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United Kingdom36161 Posts
Looking through some shit. One interesting thing. VE says slOosh was sure he was town and rants at town for being a candidate. I include below slOosh's last post mentioning VE, where he was in fact a possible scum candidate.
On August 08 2012 06:57 VisceraEyes wrote:
Man, slOosh was like, TOTALLY sure I was town. I guess no one finds it...ODD that one of his stronger town-reads just HAPPENS to be one of the lynch candidates today...the day AFTER he's not around to smack the shit out of the wagon leaders HOLY PISS THE WAGON LEADERS ARE SLOOSH'S SCUMREADS WELL TARNATION!! Now that is a coincidence. You know what else is a coincidence? The fact that Erandorr happened to flipflop on me after my read on him and after slOosh flipped town. That's a coincidence too, surely.
BUT HEY, KEEP DOIN WHAT YOU'RE DOIN GUYS IT'S WORKING OUT! I PROMISE!
On August 06 2012 08:37 slOosh wrote:
Yea, so I reread the whole thread from the start. Here's what I got:
Talismania is tomorrow's lynch. He has continued to ask inane questions, pursue irrelevant topics, and the problem is that people are actually getting distracted in responding to him. He has under the guise of ignorance tried to pass off anti town advice and is feigning contribution when it really is meaningless activity.
Other good scum candidates I picked up combing through thread were
BioSC
Hier
Lazermonkey
VE is maybe 3rd tier. Unless he has a strong showing tomorrow I'd chalk him up scum using mason as an excuse for thread inactivity.
Reminder to detectives that you are ROLE cops, not ALIGNMENT cops. That is, checking masons are a waste of an investigation. Vigs should aim to shoot scum. SCUM. Shooting lurker is not ok unless you have reasonable belief that he is scum, because frankly we have too many and you will probably end up hitting a lazy townie.
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Why I think VisceraEyes is scum
(1) Meta
VE's meta is off. He is normally an active, even spammy player as town (days are RL days, pre-game posts not counted):
Posts in Bureaucracy (town): ~220 in 8 days
Posts in Normal Mini Mafia 2 (town): ~140 before he was lynched 5 days in (Note that this was the beginning of his new, "restrained" playstyle.
Posts in Movie Star Mini (town): ~240 posts before he was lynched 6 days in
Posts in iGrok's Clean old-fashioned (town): ~140 before he was lynched 6 days in
Posts in Emergency Mini Mafia (town): ~100 before he was killed 5 days in
Posts in Liar Game (town): ~60 before he was lynched 3 days in
Posts in LV (town): staggeringly ~300 before he was lynched 5 days in
However, he is less active as scum:
Posts in Wheel of Fortune Mini Mafia (scum): ~50 in 6 days. ( Filter for comparison: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=330925&user=117978 )
(This was the only scum game I found (not counting his SK game). Are there others?)
And how many posts does he have this game?
~80 in 8 days.
10 posts a day, just like Wheel of Fortune, and completely unlike his most recent town games. Bureaucracy: almost 30 posts per day for the first 8 days. NMM2: almost 30 posts per day for the first 8 days. Both of these town games were played with him consciously trying to post less.
(2) Scummy behavioral traits
(a) A strange amount of certainty, particularly when it comes to lynches.
Townies do not know who scum are. It is typical for them to express doubt when it comes to placing their votes and making their cases. VE hasn't really doubted himself this game.
(b) Lots of exaggerations.
He exaggerates many things, some of which I've pointed out before, in making his cases.
(c) Failure to follow up. Townies say they're going to do something and then do it. VE says he's going to do things but never really gets around to it:
On August 04 2012 11:28 VisceraEyes wrote:
I'm gonna reread the thread. Zeph's activity is at least such that if he's scum he's sure to let me know soon enough...and there are FAR too many lurkers for a healthy town at this point. He's defended himself at least, yet is still interested in finding scum. Not comfortable lynching anymore...but keep talking Zeph.
##Unvote Zephirdd
I'm rereading with a focus on players who barely have any content, and hopefully one of them jumps out at me...because at this point I'm on the verge of a Lurker Policy Lynch...and those of you who have played with me know it's serious if it's come to that.
On August 06 2012 02:58 VisceraEyes wrote:
I'm finally near a computer. I'm going to post my thoughts on prplhz as promised, even though it's useless now, and give my thoughts on those of us remaining.
prplhz entered the game in what I perceived to be an extraordinarily scummy way. The first thing he did upon entering was complain about spam that had yet to even occur. I mean, there's fostering a pro-town environment and there's seeking out easy town-cred by saying something completely devoid of content, you know? Anyway, when I called him out on it his response was to diffuse the situation. I viewed this as overly diplomatic according to what I've observed as prplhz' playstyle. As a result, my scumread on prplhz was born.
