• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 10:05
CEST 16:05
KST 23:05
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
RSL Season 1 - Final Week5[ASL19] Finals Recap: Standing Tall10HomeStory Cup 27 - Info & Preview18Classic wins Code S Season 2 (2025)16Code S RO4 & Finals Preview: herO, Rogue, Classic, GuMiho0
Community News
Firefly given lifetime ban by ESIC following match-fixing investigation17$25,000 Streamerzone StarCraft Pro Series announced7Weekly Cups (June 30 - July 6): Classic Doubles6[BSL20] Non-Korean Championship 4x BSL + 4x China10Flash Announces Hiatus From ASL70
StarCraft 2
General
RSL Revival patreon money discussion thread TL Team Map Contest #4: Winners Esports World Cup 2025 - Final Player Roster Server Blocker RSL Season 1 - Final Week
Tourneys
RSL: Revival, a new crowdfunded tournament series FEL Cracov 2025 (July 27) - $8000 live event $5,100+ SEL Season 2 Championship (SC: Evo) $25,000 Streamerzone StarCraft Pro Series announced Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament
Strategy
How did i lose this ZvP, whats the proper response Simple Questions Simple Answers
Custom Maps
External Content
Mutation # 481 Fear and Lava Mutation # 480 Moths to the Flame Mutation # 479 Worn Out Welcome Mutation # 478 Instant Karma
Brood War
General
A cwal.gg Extension - Easily keep track of anyone BW General Discussion Script to open stream directly using middle click ASL20 Preliminary Maps BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/
Tourneys
[Megathread] Daily Proleagues Small VOD Thread 2.0 Last Minute Live-Report Thread Resource! [BSL20] Non-Korean Championship 4x BSL + 4x China
Strategy
Simple Questions, Simple Answers I am doing this better than progamers do.
Other Games
General Games
Path of Exile Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread CCLP - Command & Conquer League Project The PlayStation 5 Nintendo Switch Thread
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread Vanilla Mini Mafia
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine Russo-Ukrainian War Thread The Accidental Video Game Porn Archive Stop Killing Games - European Citizens Initiative
Fan Clubs
SKT1 Classic Fan Club! Maru Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! [Manga] One Piece Anime Discussion Thread [\m/] Heavy Metal Thread
Sports
2024 - 2025 Football Thread Formula 1 Discussion NBA General Discussion TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 NHL Playoffs 2024
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
Men Take Risks, Women Win Ga…
TrAiDoS
momentary artworks from des…
tankgirl
from making sc maps to makin…
Husyelt
StarCraft improvement
iopq
Trip to the Zoo
micronesia
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 627 users

Statistical Analysis of StarCraft 2 Balance

Forum Index > SC2 General
Post a Reply
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Next All
d_ijk_stra
Profile Joined March 2011
United States36 Posts
May 05 2011 00:41 GMT
#1
This is my first post on teamliquid

I've written a short article on StarCraft 2 balance!
I hope SC2 geeks especially those have science/engineering background would enjoy it...!

http://arxiv.org/abs/1105.0755

The analysis states that T > P, T > Z, and Z > P while the statistical significance is not very strong. Any feedback would be welcome.

Only recently I've found that there has been other statistical researches/discussions on teamliquid. Sorry for not citing them in this version, and I'm planning to update this article with references in the future.

The difference of this article and previous one is that here I tried to take each gamer's ability into account. That is, oGsMC dominating Terran gamers does not necessarily mean that P >> T, since it could be that actually TvP balance is quite good but MC is just too strong. By taking each gamer's ability into account (using what statisticians call 'latent variable'), I think I resolved this problem.

I hope people enjoy it! :D
My Life for IU!
Barca
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States418 Posts
May 05 2011 00:45 GMT
#2
I have confirmed your results by looking through my match history.
- I hate threads that end with "Thoughts?" -
awesomoecalypse
Profile Joined August 2010
United States2235 Posts
May 05 2011 00:52 GMT
#3
Very interesting that everyone cries about Protoss being too strong, yet not one statistical analysis backs it up in any way. Thanks very much for posting this, and welcome to TL.
He drone drone drone. Me win. - ogsMC
Archas
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States6531 Posts
May 05 2011 00:53 GMT
#4
Nice first post. Even at a glance, this is very interesting stuff. Good work, and welcome to TeamLiquid.
The room is ripe with the stench of bitches!
Malpractice.248
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States734 Posts
May 05 2011 00:54 GMT
#5
Wait, you think Z > P, at all levels, or on average?
At top lvl, its quite a diff story...
Zeke50100
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States2220 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-05-05 01:05:46
May 05 2011 00:56 GMT
#6
A thread with "Statistical Analysis" in the title with an actual statistical analysis within? Impossible!

