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On January 28 2011 17:04 Barundar wrote:Show nested quote +Clues help, but it seems so far these clues have a few interpretations and the flip thing hardly comes into play after one kill sooo, keep an eye on your favourite people! I know I've got my eyes on people, but no one has really done anything, but we can't exactly wait can we... You seem to be writing in a very non commital way, softly pushing for RoL. Your post comes off as wishy washy. Mind posting some of the people you are keeping track off and why? Personally I disagree that we can't wait with lynching one of the potential deadliest townies. Regarding tube he was just as inactive as this in HPmafia, he managed to not get modkilled for like 3 days, with 1 post and 1 vote per day, and not a word on mafia IRC. Tube if you really want to play mafia here, start posting, or you got another modkill and a ban comming your way...
just watching the more well known names, cause they are dangerous fellows if they plant zee seeds of evil in your mind!
of course im not committing to RoL that's the whole point. If I thought he was worth killing then I would vote for him, I just dont think people should dismiss others so easily as well.
I'm confused as to why you label him as a townie then you say we shouldn't wait to lynch him. Was that a scum slip?
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Where do I label him as townie? 
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On January 28 2011 17:11 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 17:04 Barundar wrote:Clues help, but it seems so far these clues have a few interpretations and the flip thing hardly comes into play after one kill sooo, keep an eye on your favourite people! I know I've got my eyes on people, but no one has really done anything, but we can't exactly wait can we... You seem to be writing in a very non commital way, softly pushing for RoL. Your post comes off as wishy washy. Mind posting some of the people you are keeping track off and why? Personally I disagree that we can't wait with lynching one of the potential deadliest townies. Regarding tube he was just as inactive as this in HPmafia, he managed to not get modkilled for like 3 days, with 1 post and 1 vote per day, and not a word on mafia IRC. Tube if you really want to play mafia here, start posting, or you got another modkill and a ban comming your way... just watching the more well known names, cause they are dangerous fellows if they plant zee seeds of evil in your mind!
You dodged my question on posting a list. While one of the more well known players will probably be mafia for balance, it's usually a ton easier to find their newb team mates, and even experienced players will screw up in the long run - the fact they are even alive in end game is scummy.
of course im not committing to RoL that's the whole point. If I thought he was worth killing then I would vote for him, I just dont think people should dismiss others so easily as well.
What do you think of him then?
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On January 28 2011 13:38 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 13:07 kitaman27 wrote:On January 28 2011 12:56 GMarshal wrote:
Hence I think we should pressure and, if we don't get satisfactory results, lynch them. For now, I'm going to vote Coagulation , I may switch over to another equaly inactive player later, but for now Coagulation's pro inactive attitude seems highly suspicious to me. Despite me poking at coag, I still think we should focus the lynch between nemesis and RoL rather than spread it out between a bunch of people. RoL has been laying low relative to how he started and nemesis hasn't really defended himself adequately either. I'm more concerned about RoL laying low than Nemesis' clue connections. We can analyze how the clues connect to Nem all we want, but it's very strange that RoL was reasonably active for a day leading up to Kav being chosen as mayor, then disappeared off the radar. With that in mind, time to take a closer look at our possibly-friendly neighborhood RebirthOfLegenD. IMPORTANT STATS: Posts in thread: 37 Posts Day 1: 29 Posts Day 2: 8 (At this rate, he'll have 17 or so by the end of the day cycle.) This is an interesting thing, which I just mentioned. He's been significantly more inactive Day 2 than Day 1. This could be attributed to a number of things (he's not trying to run a mayoral campaign, everyone's a little less active day 2, etc.), but really, it's worth noticing. It by itself means nothing, though, lets look at more stuff. PROFILE: He has no photo, so that's easy. Let's look at his public profile: Show nested quote +Welcome to the war
"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference."
"What happens to a dream deferred?
Does it dry up
like a raisin in the sun?
Or fester like a sore--
And then run?
Does it stink like rotten meat?
Or crust and sugar over--
like a syrupy sweet?
Maybe it just sags
like a heavy load.
Or does it explode?"
Page 150 of auto ban list
Lag was just temp banned for 1 week by Hot_Bid.
That account was created on 2009-03-04 00:41:24 and had 16 posts.