His only subsequent actions he made in the game were his case on Glasse and his vote on slOosh for inactivity. Those are the only things prplhz had done in the game. And looking at the timing of it all, it just looked extremely bad.
But prplhz flipped town. So that leaves us with the question:
Who, among us, is scum?
Right now I'm looking into talismania, Errandor, Zephirdd and I'm filtering one JingleHell and I'm trying to figure out what to think about wherebugsgo. I'll post my findings in detail a little later...but those are my preliminary thoughts before reading/casemaking.
Anyone saying I'm scum for "my attitude" needs to have their head checked. I've been trying to help. I apologize for my absence, I intend to do my part in finding and destroying our enemies.
He did eventually post stuff about me and erandorr, but never his findings on zeph or jinglehell or wbg. And the stuff he did post on me and erandorr suggests he really didn't pay much attention to his "looking into"
On August 07 2012 02:01 VisceraEyes wrote:
Wow I live. Amazing.
I don't know why we're assuming slOosh was double-stacked - while I don't think it's likely that grush was a priority scum target, the way he was playing and posting felt kinda blue to me, so I can imagine it would feel blue to scum too. Plus, considering Bugs is among the only voices who was speaking out in opposition of grush, it makes even less sense to assume that a vig killed grush (because Bugs was under such heavy suspicion himself.)
Until we get a vig claim, I'm assuming that both scum shots have been accounted for here.
Bugs, our masoning is over sir. If you want to discuss with me, do so in the thread guy.
There's some interesting stuff going on - I'll comment after my reread.
He posted this after I had made my huge case on him. But he never commented on it until much later. The next thing he wrote was "okay" when I asked him to mason me.
On August 07 2012 06:53 VisceraEyes wrote:@Bugs Looking at talis' activity, I'm less inclined to vote him. I mean - I get the case on me and I can't refute it...it's based almost entirely around the quality of my case against him, which I'll admit is fairly bad. That being said, I've masoned talis and we'll see where my read on him goes from here. Errandor is looking like the best target today - we've now flipped a town mason, so theoretically speaking lynching into the masons is a good plan if we're subscribing to the idea that scum must have masons. That aside, I had a scum read leaving N1 and that hasn't changed. I feel like his defense against my points fails to address the main crux of my argument which is that rather than argue his points logically, he's more interested in turning town AGAINST you appealing to their emotions. It just sucks for him that most everyone KNOWS you're a bastard regardless of alignment.  And in response to your first question...no guy. 5 out of what 20? players isn't enough. I'm thoroughly DISatisfied with town's activity right now. Hopefully I'll be able to add something more to the conversation soon.
He didn't add anything to the conversation for another three hours, when he just voted for erandorr after riling him up. Also note that he says he's dissatisfied with town's activity when he himself is way under his own activity trends.
(3) Making poor cases with little research and no consideration of alternate possibilities
See my previous posts here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=352668¤tpage=43#853
and here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=352668¤tpage=61#1220
(4) Non-townie usage of the mason role
(a) His stated reasoning for masoning wbg makes no sense and continues to make no sense:
On August 04 2012 01:38 VisceraEyes wrote:
Because I'd rather hunt for scum than defend myself, so I masoned a veteran in as a shortcut to establishing my innocence with him if he's town so he can smack down anyone (Toad) who thinks I'm scum for stupid-ass reasons.
Also if he's scum, I wanted a private line with him in case he felt like telling me all about it in PMs. So far he hasn't. :/
Him instantly outting me wasn't something I'd considered. I figured he'd talk to me about it first. I have a long way to go in understanding Bugs' play.
(b) He exaggerates what our PM conversation was like, which I explain here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=352668¤tpage=61#1220
(c) He calls me scum, then refuses to talk to me in PMs anymore. Why does a townie tell a scum player they think the scum is scum, and then refuse to talk to that person? A townie doesn't tell the scum what they think, and instead pumps the scum for more information. Cutting off communication with me during N2 made no sense at all.
(5) Logical inconsistencies
(a) Stating that zephirdd and I have equal chances of being scum, yet basing his scumread on zephirdd based on a connection to me. Subsequently votes zephirdd instead of me, even though I'm the original scumread. (this makes sense from a scum pov of course because lynching me first immediately makes VE look bad). See this post and try to follow the logic: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=352668¤tpage=60#1194
(b) Contradicting himself when it comes to why he found WBG town.
