EPTi have no idea who to believe at this point and the fact that Kav is so passive about this makes everything seem very... wrong.
TL Mafia XXXVI - Page 84
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
i have no idea who to believe at this point and the fact that Kav is so passive about this makes everything seem very... wrong. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
On February 02 2011 16:24 Coagulation wrote: what a clusterfuck. i have no idea who to believe at this point and the fact that Kav is so passive about this makes everything seem very... wrong. I agree. I think town's best interest is to spend more time trying to figure out clues than argue in this giant mess. 3 kills means at least clues pointing towards 2 people (unless we have 2 SK's somehow). Let's start getting those clues down. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
On February 02 2011 11:25 LSB wrote: Day 4 ![[image loading]](http://ciaran-walsh.com/images/Kosinski/H3/halo_1.jpg) Harmlessly passing your time in the grassland away; And laughing and singing the masked man ran along And laughing and singing he shot Kitaman And laughing and singing he ran along Only dimly aware of a certain unease in the air. There is only so far that I am willing to plunge. There is one place on this god-forsaken island. One place that I refuse to go. It is the caves. Those lightless caverns. I’ve tried avoiding it. But one night I heard screams, echoing off each other in that dark expanse and making their contorted way into the night. I made my way into the caves, and saw all that I needed to see. On the edge of the light, ilovejonn’s body sprawled on the floor. A beast hunched over him, an alien form that I had never seen before. “I’m sorry. I do this for the greater good,” it growled, and then the ground cracked open under it, and it disappeared. You'd better watch out! I immediately headed back to the camp in order to find help. I grabbed the first person I saw, Deconduo and asked him to help me remove ilovejohn’s body. Deconduo didn’t help me. As soon as he realized that I wanted him to go inside, he fled. He didn’t get two steps before I killed him. Serves him right. There may be dogs about Kitaman27 is dead. ilovejonn is dead. deconduo is dead. Day 4 has begun! Time to lynch! Will the sheeple break out of their pen? We shall see! [spoiler] Something of interest. The last line in the song in the post is I've looked over Jordan, and I have seen things are not what they seem. I have no idea what it means, but it scares me into thinking we've got something completely backwards. | ||
bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
WHY DO YOU THINK I WENT BONKERS BEFORE KAV WAS VOTED IN. I can't even tell if that is something you came up with as a mafia question or whether that statement is completely genuine. It blows my mind that we are in the same game. Sorry dude. It blows my mind. It's bed time for bonzo here. I like your clues on BB Lunar! Good find! Yay go team! | ||
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
On February 02 2011 16:38 bumatlarge wrote: Sigh, I can expect this from lunar, suggesting WIFOM as an argument, ok that's understanable as someone trying to survive. But Dar? You didn't know mayor can't be checked? Are you serious? WHY DO YOU THINK I WENT BONKERS BEFORE KAV WAS VOTED IN. I can't even tell if that is something you came up with as a mafia question or whether that statement is completely genuine. It blows my mind that we are in the same game. Sorry dude. It blows my mind. It's bed time for bonzo here. I like your clues on BB Lunar! Good find! Yay go team! I seriously had no idea it wouldn't return his alignment. That's pretty screwed up. This is my first game of mafia online ever and I didn't read that part at the end. I had to go check like 10 minutes ago cause I didn't believe it when node said it. My mind is also exploding right now. The clues on BB are really good. I'm going to check the other days to see if anything else matches up. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
Here are some possible additional clues Day 1: Is that shadow in the corner a black cat? Kinda obvious, probably a little too obviousDay 2: The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make. Cat's make the most terrible sounds especially if they are crazy.Day 3: This was about eating human flesh something which a bear would definitely do. Day 4: Other than the laughing and singing reference You'd better watch out! Cat's are afraid of dogs.There may be dogs about Is there anyone else that has a lot of cat references in the profile? That's all I got for now, it's bedtime. | ||
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
If I was a describing a bear chasing down someone I might describe it like this And there in the clearing, in the moonlight, Meapak_Ziph runs at full speed, jumping over roots, snapping aside branches. And close behind him a black shape, only a blur in the darkness, gaining, about to grab, only a hand-length away... And then the flash of steel from real guns Meapak_Ziph falls with a grunt to the ground, his face contorts in surprise, horror, and pain, and then... silence. Everything is still but for the fountain of black blood sprouting from his body. The whole flash of steel thing from real guns confuses me though, but it might be a clue mixed in. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