Reason: I don't know who you are. I don't know what you want. If you want to troll, I can tell you I have no patience for that. But what I do have are a very particular set of skills; skills I have acquired over a very long moderation career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you. If you stop the stupidity now, that'll be the end of it. I will not look for you, I will not pursue you. But if you don't, in one week, I will look for you, I will find you, and I will ban you. And his quote: "Be a man, Become a Legend. TL Mafia Forum Ask for access!!" Nice plug of the mafia forum there, and I was unable to find any clues pointing to that. To his public profile though... People have mentioned the "You can't run" possibly referring to MP running away, I'm not sure I buy it. It's a very very tenuous connection at best. That said, I'm not sure Node/LSB wanted to make the clues as obvious as they seem to be about Nemesis, so... perhaps. Moving on to the really important bit: ANALYSIS OF HIS POSTS: Show nested quote +On January 23 2011 18:11 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
hey! I will run for mayor too.
My platform is only that I will destroy the souls of mafia.
That is all. His first post after the game has really gotten started. I can't tell if this is a subtle critique of Kav and kita's silly mayoral platforms, or whether he actually was serious from the get-go. Regardless, he gets more serious about his platform quickly: Show nested quote +On January 23 2011 23:06 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On January 23 2011 22:56 Jackal58 wrote:On January 23 2011 18:13 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
also why does everyone keep talking about Qatol? Hes not even in the game o.O? Pffff. And you're running for mayor? Do try to keep up my good sir. I haven't actually read most of the thread yet. Kav is a decent and level headed townie, although I don't remember ever seeing him as mafia. I tend to be much more erratic of a player but I do get results whatever we choose I am fine with. Oh wait nevermind. A soft endorsement of Kav. Going off of meta, which I agree with in terms of Kav being a good player and a reasonable dude. I'm sure he gets serious about his candidacy at some point... Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 09:40 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Do I vote here? I don't see a thread so I will assume yes. I will vote for Kavdragon I suppose.
##Vote: Kavdragon Not yet... Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 18:18 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
TMM2, Insane Mafia, Merc Mafia would be accurate to my current play style. All my previous games as mafia would not be accurately representative of my current skill. If you want an overview of my play style I will just tell you.
As a town I am generally more aggressive, while as mafia I am more conservative with what I do. Although I think the play styles would be harder to tell apart, I think a distinct difference which I know I used to make and work to rectify is that as mafia I will be more focused on a few individuals while as town I will focus on many. The reason being is as mafia its harder to create a fake case that you can believe in and believing the viability of what you are telling people is the most key part to any game as mafia. When you are lying you have to know your story has as few holes and logical inconsistencies as possible. If you look at Merc mafia and read how I played I made sure not to mimic previous play styles and played hyper aggressive, although that could be attributed to the fact that Annul/LD teaming up would of lead to our demise. If you read what I wrote from my perspective I was much more coherent than Annul and my points kind of stuck together and I rarely attempted to make huge jumps. Only at the end did it become much harder to keep my story but that was due to the complexity of the game and the hassle that contracts created.
I think the biggest tell I have as mafia is my behavior on AIM. I generally obsess over mafia games and read it for hours and hours each day until I die. As town I tend to post whenever I feel like it but as mafia I only post when I feel it is necessary. IE: I will feign inactivity to avoid commenting on a situation, or make sure I wait until its too late to reverse a stupid band wagon. Usually if I do the latter I will purposely try to divert the lynch to a team mate that way if either one of us dies it makes the other look better via wifom.
Now as far as this game goes, I am honestly just tired and I know this game is going to be a fucking shitstorm if you guys haven't learned ANYTHING from previous games. If you took NOTHING from Salem, if you took NOTHING from PYP3 then this game is going to be fucking gay as shit and we are going to get RAPED. Let me explain why.
In those games people flipped and eventually you kind of got an idea if someone was full of shit after 3 mislynches, but in this you don't know if something is a mislynch so you can have one asshole doing clue and behavioral analysis killing town left and right and you don't know if hes right or wrong. If everyone is focusing on that one person to champion them to victory you are going to doom us. Especially if the mayor is mafia. The ONLY way to confirm if any mafia have died is with 2 census reports. One today on mafia count and one somewhere down the line. The problem with that is if the mafia gets mayor we have no idea if we are on the right track and could easily get manipulated into having another game where we have 9/10 mislynches.
