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TL Mafia XXXVI
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Ireland4122 Posts
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On January 25 2011 09:04 Mr. Wiggles wrote: He never seemed to be that enthusiastic about pursuing the position besides his one long post on the matter. I'm actually curious about the change of heart too, as he sounded like he was going to really push for the mayorship now, and he had Dr.H throw his support behind him. Is he not running anymore, has he conceded? Or is it simply a matter or politeness? So kav is the only candidate now? Thats a bit weird. | ||
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In adduction, I'd be happy to volunteer as a BG. | ||
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 )As for today, some pretty good analysis coming out which is awesome. Bum pointed this out earlier but it seems to have gone ignored: + Show Spoiler + Clue: Cue the clash of lightning. Play the roar of thunder. And make sure there is a shower of rain. It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening. I should explain. Mr.Zergling's Profile: Favorite Movie scene: Cue, play, movie scene There's no earthly way of knowing Which direction we are going. There's no knowing where we're rowing Or which way the river's flowing. Is it raining? Is it snowing? Is a hurricane a blowing? Thunder, lightning, rain Not a speck of light is showing so the danger must be growing. Are the fires of hell a glowing? Is the grisly reaper mowing? Yes! The danger must be growing Scary Film/Bad Dream For the rowers keep on rowing. And they're certainly not showing any signs that they are slowing! This ticks almost all of the boxes. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On January 21 2011 11:25 Mr.Zergling wrote: By waiting till the game starts lol, I think it will all be explained then On January 22 2011 01:05 Mr.Zergling wrote: woot On January 23 2011 14:54 Mr.Zergling wrote: /confirm Im waiting on my mayor vote till there is more than one candidate lol On January 24 2011 14:46 Mr.Zergling wrote: Still no other mayor candidates? On January 26 2011 12:41 Mr.Zergling wrote: Well, that was certainly a kick off... Really weird not having flipping, I forgot there wasn't and came on just to see if we got a red xD That is every single one of his posts this game. Now, obviously I haven't been very active myself, but it is tough to come into a game 25 pages in. However, I'm pretty sure I've contributed a bit more than he has, and I will be posting more that I have caught up somewhat. In addition you have this as I said earlier: + Show Spoiler + Clue: Cue the clash of lightning. Play the roar of thunder. And make sure there is a shower of rain. It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening. I should explain. Mr.Zergling's Profile: Favorite Movie scene: Cue, play, movie scene There's no earthly way of knowing Which direction we are going. There's no knowing where we're rowing Or which way the river's flowing. Is it raining? Is it snowing? Is a hurricane a blowing? Thunder, lightning, rain Not a speck of light is showing so the danger must be growing. Are the fires of hell a glowing? Is the grisly reaper mowing? Yes! The danger must be growing Scary Film/Bad Dream For the rowers keep on rowing. And they're certainly not showing any signs that they are slowing! Not only that, but this had been pointed out twice before: + Show Spoiler + On January 24 2011 12:53 Kavdragon wrote: A couple of things... The song lyrics are from a song called "Retrace" by anberlin http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anberlin This would fit with the "I'm writting in reverse" theme that was in the night post. From Mr Zerglings's profile + Show Spoiler + Favorite Movie scene: There's no earthly way of knowing Which direction we are going. There's no knowing where we're rowing Or which way the river's flowing. Is it raining? Is it snowing? Is a hurricane a blowing? Not a speck of light is showing so the danger must be growing. Are the fires of hell a glowing? Is the grisly reaper mowing? Yes! The danger must be growing For the rowers keep on rowing. And they're certainly not showing any signs that they are slowing! Nothing huge, but something worth pointing out. + Show Spoiler + On January 26 2011 13:50 bumatlarge wrote: Mr. Zergling + Show Spoiler + Favorite Movie scene: There's no earthly way of knowing Which direction we are going. There's no knowing where we're rowing Or which way the river's flowing. Is it raining? Is it snowing? Is a hurricane a blowing? Not a speck of light is showing so the danger must be growing. Are the fires of hell a glowing? Is the grisly reaper mowing? Yes! The danger must be growing For