LSB was right. You all really are sheeple. | ||
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
On February 02 2011 17:05 darmousseh wrote: One last clue from Day 2 If I was a describing a bear chasing down someone I might describe it like this The whole flash of steel thing from real guns confuses me though, but it might be a clue mixed in. Real GUNS?? As opposed to what? A Fake Gun? Perhaps a CAT BEING HELD AS A GUN? | ||
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
sorry its a dog being held as a gun. even better. its so clear hes scum at this point. | ||
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
On February 02 2011 17:25 BrownBear wrote: So a guy is called out by someone who has claimed detective and rolechecked tem (which should be taken extremely seriously). Then he's like "LOL, LOOK, CLUES" and all of the sudden you all are like "wow, dude, great job! You're useful, we should ignore you and your obvious scumtitude and talk about these clues!" LSB was right. You all really are sheeple. 0 contribution | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
On February 02 2011 12:08 bumatlarge wrote: Well, before things get out of hand, hold this open can of worms for me. I am a detective Night 1: kitaman27 is Medic Night 2: Beneather is Vanilla Town Night 3: LunarDestiny is [black]Serial Killer[/black] Shouldn't Beneather have returned Townie Bodyguard as allignment? It seems very convenient that you check kitaman who died tonight, and Beneather who is suspected scum. In any case either Lunar or bum is lying, so we got atleast 1 guranteed lynch. Can we afford to mislynch today? | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On February 02 2011 17:33 Barundar wrote: Shouldn't Beneather have returned Townie Bodyguard as allignment? It seems very convenient that you check kitaman who died tonight, and Beneather who is suspected scum. In any case either Lunar or bum is lying, so we got atleast 1 guranteed lynch. Can we afford to mislynch today? Yeah its actually Townie Bodyguard in blue. LYLO is a few days away, I think day 6 if its 3 hits a night and we don't lynch a mafia. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
There are 4 options: 1) LunarD = town, Bum = DT 2) LunarD = town, Bum = mafia 3) LunarD = SK, Bum = DT 4) LunarD = SK, Bum = mafia Option 1 can be discarded straight away. Bum would have no reason to lie about LunarD Option 2 can pretty much be discarded. It wouldn’t pay off for a mafia to expose himself to kill a townie when there is still a bit to go before lylo. The real SK would still be about, and would know for sure Bum is mafia, free to kill during the night. If Bum is town, he has no reason to lie about Lunar, if Bum is mafia, it doesn’t pay off for him. It seems pretty certain that LunarD is in fact the SK. Obvious choice today: Lynch LunarD, if he doesn’t help us kill off mafia. No amount of clue analysis makes up for a lose KP. Any comments LunarD? So what’s left is to decide between option 3 and option 4. This close to lylo it would make sense for a mafia to expose himself to kill off their main rival, the SK. There was no way town would lynch LunarD otherwise. A fake DT claim could fix this, and could possibly be used to direct town to another mislynch afterwards, making it a pretty good trade. I have a few ideas on how we can confirm Bum, but first I’ll have to go through his posts. | ||
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Divinek
Canada4045 Posts
On February 02 2011 14:14 GMarshal wrote: I'm going to throw this out there, since this a clue based analysis game, its quite possible that there are no dts much like in the minimafia game, All of these roles will appear in this game in some capacity, and there will be no roles that aren't on this list. I think that means there has to be at least one of each role in the game. The in some capacity thing confuses me, but im pretty sure all of the roles have to appear. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
Let's start by assuming Kav is not mafia (could be sk, but not mafia). If he is mafia then the whole census thing is screwed and we can just roll the dice when killing people. So let's remove that variable for now. I freaking -TOLD YOU- that Nemesis was not scum. It was impossible, but you guys would not listen. That post he made when it was past lynch time in day 2 was super-town. But you bastards decided to kill him anyway. I am raging. Now, about the bumatlarge situation, it's really FKING simple. (also wtf Kav @ saying we should lynch possible DT? you bonkers?) Here are the options: 1) bumatlarge is SCUM Let's start with this one because it's most fun. Why would scum push for someone to get lynched instead of using KPs on him? Well let's see, maybe they tried to hit him or role-block him and it didn't work. Not sure if they would get notified by this, but either way, that's the only possible reason. Which would mean that LD is indeed SK, and Mafia found him. We should KILL the SK as it clearly didn't help the town thus far, and if we let him live he will most likely get revenge on whoever he is pissed at *cough* bum *cough*. Please see PYP mafia that just ended where town kept presumed SK alive, see how good that did us. Now, in order to check bum, we only need one DT to check bumatlarge and Beneather. If they flip DT/vanilla, then we are a-ok!, if not, then we have cought TWO mafias at once. AND the SK. This is like, awesomest scenario