Here is how we counter this. Everyone fucking analyze everything. Do not EVER let one person do all the work, to win this game the town has to keep analyzing. Everyone has to analyze and we have to decide what has the most merit as a collective. If you have a few people doing analysis we will lose in this game faster and harder then in any other set up. Seriously guys. This isn't a fucking boot camp, this isn't some let us baby you set up. In this set up if you are lazy, if you fuck up, you lose us the game. This game requires an effort from EVERY townie to actually win and fuck if we get a mafia mayor then we are fucked. If any single person seems to be trying to take control of the town and who we lynch that is suspicious because channeling our lynches on the thoughts of one person who we can't prove there worth is going to make us die.
Now to business. I ain't fucking mafia. If you make me the mayor I will do everything I can to ensure that we stay organized and have EVERYONE doing analysis. If you aren't going to put work into analysis then you need to get the fuck out of the game the express way, via death. Anyone who is scared to contribute is most likely mafia not wanting to be suspicious and if you refuse to contribute you should be considered top of the list suspicious. Now onto why I think the other candidates suck.
DoctorHelvetica is okay and organizing the town but he ALWAYS takes a too central role and runs around in circles chasing his own tail until the mafia decide to put him out of his misery. Look at Salem. If this game is played like Salem where everyone just agrees on what one person says we are going to lose, and we are going to lose hard. DoctorHelvetica has never proven himself able to handle the town without putting too much focus on himself. The worst part about this is his town play that I have seen for mayor would play so hard against us, and if hes mafia he just has to do the same shit and keep the town tunneled and making bad decisions and we are boned. DoctorHelvetica will be an EXTREMELY dangerous mayor to have one way or the other and he is not worth the risk.
Kavdragon I feel a lot better about. He's a pretty level headed guy in the games I played with him and as he showed in Merc Mafia hes not above manipulating the shit out of people. Although he is a nice guy and I don't know if he could be direct enough to yell at people and get people killed when it comes down to it. Can you berate someone until they contribute and do what you want? Can you do the analysis and the follow through to take down scum? I know Kavdragon is decent but I don't think he has the experience like I do for this position. Although I don't believe he is mafia. I haven't seen him play a game as mafia yet and he seems like the cautious type who wouldn't put himself out there without experience. What I mean by that is if Kav was mafia I think he would play more layed back because hes not as familiar with what to do, while if he was town he would be more outgoing and confident in his play and run for mayor.
Those are my current thoughts on the election. I obviously think I am better qualified than anyone else for the position and I think I am our best bet to victory. Overall though the best chance for victory is in the towns collective efforts. This is the game where all the mafia has to do is shut down the active contributors and win because we are in the dark. However if the whole town is active that plan doesn't exist for them. The only way to win this game is through overwhelming effort and activity. Lets the last game I play show that TL town's have learned something from bootcamp, let this game show that even when a game forces the town to use every ounce of cunning we have to win that we can step up and do it.
Let this be the game where the town overcame the mafia. BOOM. There we go. This is his real platform here. The most important thing here is, he tells us his playstyle. I've only played a couple games with him, but he plays pretty much like he said, so he is telling us the truth here. Not a very scummy move at all, giving the town the key with which to catch and lynch you. He goes on to talk about metastrategy regarding the other candidates. Here, I think he sells Dr. H a little bit short, (I think Dr. H is a pretty good player and a decent scumhunter) but he's very clear about what he wants the plan for town to be: He's not taking a central role, all faith is not placed in him, he's just playing the role almost of cheerleader, getting town to get psyched about catching scum, getting them all involved. That's not a scummy move at all, in fact that's the opposite. A scum mayor would be much more like "trust in me guys, I'll save you!", then lead town in circles while mafia ate them alive. RoL wants town to win, that much is clear from this post. He disappears for a while after this post, which is kind of strange. I guess his apathy got the better of him... He comes back after most people have abandoned his campaign and tries to save it with a few one liners that outline good strategy, but in a really lazy, half-assed way. Then: Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 13:39 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:I don't believe in a mayor centered town obviously. That is stupid. I am going to try to encourage everyone to contribute and analyze because that is the only way we are going to win this game. We need to make people talk and make them slip up if they are not town aligned. The only reason I want to be mayor is so I have a longer period of time where I can try and make people contribute and attempt to be a voice of reason. So Amber, how are things? I find it interesting that you quick response my prod when I know you do 4 day work weeks at home and somehow don't really contribute much besides responding to that  Anyway, I am going to girlfriends for a few hours. When I get back you will all get more. This is the core of his platform, and rehashes the above long post into a much more cohesive idea: Mayor-centric towns lose games. This is true. Also, he calls out Amber, which ended up being inconsequential - so far. Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 13:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I like your reasoning Kav all up until the bit about the mason's. By the mason joining with the mayor it is creating a circle so to speak which I believe is what will do us in. We can't have all our ideas coming from 2-3 people. I want everyone contributing and by creating a circle you destroy possibility of that. I don't approve of any plan that puts powerful people and powerful roles together when they can't be confirmed. It leads to players looking for guidance from those who they perceive as "knowing more".