the rowers keep on rowing. And they're certainly not showing any signs that they are slowing! Kavdragon pointed this out. From a movie, obviously, but it's about a rowboat (life is but a dream  )in some form a of precipitation. Closest I could find relating to a movie. Also he has the poem "The Raven" which is probably a long shot, but "just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening. I should explain." could be something.A lot of people have videos, but none of them are too relevant. After Original Name, this seems fairly strong, and I looked hard, but couldn't find much on this part for anyone else. I don't think Kav really likes me now lol. Here. I gave an idea to determine mayor randomly off the top of my head. You are really gonna drill me for anRNG plan to demonstrate how a mayor would be picked? I knew I would have to extend the time if it was to hold any water, so if you legitimately think I was trying to sway it away from you in that time, I don't know what to say. Hope you are gonna post more then this if you do an analysis. I wasn't there early enough to give my opinion that 2 candidates weren't enough to mean anything, but I stand by that. And yet, he has not responded to it, In fact, both those posts went completely ignored. I find this curious. All the discussion is between the RoL and Nemesis clues, (which are pretty damning as well I admit) but this has been passed by. If he is scum, his buddies are purposely trying to divert attention onto RoL/Nemesis and trying to not draw attention to the clues against him. In summary -Lurker -Significant clue points towards him -Hasn't responded to the clues -Clues have gone ignored by other people as well | ||
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He also voted for kav and then switched to RoL without giving any reasoning behind either votes. Wishy washy voting is usually a decent scumtell. | ||
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On January 31 2011 05:52 CubEdIn wrote: ^ That's true. And the fact that people are not openly defending him also means that he's probably green. There are just too many things that don't mix with him being red. Defending him from what? He's gone completely under the radar while votes have piled on Jackal. | ||
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Day 1: TheAldo + Show Spoiler + On January 23 2011 16:04 TheAldo wrote: /confirm Does it make sense to be focusing on the word/color black just because it was bolded? I've been focusing on the music and the willingness to kill without a trace. I haven't come up with anything yet though. So far I must say Kav seems like he would be a good mayor but I would like to see others run. Indicates support for kav as mayor. He does end up voting for him after switching from Dr. H On January 24 2011 12:43 TheAldo wrote: I'm looking at the weapon here and Nemesis's profile looks like it could be something... It is a week comparison but killing with a blade could be a clue... Small clue analysis against nemesis. Nothing big. On January 26 2011 09:44 TheAldo wrote: Bum you have really started to sound awfully scummy in like the last 5 posts. On January 26 2011 10:35 TheAldo wrote: My first game, I haven't really had much to say but I had to comment on the flip flopping like a fish you were doing. Each day I have given what I thought about clues and yes I have gone through every profile. I'm lurking because I'm taking it all in. Calls out bum Mayoral vote: Dr. H -> kavdragon Thoughts: Only people that might have a reason for killing him are bum + nemesis. Don't feel like theres anything substantial behind it. MeapakZiph + Show Spoiler + On January 23 2011 16:09 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: /Confirm Ok Kav you've definetly got my vote atm :D it's late so I'll look at the clue tomorrow but I've heard what others have said and I like the Qatol reasoning. If Kav gets the clue that'll be a good point in his favor (let's face it, right now he only has a fancy speech and I'd like a mayor with good scumhunting skills). It looks like Bum did some good background research so that does make me feel good about Kav. Speaking of Bum, why do you want to lynch divinek? Even if it was a joke I'd like to hear why you said it. Supports kav On January 24 2011 15:35 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Ok I (and I think a lot of others) am really dissatisfied with the current group of mayor candidates. I'll go through and explain why I don't like each of them. RoL: doesn't give a shit. He said he thinks he's good at scum hunting and a likely mafia night one kill. Ok those sound like good reasons I guess but why has he barely campaigned at all. Last game I played with RoL he worked pretty hard for his election. In that