ever. 2. bumatlarge is DT Then he is right about SK. He will help the town further on. There is no reasonable scenario where LD is not SK. Really. It's a really dumb move my mafia to stick out their head like that if Lunar is just a townie they want dead. We will find out instantly during the night when the KP doesn't drop. Plus, nobody has claimed RB yet, that can mean that: a) mafia didn't use it to make lunar seem even more like an SK b) mafia used it on lunar and he's not claiming because it would prove he is SK c) mafia used it on someone else who's being a newb and not claiming. Also, if any of the other DTs found stuff that is contradicting what bumatlarge is saying, say something. We'll have 2 mafias to lynch because of that, and you can get protection, assuming that you can prove your posts. Think well before claiming though. Do so only if it helps the town. So, let's draw the line and think of options: 1. We lynch LunarD: KP drops by one, we check for scum, and possibly have two more in the future 2. We lynch bumatlarge: SK is still alive, and we lose one DT. That's just DANDY. We hope that SK has more success in killing reds, even though statistically, he will do more bad than good until the number of town/mafia get to the same values. And we obviously have to kill one of these two tonight, so don't go off bandwagoning on some dumb wild goose chase. | ||
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Divinek
Canada4045 Posts
On February 02 2011 15:32 Kavdragon wrote: Right now that's what makes logical sense to me. I'm not totally set in my thinking, explain to me why it would be better? Where is my logic wrong? People are saying that it's scummy play, but from what I've seen this would be pretty standard, right? Here: let me break down my logic: Player A accuses Player B of being scum through DT check. This is a simple trade. 1-1. Lynch one to figure out if one is lying. Normal play, right? Now, who do you lynch? The person who is LESS valuable to the town. (This is the same logic that they used when a DT accused Ace in mafia III) I hope this is pretty clear to this point. Please, If you have a problem with this logic let me know. It's fairly common town play from what I understand. Now the tricky part with this specific case is deciding who is more valuable. Lunar, or Bum. I make the case that Lunar is the more valuable player. He has been more actively involved with the town in both clue, and behavioral analysis than Bum has been. Now, you might say that Bum is a DT, therefore he is more helpful than LD. I disagree here, because he will VERY likely be dead tomorrow. (If he's telling the truth, we lost a medic already, so stacking hits will kill him unless this game has three Medics, and I don't think that's likely). The mafia will try to push for my lynch, so I'm trying to be as open as I can about what I say. Please point out what is wrong with my reasoning, and don't just dismiss it because it involves lynching a potential DT. mmmm i think a DT's value goes up a little bit in a non flip game. Im really confused why you're trying to defend a checked SK over a DT. Sure an sk can help town out, but at this point he has been identified, he has no more need to help town because he will surely die. Well that's not true he could some how not die if town listens to retarded suggestions like keeping him alive. Your reasoning really has started to sway to making less sense, and it is of course entirely possible that you could be mafia. I don't care overly much to entertain the idea one way or another, but I am very convinced that lunar is actually the SK and that he needs to die. It just makes sense from many past sk's that ive seen, so pro town you couldnt possibly think they're not. Why would anyone else possibly finger him? Sure bum could be mafia, but even if bum was I still think lunar would be SK regardless because a mafia coming out like this would still be fairly sure of an SK. But I think it's much much more likely that bum really is a DT and lunar is almost certainly an SK. If you are scum, and you do a census tonight you could simply lie to us about the SK number and then we end up lynching our DT the next day. etc etc | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
On February 02 2011 18:50 CubEdIn wrote: Ok, NEWBIES, time for Cube to post. Let's start by assuming Kav is not mafia (could be sk, but not mafia). If he is mafia then the whole census thing is screwed and we can just roll the dice when killing people. So let's remove that variable for now. I freaking -TOLD YOU- that Nemesis was not scum. It was impossible, but you guys would not listen. That post he made when it was past lynch time in day 2 was super-town. But you bastards decided to kill him anyway. I am raging. Now, about the bumatlarge situation, it's really FKING simple. (also wtf Kav @ saying we should lynch possible DT? you bonkers?) Here are the options: 1) bumatlarge is SCUM Let's start with this one because it's most fun. Why would scum push for someone to get lynched instead of using KPs on him? Well let's see, maybe they tried to hit him or role-block him and it didn't work. Not sure if they would get notified by this, but either way, that's the only possible reason. Which would mean that LD is indeed SK, and Mafia found him. We should KILL the SK as it clearly didn't help the town thus far, and if we let him live he will most likely get revenge on whoever he is pissed