Originally, he writes
On August 04 2012 01:42 VisceraEyes wrote:
Eran: he thinks you're either dumb or scum. A loss of a player like that to NK is preferable to a NK on like...him. By his estimation. Bugs is probably town bro...I think he'd try and manipulate us in PMs rather than instantly out us if he were scum.
and shortly thereafter adds
On August 04 2012 01:49 VisceraEyes wrote:
He certainly hasn't done anything in PMland to convince me he's town, that's for sure. I'm basing that read exclusively on the fact that he outted myself and Eran SnB. Do you feel like he did it to "fuck with town" rather than for the reason he gave?
Where the "He" is WBG.
HOWEVER, later when asked (several times) about why he found wbg to be town he finally answers:
On August 07 2012 09:51 VisceraEyes wrote:
*snip*
1) His reads / willingness to discuss them with me
*snip*
He completely forgot the original reason he made up to say why he thought bugs was town. A townie wouldn't forget that.
_________________
Please read what I just wrote, if you skimmed. Imagine that I didn't write it, if that helps. This is the best case anyone has made all game. Vote VE.
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On August 11 2012 04:48 marvellosity wrote:Looking through some shit. One interesting thing. VE says slOosh was sure he was town and rants at town for being a candidate. I include below slOosh's last post mentioning VE, where he was in fact a possible scum candidate. Show nested quote +On August 08 2012 06:57 VisceraEyes wrote:
Man, slOosh was like, TOTALLY sure I was town. I guess no one finds it...ODD that one of his stronger town-reads just HAPPENS to be one of the lynch candidates today...the day AFTER he's not around to smack the shit out of the wagon leaders HOLY PISS THE WAGON LEADERS ARE SLOOSH'S SCUMREADS WELL TARNATION!! Now that is a coincidence. You know what else is a coincidence? The fact that Erandorr happened to flipflop on me after my read on him and after slOosh flipped town. That's a coincidence too, surely.
BUT HEY, KEEP DOIN WHAT YOU'RE DOIN GUYS IT'S WORKING OUT! I PROMISE! Show nested quote +On August 06 2012 08:37 slOosh wrote:
Yea, so I reread the whole thread from the start. Here's what I got:
Talismania is tomorrow's lynch. He has continued to ask inane questions, pursue irrelevant topics, and the problem is that people are actually getting distracted in responding to him. He has under the guise of ignorance tried to pass off anti town advice and is feigning contribution when it really is meaningless activity.
Other good scum candidates I picked up combing through thread were
BioSC
Hier
Lazermonkey
VE is maybe 3rd tier. Unless he has a strong showing tomorrow I'd chalk him up scum using mason as an excuse for thread inactivity.
Reminder to detectives that you are ROLE cops, not ALIGNMENT cops. That is, checking masons are a waste of an investigation. Vigs should aim to shoot scum. SCUM. Shooting lurker is not ok unless you have reasonable belief that he is scum, because frankly we have too many and you will probably end up hitting a lazy townie.
I guess nobody caught that earlier, I'm gonna go read some stuff but if there's nothing to prove his "TOTALLY sure I was town" that's just telling lies and we should lynch all liars.
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On August 11 2012 03:50 Hopeless1der wrote:
That's infuriating Glasse...
@Marv,
Lynching into Xsebt is insane to me because no one has counterclaimed and giving up a dt for a scum in that order is not the way to go about doing things.
Talis presumably is not blue given his arguments this past day. If he flips VT, THEN I'd want to lynch xsebt. If Talis were to flip miller or scum, xsebt is pretty much confirmed.
I'd like to believe we'd be significantly better off lynching talis today if it were between xsebt and talis.
I want to make sure this gets through to you: xsebt is 99% a real DT without knowing my alignment
(1) The host has confirmed to me that DTs get character names, role names, and alignments. This fits.
(2) Xsebt's behavior is exactly what a kind of new DT player would do. He gets a red check on me and immediately tunnels me.
(3) It makes no sense from a scum perspective. We've been through this already. Trading one for one with a suspicious VT etc
__________
I want to stress to the thread again:
XSEBT IS DT.
He checked me N1 and has a red check. I am a miller.
He checked toad N2 and has a green check. Yes, to reiterate, the host has told me DTs not only get roles and character names, they also get alignments. Toad is 99% town
The only scenario where what I've written is not true is if both xsebt and toad are scum, but that makes so little sense given everything else that I'm not even going to bother with it (see point 3 above, for starters).