game he had a very take charge mentality while in this game he's been way too laid back. If being mayor mattered so little then why even bother saying you would run. DrH: Similar to RoL he doesn't seem to care that much about getting elected. As aggressive as RoL when he ran DrH was ten times as aggressive and insistent about being elected. Along with his less then enthusiastic campaign, his platform is almost indistinguishable from Kavs. When I'm casting my vote I wanna know why I'm voting DrH not Kav and last time DrH ran I would have known why from the start and been reminded often. Kav: I left him for last because if I was forced to vote right now it would probably be for him. He made his intention to run clear before the start of the game so I'm not as suspicious of his desire to get elected had he only just started his push. However what's stopping me from pulling the lever for him is Kita's concession. He basically ran saying "I'm not Kav" but he conceded to prevent DrH from being elected. If we were two hours before the deadline in a tight race between DrH and Kav I could understand Kita pulling out if he really felt DrH was scummy. But at this point the games barely even begun and kita conceded just after voting began. All of this just seems weird to me, if Kita really didn't want either Kav or DrH he could have voted RoL or campaigned harder for himself. Anyway as I said, like a lot of people I'd like to see another candidate who offered a clear contrast from the current candidates. [g]Can we vote for someone who did not declare candidacy?[/g] Interesting analysis of the 3 mayoral candidates. Connects kav and kita, suggests they might be scumbuddies? Doesn't like any of them but concedes to vote for kav if no better candidate presents On January 24 2011 15:38 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Oh and EBWOP because I'm suspicious of kita doesn't mean I'm also as suspicious of Kav, it just means right now I'm hesitant to vote for him. Clarifies kita/kav thing. On January 25 2011 08:18 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Well I guess Kav is going to win this election. I'd have liked RoL slightly better because if he's town he's a really good scumhunter and he's more experienced but he never really actively pursued being mayor and now he's conceded. Anyway if he's town he'll still scumhunt and own the shit out of mafia so him losing mayorship isn't that big of a deal (just means medics should consider him as a night own prot). Honestly out of all the things that could have happened in the mayor election this isn't even remotely the worst. All aboard the KavWagon :D ![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/4kpZl.jpg) Does a bit of a turnaround, saying he'd prefer RoL strangely enough. On January 25 2011 10:33 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Yeah I'm good with your case against ON Kav, and you just made me feel a lot better about voting for you. However several people have voted for both you and RoL now and failed to give a reason for those votes. I'd like everyone to justify their votes in the thread for later reference. Agrees ON is a good lynch, asks people voting without giving reason to speak up. On January 25 2011 10:47 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I agree that we shouldn't be 100% locked into lynching ON but as Ilovejonn (can I abbreviate to ILJ?) pointed out, ON has done a couple of weakish and scummish defenses of himself. Right now I'm inclined to say he's a SK rather than mafia but either would be a good kill. However I will (and I hope Kav does as well) continue to look around to make sure we have the best fit for the clue. Nothing much here On January 26 2011 03:06 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: If they were "almost" targets wouldn't making them BGs just give them the push to make them "targets"? The last thing we want is for the BGs to be killed night one. That's why picking lurkers is a good idea if we aren't going to have volunteers. As I said before, it forces the mafia into a decision of killing strong or active players versus killing the mayor. I agree Kav, it seems like Amber's strategy merely clumps mafia targets and makes it easier to kill people who matter. Does't like amber's strat for picking BGs. Thinks lurkers would be a good idea. Mayoral vote: kavdragon Thoughts: Don't really know who would want to kill him honestly. He didn't accuse or suspect anyone to any extent. Possibly mafia wanting to take down a relatively experienced player that probably wouldn't have medic protection? Sinquity (claimed) + Show Spoiler + On January 23 2011 11:48 SiNiquity wrote: I think Kitaman may be right about the blood / alignment relationship. Note that both LSB and Node are