Newbie Mini Mafia

On October 28 2011 16:41 prplhz wrote:
with nothing else going on on the tlmafia forums right now, i'm gonna spectate the hell out of this game.

so prepare to be observed! and please be nice to the hosts and your coplayers

On October 28 2011 19:18 Palmar wrote:
If anyone is interested, I can create a private observer thread on QT to discuss this game as it goes along. Newbies who aren't in the game and want to learn and other veterans who can help with guiding them are especially welcome.

Just throw me a pm, if like 3 people are up for it we'll be analysing the game from the outside.

On October 30 2011 14:42 Zanfada wrote:
Day 1 it is very important not to let the mafia lurk and hide in the background. So we have to preasure them and force everyone to interact. If you look at the last mini mafia town lost because of inactivity. So we can't have anyone be inactive.

On October 30 2011 11:27 Drem903 wrote:
Whoever killed GMarshal must hate friendship, quite a bit.. and ponies. He is probably the worst type of scum to ever exist.

On October 30 2011 13:48 Drem903 wrote:
using extensive analysis, and some complex theory. I have decided to blame xsksc for the murder, because his name is impossible to pronounce,

On October 30 2011 20:12 Toadesstern wrote:
oh and just a hint since this is a beginners game:
If you are a dt or medic don't just hide or something.

On November 02 2011 00:48 Toadesstern wrote:
got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day.

Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now.

1) Both red
Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo.

2) Both green
Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit.

3) Skrammen green, I'm red
In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority.
That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what.

4) I'm green, Skrammen is red
In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen.


For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid).
I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked.
2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason).
Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1

I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red.