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Okay, fuck this. We must lynch Talismania today!
I am not going to analyse Talismanias behavior before the red claim as that has already been done. SlOosh had concerns with the very little actual scum hunting Talis did and VE also posted a semi big case on him a while back. I recomend you guys to read these things again. I also belive there was one more case on Talismania, although I don't remember who posted it. These are both points and I've been somewhat suspicious of him for a while. However, he wasn't my highest scum read untill the read check. While you could argue that it is good or not good to be lynching someone just because of a redcheck( Hi Jingle, I know you love me and I love you! : DDD)Talis play have been suspicious.
I'm going to analyse some of his play after the DT claim. If one were in Talis postition and knew you were miller what would you do? Probebly say that you were miller which Talis is doing but also post all of your reads and the reasoning for them. Because even if you get lynched which is quite likely everyone will at least know that they can trust your reads to 100%. Talis have spend alot of time saying that he is miller, why he should be godfather if he was scum etc and very little if any time to dicuss his reads. He says that Toad is probebly town but who does he think is scum?
On August 10 2012 10:03 talismania wrote:
Bottom line:
xsebt - DT
talismania - miller
toad - town mason
jinglehell - town mason
VE - scum mason
hassybaby - scum mason (?)
BKE - scum goon
Count Dropula - scum godfather (Sinensis smurf - has to be someone who played with zeph in NMM II)
hier - scum goon
I think I know who the vig is as well but I won't say.
__________
I say we lynch VE and have xsebt check BKE. If neither comes up red, lynch me tomorrow. So he posts his lists of scum. No explaination, no reason just the 5 he thinks are scum. And look! He is posting VE who was under the heaviest pressure at that moment, however he had posted a long case on him earlier so no real contribution here- Not a very bold claim.
On August 10 2012 10:41 talismania wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 10:13 Hier wrote:
Talis, or we can lynch you today, after Xsebt gets modkilled and flips town DT, sounds good? You kind of assume you are a miller. Does this smell incredibly off to anyone else? Like I can't logically put my finger on it but my brain is screaming at me that this is a scumslip or something. Like, if he's saying that xsebt is going to flip town DT, then why does he state after that that I assume I'm a miller? What else do I assume in that case? Like, is he trying to say that I am incorrectly assuming that I'm a miller, and therefore that xsebt is scum? That's the only logical way to interpret those two sentences but I'm fairly sure that's not what he was getting at. Look how flip floppy his accusations are! He is asking for everyone else's opinion and he seems very unsure of his accusations. Why would he be that? He just called Heir scum just moments ago. WIFOM obviously, but I guess this could be a way for him to try avoid getting voted by Heir at the same time trying to apear scum hunting.
On August 10 2012 10:54 talismania wrote:
Look if you guys feel you have to lynch me, then fine. You'll have one mislynch to give before you're at LYLO. That said I will keep fighting until the end because I honor my wincon.
Here's the list of roles in the game, for those who missed it earlier:
xsebt - DT
talismania - miller
toad - town mason
jinglehell - town mason
VisceraEyes - scum mason
hassybaby - scum mason
BroodKingEXE - scum goon
CountDropula - scum godfather
Hier - scum goon
If you follow that list, you will win. (Hopefully if I'm wrong I'm not TOO wrong).
Toad, they'll probably keep you alive because of how wrong you've been and likely will continue to be. If I can't convince you today then I hope you can swallow your pride and start fresh after I die.
Medics, protect xsebt.
Xsebt, check BKE first, then hier, then synystyr, then glasse.
Marvellosity, Jingle, maybe lazermonkey. You guys will have to be town leaders after I'm dead. Marv I know you're not invested in this game since you weren't in it at the beginning but please try to win it for us. Long post, but what does he really say here? He already posted the scum reads(I know he says that as well...) and the rest of the post is like no contribution at all. Medic protects DT should goes without saying.
On August 10 2012 11:08 talismania wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 11:01 Hier wrote:On August 10 2012 10:57 talismania wrote:On August 10 2012 10:56 Hier wrote:
Talis, grats on 2k. Thanks, gratz on getting lucky with me being miller. Ok so, wait. I must have missed the memo. You think I'm scum purely based on the fact that I think that you being scum is more likely than you being a miller? Because I saw no accusations from you before this point. That kind of makes you look more scummy. Eh you're the one I'm least sure about definitely. It's between you glasse and synystyr. Synystyr is up there with you since he continuously fails his activity standards and hasn't contributed much to the game. I'll rethink things after a break so that I can settle down and give my final reads out for people to follow once I'm dead and flipped.
