Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Since hardly anyone is posting their thoughts (yes Chez, that includes you), I have taken the time to do some analysis. At this point I would like to call out ~Opz~ as mafia.
Yes, ~Opz~ is mafia.
Let's begin the analysis, starting here:
On February 16 2010 05:10 Caller wrote: People with wise things to say Zato-1, Redtooth (just a lil') Foolishness (especially the part about people spamming shit),~Opz~ I think ~Opz~ always has valid points. I remember when I was running Red Army Mafia that he nailed a lot of people on clues, even if nobody listened to anything he had to say.
everyone else seems to be talking random shit if you ask me ~~~
Here, Caller (let's not forget he is sumiyoshi) calls out ~Opz~ as someone who we should pay attention to because he always has valid points. He also goes on to say that ~Opz~ has good clue analysis. I will pick out a few of ~Opz~ posts from BEFORE Caller made this post:
On February 15 2010 00:13 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 13:44 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Ver has been the most sensible so far imo
His accusation of bloodycobbler is based on a change in bc's posting strategy and not the loose and broad clues from Day 1. He's advocating keeping the clues in mind until they become effective later in the game: a reasonable assertion.
I also think we should be using these clues to profile the mafia, rather than starting analytical arguments/trying to accuse anyone already. It seems a bit suspicious that L is already trying to paint Ace red based on the clues when all of the experienced players are saying that using day 1 clues to lynch/accuse is just stupid. Well, L did have a point Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 13:46 L wrote:
Which brings me to another point; With 20 mafia, how often do you think we'll be revisiting the same characters? Incog can't exactly include every mafia member in each day post if it's three spread to each family, then it would take 4 day posts just to show each member with 1 kill... Show nested quote +
Ace's posting style is a bit arrogant and aggressive for my tastes and I disagree that clues are essentially useless, but his point is fair. Clues, if anything, should be a helping point for our DT's and something used in the late-game
The Red army game I voted like every lynch I could to lynch Ace....Then when I got tired and blew myself up. Ace just has a very abrasive posting style... In that earlier L vs Ace argument, it's easy to put both their sides in perspective. L supports clue analysis, Ace supports behavioral analysis. Goes very good with his piss-you-off personality. Personally, I feel it may be weak to lynch Ace off the bat. Dr. H is who I'm looking at...Him and Chezinu flooding the thread.
On February 15 2010 11:29 ~OpZ~ wrote: L and Ace do this every game, it's best just to ignore them both until L starts clue analysis. That's when you pay attention to L. We all just bandwagon with Ace. They are only good when they agree. L just doesn't have the same support as Ace for some reason... In both examples, we do not see any of the illustrious clue analysis ~Opz~ is apparently praised for. All he does is talk about the arguments between Ace and L. In fact, he hasn't made a single useful post at this point contradictory to what caller said.
~Opz~ next appears on Ver's inactive list. After that, we get some of ~Opz~ clue analysis:
On February 18 2010 03:58 ~OpZ~ wrote: I give you Xelin
vs. Abomination
Seem pretty similar in my opinion. Xelin's big green guy seems like he could do some damage, like cause big holes, or, (same clue set) jump off roofs, and rip people's heads off....
Not to mention Xelin hasn't said much, not that I have either, but I been a little busy, plus I wanted to wait til day 2...
On February 18 2010 04:34 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2010 04:22 SugiuraMidori wrote: It is quite apparent, at least to me, that those few on the bottom with little posts, coincide a bunch with many of the people that the town has called out on.
Shikyo... Phrujbaz..
I am suspicious a bit of foolish, but then.. I always am, I'm just not as open about it like L and Ace are with each other.
We also observe there is an obvious gap from L to meeple. So either the top four are trying to stand out enough to not get suspected of the usual mafia inactivity, or are generally concerned townies that want to help more than anyone else in town? That in itself seems suspicious to me.
Also, how many people have been suspected from scamp down, the other slight break in post counts?
Scamp, Vivi57, Abenson, etc.
P.S. You're welcome, Lucas. Well, Shikyo's obsession with metal + the inscription on the handle of the pike? I mean, maybe that just arises from my ignorant view of most metal...
And thus we have the clue analysis which doesn't mean anything (unless you think Xelin might be mafia, which is a possiblity). ~Opz~ had yet to made a contribution to the game, and then when he was called out by Ver and his mafia buddy Caller, proceeded to do some half ass analysis to float under the radar.
Finally, he actually gives the town some somewhat useful analysis:
On February 21 2010 01:44 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +The rain poured down steadily as darkness fell over the town. Inside an old shack in a deserted part of the town, 789 was content relaxing in the quiet of his bedroom. He could hear the light rain on the top of the roof, but was jolted out of his trance when he heard some panting, a few grunts, and then a loud crash upstairs. 789’s mind raced for a moment, but he was interrupted as the whole second floor of the shack came crashing down from the weight of the water and sewage above, ending his life.