at *cough* bum *cough*. Please see PYP mafia that just ended where town kept presumed SK alive, see how good that did us. Now, in order to check bum, we only need one DT to check bumatlarge and Beneather. If they flip DT/vanilla, then we are a-ok!, if not, then we have cought TWO mafias at once. AND the SK. This is like, awesomest scenario ever. 2. bumatlarge is DT Then he is right about SK. He will help the town further on. There is no reasonable scenario where LD is not SK. Really. It's a really dumb move my mafia to stick out their head like that if Lunar is just a townie they want dead. We will find out instantly during the night when the KP doesn't drop. Plus, nobody has claimed RB yet, that can mean that: a) mafia didn't use it to make lunar seem even more like an SK b) mafia used it on lunar and he's not claiming because it would prove he is SK c) mafia used it on someone else who's being a newb and not claiming. Also, if any of the other DTs found stuff that is contradicting what bumatlarge is saying, say something. We'll have 2 mafias to lynch because of that, and you can get protection, assuming that you can prove your posts. Think well before claiming though. Do so only if it helps the town. So, let's draw the line and think of options: 1. We lynch LunarD: KP drops by one, we check for scum, and possibly have two more in the future 2. We lynch bumatlarge: SK is still alive, and we lose one DT. That's just DANDY. We hope that SK has more success in killing reds, even though statistically, he will do more bad than good until the number of town/mafia get to the same values. And we obviously have to kill one of these two tonight, so don't go off bandwagoning on some dumb wild goose chase. Rofl at delayed rage. Didn't feel like that yesterday? Where is that analysis you promised me? | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
On February 02 2011 19:02 Barundar wrote: + Show Spoiler + On February 02 2011 18:50 CubEdIn wrote: Ok, NEWBIES, time for Cube to post. Let's start by assuming Kav is not mafia (could be sk, but not mafia). If he is mafia then the whole census thing is screwed and we can just roll the dice when killing people. So let's remove that variable for now. I freaking -TOLD YOU- that Nemesis was not scum. It was impossible, but you guys would not listen. That post he made when it was past lynch time in day 2 was super-town. But you bastards decided to kill him anyway. I am raging. Now, about the bumatlarge situation, it's really FKING simple. (also wtf Kav @ saying we should lynch possible DT? you bonkers?) Here are the options: 1) bumatlarge is SCUM Let's start with this one because it's most fun. Why would scum push for someone to get lynched instead of using KPs on him? Well let's see, maybe they tried to hit him or role-block him and it didn't work. Not sure if they would get notified by this, but either way, that's the only possible reason. Which would mean that LD is indeed SK, and Mafia found him. We should KILL the SK as it clearly didn't help the town thus far, and if we let him live he will most likely get revenge on whoever he is pissed at *cough* bum *cough*. Please see PYP mafia that just ended where town kept presumed SK alive, see how good that did us. Now, in order to check bum, we only need one DT to check bumatlarge and Beneather. If they flip DT/vanilla, then we are a-ok!, if not, then we have cought TWO mafias at once. AND the SK. This is like, awesomest scenario ever. 2. bumatlarge is DT Then he is right about SK. He will help the town further on. There is no reasonable scenario where LD is not SK. Really. It's a really dumb move my mafia to stick out their head like that if Lunar is just a townie they want dead. We will find out instantly during the night when the KP doesn't drop. Plus, nobody has claimed RB yet, that can mean that: a) mafia didn't use it to make lunar seem even more like an SK b) mafia used it on lunar and he's not claiming because it would prove he is SK c) mafia used it on someone else who's being a newb and not claiming. Also, if any of the other DTs found stuff that is contradicting what bumatlarge is saying, say something. We'll have 2 mafias to lynch because of that, and you can get protection, assuming that you can prove your posts. Think well before claiming though. Do so only if it helps the town. So, let's draw the line and think of options: 1. We lynch LunarD: KP drops by one, we check for scum, and possibly have two more in the future 2. We lynch bumatlarge: SK is still alive, and we lose one DT. That's just DANDY. We hope that SK has more success in killing reds, even though statistically, he will do more bad than good until the number of town/mafia get to the same values. And we obviously have to kill one of these two tonight, so don't go off bandwagoning on some dumb wild goose chase. Rofl at delayed rage. Didn't feel like that yesterday? Where is that analysis you promised me? What do you mean? We only knew that he is not red when Kav posted census results. I tried to get him off the lynch several times but nobody cared. As for my analysis, do you really want me to post that now, when we have a clear pick between two people? It was directed at GMarshall and it was about how I think it's 80% sure he is SK or red. Now I got my foot stuck in my mouth, but i'll still post it after we get rid of Lunar and see if he was indeed SK. | ||
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