On August 10 2012 11:10 talismania wrote:
@Hier Oh and for why I picked you over the other two - your filter has nothing substantial in it. You have taken no initiative. You also show signs of being an active lurker. You delurk rather quickly when your name comes up but otherwise stay silent. You are attentive to the events of the game without trying to become entangled in them yourself.
Only answers when called out by Heir. Also note that he is very unsure of his read on Heir.
On August 10 2012 13:23 talismania wrote:Why I'm town: (1) Why am I a goon?Mafia got to pick their own roles. Look at the players left in this game. Imagine that I am scum. What other three players in this game, on my scum team, would end up with mason (assuming there are two scum masons) and godfather? Toad? VE? Toad obviously isn't scum with me. Neither is VE. Hassy? The only thing Hassy has done is point out suspicious things I've done. So what - GF goes to a lurky new guy over me? I love the mason role. I don't know for sure if I would have taken it as scum because it is kind of fraught with peril but I for sure would have taken GF over goon and who else in this game could claim as much? Why, if I'm a goon, do behave like this? So actively, playing exactly to my town meta. Why do I even talk about setup shit if I'm a goon lol. As GF, sure. But goon? No way. (2) Who the hell are my scumbuddies?No scum have died yet. Let's look at the remaining players. I'll do this off the top of my head: VE - wants me lynched. I want him lynched. toad - very publicly vacillated on me. Can't be my scumbuddy or he doesn't bring up this whole stink. zephirdd - called me scum D1. Called me scum N2 (with VE for some reason). Hassybaby - only thing he's talked about is my setup talk and cast suspicion thereon. And I've been very public about not minding him getting lynched either. xsebt - obviously not my scumbuddy count dropula - wants me dead. Voted me D1 before changing, has promoted me to scum-marionette. synystyr - wants me lynched. lazer - no problem voting for me today. Ok that's all I remember off the top of my head let's look at the remaining filters hopeless1der - voted me day 1 hier - has called me scum, wanted to lynch me or erandorr D2 BKE - no real stance on me, but I want him checked by the DT and lynched. jinglehell - used to think I was town glasse - no real stance on me that I see. marv - said I was town. Clearly from this the only conclusion is that my whole scum strategy is to bus all my teammates and get bussed by them. I've done that before, or tried to, in I can't believe it's not themed mini (filter here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351147&user=32774 ). Compare the activity in those two filters. What happened when I was under duress? I gave up and waited to be lynched. Is that what I'm doing now? This leads us to the next point: (3) My MetaI like playing town. I dislike playing scum. When I'm town I'm active, when I'm scum I'm inactive. The only scum game I've tried in was Pick Your Poison and I know I'm playing way more actively and aggressively than I ever did in that game (filter here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=340727&user=32774 ). Other mafia game filters: BangBang2: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=340480&user=32774. Compare those to SSB64: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=348072&user=32774 and Bastard 2: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=343892&user=32774Especially read SSB64. I was town and was mislynched. Toad you should know this better than anyone. Did I give up? Did I ever stop trying? No. I knew I was the only townie who had the game figured out at that point, and I knew it was my job to convince the other townies. They stubbornly refused to listen and I ended up getting lynched, shot, and we lost the game. Of course I was culpable to some degree. How did I get in trouble that game? Toad you know the answer - I speculated (correctly, by the way) about the nature of the setup. Contrast that with I Can't Believe It's Not Themed where I gave up as fast as I could as mafia getting lynched (Mattchew and Dropbear were my scumbuddies for those reading the filter). (4) N2 Night killsWhy do I, as scum, kill solstice and strongandbig? Both of them were on the same page as I when it came to VE. If I'm scum, then clearly a major part of my plan is to get VE lynched. Why do I make that intentionally harder on myself? I don't. I kill toad in that situation, 100% of the time. I also kill the person whom I believe is the vigilante. Scum picked those two because it suited their purposes (reduced focus on VE) plus they thought it would be funny if they kept picking the targets that I said should be defended. As far as N1 goes, I agree and would have double-stacked sloosh, assuming that's what happened and gambled on there only being one medic or one of them deciding not to protect him. (5) Why the hell do I do this?Why am I convinced Xsebt is town DT, instead of scum? Why aren't I arguing against him? Why, instead, did I go out of my way to get toad to post exactly what was in those PMs, because I knew that if it said "Henry Francais" instead of "Henry Francis" then he had to be a DT as only I and BC were privy to that spelling in my PM. I was asking for this very early on today: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=352668¤tpage=62#1229_________________ At the end of the day, what is more likely?: --That I'm a crazy scum who chose goon over godfather, set out to bus all my teammates or be bussed by them, stated who I would be killing every night just for the shits and even risked directing medic protection at who I picked, and have managed to play to my town meta better than I've ever done in my life. (Seriously people just count the number of pages in the filters). --That I'm a townie miller. Long post on why he must be miller.
