Individual League Results by Race

zyce

United States649 Posts

August 08 2011 07:37 GMT

Note: Do not treat this thread as an outlet for racial balance. Please do share your opinions about the statistics, and if you believe balance supports your argument then go for it. Otherwise, please limit this discussion to the distribution of winners, the amount of participants per race, general skill levels, and other more interesting and less inflammatory discussion.

I took a look at the results from the Individual League list which has become an ever-increasingly better source of information. I decided it would be interesting to tally up, by race, the number of 1st and 2nd place finishers listed in TLPD.

See for yourself here: Individual League Results

Individual League Winners and Runner-Ups (48 Events. 13 events missing data.):
First place:
Terran - 21
Protoss - 3
Zerg - 11

Second place:
Terran - 20
Protoss - 6
Zerg - 9
Totals:
Terran - 41
Protoss - 9
Zerg - 20

I also made sure to take a look at all the games, not just the champions - thanks SC2 Statistics for the following chart.
[image loading]

Non-mirror winrates by race:
Terran: 56.2%
Zerg: 51.7%
Protoss: 40.9%

Winrates by matchup (2,229 games)
TvZ: 51.8%
PvT: 38.8%
ZvP: 56.6%

Total podiums for Terran is 41, followed by Zerg with 20 and Protoss with 9. It appears that Terran has been taking more than their fair share of wins, particularly compared to the Protoss statistics. These numbers do seem to be statistically significant when paired with the results from SC2 Statistics.

Added: International Statistics!!!!
+ Show Spoiler +

On August 09 2011 06:35 stormfoxSC wrote:
I went through the international individual leagues, for the sake of augmenting the OP with a larger data set. Korea is good to look at, but the data set is very small (and only incorporates the Korean state of the game, so to speak).

Individual League Winners & Runner-Ups (1061 events):

First Place
Terran - 498 (46.94%)
Zerg - 263 (24.79%)
Protoss - 264 (24.88%)
Unknown - 36 (3.39%)

Second Place
Terran - 433 (40.81%)
Zerg - 299 (28.18%)
Protoss - 290 (27.33%)
Unknown - 39 (3.68%)*

Total Finals Appearances (1st + 2nd combined)
Terran - 931 (43.87%)
Zerg - 562 (26.48%)
Protoss - 552 (26.11%)
Unknown - 75 (3.53%)*

Bonus! Since we know that the balance of the game has changed radically between 2010 and 2011 thanks to the great patches Blizzard has released, let's break down the data between these two years.

Individual League Winners & Runner-Ups for 2010 (358 events):

First Place
Terran - 206 (57.54%)
Zerg - 49 (13.69%)
Protoss - 88 (24.58%)
Unknown - 15 (4.19%)

Second Place
Terran - 159 (44.41%)
Zerg - 91 (25.42%)
Protoss - 93 (25.98%)
Unknown - 15 (4.19%)*

Total Finals Appearances (1st + 2nd combined)
Terran - 365 (50.98%)
Zerg - 140 (19.55%)
Protoss - 181 (25.28%)
Unknown - 30 (4.19%)*

Individual League Winners & Runner-Ups for 2011 (703 events):

First Place
Terran - 292 (41.54%)
Zerg - 214 (30.44%)
Protoss - 176 (25.04%)
Unknown - 21 (2.99%)

Second Place
Terran - 274 (38.98%)
Zerg - 208 (29.59%)
Protoss - 197 (28.02%)
Unknown - 24 (3.41%)*

Total Finals Appearances (1st + 2nd combined)
Terran - 566 (40.26%)
Zerg - 422 (30.01%)
Protoss - 373 (26.53%)
Unknown - 45 (3.20%)*

And of course, SC2Statistics!

[image loading]

Non-mirror winrates by race for July:
Terran: 54.2%
Zerg: 48.6%
Protoss: 46.7%

Winrates by matchup for July:
TvZ: 55.4%
PvT: 47.2%
ZvP: 53.8%

Average winrates by race (overall):
Terran: 53.1%
Zerg: 47.1%
Protoss: 48.9%

Average winrates by matchup (overall):
TvZ: 54.8%
PvT: 48.4%
ZvP: 49.7%

Average winrates by race (2010):
Terran: 54.4%
Zerg: 45.8%
Protoss: 48.4%

Average winrates by matchup (2010):
TvZ: 55.5%
PvT: 46.6%
ZvP: 47.9%

Average winrates by race (2011):
Terran: 52.3%
Zerg: 47.9%
Protoss: 49.2%

Average winrates by matchup (2011):
TvZ: 54.4%
PvT: 49.4%
ZvP: 50.8%

-------------------

* Random finals appearances are included in the Unknown column, since I was too lazy to make an entirely new column of data for a few data points (<5) that only appear for runner-up (there were no random 1st place wins).