Mason's are an interesting role. The way I'd recommend playing it would be to try to recruit those who you think are town and treat everything they say as if you think they are mafia. IN PMland people are more likely to slip up and say something stupid. They are also more inclined to try to hard manipulate someone through PM's. From a mafia perspective it is MUCH safer than manipulating people publicly. Anyway, the mason role needs to be constantly vigilant and never too trusting.
I will switch my vote back too kav. Good honest debate here, discussing how the mason role works. Again, so far I haven't seen anything that's triggering my scumdar. I could go into Day 2, but not enough has been posted yet. CONCLUSION: It seems the only real case against RoL is from his inactivity Day 2 + one really tenuous clue connection. He's been outlining some very helpful practices town should be following, hasn't contradicted himself yet, and hasn't done anything obviously scummy. The only weird thing is his apathy. He's come out and posted great stuff, but very sporadically, and his heart doesn't really seem to be in this game like it has in the past. For that reason, I'm pegging him as Green, and a very apathetic green. What RoL should do is try and recapture some of the energy of past games, and get his ass in gear to provide this high quality analysis he says is coming.
Just so you know, you hit this 100%. I point this out and I know you can't trust what I say until the game is over but this was a very very good analysis imo. I like that you try to take into account exactly what I am thinking at the time and not just attempting to reinterpret something I post. A good player will rarely slip up in individuals posts and the best way to figure out there alignment is to look at what the general goal behind everything they say is and try to figure out what is going on with them.
A lot of the time I am inactive is because of work. Today I worked 10-7 then hung out with my girlfriend until 1, so I was gone most of the day. The extreme spam in the thread makes reading hard. Based off this post though I would wager you are town. Superb analysis and I am actually impressed.
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On January 28 2011 17:17 Barundar wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 17:11 Divinek wrote:On January 28 2011 17:04 Barundar wrote:Clues help, but it seems so far these clues have a few interpretations and the flip thing hardly comes into play after one kill sooo, keep an eye on your favourite people! I know I've got my eyes on people, but no one has really done anything, but we can't exactly wait can we... You seem to be writing in a very non commital way, softly pushing for RoL. Your post comes off as wishy washy. Mind posting some of the people you are keeping track off and why? Personally I disagree that we can't wait with lynching one of the potential deadliest townies. Regarding tube he was just as inactive as this in HPmafia, he managed to not get modkilled for like 3 days, with 1 post and 1 vote per day, and not a word on mafia IRC. Tube if you really want to play mafia here, start posting, or you got another modkill and a ban comming your way... just watching the more well known names, cause they are dangerous fellows if they plant zee seeds of evil in your mind! You dodged my question on posting a list. While one of the more well known players will probably be mafia for balance, it's usually a ton easier to find their newb team mates, and even experienced players will screw up in the long run - the fact they are even alive in end game is scummy. Show nested quote +of course im not committing to RoL that's the whole point. If I thought he was worth killing then I would vote for him, I just dont think people should dismiss others so easily as well. What do you think of him then?
if i post the list that devoids my entire point of the list right now. It's not like i make crazy spreadsheets or anything like some people, i justttt remember
I think RoL is just another dude coasting along, hell he's probably even a blue but I dont really see him as too mafia like atm.