Point 1 is purely based on WIFOM and is thus disregarded.
Point 2 is such bad logic from his side (assuming that he is miller...). For example you say that people who was suspicious or voted you on D1 or D2 can't be your scum mates. LOL. You weren't close to getting lynched neither D1 nor D2 so why bring that up? Also I don't really see any telling with people wanting to lynch you right know. If there is any time you would want to bus, wouldn't that be when you got a red check?
Point 3 is WIFOM once again.
Point 4 is WIFOM.
Point 5 is bad logic once again. It's not like you were the only reason for Toad to out Xsebt. Also arguing against someone who had ''guessed'' the name of Toads character correctly wouldn't look very good neither.
On August 10 2012 13:33 talismania wrote:
Ok I messed up earlier when I said there were 17 people alive. Apparently there's only 16 unless I've miscounted again:
1. Hassybaby
2. mrzentor
3. Toadesstern
4. visceraeyes
5. BroodKingEXE
6. talismania
7. lazermonkey
8. Hopeless1der
9. jinglehell
10. zephirdd
11. XsebT
12. Hier
13. Glasse
14. CountDropula
15. Marv
16. Synystyr
So right now it's 11 - 5
Assuming I'm mislynched, that puts us at 10 - 5, then 2 night kills, 8 - 5. That's essentially lylo. Mislynch and you have to pray for a medic save. That means every day a scum has to be lynched.
Upshot: lynch me, likely lose the game. Do what I say, have a fighting chance.
Fellow townies, please take this seriously. Ask me as many questions as you need to. Please take the time to check my meta. Please read my posts thoroughly. I will be as succinct and direct as possible.
Ya, we can count, even when you are lynched.
On August 11 2012 01:59 talismania wrote:
Let's talk about this game.
Scum: you guys know how good of a position you're in. You can win without losing a member.
Town: I don't think it's really set in for most of you how terrible of a position you're in. Let me explain it again.
Right now there are 11 town and 5 scum.
Here's what will probably happen: I'm lynched, jingle and marv are killed at night, toad is still completely wrong the next day and zephirdd gets lynched, GG flawless scum victory. The only real chance is if when I actually do flip miller toad (assuming he's town) actually realizes that he's just been completely wrong about everything in this game and genuinely re-evaluates the situation and sees that VE is the most obviously scummy person in this game. Sidenote: if this doesn't happen people need to look at toad more carefully because I can't imagine him being wrong for that long is weird even for his standards.
Alternate scenarios:
(1) I'm lynched and flip miller, jingle and marv are killed. 8 - 5, lylo. VE or BKE is finally lynched, lazer and toad killed. 6 - 4, lylo. The other of VE or BKE is lynched. 2 other townies killed. 4 - 3, lylo. Count Dropula or Hier gets lynched (depending on what xsebt says), then it will be 3 - 2 the next day. Then 2 - 1. So to say it again,
If I am lynched, town will be at lylo from now until they lose or lynch all five scum in a row*
*Of course, this is barring medic protects. However, the medics should be on xsebt. Scum may attempt to double stack on xsebt, gambling that there's only one medic too, which might reduce the NK. And of course, if there's still vig shots out there then that can accelerate or decelerate the game.
(2) I'm lynched and flip scum. VE and synystyr NK'd I guess? 9 - 4. Not a terrible position but not great either. One mislynch (say, zephirdd) puts it at 6 - 4 and right back to lylo. Also it won't happen because I'm not scum.
(3) VE or hassy gets lynched today and flips scum. 9 - 4 but people actually realize that I was right. I'll probably be NK'd but that's a tricky play for scum given that I do have a red check. If they leave me alive I'll be able to lead at least one other scum lynch, putting town in the advantage. This is the best case scenario. Too bad I don't think you'll be convinced. What you say in this whole post is basically ''if you lynch me and I am a miller you are in big trouble''. We know that. But that isn't important. What is important is if you are a miller or not, not how bad position we will be left in if you were a miller.
