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On February 02 2011 14:50 Impervious wrote:
If the detective checks the role of the mayor, and the mayor is a member of the mafia, will it specify that the mayor is a member of the mafia?
If so, the DT could check tonight to confirm.
Then again, how can we prove that the "DT" isn't lying?
if mayor is mafia he will be GF no doubt.
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On February 02 2011 14:51 Coagulation wrote:
thats kinda a stretch
but i wouldnt say hes 100% confirmed DT
but you sound like you admitted to being SK earlier.
I did not admit to being SK.
I am examine if dt would really claim to dt a SK.
I pointed a dt would NOT want to lynch SK because mafia is winning.
Because mafia is winning, SK would want to kill mafia.
If SK want to kill mafia, then it is in town's interest to let SK live.
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found a really solid clue
Barundar - Replaced Nfi Profile = http://imgur.com/Sm7iO.png
"give a man a mask"
Harmlessly passing your time in the grassland away;
And laughing and singing the masked man ran along
And laughing and singing he shot Kitaman
And laughing and singing he ran along
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now either barundar is scum
or the host is horrible at clues.
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On February 02 2011 14:53 Coagulation wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 14:50 Impervious wrote:
If the detective checks the role of the mayor, and the mayor is a member of the mafia, will it specify that the mayor is a member of the mafia?
If so, the DT could check tonight to confirm.
Then again, how can we prove that the "DT" isn't lying? if mayor is mafia he will be GF no doubt.
Didn't they have to choose who the GF was before we chose mayor? Or wasn't it a simultaneous thing?
If so, they couldn't have guaranteed that the GF would be the mayor.....
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The Sheep told us not to do word matching and also I already pointed out Barundar
On p.69: LINK
On January 31 2011 15:49 LunarDestiny wrote:Finger pointing mode: Barundar/ NfiShow nested quote +He looked up and saw a masked man with a blood-spattered black apron tied around his waist. The man masterfully handled his instruments, hands moving at a blur, flashes of steel rising and falling, leaving perfectly sized morsels behind. He lifted a finger to his mouth and sucked.
Show nested quote +"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person, give man a mask, and he will tell you the truth." Minor clues: Masked Man and "I Love Trance" which is his profile pic relates to music. Definitely not enough to say he is mafia. But needed to be pointed out.
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Ok. Here's the problem with lynching Lunar to check the Bum:
First, Logic:
On the most fundamental level, town needs to rely on Behavioral Analysis. NOT BLUES. Ver has stressed this, and more recently BC emphasized this in his recent town-play thread. (If you don't believe me, I can post quotes.)
So if we are going to check the two, we lynch the one that is less valuable, right? According to the above, Lunar is MUCH more helpful with behavioral analysis than Bum. Chances are Mafia are going to hit bum tonight. If he's right then there's a medic gone so they can stack hits to kill him (assuming two medics). In other words, if Bum is town, and not lying, then it's unlikely that he will get any more checks in.
So let's review: Bum will likely die tonight, so if he's telling the truth and we lynch him, we do the mafia a favor and they don't have to use KP on him. If Bum is lying then we lose Lunar, one of the most helpful townies thus far. Of the two, just looking at logic, we take a BIGGER risk lynching LD.
(Also, on a side note, IF LD was actually SK, the mafia would likely hit him for his pro-town posting. Thus, the mafia would know if he's SK. Thus Bum could still be mafia, even if h's right about the SK)
Now, as I have said before, Logic and statistics won't win the game. We have to look at behavioral analysis. (Sorry, I don't have time to do a full blown analysis right now, so if someone else disagrees with me, feel free to post your analysis.)
Lunar has been posting very helpful, and pro-town posts.
Bumatlarge has posted some scummy plans, then shaped up a bit and started being more helpful, but on the whole still hasn't been above suspicion.
On the whole, it's NOT a good idea to lynch LD.
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kav what are you doing man.
are you really recommending lynching our dt over a checked sk?
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To those who think I'm Mafia. Do you really think that I'd be that good at hiding it from so many good players this game? Am I that accomplished of a mafia player? Do some behavioral analysis of me, and look at the implications if I am scum.
People have cited the fact that we haven't lynched scum yet as a reason for me being scum. When RoL ran for mayor he stressed a decentralized leadership, and I agreed with that, and purposefully scaled back my involvement in directing lynches so that I would NOT be the one guy who always got who he wanted lynched, lynched. In general, I've not posted analysis as much as I would like, because I knew that if I did tons of analysis, no one else would.
Entrusting me with all the decisions will ruin it for the town, so I made sure that I'm not the one doing all the work.
I'm defending LD now because I don't want to see a great asset to the town go down that easily. I don't want a bandwagon forming on him that we can't get off of him.