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On January 28 2011 01:28 papapanda wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 27 2011 23:48 Barundar wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2011 23:42 papapanda wrote:
so siN is a vet? (or SK teehee:D)
Although i doubt bum's role(and brownbear, a little bit), his clue analysis seems legit...RoL is basically only stating that bum is abusing clue-->so bum is mafia and clue are more simple(?) than the way bum is analyzing them.
Bleh this is why i dislike the clues, please don't lynch anyone just because of clues!!!!
Wait so who of them do you think is innocent and who are you suspecting here? First, bum's last minute mayor vote randomize try was suspicious, as many people already pointed out. Also he is dropping a ton of pressure on RoL with the clues. Second, brownbear was kinda acting scummy when he agreed to bum's idea imediately. Do you guys realise that bb switched from RoL-->Kav and then back with the following reason: Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 02:43 BrownBear wrote:
##Unvote: Kavdragon
##Vote: RebirthOfLegenD
Gotta go with my gut on this one. Lastly its RoL, who, as i see it, is not responding with any logical reasoning, and is instead only counter accusing bum(where i read somewhere that it is a trait of mafias:D)Conclusion: bum is suspicious based on rash actions; might need to keep our heads up. RoL has some obvious clues(that i REALLY do not want to go by)but is also acting a bit suspicious, again, I would keep a close eye on... I think bum and RoL both have greater influence over the town BUT... until further info... BB has been jumping all over the place and backing off real fast when he feels threatened, and, perhaps most outstandingly, doesn't have any legit reason behind most of his actions. Right now I am "going with my guts" on my vote on BB for lynch(not because of clues, i would like to point out, but because of his actions). *haha, unsure of some gramatical structure of english, too much SAT classes recently my head is a bit messed up><
I read this and before I forget I wanted to respond. Read what I wrote. I made sure I wasn't accusing bum of mafia off the bat. I would never do that until I am completely finished with an analysis and since I haven't read his posts yet I would only point out some things I find suspicious. I feel I made that CLEAR with the post he is referring to. The content of that post says that I find the way in which bum is using clues to be suspicious and mention how I believe it fits the profile of just how mafia would be playing this game. Clue Based Aggression. A townie will try to link clues to players and a mafia will try to link players to clues. The abstract way Bum decided to use clues to capitalize on my mild inactivity wreaked of the latter method of clue usage. I wanted to point that out and it wasn't OMGUS.
To just say what I actually think about Bum so far it would be just off that analysis of me which is sad that some people thought held weight. The behavior aspect of his analysis on me was inaccurate and wrong. Brownbear had it right. Since I thought I was being pretty transparent I find it odd someone I would consider decent would pursue such an odd line of interpretation. Only when I looked at his clue analysis was it a big T_T moment as I explained earlier.
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I see, thanks for explaining.
Putting myself in RoL's shoe i think this might have been my thought also and i feel like there is no way to really counter argue against a clue, making it wasy for mafia to abuse clues
I will also withdraw my vote from bb and put it on nemesis.
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And now it looks like you are just defending yourself rol. You are giving out general helpful hints, praising people defending you, and putting your story together. But where is the contribution?
It makes me more than just a little uneasy that papapanda simply switches votes when questioned, and put it on someone else without explanation.
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The reason im switching votes is because im guessing no one else is voting for bb and there are clues pointing at nemesis also. RoL is not off my "look out" list if thats what you mean, i was just thanking him for explaining. Plus i was complaining about clues of how imba they are.
RoL has nothing to do with why i switched vote...
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On January 28 2011 20:37 papapanda wrote:
The reason im switching votes is because im guessing no one else is voting for bb and there are clues pointing at nemesis also. RoL is not off my "look out" list if thats what you mean, i was just thanking him for explaining. Plus i was complaining about clues of how imba they are.
RoL has nothing to do with why i switched vote...