bolded, indicative of their neutral alignments. Perhaps this liquid will come to play a role later - anyone who drinks it, upon death, will have their alignment revealed (the potion was never the direct cause of death). The problem here then is Node claimed the liquid was a monster. An alignment revealing potion doesn't seem so monstrous... I Mayoral vote: Kavdragon Day 2 lynch: Coagulation Thoughts: Day 2: d3 + Show Spoiler + On January 25 2011 09:11 d3_crescentia wrote: I'd vote for RoL if he didn't seem so lazy. Some good insight on the mayor role. I don't have a strong opinion of Kavdragon just yet, as his playstyle generally looks town. For the most part we need to ignore clues and focus on the people themselves. @darmousseh all those situations lead into a bunch of WIFOM. I'll be watching you for better posts. Calls out darmousseh somewhat. On January 29 2011 11:52 d3_crescentia wrote: Ugh. I've been sick for the past few days. Food poisoning I think. How much time do we have? I bought the case on Nemesis a few pages back so I'll be voting him. At any rate I'll vote to stay in so town doesn't get dicked over too hard but if you guys can find another sub I'm totally willing to step out. Votes for nemesis. On January 29 2011 21:27 d3_crescentia wrote: Thanks for the analysis LD. I really hope you read the other post where I said I've been SICK with some sort of bizarre disease that causes BLOOD to erupt from my BODILY ORIFICES, but I guess I left that detail out so as to not subject yourselves to the uncomfortable facts of my life. Skipping that - the RoL vote. I'm convinced he was town, but unfortunately we have no way to confirm that with 3 modkills. I'm willing to bet that the mafia are going to be likely to stick around for at least the first vote before dying to activity requirements. The people that immediately come under suspicion on that list are Beneather, kitaman27, Eti307. Not sure if I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Darmousseh right now either considering I think he has weak posting. I also happen to think that if we shoot Nemesis we should be able to start figuring things out on HIS vote list as well after night census. At this point in time we need as much information as we can get. Gets a bit pissed off at LD. Conviced RoL was town. Lists off a few people as suspicious, Beneather, kitaman27, Eti307, Darmousseh. Wants Nemesis dead from vig hit. On January 30 2011 07:37 d3_crescentia wrote: I find it ridiculous that you don't take my illness seriously. I find it ridiculous that I can't call people out for weak posting, but I guess if you want to lynch me/shoot me for weak posting you can actually then look at the people that actually didn't say jack about their votes at ALL after the census turns out, instead of one-liners like me. Given that your reads are usually incorrect, I'd say the probability that you're red is low, but not low enough for me to discount you. WHY lynch RoL when he was likely town and the strongest player we have? Then again that's been the most ridiculous pattern of towns in general - lynch RoL, find out he's town and then get fucked in the ass. When he hasn't been town he's generally been less lazy, but whatever - this isn't about him. Speaking of patterns - it's been town pattern to let the other dude off after Day 1 lynch and not pay attention to him until late game again. Happened with brocket last game; would've happened with Annul on Day 2 if there was no extended day. If we can see what he's doing you'll notice that he's hasn't said anything since he dodged the lynch. That's my concern now - he'll disappear now that he's no longer in danger. If Nemesis dies, census is taken to check his alignment -> we start looking at his vote list. The only bad thing about this plan is wasting a vig shot on someone that should be dead anyway. Fact is that even when no one stepped up to actively defend him we ACTUALLY have bunch of dumb soft defends by GMarshal (who even said after some point "no one's defending him" and switched his vote to zergling) IF YOU HAVEN'T BEEN PAYING ATTENTION TO THE THREAD. Soft defends are treacherous territory at any rate, so it doesn't really say anything about anyone... yet. But whatever. As for Ace/Ver - they basically confirmed that I made the right play as mafia last game, regardless of however disgusting I felt about doing so. It's lame when town kills itself out of inactivity, so if you think I'm inactive and worth a bullet then KILL me NOW. Interesting point here, and I feel it has happened. Nemesis has completely slipped under the radar. Points out GMarshal soft defended Nemesis. Mayoral vote: RebirthOfLegenD Day 2 lynch: Nemesis Thoughts: Wow, a lot of people wouldn't mind him dead imo, Nemesis being top of the list. Darmousseh was another name that came up a bit. Beneather, kitaman27, Eti307, LD and GMarshal to a much lesser extent. Gmarshal (claimed) + Show Spoiler + Mayoral vote: RebirthOfLeGenD Day 2 lynch: Coagulation -> Nemesis -> Mr. Zergling Thoughts: Is bodyguard | ||