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On February 02 2011 15:07 Coagulation wrote:
kav what are you doing man.
are you really recommending lynching our dt over a checked sk?
Right now that's what makes logical sense to me. I'm not totally set in my thinking, explain to me why it would be better? Where is my logic wrong? People are saying that it's scummy play, but from what I've seen this would be pretty standard, right? Here: let me break down my logic:
Player A accuses Player B of being scum through DT check. This is a simple trade. 1-1. Lynch one to figure out if one is lying. Normal play, right?
Now, who do you lynch? The person who is LESS valuable to the town. (This is the same logic that they used when a DT accused Ace in mafia III)
I hope this is pretty clear to this point. Please, If you have a problem with this logic let me know. It's fairly common town play from what I understand.
Now the tricky part with this specific case is deciding who is more valuable. Lunar, or Bum.
I make the case that Lunar is the more valuable player. He has been more actively involved with the town in both clue, and behavioral analysis than Bum has been.
Now, you might say that Bum is a DT, therefore he is more helpful than LD. I disagree here, because he will VERY likely be dead tomorrow. (If he's telling the truth, we lost a medic already, so stacking hits will kill him unless this game has three Medics, and I don't think that's likely).
The mafia will try to push for my lynch, so I'm trying to be as open as I can about what I say. Please point out what is wrong with my reasoning, and don't just dismiss it because it involves lynching a potential DT.
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ok i will unvote him..for now
but if we dont find someone dripping with scummieness instead.. hes as good as dead.
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In order for mafia to learn lunar is SK, they would have to hit him right? Every hit has been claimed. There have been no counter claims to anything I have said.
To help you out Kav, I honestly thought I would check lunar and receive Mason back. I was so certain he had gotten PM rights with you, hence why you said he was on par with BG in worth of being protected. This is what I got. It's not bad for SK to act pro-town. But from what Lunar has posted after my find, he has been completely uncooperative and has yet to refute it in the slightest.
We aren't lynching LD to confirm me, we are lynching him to get rid of non-town KP. If you believe LD, then I can not be town. No sitting on the fence here, you have appeared town this whole game, but I can't sit here and let you entertain something that is wrong.
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sorry kav but im getting some bad vibes
anyway can you comment on the barunder and the reoccurring mask clue.
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Let me say this. I believe bumatlarge is mafia.
To those who believe that I am SK and bumatlarge is dt.
How about we do this:
Don't lynch me or bumatlarge.
If bumatlarge dies at night, lynch me.
-If bumatlarge is dt, then mafia would want to kill him soon.
If he dies at night, then bumatlarge is likely telling the truth. If that is the case, I don't care what town do with me.
On the other hand, if bumatlarge is lying and is mafia. He wouldn't be killed (I hope vig or the SK don't shoot him). So lynching me would not help town.
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On February 02 2011 15:45 LunarDestiny wrote:
Let me say this. I believe bumatlarge is mafia.
To those who believe that I am SK and bumatlarge is dt.
How about we do this:
Don't lynch me or bumatlarge.
If bumatlarge dies at night, lynch me.
-If bumatlarge is dt, then mafia would want to kill him soon.
If he dies at night, then bumatlarge is likely telling the truth. If that is the case, I don't care what town do with me.
On the other hand, if bumatlarge is lying and is mafia. He wouldn't be killed (I hope vig or the SK don't shoot him). So lynching me would not help town.
As much as I'd like to agree to that, what happens if I do not die? I am certain mafia?
This is the most basic form of WIFOM in the game of mafia. It's often used as an example to illustrate it. You haven't even mentioned getting hit, so unless I am springing this from nowhere, that is not how I know you are SK.
You are trying to beat around the bush because you are trying to delay this as long as possible. You have now proven you are incapable of following any town instructions. I will not be switching my vote off of you for someone I am not sure about. Excuse me if I am not letting your bad arguments have garner any substance.
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On February 02 2011 14:50 Impervious wrote:
If the detective checks the role of the mayor, and the mayor is a member of the mafia, will it specify that the mayor is a member of the mafia?
Rolechecks on the mayor return "Mayor" regardless of alignment.
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Did town disregard clues completely?
BrownBear
-Name (brownbear)
-Profile pic (instrument, laughing)
I did point out word matching is bad, but recurring clues needed to be pointed out.
Day 1
As the host brought around the drinks, as the the crowd crescendos with laughter, as the band broke out into another song... I felt something was wrong. Did the lights in the ceiling just black out? Are those black shapes in the alcove bats? Is that shadow in the corner a black cat?
Day 2
The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make.
This slightly touch on his name BrownBear.
Day 3
He looked up and saw a masked man with a blood-spattered black apron tied around his waist. The man masterfully handled his instruments, hands moving at a blur, flashes of steel rising and falling, leaving perfectly sized morsels behind. He lifted a finger to his mouth and sucked.