This is pretty cool to look at. Unfortunately, the field is a bit too dynamic and littered with confounding variables that it's hard to pin-point any valid conclusions, but it does show that overall, there's not much evidence to say there's something horrendously wrong. 55% win rate does not mean imbalanced, contrary to popular belief XD
d_ijk_stra
Profile Joined March 2011
United States36 Posts
May 05 2011 00:58 GMT
#7
I've been keep reading TL articles, not just posting any

Malpractice/ Yes in my experience I feel like P > Z... But the technique I used takes skill of every gamer into account, so I think possible explanation is that low level Protoss players lose a lot to Zergs, while small number of top level Protoss players are dominating Zerg players. You've probably seen gamers like IMLosira easily dominating GSL code A Protoss gamers...
My Life for IU!
HolyArrow
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7116 Posts
May 05 2011 00:59 GMT
#8
This is probably one of the most (if not the most) academically rigorous analyses yet, so it'll be interesting to see how people who think P is imba will spin this... I envision many "you're just too academic and not looking at reality" arguments.
d_ijk_stra
Profile Joined March 2011
United States36 Posts
May 05 2011 01:01 GMT
#9
Zeke50100/ Yes, I strongly agree with you Maybe this kind of analysis is more adequate for stabilized BW, but its balance does not interest me anymore :D

Yes, I've seen too many posts which contains 'statistics' in its title with no real serious statistics in it, so I wanted to do one myself
My Life for IU!
Malpractice.248
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States734 Posts
May 05 2011 01:01 GMT
#10
Well yes, losira was dominating them, but had a harder time vs code S ones, his skill was just code S material :p
dave333
Profile Joined August 2010
United States915 Posts
May 05 2011 01:04 GMT
#11
Very interesting and it is hard to argue against the analysis, but I guess the only hole is still the lack of enough games played to have statistical significance.
setmeal
Profile Joined March 2011
162 Posts
May 05 2011 01:04 GMT
#12
great thread, do keep them coming. I would love to see more of such analysis in the future!
Dommk
Profile Joined May 2010
Australia4865 Posts
May 05 2011 01:09 GMT
#13
That is, oGsMC dominating Terran gamers does not necessarily mean that P >> T, since it could be that actually TvP balance is quite good but MC is just too strong. By taking each gamer's ability into account (using what statisticians call 'latent variable'), I think I resolved this problem.


I think this is what Liquid`Tyler was saying a few months ago, there are enough pro-gamers and play styles right now that we should be focusing on the player and not the race
PopcornColonel
Profile Joined March 2011
United States769 Posts
May 05 2011 01:14 GMT
#14
Lol cool. I'm looking at Cornell.
Zerg delenda est.
mikyaJ
Profile Joined April 2011
1834 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-05-05 01:19:19
May 05 2011 01:14 GMT
#15
On May 05 2011 09:54 Malpractice.248 wrote:
Wait, you think Z > P, at all levels, or on average?
At top lvl, its quite a diff story...

yea, zergs are winning even more:
[image loading]

jk that's only Korea, Zergs are ONLY winning 51% of the games versus Protoss in the foreign scene:
[image loading]
MKP||TSL
JerKy
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Korea (South)3013 Posts
May 05 2011 01:15 GMT
#16
That was a really good read, good work!
You can type "StarCraft" with just your left hand.
professorjoak
Profile Joined July 2008
318 Posts
May 05 2011 01:21 GMT
#17
Data set had only about ~620 nonmirror games in it. It would be interesting to use this methodology on the Brood War TSL Season 1 and 2 full ladder replay packs, which have several times more data in them.

I looked into trying a statistical analysis for TSL Season 1 at one point to see if the distribution of build orders on a map had any correlation with win percent. A first glance at the data showed all matchups on any map where I had 100+ games in that specific map and matchup balanced within 52-48. (Which is different than the Korean results in the TLPD which usually split 60-40 or 55-45, though those are based on far fewer games). However, I then realized the data set had many duplicate games from a game between two top ladder players being counted in each player's replay pack and decided it would be too much trouble to properly sort them out so I quit there and didn't take the analysis much further.
"The different branches of Arithmetic -- Ambition, Distraction, Uglification, and Derision." --Lewis Carroll
JKira
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Canada1002 Posts
May 05 2011 01:28 GMT
#18
Can't seem to open the PDF, but from what I gather the data taken for this analysis are from major tournaments in the first half of April? I ask because it's not in the OP
zeek0us
Profile Joined October 2010
United States67 Posts
May 05 2011 01:32 GMT
#19
LOL SC2 on the arXiv??!?!? Nice. I don't usually peruse the statistics section, but maybe I should.
Mordiford
Profile Joined April 2011
4448 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-05-05 01:35:59
May 05 2011 01:35 GMT
#20
Yeah, I think it's important to note that a sample size under 1000 games may not be very accurate for something like this where variation does occur based on just players performances and all the shit that influences them.