Change of rain? Old shack, but it's two story and the whole floor comes down? Panting, grunting, loud crash. This part made me think of Xelin, but not the rest. Mafia can bring down a whole floor using water and sewage? It happens rather quickly. For obvious Drainage and Sewage. Given how obvious clues have seemed. The cat obviously knocked over something. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=ScampShow nested quote + SugiuraMidori smiled, thinking about the murders that would happen tonight. But it was cold tonight, and she decided to watch the murders from her apartment instead of watching from the tower in the middle of the town. As she turned around, she noticed the light in the background floating slowly to her location. At first she thought the light to be an omen of success, but she was suddenly shocked as the charming light sped up and pierced her skin. She felt a burning sensation, followed by more attacks from the light. A few moments later, SugiuraMidori died as her heart was overloaded from shock.
It was raining earlier... Background light coming at her. Slowly. Floating, Radiant. The light was percieved as an Omen. It was charming. Also able to pierce skin. Laser? Fine pointed. Burned. The light is powerful. Given the rest of the blatanly obvious clues...Hi Shockey? (I keep championing his death, but I'd be wary of this.) Show nested quote + nemY was sitting on his second story balcony, when he saw a dark shape flying in his direction. At first, he thought it was probably a hawk hunting at night, but as the figure converged on his location, nemY noticed that the creature was much larger than he had anticipated. Panicked, he ran inside his house and closed his eyes. But nemY was not safe, and a large boulder crashed through the roof and landed a few feet away from him. He saw the figure screech as it flew overhead, blocking out the moonlight from entering the large hole now in nemY's roof. nemY breathed a sigh of relief, yet was shocked at the damage done to his house. He frantically tried to clean up the mess, fearful that the rest of the roof would cave in. But the attacker returned, dropping another rock through the roof. nemY’s life ended as he flew like a rag doll from the impact of the boulder into the splintered end of a roof beam on the other side of his house.
The hawklike creature was large, dark, and scary. Nemy closed his eyes. Mafia can drop boulders. Screeches. Nemy thought he was safe, this probably isn't important, I just like the false sense of security. =P Flew accross the house with the impact, so it was very hard. I mean, I don't think a boulder would make you bounce, but he hit the roof beam. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=ohNFor his quote. Mentions the sky, hiding, dropping. Show nested quote + At a fork in the road, one of the men took a left turn which meandered down near the river. The old shack at the end of the road looked deserted, but the man was not disturbed. He snuck closely through the shadows, making sure to blend in with the dark river behind him. The shack seemed abandoned, but the man heard some quiet singing emanating from the shack. As he approached the shack, he noticed an emaciated and pale man inside. The Mafioso didn’t feel especially playful tonight, and decided to simply get the job done. He ripped down the thin wall of the shack closest to the river, and lunged at his victim. Shikyo did not move a muscle as a dull fork flew toward his face and plunged into his left temple. However, the killer was shocked to see two bombs explode in the field nearby, and warily began to sneak away from the crime scene as the debris crunched below his feet. When he was but fifty yards away, he heard a large tree fall overhead, smashing the Shikyo’s shack to pieces and turning Shikyo to pulp.
Leisurely. Comfortable. Sneaky, Hides to blend in with the river. He heard singing? (maybe this one is oHn? Who's the pic in Redtooth's profile? Madnessmen to.) ohn's music is trance. Pale man. Too the point. Wtf, ripping walls open again? Near the river side. Where'd the fork come from? Fork, It's dull? He's heavy. Crunching debris. How'd the tree fall? Was it planned? I dunno....Gotta be at work in 18 minutes. I'll come back to do the rest later. I get off in 8 hours though, 12 - 8.
Typical mafia plan. Come in when people are talking about you, make a few posts, disappear again (let's also note that he was already saying things previously mentioned, he didn't bring up any new points). It's also worth to note that this post came after he makes his analysis:
On February 21 2010 03:20 Caller wrote: ~Opz always has good clue analysis. This is something that people should really, really pay attention too -_-
I find it interesting that Caller keeps saying ~Opz~ has good clue analysis, even BEFORE ~Opz~ has even done any the entire game. Knowing Caller and his fanatics he pulls during games, it seems reasonable to assume this is Caller backing up his mafia buddy. When Caller makes his list where he labels all the remaining people, ~Opz~ appears green. No surprise there.
The next point, many many people have called out ~Opz~ as mafia, and these many many people are all dead innocents (this list includes Ver and iaaan and Fishball). Typical mafia plan is to kill people who are suspicious of you. This can be seen in the recent game hosted by Qatol and Ver. Pyrry was mafia, first day Caller and myself both called him out as mafia, and the two of us died first night.
Outside of that ~Opz~ has flown under the radar. In fact, many people who make a list of every person and labels them has left ~Opz~ out (seemingly because they forgot he was in the game. By comparison, these lists usually do not include tredmasta as well). These lists are made from people such as L, Ver, Sugiura, Caller, etc.
The last point, which is where the hard evidence stacks up, is that ~Opz~ has always voted for an innocent to by lynched, with the exception of QS. QS was getting bandwagoned so hard, it's very likely his entire team was voting for him, because nothing could save him since he got rolechecked. Since then, ~Opz~ has always voted for innocents up to and including: redtooth, nemY, iaaan, amber[light].
To summarize, ~Opz~ has had inconsistent posts in the thread. Nearly all his posts have been useless; he has never contributed to the town's effort. He has suspiciously had the support of Caller all game long (even before he was posting much). On top of that, he only comes in to post when called out, or to say a sentence or two then disappear. Lastly, he has been voting as if he were mafia.
LYNCH ~OPZ~
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