On August 11 2012 02:27 talismania wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 02:05 marvellosity wrote:
why do you think zeph is town, talis? I'm fairly certain VE is scum. I think Dropula is the godfather as well. I know - a bit connectiony. Zephirdd just doesn't fit with any model of scum play this game. We both played with him when he was traitor in Pick Your Power and I seem to recall a safer style of posting then, not as loose. In Pick Your Poison I was scum and he was town and I found him incredibly scummy and spent the whole game more or less plotting to get him mislynched. He just does things that people consider obvious scumtells as town. I think he's done that here. I mean, scum aren't playing that great this game. They haven't built any good cases or actually convinced people. They instead pick up on the stupidest little things, like my discussion of setup, or zephirdd's list of people that hadn't posted in D1 and base their false suspicions on those. Marv, assuming you're town, which I lean on you and BioSc but can't really prove, you should really dig into this game during the night phase. Read through it like you're scum, since you're quite good at scum, and discern the scum lynch pushes and plans. I think you will come to the same conclusion that I have, which is that VE is scum mason, and that count dropula's play is explained perfectly if he's a sinensis smurf (dropula attacks zephirdd based on zeph's meta in Normal Mini Mafia 2, claiming that he went and read zeph's past games. No one ever reads past games, especially not "new" players which is what dropula claims he is. Dropula is acting weird as fuck because he wants to draw DT checks because he's GF). Once again, only when called out does he give out his reads. But now he at least gives out a few town reads, although all of them seems very vauge. He does at least explain that he thinks Dropula is GF.
He also recently posts a case on VE. We know he is suspicious of VE. And TBH, I had VE as my highest scum read before the red check on Talis. VE should get lynched if you flip miller Talis, although not very likely. Talis has spend shit loads of time after he got red checked to speak about setup, about blues and other stuff we don't really need to hear right now. The thing he should prioritize the most, reads, have only been done when he is called out for it, except for VE but he was already massivly suspicious of VE before so no chocker here.
TLDR;
KILL TALISMANIA!
KILL IT WITH FIRE!
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
gosh, Lazer. I don't remember you being so posty.
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@Lazer, I've only skimmed what you've written but I will indeed post my read on every single player in this game before the day is through. My first priority in this situation is to establish my innocence as much as possible, then make the lynch between me and my top scumread, then get that person lynched. This is standard.
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If you know one thing about puppeteers,
It is that the show must go on.
I will not let the play end in its first act.
Town will survive.
The pressing nature of the game...
Means my plans must be revealed
Before the time is right.
On night 1, found Zephirdd to be Sally Draper the mafia goon
Given the state of my credibility, I then needed someone to back me when I claimed.
On night 2 I investigated arch-townie Lazermonkey, Harry Crane the townie
Now I will propose a plan for us to stay alive.
We must lynch Talismania today.
If talis is a miller, then we are already lost.
Tonight the vigilante must shoot Zephirdd
We will have two kills, they will have one.
Xsebt, after this your play will become pivotal, for I will likely be dead.
VisceraEyes,
Toadesstern,
You will carry the weight of the performance on your shoulders.
The show must go on.
For those questioning my motives,
I will tell you.
In order to give awe-inspiring performances,
The puppeteers of my order bind the souls of great actors to their puppets.
I had searched out the greatest actors of the world, men and women whose acting bordered on the supernatural
Whose performances drove audiences to tears
Whose performances drove audiences mad.
But still I needed more.
Then I heard tales of great crime lords who were able to dominate entire societies with their acting prowess.
Thus the puppeteer came to liquidia, pursuing these rumors
These whispers
And they are true.
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It's bring your DT to school day.
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Let me respond to this bit:
[quote=Lazermonkey]Long post on why he must be miller.
Point 1 is purely based on WIFOM and is thus disregarded.
Point 2 is such bad logic from his side (assuming that he is miller...). For example you say that people who was suspicious or voted you on D1 or D2 can't be your scum mates. LOL. You weren't close to getting lynched neither D1 nor D2 so why bring that up? Also I don't really see any telling with people wanting to lynch you right know. If there is any time you would want to bus, wouldn't that be when you got a red check?
Point 3 is WIFOM once again.
Point 4 is WIFOM.
Point 5 is bad logic once again. It's not like you were the only reason for Toad to out Xsebt. Also arguing against someone who had ''guessed'' the name of Toads character correctly wouldn't look very good neither.[/quote]
Point 1 is NOT wifom. It's the truth. There's no one in this game right now (marv doesn't count since he was originally BioSC) who would make a better GF choice than me, if I'm scum. To say otherwise is to suggest that I've played the entire game with the hope of being red-checked or something, and that that was the plan from pre-game, when role decisions were presumably made. Does that make sense to you?