Well it's a big plus that you post your reason without hesitation
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On January 28 2011 13:31 LunarDestiny wrote:My input on activeness, totally my opinion. Version 1.01 Over activeSameUnder activeNo color = don't know/not enough games with/forgot BOLD = VERY- Amber[LighT] (13)
- Beneather (13)
- BrownBear (31)
- bumatlarge (34)
- Coagulation (9)
- CubEdIn (26)
- darmousseh (48)
- Divinek (5)
- DoctorHelvetica (21) / d3_crescentia (4)
- Eti307 (4)
- GMarshal (22)
- ilovejonn (31)
- Impervious (13)
- Jackal58 (31)
- Kavdragon (96)
- Kenpachi (13)
- kitaman27 (38)
- LunarDestiny (66)
- Meapak_Ziphh (36)
- Mr. Wiggles (52)
- Mr.Zergling (7)
- Nemesis (19)
- Nfi (2) / Barundar (10)
- OriginalName (9)
- Pandain (9) / deconduo (4)
- papapanda (12)
- RebirthOfLeGenD (37)
- SiNiquity (20)
- TheAldo (6)
- tube (3)
- zerroth (10)
[/green]
What are you basing this on? If it's post counts from other games bear in mind that I've died on night 1 twice. Not sure this list provides anything other than a distraction.
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Sorry guys if I didn't post enough in the last 2days. A lot has been going on in rl and between work and that I didn't have the time to closely follow this thread.
That said, I will be much more active this evening/weekend
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Good morning everyone.
First thing
On January 28 2011 14:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
##Vote Mr. Wiggles
XD
So far I have to agree with Kav that I'm suspicious of RebirthOfLegend, but I don't think the evidence is nearly as strong as it is for nemesis, and I also suspect RoL is actually a SK based on what I said in my previous post.
Pages 46,47,48 (while I was sleeping) seem a lot like arguing over inactivity and a ton of back and forth accusations rather than analysis for the most part.
Maybe someone will find something else interesting. The coagulation part seems useful, I have no clue who that person on the pictures in his profile is though. Maybe someone knows who that is?
I will still be voting for nemesis as the clues seem very persuasive. Unless someone comes up with something better in the next 10 hours. I'm out of luck on finding clues.
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Mr. Zergling:
+ Show Spoiler +On January 21 2011 11:25 Mr.Zergling wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2011 11:24 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
How does one run for mayoral election? By waiting till the game starts lol, I think it will all be explained then On January 22 2011 01:05 Mr.Zergling wrote:
woot On January 23 2011 14:54 Mr.Zergling wrote:
/confirm
Im waiting on my mayor vote till there is more than one candidate lol On January 24 2011 14:46 Mr.Zergling wrote:
Still no other mayor candidates? On January 25 2011 04:33 Mr.Zergling wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 03:36 LSB wrote:
Pandain and DoctorH have asked to be replaced.
Don't worry, there won't be modkills this game.
Edit: Hopefully Oh damn On January 26 2011 12:41 Mr.Zergling wrote:
Well, that was certainly a kick off...
Really weird not having flipping, I forgot there wasn't and came on just to see if we got a red xD That is every single one of his posts this game. Now, obviously I haven't been very active myself, but it is tough to come into a game 25 pages in. However, I'm pretty sure I've contributed a bit more than he has, and I will be posting more that I have caught up somewhat. In addition you have this as I said earlier: + Show Spoiler +
Clue:
Cue the clash of lightning.
Play the roar of thunder.
And make sure there is a shower of rain.
It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening.
I should explain.
Mr.Zergling's Profile:
Favorite Movie scene:
Cue, play, movie scene
There's no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going.
There's no knowing where we're rowing
Or which way the river's flowing.
Is it raining?
Is it snowing?
Is a hurricane a blowing?
Thunder, lightning, rain
Not a speck of light is showing
so the danger must be growing.
Are the fires of hell a glowing?
Is the grisly reaper mowing?
Yes! The danger must be growing
Scary Film/Bad Dream
For the rowers keep on rowing.
And they're certainly not showing
any signs that they are slowing!
Not only that, but this had been pointed out twice before: + Show Spoiler +On January 24 2011 12:53 Kavdragon wrote:A couple of things... The song lyrics are from a song called "Retrace" by anberlin http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AnberlinThis would fit with the "I'm writting in reverse" theme that was in the night post. Show nested quote +Cue the clash of lightning.
Play the roar of thunder.
And make sure there is a shower of rain.
It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. From Mr Zerglings's profile + Show Spoiler +Favorite Movie scene:
There's no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going.
There's no knowing where we're rowing
Or which way the river's flowing.
Is it raining?
Is it snowing?
Is a hurricane a blowing?
Not a speck of light is showing
so the danger must be growing.
Are the fires of hell a glowing?
Is the grisly reaper mowing?