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On January 31 2011 08:51 LSB wrote: Do not speculate on the activity of the SK, it will get you nowhere So there is exactly one SK and he is alive? | ||
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Beneather + Show Spoiler + He looked up and saw a masked man with a blood-spattered black apron tied around his waist. The man masterfully handled his instruments, hands moving at a blur, flashes of steel rising and falling, leaving perfectly sized morsels behind. He lifted a finger to his mouth and sucked. We had a new two new kinds of meat tonight. The flesh tastes like pork, a little bit more bitter, stronger. It tastes quite good. Human meat The second meat was really fatty and greasy, so the meat kind of breaks up in your mouth Dog meat And then we realized that this wasn't any ordinary meat. We never found the chef afterwards. Nor did we find d3_crescentia. Now lets take a look: Picture: Masked man. Human meat + Dog meat. ![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/63932.jpg?1295751181) Quote: They say practice makes perfect, and then they say nobody is perfect where is the sense in that? | ||
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Looking back at d3's list of suspects: Nemesis Darmousseh Beneather kitaman27 Eti307 LunarDestiny GMarshal Of these I think Nemesis and Beneather are certain mafia. Lunar is high up on the list as well, he completely ingored beneather as a possibility for the dog meat clue and tunnelled me instead. Probably trying to divert attention from beneather. Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him. My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum. | ||
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On February 01 2011 03:06 Nemesis wrote: You have some nice WIFOM there as your argument. Not a whole lot of reason to take out d3 other than he pointed scum? No one was even following d3's list at the time, and I doubt they anyone would follow it with how inactive he has been. Can't think of any other reason why mafia would kill d3? How about doing what you are doing now and framing the people he suspected? -In what way is that WIFOM? Its a pretty good idea to kill off someone who suspects your entire team. Obviously theres no proof of that being the reason he was killed, but its a good theory imo. On the other hand, your argument is WIFOM. -Nice chainsaw defense of beneather, I like how you completely ignored all the clues against him. | ||
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On February 01 2011 03:21 Nemesis wrote: I wasn't defending beneather, I was attacking your bad logic, and as I said before I don't care too much about clues. Yes, I know what I said is WIFOM, but what you said is also WIFOM, and I am pointing that out to you. I have just showed you how it is WIFOM by creating a probable scenario which contradicts your WIFOM situation. I am not going to let you bait me into an argument over WIFOM as I'm sure you would like to divert attention from important matters once again. I will however clarify my logic: -I feel that the clues point quite clearly towards beneather being the scum that killed d3. It is also much more likely that it was a mafia kill rather than an SK kill. -As d3 had already pointed out suspicions towards beneather, amongst others, this would be a good motive for the kill. OBVIOUSLY only the killer (or his team) knows the exact reasoning behind making a kill, however it does no harm to speculate especially on an unexpected kill. -I know that all the times I've been mafia, I've always tried to kill people who get too close to working out who we are. You can see I was thinking about this early when I looked over at who had been killed so far. This was before I suspected Beneather at all. Finally, lets take a look at the people who lynched RoL and saved Nemesis on day 2: bumatlarge LunarDestiny Nemesis darmousseh Beneather kitaman27 Eti307 kavdragon (switched) Notice any similarities? | ||
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I don't want to kill the mayor. I suspect him somewhat but not enough to want him dead for nothing. However if he dies during the night that gives us TWO confirmed scum. I'd be happy even going one for one, two for one is amazing. Unless a/the vig has someone better to shoot, then go for it. Worst case scenario is that the mayor doesn't die. Out of curiosity: Do scum bodyguards protect scum mayor? | ||
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