TL Mafia XVIII

On February 15 2010 15:55 Vivi57 wrote:
ok, I've been (slowly) raeding through the thread and it keeps growing faster than I'm reading.

One thing I've realized is that clues are going to be MUCH more important than in other games and behavioral analysis much less useful. Behavioral analysis is based on the idea that townies will spend their time looking for mafia and that mafia will attempt to fake that, but will not actually be looking. In this game, that doesn't work at all because *everyone* is hunting mafia whether they're mafia or townie.

On February 16 2010 17:14 Vivi57 wrote:
ok, ver sent me this pm and I was going to send it back to him, but since I haven't done much yet, I'll just post it here

tl;dr: Ace and bc are in the same family with redtooth as a likely third member

ok, this whole post is going to be what I think as I read the every post of bc and ace's. Honestly, the reason I haven't been posting much is because the thread's been growing way too fast and I've been playing more poker and putting less time into mafia.

I completely agree with bc as head of one mafia family. You pointed out his mayor post, but he also mentioned that he won't touch clues till day 3 under the premise that there's no point, just what he did in the game where he was traitor.

bc is also defending ace so it might be possible they're on the same team. then he says he can't make a plan because it'll be hard to come up with, easy to stop. either he's a lazy townie or mafia.

yep, even more mafia. He basically uses the defense that his team wouldn't give him gf in the exact position where he *would* want to get gf.

the next bit of posts are pretty bad, he's putting a ton of effort into stopping discussion and basically telling everyone that their methods are bad rather than actually trying to hunt mafia.

more DONT LYNCH ACE! ...but emp is a good lead!

the he posts some forced day1 clue analysis after he spends a *long* time saying that analysis should be worthless and ignored.

Combine that with something he said in msn to me: "I wish I was special " and you have a great case against bc.



now on to ace. Alot of the stuff ace said, I just kinda skimmed over the first time and ignored because all he does is scream. Let's see what a more careful analysis has to offer:

starts off with a couple OMGUS posts, standard. Then he spends a bunch of time saying how clues are useless. I agree, behavior *is* more important than clues.

Although, Ace is putting so much effort into convincing everyone that the clues don't point that it definitely makes him suspect.

His strategy seems to be "lynch anyone who really wants to kill me" which while amusing doesn't do much of anything. Then he goes off about one of his million policy lynches, this time "lynch anyone who starts a wagon that ends in townie blood."

Ace makes a subtle defense of redtooth, the only player besides himself he's defended the entire game.

CLAIMS GREEN

even after that, ace and redtooth keep mentioning each other. There's a very interesting dynamic going on between them and especially when you see redtooth post "Ace and I can't both be mafia." At this point, I'm fairly sure ace and redtooth are in the same mafia family.

then we have some voteswitching so that ace can have the election exactly the way he wants, oddly enough putting L into pardoner.

I haven't seen ace do anything useful on day1 other than telling everyone they suck and repeating that he's town over and over.



I do agree with the theory that ace and redtooth are mafia together, but I'm not the least bit convinced that bc and ace would be heads of opposite mafia families. I'm sure bc is head of one, but ace and bc are either in the same family or ace actually *is* innocent.

The most interesting here is that bc spent a while defending ace, but ace didn't even mention bc ONCE. I'm going to go with bc and ace in the same family with redtooth as a likely third member.

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Original Message:
So it doesn't take a genius to see that you are hiding something this game. Now just what is it?

Currently my analysis of the situation looks like the mafia have BC and Ace as the head of two families. What do you think of this?

I'm expecting a certain type of response from you. Don't let me down

On February 17 2010 06:41 Vivi57 wrote:
noone would kill a confirmed medic, claiming medic is just a risk because the other family might think the "medic" is mafia trying to claim.

A legit medic wouldn't be hit because from the mafia's point of view, any hit that's not on the other family is a miss.