean boards that twelve blind men regained their vision during Killer's dismantling of Jjakji and Virus. No one knows how it happened, but SangHo swears he was not involved.
Killer in October did decently, upsetting Polt in two straight games to get into the round of sixteen as the lone protoss, but was quickly bounced by the perfect ZvP record holder Coca. Killer looked good, but I would still say his wins in that season were more from his opponent playing badly than him playing amazingly. This season is a completely different story; not only is Killer playing some of the crispest and cleanest PvT I've ever seen in the GSL, but he absolutely made two Code S terrans look silly by how Killer played them in their matches.
It's too early to say if Killer has a legit shot of getting to a final, noting that Virus and Jjakji aren't the cream of the crop when it comes to TvP, but it's a good start to a tournament for the protoss from TSL.
Two protoss in the top ten? This is surely new after last month's complete lack of anything zealot or templar. Huk has been picking up his play lately, winning MLG Orlando in a final against MC, and 2-0'ing his Code S group that included Clide and Puzzle. If I were to compare Killer and Huk's first round performances, I would say I was more impressed by the former, but that doesn't mean Huk didn't look dominant in his own right. His play wasn't the cleanest, but I think you can give the guy a pass for traveling around the world every single day of the year, giving gifts to small children and winning Starcraft tournaments. He is like Santa Claus but doesn't take a day off.
If Huk can keep his tournament schedule in check and concentrate on the GSL, he has a shot of getting to the quarterfinals and beyond. On paper, his Ro16 group stage is one of the hardest you could ever imagine: the defending champion MMA, the three-time GSL champion Nestea, and quite possibly the best ZvT player in the world currently with the young Leenock. But when you really look at it, Leenock may be superb at ZvT, but is lackluster against protoss; MMA can beat up all the zergs he want and do very well against terran, but he is historically weak against protoss and that includes a 2-0 loss to Huk in the Up-and-Downs months ago. Nestea would be the toughest opponent for him if they faced off, but Huk has shown he isn't scared of Nestea.
All in all, it's been a good month for Huk. He had a down month last season, but he is looking like the player who got to the quarterfinals in August and could have gotten farther if he didn't have to face MVP. The sky is the limit for the Canadian...American...Korean...Irish...Slovenian protoss.
Protoss. Protoss everywhere. They are spreading!
The last two spots were very hard to give out. With Supernova forsaking me and going 0-2 and dropping to the lowest rung of Code A, he slipped off the ranking even with his impressive results in WCG and Arena of Legends. Throw in all the rest of the top ten players from last month who didn't have a very good November tournament, it was time to look deep for some new heroes. Surprisingly, all of them were either from FXO or had been on FXO at one point or another.
For the ninth spot, I give it to Oz. There really is something about this guy I can't put my finger on. He went from, 'Oh hey, the foreign FXO team got some random Korean to play for them,' to people saying, 'Holy crap, that Oz guy is really good!' Oz did well in both WCG and the Arena of Legends, getting to the quarterfinals of both, and he advanced from, in my opinion, the toughest group of the first round, beating both Nada and Taeja to show off how good his PvT
This spot, a lot like Ganzi last month, is part based on results and part based on potential. Last month I thought Ganzi had the potential to get to the finals and maybe even win the title, and I get the same vibes from Oz. He truly is a magician. You can count him out for one second, believing he isn't all that good, and then he'll turn you around and show you a brilliant PvT that will make you a believer.
So the final spot comes down to three people. Leenock, Gumiho, and sC. Leenock has gotten to the round of sixteen for two straight tournaments; Gumiho had two gigantic upsets, taking down a slumping Bomber and DongRaeGu; and sC 2-0'ed his group, cheesing out Nestea and beating Losira.
As you can see by the picture, I went with Leenock. Unlike the other two who are both just getting back into Code S, Leenock has now shown us in back-to-back seasons that he can be a consistent player in Code S. His ZvT might rival DongRaeGu for best in the world, and he is so young that he still has years upon years of playing before even reaching his prime. sC and Gumiho also played very well, and they deserve recognition as well in this article, but if they got over Leenock in the Power Rank, we would never get that adorable fanart of Leenock with an octopus on his shoulder.
All three mentioned are all equally deserving to be in the tenth spot, but Leenock has the octopus so he wins.
Supernova: ....I'm sorry
MC: Yes, he got out of his group, but Ryung was beyond awful. He waited ten minutes to do an all-in. How does that even happen?
Polt: ...You'll be back. You'll be back.
Bomber: *Looks to the right*
*Looks to the left*
*Looks to the right*
*shrug*
DongRaeGu: You should thank Bomber for taking everyone's eyes off your quick exit.
MarineKing: Yes, he did get to the WCG finals and take a game off MVP, but he also hasn't made it to the round of sixteen in a GSL tournament (no, Code A does not count) since the Super Tournament in July.
Ryung: Who?
Losira: Playing Nestea is hard in ZvZ. Sorry, Losira.
Sage: Artosis is already planning on how to miss his daughter's birth if somehow Sage and Nestea play each other on that day.
Alive: Everyone should be cheering on Alive to make the finals just to see GOM try to make him trash talk his opponent.
This award will go out monthly to the player who falls the highest from grace the fastest. This month's inagular award is a no-brainer. It has to go to TOP.This is TOP's last three GSL tournaments in a nutshell:
- Beats Polt and makes his first ever GSL final
- For some reason, Fionn decides to pick TOP to beat MVP
- MVP crushes TOP
- Coca and Supernova crush TOP
- For some reason, Fionn decides to put TOP into the October Power Rank
- TOP doesn't win a single game in his Up-and-Down group
- Gets knocked out of the WCG
- Gets knocked out in the first round of Code A and out entirely of the GSL
- Fionn gives TOP the LegalMind Award
And somewhere, in her room filled with pictures of TOP's face pasted on naked guys bodies, the TOP Fangirl is planning on flying to America and suing me for ruining her idol's career.
All I have to say to that is: Hey, Inca is back in Code A! Everyone celebrate!
Until next time, Team Liquid.
Writers: Fionn and Probe1.
Graphics and Art: Fishuu, Meko and Pony Tales (disciple and Lip the Pencilboy).
Editor: WaxAngel