The graphs posted above by mikyaJ I feel are a little more viable, particularly the foreign tournament one, considering that it's based on a fairly large sample size of over 8000 games. Based on that, it would seem as though the game is fairly balanced in terms of win/loss.

The korean sample is much smaller because of the number of tournaments played, it's basically just a representative of the GSL right now, if I'm not mistaken.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Next All
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
FEL
12:00
Cracov 2025: Qualifier #3
IndyStarCraft 555
Liquipedia
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
IndyStarCraft 555
Lowko476
Hui .185
MindelVK 41
StarCraft: Brood War
Jaedong 1122
BeSt 970
Mini 854
EffOrt 750
Light 545
Stork 499
ToSsGirL 431
Larva 367
firebathero 308
PianO 226
[ Show more ]
GuemChi 175
Last 157
Snow 157
soO 113
Movie 77
JulyZerg 72
Mind 62
sorry 55
sSak 51
sas.Sziky 49
Shinee 43
Barracks 41
zelot 30
Noble 13
HiyA 11
Terrorterran 11
yabsab 7
Rock 0
Dota 2
Gorgc7251
qojqva2149
XcaliburYe256
LuMiX2
Counter-Strike
oskar388
chrisJcsgo301
edward59
Heroes of the Storm
Khaldor484
Other Games
tarik_tv29656
gofns8639
FrodaN5263
B2W.Neo1792
singsing1740
crisheroes490
shahzam434
DeMusliM423
Fuzer 350
KnowMe215
SortOf110
ArmadaUGS82
Trikslyr24
Organizations
Other Games
gamesdonequick38107
StarCraft: Brood War
UltimateBattle 2954
lovetv 10
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 14 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• HeavenSC 34
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
• sooper7s
StarCraft: Brood War
• Azhi_Dahaki13
• HerbMon 13
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
League of Legends
• Nemesis4878
Upcoming Events
FEL
1h 55m
Gerald vs PAPI
Spirit vs ArT
CSO Cup
1h 55m
BSL20 Non-Korean Champi…
3h 55m
Bonyth vs QiaoGege
Dewalt vs Fengzi
Hawk vs Zhanhun
Sziky vs Mihu
Mihu vs QiaoGege
Zhanhun vs Sziky
Fengzi vs Hawk
DaveTesta Events
3h 55m
Sparkling Tuna Cup
19h 55m
RSL Revival
19h 55m
Classic vs Clem
FEL
1d
BSL20 Non-Korean Champi…
1d 3h
Bonyth vs Dewalt
QiaoGege vs Dewalt
Hawk vs Bonyth
Sziky vs Fengzi
Mihu vs Zhanhun
QiaoGege vs Zhanhun
Fengzi vs Mihu
Wardi Open
1d 20h
Replay Cast
2 days
[ Show More ]
WardiTV European League
3 days
PiGosaur Monday
3 days
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
4 days
Replay Cast
4 days
The PondCast
4 days
Replay Cast
5 days
Epic.LAN
5 days
CranKy Ducklings
6 days
Epic.LAN
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

KCM Race Survival 2025 Season 2
HSC XXVII
NC Random Cup

Ongoing

JPL Season 2
BSL 2v2 Season 3
Acropolis #3
CSL 17: 2025 SUMMER
Copa Latinoamericana 4
Jiahua Invitational
2025 ACS Season 2: Qualifier
CSLPRO Last Chance 2025
Championship of Russia 2025
RSL Revival: Season 1
Murky Cup #2
BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025
ESL Impact League Season 7
IEM Dallas 2025
PGL Astana 2025
Asian Champions League '25
BLAST Rivals Spring 2025
MESA Nomadic Masters

Upcoming

CSL Xiamen Invitational
CSL Xiamen Invitational: ShowMatche
2025 ACS Season 2
CSLPRO Chat StarLAN 3
K-Championship
uThermal 2v2 Main Event
SEL Season 2 Championship
FEL Cracov 2025
Esports World Cup 2025
Underdog Cup #2
StarSeries Fall 2025
FISSURE Playground #2
BLAST Open Fall 2025
BLAST Open Fall Qual
Esports World Cup 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall Qual
IEM Cologne 2025
FISSURE Playground #1
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2025 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.