There is much to consider - metagame shifts, skills transferrable from Brood War to SC2, or a simple predominance of high-quality players choosing Terran. Thankfully, I won't be competing with the Koreans but these figures do influence the way I feel about the metagame I live in.

The Protoss "drought" in Brood War wasn't something any fan enjoyed, and I am fearful of the strength of SC2 Protoss' waning in light of recent events.

Please share your thoughts on race distribution and the state of the metagame. I would love to hear what people think and have to say about this subject. Some minor balance discussion is fine, but that can be found anywhere. What do people think about the current state of the Korean tournament scene?, and how do these stats make you feel about SC2 race triangle we love so dearly?

Gingerninja

United Kingdom1339 Posts

August 08 2011 08:08 GMT

There have been no trailblazing protoss come out of the woods in a while. Only MC, Huk and Naniwa are representing Protoss well at the minute. Puzzle is coming through but theres no real standouts like Zerg have in DRG. but then saying that if you take out July/Nestea/Losira from results... Zerg's are pretty bad too. It's all terran in Korea, you just need to look at Code S this season to see that, and they are strong players too.

The international TLPD has a wider spread of players at a glance.. however I'm not about to sit and count it.

Sfydjklm

United States9218 Posts

August 08 2011 08:11 GMT

but randoms on ladder when put into a mile long equation have equal winrate against each other ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

MonkSEA

Australia1227 Posts

August 08 2011 08:17 GMT

Your maths is bad.

Total events = 48
Total first places = 35

Where are the 13 other First places?

Seems like a Protoss qq thread tbh..

User was temp banned for this post.

FiLmBoT

United States107 Posts

August 08 2011 08:19 GMT

Being a protoss myself I get sad to see results like this, but korean terrans are just really good players with really good players. Also zerg has nestea enough said. But their is always gonna be a drought with a certain race in the tournaments, that is just how the metagame goes.

Even with the drought for protoss, huk has brought two big wins from homestory and dreamhack.

MagickMan

Australia498 Posts

August 08 2011 08:23 GMT

On August 08 2011 17:17 MonkSEA wrote:
Your maths is bad.

Total events = 48
Total first places = 35

Where are the 13 other First places?

Seems like a Protoss qq thread tbh..

Read the thread properly and click on the link. 13 spots are unknown.
Please people think before we post.

SeaSwift

Scotland4486 Posts

August 08 2011 08:29 GMT

Just wait for Blizzcon. Even if Blizz don't bring the lack of Protoss win statistics/new talent/whatever up themselves, somebody else will take it to the panel and they will have to discuss it.

EnOmy

Australia183 Posts

August 08 2011 08:32 GMT

I do find this kind of discussion interesting but I'm just not sure how valuable it is. I think it's likely more of a result of the players that play each race rather than the races themselves. However, obviously, because this game was created by human beings it cannot be perfectly balanced. I don't know how relevant to the conversation that comment is.

JustPassingBy

10776 Posts

August 08 2011 08:34 GMT

Can you divide the numbers of xyz gold medals by the number of participants of the race xyz?
It is natural that chances of a certain race getting gold is higher, if there are more players of that race participating in that tournament.

MonkSEA

Australia1227 Posts

August 08 2011 08:40 GMT

#10

On August 08 2011 17:23 MagickMan wrote:

Show nested quote +

Read the thread properly and click on the link. 13 spots are unknown.
Please people think before we post.

And then I say he should do research on the "13 spots". 4 of them are GSL Up/Downs so of course there's going to be no winner. So we're down to 9 unknowns!!!

Out of those 9 we have the Code A qualifiers. Then FXO KOTH's which have no 'winner' per say and if you wanted to see who won the most games then you click on the links and then you can determine your so called winner. And then it's included GSL August in that list. I mean wtf, the starting games were only played today! So I don't think that's a reputable example.

The only league that hasn't got it's results posted where applicable is that 2nd WTA Takedown! where a zerg looks like they won #1 and #2 with the win/lose ratios. At the very least, a little bit of effort could of been done with the OP instead of just linking to places.

chestnutman

176 Posts

August 08 2011 09:10 GMT

#11

Why am I counting 18 terrans, 6 protoss and 12 zergs? Did you leave out some of the results listed? Anyway, I dont think it's anything new. Terrans are dominating in Korea, by sheer number alone.