Point 2 is just to show that there's no clear scum strategy involved in my play, or any of my interactions with anyone or their interactions with me.
Point 3 is absolutely NOT wifom. You can't wifom meta. I can't just turn on a switch that says "ok act like town". If I could, I would, you know, act like town when I'm scum. Read Bang Bang 2. Read Pick Your Poison. Read I Can't Believe It's not Themed. I don't play like town in those games, and I'm not town in those games. I'm sorry but I don't have the power to magically alter my meta. Very few people do.
Point 4 is not really wifom either. I don't kill the people who are helping with the mislynch I'm pushing if I'm scum.
On Point 5 you're sort of right. But the point remains that I don't put in the effort to get a confirmed DT in the game if I'm scum. That doesn't help my team.
__________
I guess bottom line you can always invent a reason for why anything I write could be written by scum. Why my meta could be different, why I could have wanted goon over godfather, why I've been acting like I have. But at the end of the day to put all of that together is to assume that the most complex answer is right. It never is. It's always the simplest explanation. And the simplest explanation is that I'm miller.
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Format fail
On August 11 2012 05:53 talismania wrote:Let me respond to this bit: Show nested quote +Long post on why he must be miller.
Point 1 is purely based on WIFOM and is thus disregarded.
Point 2 is such bad logic from his side (assuming that he is miller...). For example you say that people who was suspicious or voted you on D1 or D2 can't be your scum mates. LOL. You weren't close to getting lynched neither D1 nor D2 so why bring that up? Also I don't really see any telling with people wanting to lynch you right know. If there is any time you would want to bus, wouldn't that be when you got a red check?
Point 3 is WIFOM once again.
Point 4 is WIFOM.
Point 5 is bad logic once again. It's not like you were the only reason for Toad to out Xsebt. Also arguing against someone who had ''guessed'' the name of Toads character correctly wouldn't look very good neither. Point 1 is NOT wifom. It's the truth. There's no one in this game right now (marv doesn't count since he was originally BioSC) who would make a better GF choice than me, if I'm scum. To say otherwise is to suggest that I've played the entire game with the hope of being red-checked or something, and that that was the plan from pre-game, when role decisions were presumably made. Does that make sense to you? Point 2 is just to show that there's no clear scum strategy involved in my play, or any of my interactions with anyone or their interactions with me. Point 3 is absolutely NOT wifom. You can't wifom meta. I can't just turn on a switch that says "ok act like town". If I could, I would, you know, act like town when I'm scum. Read Bang Bang 2. Read Pick Your Poison. Read I Can't Believe It's not Themed. I don't play like town in those games, and I'm not town in those games. I'm sorry but I don't have the power to magically alter my meta. Very few people do. Point 4 is not really wifom either. I don't kill the people who are helping with the mislynch I'm pushing if I'm scum. On Point 5 you're sort of right. But the point remains that I don't put in the effort to get a confirmed DT in the game if I'm scum. That doesn't help my team. __________ I guess bottom line you can always invent a reason for why anything I write could be written by scum. Why my meta could be different, why I could have wanted goon over godfather, why I've been acting like I have. But at the end of the day to put all of that together is to assume that the most complex answer is right. It never is. It's always the simplest explanation. And the simplest explanation is that I'm miller.
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I can confirm Dropula being DT. I am Harry Crane.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
i wanna lynch zeph
##Vote: Zephirdd
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Are we going to assume Zeph is a miller?
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Four millers is too many. Can't understand who the fuck the scum are if CD is not in there. Can't understand why scum fake claim DT in this position either though. Seems like they would have to do very little to get rid of me.
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I don't know what the fuck is going on here, but I think one of our DTs is a liar, and possibly using some scum info to pass it off. I mean, right now the role list sounds more like Conspiracy Theory mafia. I know it's nuts to WIFOM the host, but what the hell.
Either we believe this setup is absurd as hell, or we see how today's lynch goes and start looking at cases. I usually don't trust anyone, but starting now, I go into paranoia mode.
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oh well I guess they want to guarantee zeph's lynch tomorrow after I flip miller or just win the game outright during the night.
I think best play here is lynch zephirdd, zeph flips town. Check Lazer. Then we have two confirmed scum.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
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##Vote: Zephirdd
Oh wait can I play too?
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EPT