Yes! The danger must be growing
For the rowers keep on rowing.
And they're certainly not showing
any signs that they are slowing! Nothing huge, but something worth pointing out. On January 26 2011 13:50 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +First Part
Cue the clash of lightning.
Play the roar of thunder.
And make sure there is a shower of rain.
It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening.
I should explain. Mr. Zergling + Show Spoiler +Favorite Movie scene:
There's no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going.
There's no knowing where we're rowing
Or which way the river's flowing.
Is it raining?
Is it snowing?
Is a hurricane a blowing?
Not a speck of light is showing
so the danger must be growing.
Are the fires of hell a glowing?
Is the grisly reaper mowing?
Yes! The danger must be growing
For the rowers keep on rowing.
And they're certainly not showing
any signs that they are slowing! Kavdragon pointed this out. From a movie, obviously, but it's about a rowboat (life is but a dream )in some form a of precipitation. Closest I could find relating to a movie. Also he has the poem "The Raven" which is probably a long shot, but "just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening. I should explain." could be something. A lot of people have videos, but none of them are too relevant. After Original Name, this seems fairly strong, and I looked hard, but couldn't find much on this part for anyone else. I don't think Kav really likes me now lol. Here. Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 08:30 bumatlarge wrote:On January 26 2011 08:21 Jackal58 wrote:On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote:A scum mayor is the worst scenario by far, regardless of anything else. This means we will never get information on town numbers. False-claims will be rampant, and it will turn into a clue-crapshoot. I want to avoid this at all cost. For this reason, I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. It's just way to strong an opportunity to pass up. If we are luky, dr.H was the mafia claim, but seeing as how he had relatively no votes, I don't think this is a viable outcome to put your hopes in. I feel we should RNG our mayor :/ as right now we have a 50% shot at picking a scum mayor, or we can take a <25% chance at one. I'd like to hear thoughts. On a BG plan + Show Spoiler +We want to use the census as long as possible because it's basically 1/2 of a coroner everyday. I've been thinking this through and I believe the best option is to splice 4 and 5. Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards.
Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles.
Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets.
Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no.
Option 5: Mayoral preference: Mayor picks his bodyguards, they accept.
Upside: Kav/RoL are both good players, can probably select two greens.
Downside: Kav/RoL aren't infallible, scum mayor can basically screw town over with this by intentionally selecting blues (bluesniping) and making it look accidental when they die, gives all the power to the mayor, something we want to avoid.
Verdict: I don't like it, despite Kav kind of softly pushing for it. I'd vote against this plan. We have only 1 veteran claim. We should tell him to refresh the thread to avoid multiple claims. He will be first choice. Yes, mafia can claim it, but I'm not entirely sure mafia wants to which I will get to in a minute. The next BG will be chosen by Mayor. He will make the person is believes is most likely a vanilla town. If he is scum, then we can't be sure what he will do, but a mafia BG leaves a nice SK target on his back. So this would ultimately lead to how badly the other factions want the mayor to die. With 30 people in the game, I believe there are several set-ups. 5 mafia, 2-3SKs. 6-7 mafia, 1-2 SKs 7-8 mafia, No SKs (8 seems highly unlikely) With a rough 25% of players being non-town, BG chosen by mayor has a good chance of being town. With more mafia then veterans, statistically mafia will be more likely to be 2nd BG. I believe SK has no real purpose in trying to kill mayor within first 3 days. As a lone-wolf, he benefits from information brought to town, and he can blend well until medics and vets start getting counted. He can't really fake why he survived a hit if a mafia about to get lynched accuses him of being an SK. Ultimately, SK wants mayor to state how many mafia, SKs, one other blue role to keep his clam safe. SK should be preoccupied with DT and mafia sniping. For this reason, I do not like censusing DTs til later on, so SKs won't feel safe enough to hit mayor. Mafia then will take a stab at non-townie mayor very early on. Medics should take a high-priority in protecting BGs, and if both die and mayor is alive, I don't think you should take it off him. On January 16 2011 15:03 Node wrote:
Mayor