Day 4
And laughing and singing the masked man ran along
And laughing and singing he shot Kitaman
And laughing and singing he ran along
Laughing and singing...
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On February 02 2011 16:01 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 15:45 LunarDestiny wrote:
Let me say this. I believe bumatlarge is mafia.
To those who believe that I am SK and bumatlarge is dt.
How about we do this:
Don't lynch me or bumatlarge.
If bumatlarge dies at night, lynch me.
-If bumatlarge is dt, then mafia would want to kill him soon.
If he dies at night, then bumatlarge is likely telling the truth. If that is the case, I don't care what town do with me.
On the other hand, if bumatlarge is lying and is mafia. He wouldn't be killed (I hope vig or the SK don't shoot him). So lynching me would not help town. As much as I'd like to agree to that, what happens if I do not die? I am certain mafia? This is the most basic form of WIFOM in the game of mafia. It's often used as an example to illustrate it. You haven't even mentioned getting hit, so unless I am springing this from nowhere, that is not how I know you are SK. You are trying to beat around the bush because you are trying to delay this as long as possible. You have now proven you are incapable of following any town instructions. I will not be switching my vote off of you for someone I am not sure about. Excuse me if I am not letting your bad arguments have garner any substance.
If you are telling the truth about being dt. Then mafia would want to hit you.
Why wouldn't they? Killing you means killing me as well. Not killing you will mean you do checks every night.
Also, I did not say you are mafia if you are not killed. I am banking on the fact that your claim as dt and me SK don't make sense. Only mafia will do such thing.
How should I follow town's decision? I am not even SK.
If town tell me to shoot someone, how am I going to shoot when I can't even shoot.
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On February 02 2011 16:05 Node wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 14:50 Impervious wrote:
If the detective checks the role of the mayor, and the mayor is a member of the mafia, will it specify that the mayor is a member of the mafia? Rolechecks on the mayor return "Mayor" regardless of alignment.
Wow that sucks. If kav is mafia then we are pretty screwed.
This gets me thinking about the whole no-flip clue thing in general. Without being able to verify claims, it is very difficult to analyze a players behavior with regards to their alignment. What if nemesis was mafia? The only information we have is from our mayor which we can only hope is town (I really hope you are town kavdragon or this is all a huge joke).
In this game I believe that clues are definitely the most valuable asset the town has. With the amount of townies there are we should be able to boil down all of the clues down to 1 or 2 people and vote from there.
I think we also need to reexamine our clue analysis. I think looking for single words might work sometimes, but in general the clues are probably more along the lines that divinek pointed out
+ Show Spoiler +On February 02 2011 12:16 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 12:13 GMarshal wrote:
Did you have to reveal that kitaman is a Medic? That puts him at risk, although if you are telling the truth we have to hang Lunar. kita is dead so.... also this seems to make sense look at the last clue You'd better watch out! I immediately headed back to the camp in order to find help. I grabbed the first person I saw, Deconduo and asked him to help me remove ilovejohn’s body. Deconduo didn’t help me. As soon as he realized that I wanted him to go inside, he fled. He didn’t get two steps before I killed him. Serves him right. There may be dogs about ---------------------------------------------- and then from lunars profile Show nested quote +
"Crazy. Karma is a b****. Gets you every time. It's not good to wish bad on anybody. God sees everything!"
finally something solid to go on.
The only other thing possible to do is to try to start finding associations or commonalities between what people are saying and how they are voting except that if mafia is smart they will mix their players into supporting certain other players.
I have no idea who the heck I am going to vote for lynch. Mr. Wiggles we need your awesome clue analysis like from the mini mafia game. I'm at a loss 
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On February 02 2011 16:10 LunarDestiny wrote:Did town disregard clues completely? BrownBear-Name (brownbear) -Profile pic (instrument, laughing) I did point out word matching is bad, but recurring clues needed to be pointed out. Day 1 Show nested quote +As the host brought around the drinks, as the the crowd crescendos with laughter, as the band broke out into another song... I felt something was wrong. Did the lights in the ceiling just black out? Are those black shapes in the alcove bats? Is that shadow in the corner a black cat? Day 2 Show nested quote +The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make. This slightly touch on his name BrownBear. Day 3 Show nested quote +He looked up and saw a masked man with a blood-spattered black apron tied around his waist. The man masterfully handled his instruments, hands moving at a blur, flashes of steel rising and falling, leaving perfectly sized morsels behind. He lifted a finger to his mouth and sucked. Day 4 Show nested quote +And laughing and singing the masked man ran along
And laughing and singing he shot Kitaman
And laughing and singing he ran along Laughing and singing...
That last clue from day4 is really good. If you are an SK then I wouldn't mind keeping you around just to provide us clues.
Need more of this, less of other stuff.
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EPT