Sennap

Iceland88 Posts

August 08 2011 09:33 GMT

#12

Thanks for taking your time to collect this data and share it with the community.

But I don't think this is very accurate to be honest, here's why:

(Everything between the spoiler is fictional, it's just an example that is NOT meant to be true)
+ Show Spoiler +

Let's say there's a player who is simply really, really reallyreally good (Let's call him Nestea and he plays Zerg). So this Nestea qualifies for a KO tournament. His other zerg friends have been having a lot of issues with one MU, lets say it's ZvP. Since it's highly likely that you need to win a protoss player at any point in the qualifiers, most of the zerg can't qualify for the tournament. Nestea on the other hand has studied ZvP so all of the protoss players are having a very hard time beating Nestea. Nestea faces a lot of Protoss players in the tournament and ends up winning it without dropping a game against protoss.

Viewers of the tournament look at Nestea and think "Wow, that player is sooo great". Another SC2 fan who didn't see the tournament decides to look the statistics from the tournament and says "WOW, zerg has a 80% winrate against protoss! Protoss is sooo UP right now".

Another tournament begins a few days later but now Nestea faces a very good player in the first round. Nestea loses and is out of the tournament. That same sc2 fan looks at the statistics yet again and says "zerg now has 20% winrate against protoss, everything's back to normal".

The fact that it's a KO tournament the good players play a lot more games then other worse players who play the same race. So the race's winrate is very heavily dependent how well its best player does in the tournament. Also if the best player has one MU that he's a lot better than the others, that MU will look a lot more favored for his race than it really is.

Kuskinator

United Kingdom43 Posts

August 08 2011 12:18 GMT

#13

On August 08 2011 16:37 zyce wrote:
Individual League Winners and Runner-Ups (48 Events):
First place:
Terran - 18
Protoss - 6
Zerg - 11

Fixed.

The stats do seemed to be stacked towards Terran, but the showmatch between Boxer and Yellow should not really count, and there may be other "events" similar to this which are bound to skew the overall statistics.
As someone else has already stated it might be worth looking through to see the level of competition and number of representatives of each race are in each event to try to weight it perhaps.

bLah.

Croatia497 Posts

August 08 2011 12:39 GMT

#14

Well in korea most players play Terran so it's not surprising that there are more T wins. Also in majority of these tournaments there weren't any of the best players.

But take a look at last couple of weeks, last dreamhack dimaga v mana PvZ, EU blizz yesterday Ret vs Naniwa PvZ, last GSL ZvZ, last mlg TvT

All those stronger tournaments look quite nice really.

train hard go pro don't whine.

EmilA

Denmark4618 Posts

August 08 2011 12:44 GMT

#15

Can you add race participation %'s as well? Without those stats, this tells us absolutely nothing (other than P is fucked.)

firehand101

Australia3152 Posts

August 08 2011 12:47 GMT

#16

Terrans are absolutely ripping it up now. Is it because of their versatility, and sheer number of options?
I think the main reason Terran is an absolute beast is because of Korea. They work so hard there, but the hardest can be said for terran. Protoss, they practice well, and zerg cant really practice many builds at all. but terran builds must be so decisive and well thought out, that many people just concentrate on terran and they are doing really well

Sated

England4983 Posts

August 08 2011 12:50 GMT

#17

--- Nuked ---

naggerNZ

New Zealand708 Posts

August 08 2011 13:04 GMT

#18

Personally, I think it's less due to imbalance, but the fact that there are a lot more skilled Zergs and Terrans than there are Protosses.

If I was to put it down to anything, I would argue that Protoss' mechanics don't encourage the same game sense and knowledge as Zerg's and Terran's.

Fig

United States1324 Posts

August 08 2011 13:05 GMT

#19

The main problem is exactly what Dustin Browder admitted to in his last interview. "Terran is the most complete race." He said they were having trouble finding anything to add to terran in the expansion. By admitting that terrans have more tools and more answers than the other two races right now, there is absolutely NO INCENTIVE to choose a race besides terran if you are planning on playing SC2 competitively for money. Even if he says something like they are looking into giving toss a harass unit in HotS, what toss wants to wait through almost a year of being disadvantaged in every tournament. If Blizzard doesn't want the GSL to be almost all terrans by the time the expansion comes out, some things need to change now.

Shadrak

United States490 Posts

August 08 2011 13:08 GMT

#20

Been noticing lack of P results for a while now. Perhaps they are just too predictable at higher levels. Hopefully HotS will add some more unit diversity that I feel they really need.

And no, I don't play toss but I do think they are at a disadvantage right now. Not in terms of actual power but in terms of number of viable strats which has a more severe effect in competitive play.

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