You are the elected leader of the town. Elections will take place on day 1. When elected, you will publicly select two bodyguards to protect you for the rest of the game. While bodyguards are alive, you cannot be targeted by night hits or the roleblocker. Role checks on you will return “Mayor”. Don't think that's an option. What isn't? RNG mayor? There are ways, as in everyone posts a number between 1-2, and we add them up. The probability of scum landing a mayor this way is miniscule, and attempting to tamper with it will most likely get screwed. Here I'll start. 2 I cannot change it, and now d3 will be our choice until the next person posts a number. If we set a deadline, mafia can't wait til the last minute. Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 08:37 bumatlarge wrote:
Let's just see how many people do it. Current number is 3, and numbers don't count after 8:00 est which is in 1&1/2 hours. GMarshal will be our mayor! :D I gave an idea to determine mayor randomly off the top of my head. You are really gonna drill me for anRNG plan to demonstrate how a mayor would be picked? I knew I would have to extend the time if it was to hold any water, so if you legitimately think I was trying to sway it away from you in that time, I don't know what to say. Hope you are gonna post more then this if you do an analysis. I wasn't there early enough to give my opinion that 2 candidates weren't enough to mean anything, but I stand by that. And yet, he has not responded to it, In fact, both those posts went completely ignored. I find this curious. All the discussion is between the RoL and Nemesis clues, (which are pretty damning as well I admit) but this has been passed by. If he is scum, his buddies are purposely trying to divert attention onto RoL/Nemesis and trying to not draw attention to the clues against him. In summary -Lurker -Significant clue points towards him -Hasn't responded to the clues -Clues have gone ignored by other people as well
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EBWOP:
He also voted for kav and then switched to RoL without giving any reasoning behind either votes. Wishy washy voting is usually a decent scumtell.
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On January 29 2011 01:09 darmousseh wrote:
I will still be voting for nemesis as the clues seem very persuasive. Unless someone comes up with something better in the next 10 hours. I'm out of luck on finding clues.
I disagree with the conclusions made by Bumatlarge in his analysis of Nemesis, so this still feels like a clue lynch.
I'm going to be traveling a good deal of today, but I'll try to get in better candidate for lynch. The problem for me right now is that I'm not convinced that RoL or Nemesis are scum. Nemesis' play is very similar to his normal town, which I admit is a little scummy. RoL looks more scummy because he's not contributing a ton, but as has been pointed out this could very easily be an apathetic townie, and I'm willing to leave him alone for now. The person who looks the most scummy right now is actually Beneather [facepalm, I know]. I'll explain why later, but I don't want to push for the lynch of my BG, at least not yet.
Shortened version:
FoS RoL, but I'm not willing to lynch him yet.
Nemesis' lynch is based mostly off of clues, something I disagree with. Looking at his posts make me think he's town, but I could obviously be wrong.
FoS Beneather, but not willing to lynch a BG without a very strong case.
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let me make this clear
profiling>analysis>clues in terms of where I am FoSing RoL. Not in general what is stronger. but for RoL in this situation. The profile is for my belief that mafia will take a stab at running for mayor everytime. This isn't based on the metagame or anything, its strictly that this set-up makes this obvious. The analysis comes next for the reason RoL is apathetic. As if he needs to run. I think if he was town with the same mediocre drive, we would not have run. (dont get me wrong. we needed candidates but we are assuming candidates would provide above average activity). Clues are last. I think they are much weaker then what has been found on other people. But these clues are right. becuase RoL is red. Ive looked for other connections and this is all I found. The clues arent confirming the profile, the profile iconfirms the clues.
I have no comment on RoLs comparison of BB and myself.
BB sees it as analysis>clues>profile, if i am not mistaken. I think we all know BB is prone to give people a chance 
nem is a much weaker, cles could be off, and he jst may be among the hordes of lurking townies. Maybe we have a lot blues. I think its likely given how mafia/sk favored this setup is.
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On January 29 2011 02:54 bumatlarge wrote:I have no comment on RoLs comparison of BB and myself. BB sees it as analysis>clues>profile, if i am not mistaken. I think we all know BB is prone to give people a chance
analysis>profile>clues, actually.
And it's because you're all too damn adorable
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On January 29 2011 03:19 BrownBear wrote:And it's because you're all too damn adorable
^^Flattery. Obv scum here.
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On January 29 2011 03:22 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2011 03:19 BrownBear wrote:And it's because you're all too damn adorable ^^Flattery. Obv scum here.
Oh shit, I've been found out! Whatever will I do?
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EPT
